Tag: Abseil

Racing Preview Saturday 12th July

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I don’t know what is going on at the Race Planning Committee these days? We’ve had a couple of weekends recently where there has been very little racing to get excited about, then suddenly we get Newmarket, York and Ascot all on the same day? I did not even get time to give serious attention to the York and Ascot cards on Friday and it will be the same tomorrow.

The rain continued to hang over Newmarket’s July meeting on Friday, leaving the going soft and sweeping away my selections. Having said that, I think that Ryan Moore’s riding probably had more to do with it than the weather. He stole the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes on Arabian Queen while Monsieur Guyon was holding up the odds-on favourite High Celebrity. Newmarket is a deceptively difficult course to peg back the leaders, only becoming clear when you realise the steep rise at the finish. Asking horses to make up ground on horses that are still quickening is a recipe for disaster.

I then felt like ripping up my ticket for Rizeena in the Falmouth Stakes after they had travelled a furlong. She wasn’t settled for Olivier Peslier and he gave up the ghost and sent her to the front before halfway. This, after I had written in detail about her tendency to idle in front. Needless to say, Ryan Moore was in the right place on Integral and picked her off in the closing stages.

The opening handicap at Newmarket on Saturday can go the way of You’re Fired who overcame trouble in running to win last time and is still nicely weighted. Unlike many of these, he handles a bit of cut and should give us a run for our money.

Abseil never settled in the Hunt Cup and should be suited by the faster pace in the Bunbury Cup. I am concerned about the draw, not least because jockeys never do what you expect them to! James Doyle should be looking to bring him down the middle on today’s evidence because horses drawn high were doomed if they tacked over to the far rail.

My old friends Aljamaaheer and Gregorian look out of place in the July Cup and conditions seem to favour Slade Power. The Spanish horse ran well in the Guineas but now looks short enough at around 5-1.

The feature race at York is the Magnet Cup and Her Majesty The Queen could lift this prize with Bold Sniper. The half furlong extra should suit him better than Ascot and Moore will have him handy enough. I thought that Farraaj was very impressive at Epsom but I’m worried by a 9lbs weights rise. He probably deserves it so each-way is the advice.

You’re Fired 2.05 Newmarket at 7-1 Paddy Power

Abseil 3.15 Newmarket at 8-1 Ladbrokes, Totesport

Slade Power 3.50 Newmarket at 5-2 Bet365

Farraaj 2.55 York at 12-1 Bet Victor (each-way)

Bold Sniper 2.55 York at 5-1 Betfair

Royal Ascot Wednesday Preview

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We had a couple of short-priced winners on the opening day but it should have been better. I was kicking myself for not including Sole Power with the sun beating down to give him his favoured fast ground. The second day is probably the best betting day of the week with plenty of runners and a fine mix of handicaps and group races.

I usually fancy something strongly in the Jersey Stakes as the seven-furlong trip is ideal for horses that don’t quite get home in the Guineas. Unusually, there is no 2000 Guineas “flop” in the field although there are horses from the French and Irish races. Richard Fahey’s Parbold has become expensive to follow and even his trainer admits to being puzzled by the colt. He did little wrong at Epsom last time when getting within a whisker of ending That Is The Spirit’s winning run. They are both set to go off at huge prices here so can carry each-way support.

I had convinced myself that Tiggy Wiggy would win the Queen Mary after she flew home in the National Stakes. That was until witnessing the American horse bolt up in the two-year-old event yesterday. I am now going to have to include Spanish Pipedream but at least Tiggy Wiggy will be an each-way price.

Treve should win the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes but there must be slight concerns over the shorter trip and quicker ground. I cannot support her at odds-on with the likes of Magician, Dank and The Fugue in opposition but I expect her to come through the test.

There does not seem to be the same stable confidence behind Sky Lantern as there was behind Toronado in the Queen Anne. The popular grey has the form to win on Wednesday having beaten Integral last season at Newmarket but it should be close between the pair.

The cavalry charge for the Royal Hunt Cup sees Abseil bidding to justify heavy ante-post support. Having collected on him at Yarmouth and Epsom, I feel obliged to follow him here but will also take some each-way about Stirring Ballad. Richard Hughes suffered a nightmare ride on her 12 months ago and David Probert now does the steering. She has not been on the racecourse since but stranger things have happened!

That Is The Spirit 2.30 Royal Ascot 14-1 Paddy Power

Parbold 2.30 Royal Ascot 18-1 Bet Victor

Spanish Pipedream 3.05 Royal Ascot 5-2 Bet365

Tiggy Wiggy 3.05 Royal Ascot 6-1 Paddy Power

Integral 3.45 Royal Ascot 3-1 Ladbrokes

Sky Lantern 3.45 Royal Ascot 4-1 Ladbrokes

Abseil 5.00 Royal Ascot 11-2 Coral

Stirring Ballad 5.00 Royal Ascot 23-1 Betfair

Epsom Friday Preview

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It is Oaks day on Friday at Epsom and the supporting card provides plenty of additional interest. Ihtimal carries our hopes in the classic with our 20-1 ante-post selection down to less than half of those odds. I still believe she is excellent each-way value at around 10-1 and expect to see her price shorten before the off.

The support for Marvellous has meant that Taghrooda has eased out to 4-1 and she is my idea of the biggest threat to the Godolphin filly. John Gosden suffered a near-miss with Kingman in the 2000 Guineas before gaining compensation in Ireland and he has another live classic contender here. She may ease out towards 5-1 and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t make the frame.

Thistle Bird is a great favourite of the Roger Charlton stable and she can bounce back to form in the opening Princess Elizabeth Stakes. She won this prize 12 months ago and looked as though she needed the outing when only sixth at York last time. Frankie Dettori was not hard on her once her chance had gone and I expect the mare to gain revenge on Odeliz and Mango Diva who both finished ahead of her that day.

Tres Coronas did us a favour when winning at Chester last month and again ran well behind Clever Cookie at York. His handicap mark has risen as a result and I just prefer the bottom weight Air Pilot in the second race at 2.10. Ralph Beckett’s horse has had only three starts but looked value for more last time when he hit the front too soon.

Gregorian is the best on form in the Diomed Stakes but I am just put off by his lack of a recent outing. He usually goes well fresh but French Navy and Windhoek may have a fitness advantage in a tricky little contest. I just feel that French Navy offers better value at 9-2 than Gregorian at 5-2.

Abseil was beaten by the draw at Chester last time when his fate was sealed by missing the break. He did well to get to within give lengths of the heavily backed Here Comes When and should enjoy the step up to a mile in the 3.20. He has been backed ante-post for the Royal Hunt Cup so ought to win this if he is to justify that support.

Thistle Bird 1.35 Epsom at 3-1 Ladbrokes

Air Pilot 2.10 Epsom at 8-1 William Hill

French Navy 2.45 Epsom at 9-2 Bet365

Abseil 3.20 Epsom at 9-4 Coral, Totesport

Ihtimal 4.00 Epsom at 9-1 William Hill

Taghrooda 4.00 Epsom at 4-1 William Hill

 

Sandown Thursday Preview

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There is a good card at Sandown on Thursday night with the Brigadier Gerard Stakes topping the bill. Although there are only five runners, it still looks a bit of a puzzle.

Hillstar is the obvious choice after running a fair second to Brown Panther in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester. That race was over a mile and five furlongs on soft ground so this drop back to a mile and quarter is interesting. I’ve never really been a fan of Hillstar but this looks as soft a Group 3 as you could come across and he must go close under Ryan Moore.

Top Notch Tonto will find his stamina tested here while Sheikhzayedroad and Sharestan have had their limitations exposed. The one horse that has the potential to develop into a genuine Group 1 performer is Remote, trained by John Gosden. He did this column a favour last season at Royal Ascot but has not raced since and that is a major worry. No doubt Mr G will tell anyone who asks that he will need the run but I’m inclined to chance it at around 4-1.

The second Group 3 on the card is the Henry II Stakes with several Gold Cup entries on show. Brown Panther won the Goodwood Cup and was eighth in Melbourne. The trip and ground won’t worry him and he is as honest as the day is long. Tiger Cliff was third in the Yorkshire Cup but they went no great gallop that day and I wouldn’t be certain of him confirming the form with either High Jinx (5th) or Camborne (7th). El Salvador has a high head carriage while Biographer has been very disappointing and the blinds are fitted here.

My best bet of the evening is reserved for the last with the reappearance of Abseil. I always take note of any lightly-raced four-year-olds retained by Sir Michael Stoute. A healthy percentage of them start in handicaps and progress to Group races and Abseil looks to be heading in that direction.

I was extremely worried about his draw at Chester last time out and it proved his un-doing. His cause was further damaged when he missed the break so he did well to chase home the well prepared Here Comes When. He was beaten five lengths so is only up 1lb for that run and he looks nap material.

Brown Panther 7.15 Sandown at 4-1 Paddy Power

Remote 7.50 Sandown at 4-1 Betfair

Abseil 8.50 Sandown at 2-1 Bet365

Chester Friday Preview

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Having secured a profit on each of the first two days at Chester, the pressure is on for the final day of the meeting. Friday’s card looks the weakest of the week and there are only a couple of horses that stand out for me.

At the start of the week I was saying just how vital a low draw is at the Roodeye. Typically, the two widest drawn horses in the opening two-year-old race finished 1-2! Normal service has been resumed for the rest of the week but the opener tomorrow throws up another conundrum.

Sir Michael Stoute does not keep a lot of older horses in training, especially unraced maidens. Abseil is very much an exception to the rule and he won his maiden in fine style at Yarmouth last month. He raced quite keenly early on but settled well enough for James Doyle before stretching clear over a mile. Only one of the beaten horses has run since and finished second so it is too early to say whether it was a decent maiden.

The handicapper has taken a chance by rating him at just 91. I think he is expected to go a lot higher than that but enter the dreaded Chester draw. He has drawn 13 of 14 which virtually puts him in the River Dee. The trouble is that I cannot find what is likely to beat him, apart from the draw. Capo Rosso won well on the all-weather but is in stall 11 while Here Comes When (1) and Big Johnny D (2) are likely to blaze the trail. The softer ground may help as it will slow the leaders down a little.

My second bet is for Mount Athos in the Ormonde Stakes. He hacked up in this race last year but it was a poor field, underlined by the runner-up Mad Moose! Even so, it showed that he handles it round here and his form in Australia was top notch. Stoute is again to the fore with Hillstar but almost all of his runners need their first run.

I am not a great fan of Jamie Spencer and I was amazed by his ride on Angel Gabrial in the Chester Cup. I had ready Richard Fahey’s column explaining that they had finally found out that the key to the horse was to hold him up as late as possible. Spencer held him up in rear but then unleashed him into the lead on the home turn. He was a sitting duck from that point and it was no surprise to see Ryan Moore steal the glory. Spencer should have no such problems on Mount Athos.

Abseil at 9-2 Paddy Power

Mount Athos at 9-4 Coral