Tag: 1000 Guineas

1000 Guineas Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

In February we advised taking the 16-1 about Ihtimal for the 1000 Guineas and she is now a top priced 10-1 for the Newmarket classic. Our regular readers will know that she has been a star filly for this column, providing us with four wins in her last five races.

I first noticed her running on gamely at Royal Ascot last summer and she has done nothing but improve ever since. The reason for her still being so attractively priced for the Guineas is probably her third place behind Chriselliam and Rizeena on her final start of the season. I don’t think De Sousa was at his best that day, riding her well off the pace and she could never land a blow at rivals that were still quickening.

Unlike favourite Rizeena, Ihtimal has already won over a mile and has the Epsom Oaks in her sights as well as the 1000 Guineas. I suppose it is easy to be sceptical about the value of the form in Dubai but she was hugely impressive in the UAE Oaks. She absolutely pulverised her rivals and is going to arrive fit and fancied next month.

Clive Brittain is one of life’s great optimists and has always maintained that Rizeena was more than just a speed filly. She has already shown that she gets seven furlongs well and should stay a mile but I cannot see her as a 4-1 chance or even shorter. Aidan O’Brien’s runners are always a threat but I haven’t seen anything run a better trial than Ihtimal at Meydan.

Miss France and Vorda have run poorly in the build up to this race and I’m convinced that the latter is a sprinter. It would be great to see George Margarson win a classic with Lucky Kristale but she looked a nervy filly last season and she will find this difficult first time out. The Newbury trial won by J Wonder looked average and I did not see anything in the Nell Gwyn to worry Ihtimal.

Finally, it was sad to hear of the passing of former BBC commentator Julian Wilson at the age of 73. Televised racing has gone through some changes since Wilson and O’Sullevan departed, very few of them for the better. He retired in 1997 and I dread to think what he must have thought of the BBC’s total capitulation in televising the sport.

Ihtimal at 10-1 Bet365, Paddy Power

Ihtimal value at 16-1 for 1000 Guineas

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Early February may seem an odd time to be talking about the first classics of the new turf season but Ihtimal has already laid down her marker for the 1000 Guineas. The Godolphin filly was a smart two-year-old who improved with every race and she has clearly trained on.

On Thursday, she reappeared in the UAE 1000 Guineas at Meydan and produced a devastating turn of foot to leave her rivals floundering. Her victims included a couple of decent four-year-olds and the smart Wedding Ring, also in the blue of Godolphin.

I first started following Ihtimal after she finished fourth to Berkshire at Royal Ascot in the summer. As soon as she stepped up to seven furlongs she began to fulfil her potential, winning the Sweet Solera at Newmarket and then following up in brilliant fashion at Doncaster in the May Hill. That race is nearly always a good guide to the classics and she certainly looked the part that day.

She was beaten on her final start of the season but I’m convinced that it was down to over-confidence on the part of her rider. Silvestre De Sousa may have overdone the waiting tactics a little and she quickened without ever getting to grips with Chriselliam or Rizeena. That was the best fillies’ race of the season in my book and I’m surprised to see the likes of Miss France, Lucky Kristale and Tapestry ahead of Ihtimal in the betting.

Tragically, Chriselliam has had to put down this week following a foot infection. She put up a brilliant performance to win the Breeders Cup in scintillating style and would have been a leading contender at Newmarket. I would imagine Clive Brittain go straight to the Guineas with Rizeena unless he decides to run in the Nell Gwynn but Ihtimal has the UAE Oaks next on her agenda.

Godolphin’s trial winners do not always go on to run well in the Guineas but it is telling that Saeed bin Suroor has already described Ihtimal as the best of his fillies. Coral are still offering a very tempting 16-1 about her for the 1000 Guineas. She could well stay the Oaks trip as well and I don’t think the 20-1 will last long if she puts in a similar display next time.

1000 Guineas Ihtimal at 16-1 Coral, Boylesports

Oaks Ihtimal 20-1 Bet365, Totesport

Meydan Thursday Preview

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The Guineas meeting at Newmarket may seem a long way off to those of us sheltering in storm-lashed Britain but Sheikh Mohammed and Godolphin are already sifting through their classic contenders. The meeting at Meydan stages trials for both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas and there are plenty of familiar names on show tomorrow.

Wedding Ring was as genuine a two-year-old as you could wish to see last season, ending her season by picking up two valuable sales races at Newmarket. I am not a fan of those races but Sheikh Mohammed won’t have been complaining as Wedding Ring picked up a cool £400,000 for her efforts.

She raced six times, beating Ihtimal on her debut before finishing fifth at Royal Ascot. Ihtimal went on to prove the better filly and is on my short list for classic success in 2014 but Wedding Ring improved as the season went on. She only held Oxsana by a neck over six furlongs but extended that to almost two and a half lengths over seven.

Autumn Lily was a bit unpredictable with three wins and two duck eggs in her first season. She is undoubtedly useful and it is interesting that she is rated 3lbs higher than Wedding Ring. I’ll side with the latter and hope that she continues where she left off at Newmarket.

Emirates Flyer is the form horse in the 2000 Guineas trial but this is an altogether tougher assignment with 18 runners. The son of Acclamation showed that he is not fazed by big fields when just failing in the Redcar two-year-old trophy on his final start. He had previously chased home 2000 Guineas ante-post favourite Kingman at Sandown. He did look a little outclassed that day but time may show that to be no disgrace.

There are lots of unknown quantities here including the two trained by South African Mick de Kock. Safety Check was also useful as a two-year-old whilst Figure Of Speech lost his form after some early promise. I haven’t given up on Nezar who can be forgiven his closing effort at Newmarket but may want further than this seven furlongs now.

Cambridgeshire runner-up Code Of Honor has joined the ranks of Godolphin after a promising season with Henry Candy. He ran a blinder when just failing in the Cambridgeshire and looks capable of stepping up into Listed class this year. This looks an ideal starting point and Kieren Fallon will be doing the pushing and shoving.

Wedding Ring @5-2 Bet365

Emirates Flyer @4-1 Bet365

Code Of Honor @9-2 Bet365

Monday 6th April Horse Racing Tips

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Oh my word. Words cannot describe how poorly Hot Snap run. When she beat Sky Lantern last time out, Winning express was in 3rd. This time around, Hot Snap is nowhere to be seen and Sky Lantern wins, with Winning Express in 4th. If she’d run any sort of race we’d of been bang there. No problem with the horse has been reported so i guess she just didn’t fancy it. So disappointing.

Let’s try to get back on track today with a horse that has already been getting backed off the boards as if defeat isn’t an option.

Moonstone Magic – Curragh 16:50 11/4 Bet365

This was 4-1 about an hour before writing this article, it’s now 9/4 in places. The race isnt for 18 hours! Moonstone Magic put up two really good performances, especially the victory in the group 3 Dubai Duty Free Stakes at Newbury last year. She then went into the 1000 guineas as the 13/2 2nd favourite and was put in her place by Homecoming Queen.

I am more than happy to forgive her that run, Homecoming Queen absolutely dominated that race (and hasn’t done anything since), although it seemed a bit of a fluke.

The fact this was 2nd favourite for the 1000 guineas shows the public support and the connections thoughts on where the horse would go. Now, since then, she’s been off the track for over a year. But if she’s fit and ready to go, this significant drop from a group 1 to group 3(a grade she’s won at before) should see the best of her.

Now, Viztoria. Won a listed race then came 2nd in a group 2 at Masions-Laffitte. It’s hard to really know how good that race was, there were some decent types in the race, but also some suprising overachievers, like Boomshackelacker, who came 11th of 11 in a Kempton Group 3 before heading off to France for the race. At evens, i’m more than happy to take it on.

Sunday 5th May Horse Racing Tips

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Hmm. Both my selections went down in flames yesterday, not the best day in terms of punting. It was a joy to watch Dawn Approach destroy his opposition, some well touted horses are still running i think, that’s how bad they were. The O’Brian trio were major flops, and Hannon’s “good thing” couldn’t hold a candle to Dawn Approach, despite reassuring us he’ll win the 2000 guineas. Canford Cliffs anyone? He was meant to win the 2009 2000 guineas, but got beat by a 33-1 shot! Oh and he was meant to beat Frankel in the 2011 renewal of the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Couldn’t hold a candle to Frankel either.

What i’m saying is, ignore the hype were possible, trainers telling us their going to win isnt a good sign. Over confidence. I’d rather a trainer keep quiet and be super confident amongst his friends as opposed to telling the world!

Blerb over. Time to start making some money.

Hot Snap – 1000 Guineas – 3:50 Newmarket 11/4 Bet365

What’s not to like about Hot Snap. Blisteringly fast times against Sky Lantern last time out, was a bit green and actually off the bridle 2 furlongs out, but when she got the hang of things she shot off like a rocket. Instantly went 4-1 from 25-1 to win the guineas based on that performance, and, to be honest, i can see why. Very impressive. Issues? Well, inexperience is one, greenness is another. In the context of this race today, the opposition is decent but not great enough that she cant overcome what’s put in front of her. If she races like she did in the Nell Gynn, she wins.

A suggested bet is 16-1 Stanjames Hot Snap to win 1000 Guineas & The Oaks. I’ve filled my boots on that one.

My coverbet will be What A Name, from guineas winning french duo Mikel Delzangles and Christophe Lemaire.

Newmarket 1000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Whilst the 2000 Guineas looks likely to fall to one of the favourites, the 1000 Guineas has a far more open look. Up until the eye-catching performance of Hot Snap in the Nell Gwynn Stakes it was anybody’s guess what would be sent off favourite. You had to be impressed with her performance that day in sprinting clear of a useful yardstick in Sky Lantern, especially as it was only her second racecourse appearance. She didn’t seem to know what was expected of her in the early stages but she quickened past some decent fillies in a matter of strides.

Those who were quick off the mark could have got 5-1 about her but she is now half that price and no longer represents value in an open race. I have still have a healthy respect for Sky Lantern and if you have backed her ante-post I would certainly not have given up hope of a return. She looked to have strengthened up through the winter and would have posted an impressive performance but for Sir Henry Cecil’s filly. I would not put you off supporting either on Sunday but there are several other fillies with sound claims.

Any French raider for this contest is worth a second look and What A Name has to be considered. She won the Prix Impudence on her latest start despite meeting trouble in running off a slow early pace. The French trials can be misleading as they invariably dawdle through the opening stages before gradually quickening up. The 1000 Guineas can be a very different race as we discovered last year when Homecoming Queen ran the field ragged. Even so, there are reasons for believing that What A Name can play a leading role here. Her trainer does not waste money on entries abroad and the daughter of Mr Greeley hasn’t been out of the frame in five starts. She looked to have more to offer at the end of seven furlongs last time and looks fairly priced at around 5-1.

Moth is an intriguing supplementary entry from the O’Brien stable after running away with a poor race recently. They had always regarded her as more of an Oaks filly so were surprised when she left her rivals flat-footed over seven furlongs. This is a much tougher assignment and 7-1 looks a bit short to me. Charlie Hills has great hopes of Just The Judge as he bids to follow in his father’s footsteps. She did nothing wrong as a two-year-old but could find one or two of these too sharp first time out. I was not impressed with the trial won by Maureen at Newbury and much prefer Sky Lantern of the Hannon runners.

But the one I fancy to give a good run for each-way supporters is Dermot Weld’s Rasmeyaa. Admittedly she hasn’t raced this season either but was very impressive in winning her maiden last year and is bred to get the mile. This looks a tall order first time out but Weld is another trainer who knows the time of day and would not be running here unless he felt she was in this class.

What A Name 5-1 Paddy Power
Rasmeyaa (each-way) 16-1 Ladbrokes