Tag: Aintree

Grand National Blog – Going favours Spring Heeled

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The Grand National meeting at Aintree gets under way on Thursday and the excitement is already building towards Saturday’s big race.

If you have been following our regular posts, you’ll know that we have been putting together an ante-post portfolio on the race. The ground seems to be drying out with the warm spell over Easter and that is good news for Spring Heeled, tipped here at 33-1 on 4th February. All has gone well with his preparation and Nick Scholfield takes the ride.

Cause Of Causes chased him home at Cheltenham last year and was added to our list at 33-1 after winning at this year’s festival. He has almost halved in price and Paul Carberry is expected to hunt him around on the first circuit and hope to creep into the race. If you are a fan of Tony McCoy, we added Shutthefrontdoor at 20-1 in anticipation of the champion jockey seeking a glorious send-off.

Our only other investment so far was on Monbeg Dude at 33-1 and we were disappointed with him in his latest trial. He would probably prefer softer ground but got round last year in seventh and connections are still to take their chance.

All of the leading bookmakers are now offering non-runner – no bet on the Grand National. There are also some enhanced place terms on offer with BetVictor paying each-way down to sixth place. William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral and Totesport are sticking rigidly to the first four places so far but this may change with pressure form their rivals.

Royale Knight is currently the last horse guaranteed a run so anything below him in the list is relying on some late withdrawals. These include the David Pipe duo of The Package and Broadway Buffalo. The former is a veteran of past Nationals and won well at Cheltenham while Katie Walsh is desperately hoping that Broadway Buffalo can sneak in. She won the Irish Grand National on Monday but looks like missing out on Saturday’s race.

Whereas Cheltenham brings the best from Ireland and Britain together for the first time, Aintree tends to revolve around the festival form. There are smaller fields and (usually) Cheltenham form stands up pretty well. We have previewed day 1 separately with selections for all seven races.

Ante-post

Spring Heeled @33-1

Cause Of Causes @33-1

Monbeg Dude @33-1

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Aintree Thursday Preview

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The Betfred Bowl is one of four Grade 1 races in the opening day of the Grand National meeting at Aintree.

Tony McCoy is re-united with Jonjo O’Neill’s Holywell after being claimed to ride Carlingford Lough in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Holywell briefly looked threatening four from home but could only plug on at one pace into fourth behind Coneygree. That was still a fine effort, particularly as the rain-softened ground went against him.

He is a real spring horse with all of his seven career victories having come between January and April. He had won at the previous two Cheltenham festivals and also won here last year when slamming Don Cossack by ten lengths in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. The obvious danger is Silviniaco Conti who was a disappointing favourite in the Gold Cup. He bounced back to win this race last year and I expect to see Noel Fehily adopt more positive tactics than at Cheltenham.

Cheltenham form is also tested in the Aintree Hurdle at 3.25 when Arctic Fire lines up against Jezki. We tipped Arctic Fire at 25-1 for the Champion Hurdle so were delighted with his run in second place behind Faugheen. He holds Jezki on that form and McCoy’s mount is prone to pull too hard for his own good. The only question mark is whether Arctic Fire stays this longer trip but his style of racing suggests that he will.

McCoy should have register a victory in the McManus colours on Hargam in the Juvenile Hurdle. He was third in the Henderson-dominated Triumph Hurdle and was ten lengths clear of Devilment in fourth place. The green and gold colours have several chances on the card, notably with On The Fringe and Ned Buntline.

On The Fringe was always travelling best in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham and Nina Carberry has a great chance of landing the double here. He has yet to tackle these fences and a huge field of thirty is always a worry. If he settles over the first few fences, he is capable of following up. Ned Buntline gets a handy pull in the weights with Next Sensation for Cheltenham. He was fancied to give Tony McCoy a winning send-off but the ground was too soft for him.

Call The Cops is up 7lbs for his Pertemps Final victory but that may not be enough to prevent him from following up in the last. Vibrato Valtat tried to go after Un De Sceaux in the Arkle and had nothing left in the closing stages. He will be ridden with more restraint in the opener where he clashes with Josses Hill.

Vibrato Valtat 1.40 @9-4 Ladbrokes

Hargam 2.15 @Evens Bet365

Holywell 2.50 @15-8 Skybet

Arctic Fire 3.25 @2-1 Bet365

On The Fringe 4.05 @4-1 Bet365

Ned Buntline 4.40 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Call The Cops 5.15 @7-1 Ladbrokes

Grand National 2015 – Aintree News Update

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The Aintree Grand National is less than two weeks away now and the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a massive gamble on Tony McCoy’s expected mount, Shutthefrontdoor. We forecast this over a month ago and recommended taking the 20-1 about last year’s Irish National winner. He is now as short as 6-1 in places, generally 7-1.

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has been sending out mixed signals, understandably starting to feel the pressure of supplying McCoy’s final ride in the race. There have been heavy hints that the champion jockey will call time immediately on his riding career if he passes the post in front on April 11th.

All three of our other recommended each-way bets remain in contention. Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes are both now 20-1 from 33-1 while Monbeg Dude remains 33-1 after a poor prep run. Soft ground may improve the chances of Monbeg Dude, otherwise we may see him drift further in the betting.

Rocky Creek spearheads the Paul Nicholls runners and he could be joined by Unioniste, Rebel Rebellion and Mon Parrain. Last year’s runner-up Balthazar King is certain to be popular having by-passed Cheltenham this year in an attempt to go one better.

Aidan Coleman has been booked to ride the well-fancied The Druids Nephew after both Barry Geraghty and Davy Russell were ruled out through injury. It would be poetic justice for Coleman were he to pick up a spare ride and win the race, having chosen the wrong horse when Mon Mome won at 100-1 in 2009 under Liam Treadwell.

Alvarado will be bidding to continue the extraordinary run of the Rucker family who have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals, all ridden by Paul Moloney. He has had only one race since finishing fourth last year and is currently a top price of 25-1 with Coral.

I am surprised that both Lord Windermere and Many Clouds are heading to Aintree after running poorly in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Leighton Aspell has been claimed to ride Many Clouds for Oliver Sherwood, leaving Daryl Jacob to take the ride on last year’s winner Pineau De Re. Lord Windermere ran a lifeless race at the festival and is burdened with top weight here with Robbie McNamara taking the ride.

Nina Carberry will ride First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris in a bid to become the first lady jockey to win the race. Katie Walsh has come closest so far, finishing third on Seabass in 2012.

Several firms are already offering five places in the National for each-way betting. They are: Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Betfair and 32Red.

Grand National – 74 remain after latest declaration stage

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There are 74 horses remaining in the £1million Aintree Grand National on April 11th after thirteen were taken out on Tuesday.

As expected, Carlingford Lough was withdrawn after a disappointing run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Also out are: Rolling Aces, Alderwood, Boston Bob, Shotgun Paddy, Theatrical Star, Roi Du Mee, Katenko, Living Next Door, Make A Track, Prince De Beauchene, Cedre Bleu and Buddy Bolero.

The good news for followers of our ante-post advice is that Monbeg Dude has been given the all-clear despite a poor run at Cheltenham. Connections could find nothing wrong with the horse physically and have decided that he resented the tongue-strap which will not be used at Aintree.

Our other selections also remain in contention with Shutthefrontdoor, Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes all prominent in the betting. We highlighted the chance of Shutthefrontdoor prior to Cheltenham and his price has collapsed from 20-1 to 8-1. Champion jockey Tony McCoy will almost certainly be on board the favourite and has said that victory in the race may well be the perfect time to retire.

Spring Heeled (tipped at 33-1) is now a top priced 20-1 for Jim Culloty who still has top weight Lord Windermere entered in the race. Jockey Davy Russell has joined Barry Geraghty on the side lines through injury while Bryan Cooper is suspended. Russell revealed earlier this week that Culloty had removed him from the ride on Lord Windermere after his poor run in the Gold Cup. He became detached soon after the start and was eventually pulled up. The ground had gone against him on the day but Culloty clearly was not satisfied with Russell’s performance.

Paul Nicholls intends to run all six of his remaining entries headed by Rocky Creek and Unioniste. Rocky Creek looks the obvious pick after finishing fifth last year and putting up a lifetime best to win at Kempton last time out. Unioniste could yet emerge as one of the gambles of the race if the going becomes soft.

Last week we added Cause Of Causes to our portfolio at 33-1 and he is now a top price 20-1. He also races in the JP McManus colours carried by Shutthefrontdoor.

If you have not yet had a bet on the race, look out for non-runner – no bet terms. Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James and Betfair are already offering this provision.

Grand National Ante-post update

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With the excitement of Cheltenham over for another year, we can start looking forward to Aintree and the Grand National on April 11th.

There were a number of National contenders in action at the festival last week but they did not include current Aintree favourite Shutthefrontdoor. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill decided against running his Irish National winner, presumably on account of the quicker ground. He will almost certainly be the mount of Tony McCoy, his last in the race before retirement. If the champion jockey was humbled by the adulation he received at Cheltenham, what will it be like should he ride the National winner? He has said that he has no specific date/race in mind for his final ride but going out on a National winner would be hard to top.

We put up the horse at 20-1 a few weeks ago and he is now as short as 8-1 favourite. We also singled out Spring Heeled at 33-1 and the Irish raider has been clipped to a top price of 20-1 after a satisfactory comeback. Jim Culloty’s Lord Windermere was scuppered by the going change on Gold Cup day so I would not be too concerned if you snapped up some 33’s about his stable companion for Aintree.

Our third ante-post pick was Monbeg Dude and he was disappointing at Cheltenham, finishing well behind The Druids Nephew. He is apparently being tested to see if they can find a problem but it may be that the ground was just too fast for him. He does tend to get detached, even in soft ground, so he could yet be a factor at Aintree if we get a wet April.

The Druids Nephew was cut to 14-1 for the National but it was another race which caught my attention with regards to the big race. Cause Of Causes finally gained a first win over the larger obstacles when winning the National Hunt Chase under Jamie Codd. His rider had him tucked away behind the leaders all the way and produced him late on to hold Broadway Buffalo.

He races in the same colours as Shutthefrontdoor so it will be interesting to see who gets the ride. Codd did pick up a suspension for marking the horse but went on to land a second winner at the meeting and would seem the logical choice for Aintree. Cause Of Causes has 10st 9lb to carry in the National and the 33-1 on offer with William Hill looks worth snapping up. He is as short as 20-1 elsewhere.

Cause Of Causes @33-1 William Hill

Grand National 2015 ante-post update

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The weights were announced on Tuesday for the Aintree Grand National and there were no real surprises. As expected, Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere (11st 12lb) is at the top of the handicap alongside recent Irish Hennessy winner Carlingford Lough. Both horses are on target for the festival and I don’t expect either of them to line up at Liverpool.

Many Clouds is next on 11st 9lb and his participation will also depend on what happens at next month’s festival. Paul Nicholls is quite keen on the chances of Unioniste (11st 6lb) but he could end up shouldering top weight and really needs soft ground to show his best.

After Tony McCoy announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season, I highlighted the prospect of Shutthefrontdoor being the gamble of the race. Jonjo O’Neill’s Irish National winner was 20-1 at the time and has now been slashed to half those odds. If you did not get on early, I would not rush out to take the current odds.

Our other ante-post selections were Spring Heeled and Monbeg Dude (both tipped at 33-1). The former is likely to return to action this weekend at either Fairyhouse or Kempton. Connections have been avoiding running him so as to protect his handicap mark and he has been allocated 10st 12lb at Aintree. That looks a perfect racing weight and Jim Culloty will be happy to see him jump round safely in third or fourth this weekend.

I was not at all dismayed to see Monbeg Dude well beaten in the Haydock Grand National Trial on Saturday. He ran in the same race two years ago and came from another county to sneak into the frame. He is 2lbs better off than last year when finishing seventh in the big race and will know more about those big fences this time. Although his best form is on soft, it is not essential and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking any 33-1 that remains about him.

Pineau De Re and Balthazar King are back again after filling the first two places last year. The winner is up 8lbs but you’d have to expect that. I think that everything fell into place for him last season after that eye-catching run over hurdles at the festival. He will need to show something at the meeting again this year to warrant support.

Our Ante-post Portfolio;

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1 William Hill

Monbeg Dude @33-1 Paddy Power

Spring Heeled @33-1 Paddy Power