Tag: Aintree

Grand National Update

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Trainers are still formulating plans for next week’s Aintree Grand National but some of the leading bookmakers are now offering NR – no bet. This development in recent years, particularly ahead of the Cheltenham festival, has transformed the ante-post betting market.

We can now bet ahead of the major events without the fear of waking up the next morning to find that your horse has been withdrawn. Naturally, the bookies do tend to trim the odds a little to off-set the risk but there is still some great value to be had.

Our long term bets on the Grand National are all still in contention. Teaforthree has more than halved in price since the weights came out while Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude are still on course for the race. Godsmejudge has pulled up twice but has contracted in price to a general 20-1 from 33-1. Trainer Alan King is a master of his trade and if anyone can get him back to his Ayr form it is he.

I would also like to add Big Shu to my ante-post portfolio with the NR-no bet proviso. I have not heard any news about his likely participation, although I do know that his trainer is reluctant to risk him unless the going is soft. He failed in his bid to win the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham festival for the second successive year. However, he lost little in defeat when a close third to the tough Balthazar King.

I like Paul Carberry as a jockey but he may have slightly overdone the waiting tactics that day. Big Shu made ground rapidly to join the leaders with three to jump but his effort fizzled out behind Balthazar King and the enigmatic Any Currency. He was only beaten a short head and three lengths on ground that was probably a bit too quick for him.

Balthazar King ran well for a long way in the National last year but he was absolutely legless at the finish and I just don’t see it as a suitable race for him. Philip Hobbs may yet be tempted to give him another try, especially if the going is fast. Maher has already indicated that he was delighted with the 10st 8lb allocated to his horse who defied a massive 12st 3lb in the La Touche Cup last season.

Big Shu at 33-1 Totesport, Boylesports (NR – No Bet)

Grand National ante-post update

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The Grand National may seem a long way off with the excitement still building towards the Cheltenham festival but the entries were announced today. 115 horses have been entered for the £1million race including Tidal Bay and Long Run as expected.

This is good news for our earlier selections Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude as it means they will get in with 11st or less to carry. There are no real surprises in the list other than perhaps the number of older horses that are still being entered. One who won’t be there is last year’s 66-1 winner Aurora’s Encore after he suffered a nasty injury last weekend.

He’s been operated on for a fracture to his off-fore and all racing fans will be hoping that he makes a good recovery and gets the retirement that he deserves. I was a little surprised that he was kept in training this year. Neptune Collonges was promptly retired after his gallant success and it would have been nice to see Aurora’s Encore given the same courtesy.

Triolo D’Alene

Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene was installed as favourite after winning the Hennessy in November but hasn’t reappeared since. He was due to run at Ascot and Cheltenham but Henderson decided not to risk him on the heavy ground. He was not that happy with the 11lbs rise in the handicap after Newbury but he seems to be making sure that it doesn’t go any higher. I’d be surprised if we see him before the weights come out on February 11th.

The Hennessy form was not exactly franked by Rocky Creek’s defeat last weekend but I don’t believe  he was at his best. Paul Nicholls believes that a setback after Newbury took the edge off him and  he probably just blew up in the closing stages.

Monbeg Dude

At the start of the season I thought that Monbeg Dude would need heavy ground to win a National and that he may be on the small side for the big fences. I changed my mind after his impressive win at Cheltenham last time out where he jumped well and won a shade cosily on good to soft ground. He is still available at 25-1 in places and that seems a fair price for a Welsh National winner.

Godsmejudge

I’d like to put up Godsmejudge as my third early fancy for the race at 33-1 with Coral. He was pulled up last time at Sandown but the stable has been laid low with a virus and it seems safe to ignore that run. He had previously run very well at Cheltenham and he could provide Alan King with his first National success.

He really attacked his fences at Ayr when winning the Scottish National and he looks a proper Aintree sort if King can get him there in one piece.

*ante-post Triolo D’Alene 20-1

*ante-post Monbeg Dude 25-1

Godsmejudge at 33-1 Coral

Racing Preview Saturday 7th December

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It’s a busy weekend for both flat and National Hunt fans with Aintree and Sandown followed by the big meeting in Hong Kong. Our midweek bets on the big races have all stood their ground so let’s hope we can follow up our 20-1 Hennessy Gold Cup success!

There are plenty of interesting supporting races, not least the Listed Chase at Aintree at 2.40. According to the Racing Post, Channel 4 are not televising this race. This is slightly baffling, given the good quality of the field and the fact that the Tingle Creek does not start until 20 minutes later!

I am presuming that the powers-that-be had prepared a stack of musical interludes with slow-mo pictures of Sprinter Sacre. One day they will realise that racing fans want more live action and less waffle!

Returning to the race in question, I am going to side with the five-year-old Unioniste. Paul Nicholls has admitted that a lot of his runners are in need of a run this season and the grey was a typical example at Wetherby. He just didn’t quite get home behind Harry Topper and can reverse the form with the runner-up Wayward Prince.

Katenko fell too early in the Hennessy to say whether he would have been involved at the business end whilst The Giant Bolster seems to reserve his best for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Unioniste is tough and consistent and looks great value at 9-2.

I am a big fan of Nicky Henderson’s dual-purpose performer Lieutenant Miller and I’ll be supporting him in the 1.00 at Aintree tomorrow. He ran his heart out at Royal Ascot, Goodwood and in the Cesarewitch on the flat this year and deserves to pick up a decent hurdling prize. He is still on a very attractive handicap mark over hurdles and he should be able to exploit it.

There seems to be a National named after every part of Britain these days and tomorrow it is the London version. I’m going for Bradley in this one after his fine third at Cheltenham last time out. I thought Godsmejudge ran well too but I can’t support him with 11st 12lb on his back.

Bradley caught my eye last year when just run out of it by the mud-loving Monbeg Dude at Cheltenham. He is yet to land the big prize that he deserves but tomorrow could be his day.

Lieutenant Miller 4-1 Bet365

Unioniste 9-2 William Hill

Bradley 8-1 Bet365

Becher Chase Preview

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Twenty-four horses are set to face the starter in Saturday’s Becher Chase at Aintree. I cannot remember the Betfair Chase attracting such a large field in previous years and it reads like a min-Grand National!

Two years ago, On His Own appeared to be travelling as well as anything in the big race when falling at Becher’s Brook on the second circuit. The last time I was as gutted in the National was when West Tip came down in almost identical fashion.

Naturally plans were set in motion for a repeat attempt but, unlike West Tip, it did not end well. Ruby Walsh had him in a good position but he was clearly in retreat when he fell awkwardly at Valentine’s on the second circuit. Some horses are just not meant to win at Aintree and it appears that On His Own falls into that category.

He lines up on Saturday against a field of veterans and misfits and you’d have to fancy him on his best form. Of course there is a risk that he will suffer the same fate as on his two previous visits so I recommend an insurance policy in the form of stable companion Vesper Bell.

I wouldn’t normally tip a horse that hasn’t run for seven months, especially in such a gruelling race, but Willie Mullins is unlikely to be sending him over for the good of his health. He also holds an entry in the Welsh National and his form suggests that the deeper the ground the better.

If the rest of Britain is anything like it is here in Scotland today (Thursday – the day of the Winter Storm) then I’d expect the going to be soft at the weekend. On his most recent start, Vesper Bell was just grabbed on the line by Welsh National favourite Goonyella at Punchestown.

Of the others, I am expecting Across The Bay to jump around safely after leading the National field for such a long way. He made a slight mistake at the third and was hampered when a loose horse ran across him before half-way so it was no surprise that he weakened in the closing stages. With a shorter trip and his free-wheeling style, it would be no surprise to see him up there from the start.

The biggest surprise for me is to see David Pipe’s Junior at the top of the weights. He was the subject of a massive ante-post plunge in this race a couple of seasons ago but appeared to resent the place and I assumed that we wouldn’t see him back here again. Far be it from me to question Mr Pipe so I can only assume that they have had second thoughts for his recalcitrant performance that day.

On His Own 10-1 Betfair

Vesper Bell (each-way) 16-1 Stan James, BetVictor

 

Scottish National Ante-Post Preview

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Following a 50-1 winner of the Irish National and Aurora’s Encore’s 66-1 triumph at Aintree last weekend, you couldn’t really blame punters for giving the Scottish National a miss. Trainer Sue Smith is apparently considering whether or not to let her National winner take his chance at Ayr under after an 11lb rise in the weights. That may sound steep but is actually only a 5lb higher mark than last year when he was edged out by Merigo.

Whilst every sniff and sneeze was reported for the Aintree participants, we are left to rely largely on guesswork when it comes to the Scottish National. The list of entries looks impressive enough but it is worth remembering that there is no non-runner/no bet rule on offer at the moment so we have to tread carefully.

It seems like half of the Grand National field are entered but it is anybody’s guess whether they will turn up. The races are quite close together this year so I’d have thought the likes of Teaforthree and Cappa Bleu were extremely doubtful. Aintree also-rans include Roberto Goldback, Chicago Grey, Join Together, Across The Bay and Rare Bob. The bookmakers also seem to be in the dark as they have put up Cheltenham faller Rival D’Estruval as their ante-post favourite at 8-1 with Always Right at 10-1 and it is 12-1 bar.

Until we hear otherwise, I’d have thought the best policy would be to draw a line through the Aintree runners and look elsewhere. Rival D’Estruval’s case is obvious enough having looked an unlucky faller in the National Hunt Chase at the festival. He has been declared a definite starter after pleasing in his subsequent work but the race is something of an after-thought and there is no way of telling whether his confidence has been affected. Always Right is a difficult one to assess. He was third in this race two years ago and that is a definite point in his favour. He followed up that run with victory at Kelso but then lost his way completely. I remember him cantering into contention at Haydock in the National Trial before pulling up rapidly.

Last time out he won the Kelso race in which Aurora’s Encore was a fifty-three length sixth! Before getting too carried away, it may be more to the point that he beat the 12-year-old Garleton by a head at level weights. One race that could be worth studying for clues is the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster in March. Quentin Collonges beat Mr Moss by half a length and they are set to meet on the same terms. Quentin Collonges choked last year in the Scottish National and now wears a tongue strap whilst Mr Moss is trained by Evan Williams, second at Aintree with Cappa Bleu.

There are several younger horses that could be improving, notably the novices Houblon Des Obeaux and Poungach. Neither seem to be particularly well handicapped but Cheltenham winner Same Difference would be interesting if he took his chance. He looks to have plenty of stamina and put up a fine performance to grab Super Duty on the line at the festival. He is set to race off a 7lb higher mark but looks capable of taking the step up. He races in the same colours as Captain Dibble who won the race in 1992.

Silver By Nature and Wyck Hill are on their way back from injury whilst Well Refreshed looks a mudlark who is unlikely to get his conditions here. Godsmejudge ran well enough at Cheltenham but looks decidedly slow. White Star Line is a possible long shot from low in the weights but he looks difficult to win with.

Same Difference 14-1 Ladbrokes
Quentin Collonges 14-1 Coral
Mr Moss 20-1 Coral

Grand National Day Preview

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I’m pleased to be back in profit after a successful day 2 at Aintree. I hope that a few of you took a chance on the four-timer! Both of Alan King’s hurdlers rewarded each-way support at nice prices and only Tartak let the side down when tipping up in the Topham. Now for the big one!

I’ve long been a fan of On His Own for the Grand National and I see no reason to desert him at this stage. The 10-1 on offer with William Hill still looks like a fair bet to me. He probably would have liked a bit more rain as he did seem to be slowly away last year. Having said that, he could hardly have a better pilot than Ruby Walsh and he should be able to keep him in touch. I’ve also advised a little of the 40-1 each-way on Always Waining. Trainer Peter Bowen seems a little pessimistic about his chances of staying the trip but he is well used to the hurly burly of the National course and those odds are too good to pass up.

After Nicky Henderson fired off another four winners on Friday, you have to take him seriously when he suggests that Roberto Goldback is not without a chance. Henderson is too good a trainer to run horses in the National just for the sake of it and the horse definitely has the ground in his favour. He ran sweetly for Barry Geraghty at Ascot first time out and if he is that sort of mood the 33-1 with Coral might be worth a punt.

Friday’s card was all about favourites but Saturday looks far more testing. The Maghull Novices’ Chase at 2.15 will show whether Baily Green is as good as his Arkle second to Simonsig suggests. Overturn was on a hiding to nothing that day but will find this easier track much more to his liking and Alderwood steps out of handicap company after winning the Grand Annual. Whilst all three have obvious chances, the better value bet may be to take a chance on Sire De Grugy at 8-1. He was a decent hurdler but has always had the scope to make a chaser and, unlike his rivals, does not come here after a hard race at the festival.

The Grade 1 John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle over three miles puts the World Hurdle form under the spotlight with Solwhit, Celestial Halo and Smad Place meeting again. I expect the placings to be confirmed but I am more interested in Alan King’s Medinas, winner of the Coral Cup at the festival. He may be built like a pony but he has the heart of a lion and defied 11st 10lb at the festival under a great ride from Wayne Hutchinson. With Smad Place being the stable number one, Richard Johnson steps in for the ride and I’m hopeful that he can make it into the first three. Odds of 14-1 seems terrific each-way value. I also have a healthy respect for African Gold but he looks like a chaser in the making and may find this course a bit sharp.

On His Own 10-1 William Hill
Always Waining 40-1 Paddy Power
Roberto Goldback 33-1 Coral
Sire De Grugy 8-1 Bet365
Medinas 14-1 Paddy Power