Tag: Aidan O’Brien

Curragh Sunday Preview

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What a great week at Doncaster! Outstrip (9-4) completed four winning days in a row after Lightning Thunder (5-2), The Lark (15-8) and Ihtimal (7-4). The Godolphin colt was very impressive in winning the Champagne Stakes, just as his stable companion had produced a scintillating performance on Friday in the May Hill.

We cross the water on Sunday for the Irish St Leger meeting and I’m hoping that the O’Brien team can provide me with a fifth consecutive winner in the form of Darwin. This colt is an American import and everyone at Ballydoyle has been very excited about him since he arrived. O’Brien has passed up several tempting engagements in a bid to take it slowly with the imposing son of Big Brown and he looks the stand-out bet on a top quality card.

He arrived with a big reputation and was sent off at 11-10 for his debut at Naas where he sauntered to comfortable victory. His next start was a Group 3 at the Curragh and he faced stiff opposition in the form of Gordon Lord Byron. Leitir Mor, usually employed as a pacemaker for Dawn Approach but no mean performer himself, set the pace with Joseph O’Brien content to track him in second place. Gordon Lord Byron was settled in Darwin’s slipstream and the race began in earnest at the two-furlong marker.

For a moment it looked as though Darwin had a fight on his hands but he responded well to pressure and was going much the better at the finish, drawing a length and three-quarters clear. Gordon Lord Byron has won twice since, most notably the Haydock Sprint Cup which he won in a canter. On that evidence, Darwin is going to take high rank in the mile division before the end of the season.

Stable companion Indian Chief looked decent earlier in the season when second in the Dante Stakes at York but has been disappointing since whilst Elleval and Brendan Brackan are well exposed. Fort Knox would be a bigger danger if the going eases in time as he was not disgraced behind Royal Blue Star on his first start since the Irish Guineas.

The Irish St Leger itself has turned out to be slightly disappointing in terms of quality. Galileo Rock ran at Doncaster, Brown Panther misses the race through injury and Simenon is also absent. I hope that Ahzeemah can uphold the form of his victory over Simenon at York and boost the latter’s Melbourne Cup claims.

Darwin 4-6 Bet365

King George 2013 Preview

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Last weekend we managed to pop a few winners in with Heeraat (3-1), Midnight Flower (100-30) and Waila (9-4). I was cursing myself for not tipping Peniaphobia in the Newbury Super Sprint after taking the trouble to find out that her name means a fear of poverty! I even watched a video of her previous race but was not overly impressed. Clearly Mr Fahey had left a bit to work on.

My dalliance into the golf betting market for the Open looked like paying off briefly on Sunday when Adam Scott found himself at the top of the leader board (tipped at 22-1). He really doesn’t like the closing holes does he? Fortunately he held on for a share of third and an each-way return. Ian Poulter was the only one of my pre-tournament picks to make a decent show and it certainly made it more interesting viewing.

Racing is gearing up to the King George on Saturday and Glorious Goodwood next week so plenty to look forward to. The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (whatever happened to the Diamonds?) Stakes is usually a clash of the generations and this year we have two three-year-olds pitched in against their elders.

The verdict on this year’s classic crop is that they are a moderate bunch. In fact, the best of them could even have won at Leicester last week (Telescope). Sir Michael has persuaded his owners to dig deep in their pockets to supplement Hillstar. He was beaten in a handicap at Newbury first time out, entirely due to failing to settle. He wasn’t that keen to settle at Royal Ascot either but Ryan Moore did a fine job of bringing him through late to catch Battle of Marengo.

To my mind, that form looks very weak and I doubt that even Ryan can get him home in front on Saturday. Irish Derby winner Trading Leather is more likely to be the standard bearer after seeing off the Epsom 1,2,3 at the Curragh. Having said that, only Galileo Rock ran his race so the form is debatable.

The best horse on official ratings is Cirrus des Aigles and he looks the logical answer here. The only question mark is his modest effort first time out. Trainer Corine Barande-Barbe is adamant that he just needed the run and that he will be a different proposition on Saturday. He will need to be if he is to overturn Novellist on Saint-Cloud form but he has won at Ascot before and finished second to Frankel. He would probably want a bit of rain by the weekend and there is still a suspicion that his best distance is a mile and a quarter.

I liked Ektihaam before his Ascot slip up but I am a little concerned as to how that may have affected his confidence. I wonder if Hanagan will allow him to bowl on again on Saturday. Mark Johnston’s Universal is as tough as old boots but I’ve opposed him so many times that there seems no point in giving him the kiss of death now.

St Nicholas Abbey is the main market rival to Cirrus des Aigles after another easy victory in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. The opposition was poor and his form at Ascot isn’t nearly so inspiring. He has been third here twice previously and he does seem a better horse going left handed.

Aidan O’Brien has pulled a few rabbits out of the hat this season with Magician (Irish Guineas) and Declaration of War (Eclipse) catching pundits off guard. I just wonder if he has another trick up his sleeve with Ernest Hemingway here at a massive price. I had virtually written him off until I saw him trounce some seasoned stayers in the Curragh Cup.

He was held up on the rail and then brought wide up the straight to mow down Royal Diamond and win going away by five lengths. It was an astonishing performance that almost certainly suggests he will be a Gold Cup horse next season. I never know what O’Brien’s running plans are but he is currently 150-1 on Betfair and 40-1 generally for Saturday’s race. If he runs he is capable of staying on into a place and you won’t get anything like that price.

Ernest Hemingway 150-1 Betfair, 40-1 Stan James

 

Irish Derby Preview

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The Epsom Derby victory of Ruler Of The World was overshadowed by the dramatic self-destruction of the short-priced favourite Dawn Approach. An awful lot of rubbish has been written and spoken since including talk of a cunning plan by Aidan O’Brien to beat the Guineas winner by setting a slow pace!

The general consensus seems to be that it was not a great race with Ruler Of The World given the lowest rating for a Derby winner for many a year. Five of the runners have been beaten on their reappearance with Dawn Approach (St James’s Palace Stakes) being the only subsequent winner in the field to date.

The Irish Derby sets up a rematch between the first, second and third. Godolphin have moved in to purchase Libertarian who will be running his last race out the Burke stable before switching to Bin Suroor. They have also declared a pacemaker in the form of Cap O’Rushes in the hope of ensuring a suitably strong test for Libertarian.

Ruler Of The World could be joined by stablemate Festive Cheer but there are doubts over the participation of Battle Of Marengo and Count Limonade. The prospect of a pacemaker holds no fears for Ruler Of The World who settled well at Epsom but was chased up by Ryan Moore who could see that he needed to be nearer the front. He actually felt that he hit the front a bit early and there could easily be more improvement to come.

Galileo Rock, third at Epsom, is also set to line up this weekend but already looks as though the Leger distance would suit him better. He was always handily placed in the Derby but may lack a finishing kick. He is closely matched with Sugar Boy on Sandown form in May and the latter has also changed hands this week. Certainly that Sandown race leads a lot better now than it did at the time but Libertarian has come on in leaps and bounds since then and should have his measure.

John Oxx will be represented by Little White Cloud who has been beaten in the Derrinstown Trial and the Gallinule Stakes. Jim Bolger’s Trading Leather set a good clip in the Irish Guineas but had nothing extra in the closing stages and weakened into fourth behind Magician. He won a listed race over ten furlongs last time out but is not guaranteed to stay this trip.

I can see no reason why Ruler Of The World won’t confirm his supremacy over his Epsom victims and he is a top-priced 6-5 with Sportingbet.

St James’s Palace Stakes Preview

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The news that Dawn Approach will, after all, be running in the St James’s Palace Stakes has created quite a stir. Those of you with long memories may recall a similar “will he, won’t he” scenario with Jim Bolger’s New Approach ahead of the Derby in 2008. He was suddenly brought back into the equation with some punters having invested at huge prices on Betfair.

The news that the 2000 Guineas winner will line up on Tuesday has certainly helped to raise the excitement ahead of the meeting. Coral quickly announced that they will be treating all bets previously struck as being “without Dawn Approach”. That was very smart thinking and shows how much more “punter friendly” the bookies are these days. It certainly has not always been the case so full credit to them for acting so quickly.

So what are we to make of Dawn Approach after his Derby antics? It appears that the possibility of him attempting to bolt during the race had not even occurred to his connections, such was their confidence in his ability to settle. Kevin Manning certainly wasn’t expecting it and had already decided that he would need to “get after” Dawn Approach quite early in the Guineas to get him into top gear. Was it simply a case of a miler running in a mile and a half race? I have seen plenty of Guineas horses run in the Derby but cannot remember any of them running as freely as that.

Magician was expected to head for Epsom after winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but Aidan O’Brien dropped him back to a mile for the Irish Guineas instead. The decision was rewarded in spectacular fashion and he looks the obvious choice. O’Brien still has three other entries in the race whilst Bolger has Leitir Mor entered as a possible pacemaker. A crawl would not suit either of the market leaders to it seems safe to assume that there will be a decent pace on.

Toronado was thought to be Dawn Approach’s biggest rival at Newmarket and it looked like being a clash between the two with a furlong or so to run. However, Richard Hannon’s colt dropped out very tamely and was treading water at the line. Connections are adamant that he is a lot better than that and he will presumably be tucked in behind the pace.

The French raiders Mutin and Mshawish don’t look up to top standard and Dundonnell has had his limitations exposed in the past. The verdict has to be to stick with Magician until he is beaten. There are just too many question marks over Dawn Approach.

Magician 2-1 Boylesports

Oaks Ante-Post Preview Update

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Last week I recommended taking the 4-1 about Secret Gesture for the Epsom Oaks and she is now down to 5-2 favourite. The form of her runaway win in the Lingfield Oaks Trial is nothing to write home about but it was the manner of her victory that caught the eye. She looked happy at every stage of the race, responded to a shake of the reins and could have quickened up again if it had been necessary. There may not be that much of her but there is nothing wrong with her engine and she looks like being an outstanding filly.

Aidan O’Brien’s 1000 Guineas third Moth has been displaced as favourite and could possibly line up in the Irish Guineas this weekend. That would surely rule her out of contention for the Oaks but it is never a good idea to try and second-guess what trainers are planning to do. The same applies to Snow Queen who ran on well at Newmarket with the stable also having Cork winner Say entered for Epsom. A case could be made for all three but I’m happy to pass them over until running plans are confirmed.

Liber Nauticus ground out a victory in the Musidora Stakes last week but it was more of a workmanlike display than anything spectacular. I am surprised to find her as short as 7-2 as my first reaction was that she would be pushed out to 5 or 6-1 for Epsom. Sir Michael Stoute provided this column with a nice treble the following day so it is not easy to overlook anything he sends out at the moment. She looked the sort of filly that could go on to win a race like the Park Hill and I think she may meet a couple with a bit more toe at Epsom.

One runner that I was tempted to include as an each-way selection was Cheshire Oaks winner Banoffee. She is to be supplemented for the race after overcoming a slow start to sluice up the rail and pick off the leaders at Chester. She looked a little bit too keen in the early stages, although this could have been down to it being her first start of the season, but I’m just a little concerned about how she will settle in the Oaks. I wouldn’t put anyone off her at 10-1 but I’m not entirely convinced about her over this trip.

Secret Gesture will be joined by her stable companion Talent, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. Madame Defarge ran on into third that day but there seems no obvious reason for her to reverse the placings. The French raider Planete Bleue is an unknown quantity and runs in the famous colours of Daniel Wildenstein. Unfortunately I have not yet been able to see any “visual clues” as to how good she is but the fact that she is available at 50-1 suggests that she is no world-beater. At the moment, everything points to a victory for Secret Gesture.

Secret Gesture 5-2 Paddy Power

Epsom Derby Ante-Post Update

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The jigsaw for the 2013 Epsom Derby is almost complete with Dawn Approach certain to go off a short-priced favourite after his emphatic 2000 Guineas victory. Aidan O’Brien has dominated the trials with Battle Of Marengo being touted as the best of his legion of entries. There are also challengers from France and Germany and a surprise Dante winner trained in Yorkshire.

Dawn Approach was around 7-4 after his Guineas win but is now a top-priced 5-4. The colt was supplemented for Epsom only weeks before his Newmarket victory and there are certainly doubts regarding his stamina. His style of racing has been put forward as the main reason for this newfound confidence in his ability to stay the Derby distance.

Last season he often needed to be driven along quite some way out before asserting his superiority. This has given the impression that he is a very good horse rather than a superstar. He has not cruised into his races or produced an electrifying burst of speed to kill of the opposition. He was under pressure well over a furlong out on Guineas day but kept finding more and had five lengths to spare at the line. The jury is still out on exactly what he beat the day with the runner-up having been sent off at odds of 150-1 and Toronado seemingly failing to give his true running.

In an ordinary year you would expect an impressive trial winner or proven stayer to have emerged as his chief rival. Battle Of Marengo was expected to fill that role but his Leopardstown win was inconclusive and he is no certainty to stay a mile and a half on his pedigree either. O’Brien won both Chester trials easily with Ruler of the World and Magician but neither has quite captured the public’s imagination. Magician now looks likely to run in the Irish Guineas this weekend and his Derby odds have drifted to over 60-1 on Betfair. Ruler of the World beat only 3 rivals in the Chester Vase and is difficult to assess whilst Mars didn’t do enough in the Guineas to encourage support at Epsom.

The Dante at York was expected to provide a serious challenger in Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope but he was forced to withdraw with a minor infection. The media circus has since been watching his every move but he would have to be something very special to win the Derby on his first start as a three-year-old. At long odds you might be tempted but at 7-1? In the event, the Dante was won by outsider Libertarian who was niggled along early but simply outstayed his rivals in the straight.

The French challenger Ocovango is unbeaten in three races and has won over eleven furlongs. His sire Monsun is an outstanding source of middle-distance runners including Manduro, Shirocco and Getaway. They tended to improve with age and there is still a slight stamina doubt on the dam’s side. However, he seems to settle well in his races and should be a straightforward ride. He’s a top price of 9-1 with William Hill.

Chopin has won his last two starts by an aggregate of 17 lengths in Germany. He is by high-class miler Santiago out of a Galileo mare so he has a chance of staying the trip. The bookmakers are being very respectful of his chances with quotes as low as 10-1. Like Ocovango, he has shown his best form on a softer surface and is difficult to weigh up. At this stage I just prefer Ocovango.

Ocovango 9-1 (each-way) William Hill