From the moment that correct weight is announced for the final race on Victoria Derby Day, the focus shifts immediately to Tuesday’s AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m). The field was finalised today after Oceanographer, one of Godolphin’s five runners in the race, won the G3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) today.
The field of 24 runners again underlines the international interest in the world’s richest handicap race, which will be run at Flemington on Tuesday at 3pm. Just one locally bred horse, Caulfield Cup winner and second favourite Jameka ($7.50 with William Hill), will take its place in the field. A total of 10 internationally-trained runners have earned a spot in the field (eight from Europe and one each from Japan and New Zealand), with the remainder bred overseas but trained locally. So, where is the value to be found in the 2016 Melbourne Cup betting markets?
Payne’s legacy looms large
Cup Day is a wonderfully unique day on the Australian sporting calendar. It’s a public holiday in Melbourne, so the celebrations stretch will beyond the confines of the Flemington track. TAB outlets are packed as soon as their doors open, as once-a-year punters scour the form guide in search of the ultimate return for their annual flutter.
Those numbers are also likely to be bolstered after last year’s fairytale victory of Prince Of Penzance. Rated a 150-1 outsider, the six-year-old gelding scored in a massive upset. It also marked the first time a female jockey, Michelle Payne, had ridden a Cup winner. Payne’s profile now sits alongside those of the nation’s greatest sporting heroes. Katelyn Mallyon will be hoping to emulate Payne’s achievement on Assign this year.
Prince took the reign
The victory of Prince Of Penzance flew in the face of several long established trends, as the Melbourne Cup is a bloody tough race to win. Primarily, he was unproven at 3200 metres, but Payne made the most of a rails run after Frankie Dettori (on runner-up Max Dynamite) wiped out one-quarter of the field with an ill-timed shift at the 350m-mark, which earned him a fine and a one-month suspension. It’s a combination of factors that generally add up to just a handful of Cup runners having any hope of victory – the ability to run out a strong 3200 metres on firm going under handicap conditions. Some are weighted ideally, some have great staying ability and others love a hard track, but the combination proves a death knell for the bulk of the international contenders.
The winning formula
But having eliminated those without a genuine chance (the marathon trip from Europe, a long break between runs, weight, barrier and questionable Northern Hemisphere form are other impediments worth consideration), there are some proven filters to run through the remaining contenders to devise a list of potential winners. In the 24 editions of the Melbourne Cup since 1991, 17 winners had returned a career-best rating at their previous start. This tells us that the horse has been given the best possible preparation and is in the best form of his or her career. A short campaign in the autumn carnivals (in Australia or New Zealand) also suits Melbourne Cup runners. This factor has produced seven winners in the past 16 years.
First-up drought to end?
Normally, it’s worth steering clear of the international runners that have not had a previous run in Australia. Since 1993, when Vintage Crop won for Ireland, there have been more than 80 international starters entered in the Cup without a previous run in Australia. A handful has come extraordinarily close to victory but records show they all fell short. It’s actually a very weak Cup field that will again feature just a handful of winning chances – they include the Japanese runner Curren Mirotic, Wicklow Brave (barrier 24 and Dettori aboard aren’t ideal), Bondi Beach, Almoonqith (but must be ridden aggressively) and, at a stretch, Exospheric and Hartnell. Watch for our late mail update on Cup Eve.
