Tag: Aidan O’Brien

French 2000 Guineas Preview

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Aidan O’Brien saddled Gleneagles to win the English 2000 Guineas and attempts to add the French equivalent on Sunday at Longchamp with Highland Reel.

Highland Reel was a late switch to Paris having been as short as 8-1 in the ante-post betting at Newmarket. He won his maiden by 12 lengths at Gowran Park to earn a tilt at the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. Joseph O’Brien was in the saddle that day and he beat Tupi convincingly despite pulling hard in the early stages of the race. Ryan Moore takes over on Sunday and looks sure to play a leading role from stall 7.

Stable companion War Envoy would not be out of it if he can reproduce his fine run in the Grand Criterium in October. He was only a length behind Gleneagles that day in fifth place and the race also included Guineas runner-up Territories. However, he has not shown that level of form since and was soundly beaten behind Kool Kompany in a modest looking renewal of the Craven Stakes.

Charles Hills will have been left frustrated after Greenham Stakes winner Muhaarar was drawn in stall 18. He beat subsequent Guineas flop Estidhkaar at Newbury, although third home Ivawood ran creditably to sneak into the frame in the colts’ classic.

Frankie Dettori partners Karar in the colours of Al Shaqab racing, a six lengths maiden winner before finishing second to Territories here last month. That form has been boosted by the winner’s subsequent run at Newmarket and Karar has plenty of scope for improvement.

Andre Fabre is responsible for Territories and he saddles Make Believe and New Bay here. The latter is lightly raced but looks to have been given a tough task from stall 16.  Make Believe is by 2000 Guineas winner Mafki out of a mare by Suave Dancer and ran a sound race on his reappearance in the Prix Djebel.

He travelled comfortably just behind the lead for most of the race and was just beaten on the nod by Ride Like The Wind. That horse disappointed at Newmarket but Make Believe left the clear impression that he would come on a lot for the race. Olivier Peslier is ideally situated in stall four and should be able to get a nice lead before going for home at the furlong pole.

Make Believe @9-2 Betfair

Lingfield Saturday Preview

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The Derby and Oaks trials are coming thick and fast at present and Lingfield is the venue for tomorrow’s classic pointers.

The Derby Trial at 2.55 has attracted just five runners with John Gosden’s Christophermarlowe odds-on favourite. The son of Tapit won the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom by four lengths from Future Empire but that horse was left trailing at Chester this week. He was more workmanlike than scintillating that day and Frankie Dettori is likely to make a long run for home on this long striding colt.

Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore won the Chester Vase with Hans Holbein and are represented here by Kilimanjaro, a colt by High Chaparral out of a Dalakhani mare. He looked very ordinary on his first two starts at Gowran but was an easy winner at Dundalk in April. He was fitted with a hood for the first time there and the grey is currently 50-1 for Epsom. Christophermarlowe is well ahead on official ratings and can provide Dettori with another big race winner.

Whatever the fate of Kilimanjaro, O’Brien and Moore will probably collect in the Oaks Trial at 2.20 with Wedding Vow. She has been beaten by smart fillies in her last two races. She failed by half a length to hold Zannda at Leopardstown and was then second to subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Legatissimo at Gowran Park. She is a beautifully-bred daughter of Galileo and nothing in this field has comparable form.

There are some more classy fillies on show in the Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes at 4.05, a Group 3 race over seven furlongs. Lightning Thunder was runner-up in both the English and Irish Guineas last season for Olly Stevens but was a beaten favourite at Royal Ascot and Haydock. It is hard to explain her poor performances there but a lengthy break may have sweetened her up.

Kiyoshi is very smart on her day and Oisin Murphy rides her for Charles Hills while Al Thakhira is another with top class form in the book. The race will also provide some clues as to where the three-year-olds stand against their elders. New Providence ran a cracking race when just touched off in the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket and has Ryan Moore in the saddle on Saturday.

Wedding Vow 2.20 @5-6 Paddy Power

Christophermarlowe 2.55 @4-7 Bet365

Lightning Thunder 4.05 @7-2 Betfair

Chester Preview – Friday 8th May

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Betcirca followers were in profit for the second consecutive day at Chester with wins for Collaboration (9-4), Hans Holbein (5-2) and Navigate (10-1).

Aidan O’Brien has mopped up the first two classic trials of the week in the Cheshire Oaks and Chester Vase. He now sets his sights on the Dee Stakes on Friday where he is represented by Smuggler’s Cove. He has much the best two-year-old form having finished third to Belardo in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes.

He had previously won at Dundalk by seven lengths to earn his trip to Newmarket. He is by Fastnet Rock out of a Sadler’s Wells mare and has an extra three furlongs to travel here. The race has been hit by non-runners due to the give in the ground and it could develop into a very tactical affair. Ryan Moore rides Smuggler’s Cove with main market rival Disegno to be partnered by Ted Durcan.

Sir Michael Stoute’s colt also had decent form as a juvenile and was a fair third to Golden Horn first time out this season. He looked very short of pace that day and that could count against him on this tight track.

The feature race of the day is the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at 3.10 and conditions have come right for Marco Botti’s Tac de Boistron. The grey has won nine races in his career, all on soft or heavy ground. He has also won after a lengthy lay-off in the past so fitness is unlikely to be an issue. He has a very high cruising speed and is preferred to the consistent Windshear.

The opening seven-furlong handicap looks wide open. One Word More won well for Tim Easterby last time but I’m put off by his draw in stall ten. He usually comes from off the pace and a slow start here would virtually put him out of it.

Alejandro just gets my vote, although the concern with him is the ground. He has not won on soft ground, although he has run some decent races on it. He ran well for a long way at Haydock first time out when fourth to Emell. The winner was very unlucky not to follow up under a penalty next time so Alejandro clearly met a horse in peak form that day.

Alejandro 2.10 @8-1 Betfair

Smuggler’s Cove 2.40 @6-4 Coral

Tac de Boistron 3.10 @2-1 Bet365

Chester Preview – Thursday 7th May

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Rah Rah (2-1) and Not Never (11-1) gave us a profit on the opening day of the Chester May meeting. Quick Jack was just run out of it in the Chester Cup by Trip To Paris, ironically the horse that I had deserted due to the rain softened ground.

Thursday’s card looks equally competitive and the action begins at 2.10 with a mile and a quarter handicap. Andrew Balding’s Collaboration did us a favour when winning the City & Suburban Handicap at Epsom last time and is difficult to oppose, despite a hefty rise in the weights. He was always travelling well that day and was going further clear at the finish.

The Huxley Stakes at 2.40 looks wide open with some progressive horses entered. Cannock Chase may just have needed his first run of the season at Sandown in the Gordon Richards Stakes. Relatively few of Sir Michael Stoute’s horses have proved fit enough to win first time out. He is just preferred to Air Pilot who went through the handicap last season.

Hans Holbein can add another string to the bow of Aidan O’Brien in the Chester Vase as he plans his raiding party for the Epsom Derby next month. He has already shown that stamina is his strength and the opposition here is pretty weak for a Group 3.

Goring may be worth supporting in the seven furlong handicap after winning cosily last time out. He had previously been disqualified after a banned substance was found in his sample. Stoute’s Pleiades was beaten a long way last time and 6-1 or thereabouts looks good value for Eve Johnson Houghton’s runner.

Raj To Riches has just been caught in his first two races and should be suited by this faster track. He can use his early speed to put his rivals under pressure and get off the mark at the third time of asking. The six-furlong handicap which follows looks particularly tricky and I’m going to give another chance to Navigate. Martyn Meade’s colt showed plenty of early speed at Newmarket last time and this looks an easier contest.

The card closes with another very competitive race and the vote just goes to Empress Ali. She has run three times previously at the Roodeye, returning the form figures 2, 2, 1. Tom Tate may well have targeted this meeting for her seasonal reappearance and she is well drawn in stall 4.

Collaboration 2.10 @9-4 Bet365

Cannock Chase 2.40 @15-8 William Hill

Hans Holbein 3.10 @5-2 Racebets

Goring 3.45 @6-1 Bet365

Raj To Riches 4.20 @5-2 Bet365

Navigate 4.55 @9-1 William Hill

Empress Ali 5.25 @7-1 William Hill

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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Last week we previewed the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and came down on the side of Gleneagles at 9-4. Surprisingly, Aidan O’Brien’s colt can be backed at 7-2 with Paddy Power on the eve of the first classic of the 2015 season.

Highland Reel has been diverted to the French Guineas having drifted to 50-1 on Betfair prior to the announcement from Ballydoyle. Stable companion Ol Man River has come from nowhere to be third favourite at around 6-1. We shall keep faith with the proven two-year-old form of Gleneagles and hope that the market moves are wide of the mark.

There is also a fine supporting card and Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore can get favourite backers off to a good start with Top Tug. He is very lightly raced and matches the profile of previous winners of this race for the powerful Newmarket yard.

The Palace House Sprint does not look particularly strong this year and it may be worth taking a chance on Goldream to successfully step up in class. He was tough and consistent last season for Robert Cowell who is an expert with sprinters. There is a very disappointing turnout for the Jockey Club Cup with Telescope facing only three rivals.

He is top class on his day, as he showed when running away with the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. He won’t be at his peak for his seasonal debut and Pether’s Moon is the one most likely to give him a race on Saturday.

Henry Candy was a relieved man when Limato came out and won at Ascot in midweek. He sends out another potentially top class sprinter in the 4.20 with the unbeaten Twilight Son. He won both of his races as a two-year-old, including a victory over Desert Force. Richard Hannon’s horse came out and won well at Newbury but now finds himself 11lbs worse off with Twilight Son. Candy’s charge only just got up to win at Thirsk but was trapped at the back of the field with two furlongs to run and did well to make up the ground.

Azmaam was very unlucky at the Craven meeting and can reverse form with Rocky Rider in the 4.55 while Godolphin’s Greatest Journey looks the value bet in the closing race. He was only just denied by Cape Clear Island last time and could be even more effective over this two furlongs shorter trip.

Top Tug 2.00 @9-2 William Hill

Goldream 2.30 @6-1 Betfred

Telescope 3.05 @4-7 Stan James

Gleneagles 3.45 @7-2 Paddy Power

Twilight Son 4.20 @13-8 Betfair

Azmaam 4.55 @7-2 Paddy Power

Greatest Journey 5.30 @6-1 Paddy Power

1000 Guineas Preview

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At first glance, the 1000 Guineas market has a very similar look to the 2000 Guineas with Aidan O’Brien holding a strong hand. Found has been favourite since winning at Longchamp in October but the filly does not carry the same confidence as her stable companion Gleneagles in the colt’s classic.

The reason is that she suffered a minor setback a few weeks’ ago and O’Brien recently suggested that she may not make the Guineas. The Irish Guineas is an alternative and it would be no great surprise to see her stable companion Together Forever take over as favourite next week.

She is also a daughter of Galileo and won three times over a mile last season, suggesting that the Oaks may be her ultimate destination. She ended her campaign with victory in the Dubai Fillies’ Mile when beating Agnes Stewart on soft ground with Lucida behind in fifth. The third and fourth have been well beaten already this season so there is a slight question mark against the form.

It is interesting to see Jim Bolger’s Lucida in to as short as 6-1 for Newmarket despite that defeat. She looked useful when winning the Rockfel Stakes and fast ground could be the key to her. Barry Hills has prepared Rockfel runner-up Fadhayyil in much the same way as he did with Ghanaati in 2009. A racecourse gallop at Newmarket was deemed sufficient as the veteran trainer approaches his second retirement from the sport.

Osaila and Redstart won the big trials at Newmarket and Newbury last week but caused little more than a ripple in the ante-post market. Osaila just held New Providence in the Nell Gwyn Stakes while Redstart effectively ended the classic pretentions of Tiggy Wiggy in the Fred Darling. Neither race really screamed classic winner but Godolphin’s Beautiful Romance ran on well in third at Newmarket and I could see her reversing the form in the classic.

I suggested taking a little of the 40-1 available about Local Time after she stormed to victory in the UAE Guineas. The Godolphin filly followed up even more impressively in the UAE Oaks but is not yet a confirmed runner for Newmarket. If, as I suspect, Found does not make the classic, there could be a large field.

Local Time @43-1 Betfair