Tag: All Blacks

Rugby Union Championship: Where to Find Some Value this Weekend

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Grab yourself a pint, pick a side and get ready for some serious rugby betting action this weekend as four of the best Union-playing nations in the world battle for supremacy. The latest Rugby Union Championship action gets underway on October 8, and will see South Africa and New Zealand duke it out in Durban, while Argentina and Australia entertain at Twickenham.

As is often the case when these four rugby powerhouses meet, anything can happen. Indeed, ahead of what will inevitably be a physically taxing game against South Africa, New Zealand’s head coach Steve Hansen has made four main changes. With Waisake Naholo back from injury (for a fourth time), Hansen is hoping the Fiji-born winger can turn on the afterburners and expose a potentially sluggish South African defensive line.

South Africa vs. New Zealand Betting Preview

Aside from bringing in Naholo to replace Julian Savea, Hansen is keeping his backline much the same, which seems to be a wise decision given how powerful it looked in the All Blacks 31-17 win over Argentina last week. Up the front, Matt Todd, Sam Whitelock and Jerome Kaino will all make a return to the starting line-up which should give New Zealand some much needed strength and experience.

While South Africa will want to try and ignore their 38% win ratio against New Zealand (35 wins from 93 matches), it’s hard to see how Allister Coetzee’s men get it done in Durban. Yes, home field advantage will certainly help. Yes, the Boks looked impressive as they beat Australia 18-10. But, with New Zealand enjoying a 16-game winning streak – a streak which includes a recent 41-13 win over South Africa – it’s hard to see how the Springboks get it done.

Sifting through the latest odds, 1/5 on a New Zealand victory is about as good as you’re going to get (Ladbrokes odds are slightly shorter at 1/6). However, if you’re willing to look beyond the obvious outrights, the following options should offer some added value this weekend; especially if you’re inclined to side with the experts and back a New Zealand win.

Ladbrokes:

Naholo or Dagg to score the first try = 9/2

New Zealand to win by 20 points or more = 5/2

New Zealand to win by 25 points or more = 9/2

Bet365:

Team with the highest scoring half: Africa = 3/1 – New Zealand 1/4

Bryan Habana to score first = 11/1

South Africa to score first and lose = 13/8

SkyBet:

New Zealand to win with -12.0 handicap = 10/11

Match to end in a draw = 25/1

South Africa first half/New Zealand win = 6/1

Argentina vs. Australia Betting Preview

In the weekend’s other Rugby Union Championship match, Argentina will look to bounce back from a defeat to New Zealand and clinch a victory against Australia. By Aussie standards, the Wallabies’ recent run has been poor. A 3-0 whitewash against England earlier in the year, and just two wins from five Rugby Union Championship matches this season has put the pressure on coach Michael Cheika.

Age is certainly an issue for Australia which has forced Cheika to enact a major shakeup. When the side runs out against Argentina on Saturday, just seven players from the 2015 World Cup final will be on display. This kind of instability is always dangerous, and Argentina is a side that always poses a threat.

Essentially what this match comes down to is quality versus determination. Although Australia might not be at their peak, the pedigree speaks for itself, and that’s made them the betting favourites at 4/11 with SkyBet. Of course, a neutral venue and a touch of inexperience possible in certain areas for Australia, things could get tricky if the game wears on with little action. Indeed, this could be Argentina’s best opportunity to grind out a win for some time.

At present the odds makers at Ladbrokes and SkyBet seem to agree that 9/4 is the right line for an Argentina upset, while bet365 is currently running at 12/5. If we were to stick our necks on the line and pick two winners this weekend, it’s hard to see past the favourites. However, with changes seemingly the order of the day for New Zealand and Australia, there could be space for the underdogs to sneak in and steal the plaudits.

Strong Finish Sees All Blacks Home

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It feels like the same tagline could have been used to describe each of the All Blacks Northern Tour matches.  Terms like “scrape home’ and “survived a scare” could have been paired with “brave opposition” and “last minute show of class” to illustrate exactly what occurred against England, Scotland, and now Wales.

As it was, a brave Welsh defensive effort that last all of 60 minutes was eventually broken down by moments of individual brilliance from Beauden Barrett, Kieran Read, and Aaron Smith.  There were times, two to be exact (when the Welsh led by a single point), where the Welsh faithful would have dared to dream a first win against the All Blacks since 1953 was possible, only to have the dream quickly turn into nightmare as tries to Barrett (2) and Read rudely interrupted the local hope.

Both tries were typical moments of skill and composure.  Barrett’s effort to take the All Blacks into a 70th minute lead was an excellent individual chip and chase with a cruel bounce of the ball seeing him past an incoming Leigh Halfpenny.  Read’s on the other hand was a close range charge down and gather, upsetting a Mike Phillips box clearance.  Read showed tremendous nous and patience close to the line in scoring the decisive game winner.

Before the late breakaway, the contest was dominated by strong defensive efforts from both sides.  The Welsh effort to keep the All Blacks scoreless in the first half was as impressive as it was slightly negative.  Without really threatening the All Blacks, and using a large number of stoppages to give running repairs to their forward pack, the home side clearly felt a disruptive rather than expansive game plan gave them the best chance of victory.

The approach worked for most of the first half as the Welsh flat defensive line squeezed the All Blacks and prevented them from finding any consistent width or space in which to play at their fast paced best.  Barrett and Halfpenny were the only point scorers in what made for relatively dour and error prone rugby.

The half time break at least provided a hint of inspiration for the sides as both crossed for early second half tries (Julian Savea and Rhys Webb) that entertained the 77,000 strong crowd but quickly reinstated the deadlock.  As the pressure began to tell, the kicking games of the sides started to reflect the ambition of the teams, and would eventually prove the difference.  The Welsh chose a territorial game and continuously booted quality ball away in attempts to drive the All Blacks into their own half.  The men in black however, opted for more positive kicking often behind the fast approaching rush defence.  The ploy was successful with a cross field Barrett kick leading to a Jerome Kaino try and a chip and gather effort from Barrett sending the Kiwi’s back to NZ with another test win.

Wales should take some heart from a defensive effort that definitely unsettled the All Blacks but will also rue missing out on a treasured win against the All Blacks, a win that at half time seemed entirely plausible.

All Blacks: 34 (Julian Savea, Jerome Kaino, 2 Beauden Barrett, Kieran Read tries; Beauden Barrett con, pen; Colin Slade 2 con) 

Wales: 16 (Rhys Webb try; Leigh Halfpenny con, 3 pens)

Below Par All Blacks Barely Avoid Scotland Defeat

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Question marks remain over a host of fringe All Blacks players after a disappointing performance against a brave Scotland side at Murrayfield on the weekend.  Barring a couple of stunt performances from Jeremy Thrush and Charles Piutau, the back-up group failed to take the opportunity to press their claims for starting spots against Wales next week, or longer term, spots in the 2015 World Cup squad.  The skittish effort was full of rust; untidiness; and confusion, and despite assurances from coach Steven Hansen that the side needed a hotly contested match, will have damaged the reputations of some of the All Blacks also-rans.

TJ Peranara, Ryan Crotty, Dominic Bird all failed to shine, and the increasingly fragile Dan Carter returned to action with plenty of kinks that need to be ironed out.   As a result of individual frailties and team inaccuracy, the All Blacks only scraped past the determined Scots, eventually eking out a 24-16 win.  Tries to forwards Victor Vito and Thrush helped the All Blacks cancel out a Tommy Seymour intercept try that had stirred a passionate Murrayfield crowd into daring to believe in a first ever win against the All Blacks.

For all the heart of the Scotland side, there didn’t appear to be a huge chance of upsetting the All Blacks.  The All Blacks superior territorial game near the end, in addition to their powerful bench, meant they were always likely to overpower the improving Scottish side.  They deserve credit, however, for coming within ten points of the All Blacks for the first time since 1991, and unearthing a couple of future stars in the locking Gray brothers; Sean Lamont’s cameo was encouraging too.

The one regret for Scotland will be reliable captain Greg Laidlaw’s penalty miss that would have pushed them in front of, and heaped pressure on, the All Blacks with ten minutes to go.  The attempt sailed wide and with it the chances of an unexpected win.

Attempting to go one better than the strong Scotland effort this weekend will be Wales at Millennium Stadium.  To do so Wales will need to find an extra gear from the one they traditionally use against the Southern Hemisphere sides.  We’ll preview that match later this week.

All Blacks Change Plenty in Bid to Remain Perfect

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The All Backs have never lost to Scotland.  In 109 long years the brave Scottish are yet to break a duck that is beginning to resemble one of the most one-sided bi-lateral match ups in history.  Saturday’s Murrayfield encounter is the latest stanza in the meetings between the countries, and is a return to Scotland’s last resemblance of success against the All Blacks; a 23-23 draw in 1983.

However, the 2014 version shapes as an intriguing matchup between consistency and rotation.  The All Blacks escaped an England scare last week to reaffirm their position as World Cup favourites, and have made 13 changes to that side in an almost unrecognisable line-up.  Whereas, a much improved Scotland side dismantled a capable Argentinian side, scoring five tries in the process for the first time in a test in six years, and have made zero changes from that team.

The 13 changes made by Steve Hansen is the greatest number of changes he has made to a side from week to week in his tenure.  To an extent, that puts Scotland in the same vein as the USA, and opens the All Blacks up to complacency wobbles.  Leaving names such as Conrad Smith, Israel Dagg, Sonny Bill Williams, Julian Savea, Jerome Kaino, and Kieran Read have had many pundits questioning whether Hansen is treating the game with the requisite respect.  Complacency though, as a word, doesn’t exist in the All Blacks psyche, the team are too well organised and drilled to allow laziness to creep in.  Combine that with the depth in the All Blacks training squad and the versatility of a number of their players and the changes should have a minimal material impact to their performance.

Looking to exploit any potential All Black uncertainty is a Scotland side that under a new leadership group of captain Greig Laidlaw and coach Vern Cotter have drastically altered their game plan.  Last week’s effort was full of vigour and attacking intent, words that  much like the All Blacks example above, are rarely associated with Scotland.  Scotland looked dangerous with ball in hand throughout will look to tap into Cotter’s knowledge of All Black rugby or at the very least the absence of fear he brings to the environment.

Daniel Carter’s return to the All Blacks fold is an interesting aside to the main event.  That’s because even with three World class first fives (maybe four, if you count Colin Slade), the All Blacks are yet to settle on their number one option; durability concerns remain over Carter, and Barrett and Cruden have the goal-kicking yips.

With plenty of changes the All Blacks are obviously confident they can remain perfect against the Scots.  By no means however, does that mean it will be easy.  I’m picking the All Blacks by 16 in a scrappy match.

The Odds

New Zealand $1.04

Scotland $12.00

Odds courtesy of Sportingbet Australia.

The Teams

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (captain); 1 Alasdair Dickinson, 2 Ross Ford, 3 Euan Murray, 4 Richie Gray, 5 Jonny Gray, 6 Rob Harley, 7 Blair Cowan, 8 Adam Ashe.

Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Gordon Reid, 18 Geoff Cross, 19 Tim Swinson, 20 Johnnie Beattie, 21 Chris Cusiter, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Sean Lamont.

All Blacks: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Colin Slade, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Charles Piutau, 10 Dan Carter, 9 TJ Perenara; 1 Joe Moody, 2 James Parsons, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 5 Dominic Bird, 6 Richie McCaw (captain), 7 Sam Cane, 8 Victor Vito.

Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ben Franks, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Augustine Pulu, 22 Sonny Bill Williams, 23 Julian Savea.

All Blacks Issue World Cup Warning

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The 2015 World Cup final will be held at Twickenham on the 31st of October in front of close to 90,000 people.  If the weekend’s matchup was a test run, the All Blacks passed with distinction; the English faltered.

Despite a fast start, a one man advantage mid way through the second half, and the benefit of a dubious penalty try, the English were clearly second best.  They have done little to suggest they have improved since their mid year trip to New Zealand;  the gap between the sides remains, and in actual fact is larger than the three point winning margin suggests.

England’s unsettled midfield combination and their inability to find points in the second half was a telling difference between the two sides in the difficult Autumn rain.  Ultimately the side with 400 more test caps than the other utilised their superior skills to take the spoils.

The All Blacks who had woes of their own, namely their goal-kicking, once again showed just how difficult they are to beat.  Led by the heroic Richie McCaw the All Blacks have an uncanny knack of staying calm even under the most intense pressure, and still escaping with victories.  Knowing how to win, is jut as important at not knowing how to lose; the All Blacks are quite simply better than any other International rugby team (probably in history) at it.

The win did not always appear to be on course.  Johnny May streaked past Conrad Smith and Israel Dagg in rather embarrassing (for the All Blacks pair anyway) fashion to give England the perfect start.  With Owen Farrell also contributing points with the boot, the English took a surprising lead to the break and the Twickenham vocal chords were in full, hopeful voice.

The second half was a different story.  The All Blacks gave England next to no ball and ran in tries to captain McAwesome and Charlie Famine.  At 24-14 there was only ever going to be one winner.  England late penalty try was merely consolation.

McCaw was New Zealand’s best player, followed by Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Sam Whitlock and Aaron Smith.  While, Cruden’s and Barrett’s kicking yips should see Daniel Carter start next week against Scotland, along with a number of other rotation policy changes.

England’s coach Stuart Lancaster remained optimistic about his side’s World Cup chances.  He can rightly take heart in the work of his teams line-out and scrum.

The 2015 World Cup form guide will again be getting a workout with Internationals that pit England against South Africa, and New Zealand against Scotland.  Time is running out for teams to build confidence, and send warning shots, especially to the All Blacks.

Wallabies End Hellish Week With Bledisloe Cup Defeat

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After a week of disruptive media attention and allegations of a divisive leadership group, the Wallabies almost pulled off the unthinkable against the All Blacks in Brisbane.  As it transpired, Colin Slade’s last minute conversion (atoning for an earlier error in failing to find touch) was enough to separate the teams after a fast paced Bledisloe Cup classic.

The Houdini act was enough to prevent the AB’s from losing two tests in a row for the first time since 2011, but it doesn’t paint the full picture of last nights action, or in reality the deserving winner.  The Wallabies played with energy, endeavour and a collective spirit that wasn’t inherently obvious leading into the game.  The finish was cruel and scant reward for the Wallabies who are struggling to close out games after recent second half losses to the Pumas and Springboks too.  They did however prove they will be a threat at next years World Cup by implementing a more ambitious game plan.  The game plan involved keeping hold of possession for long passages of play, and adding plenty of width to their play when given the chance.  Much like the Springboks did against NZ in Johannesburg, the Wallabies played at pace, refused shots at goal, and attacked the breakdown with plenty of assertiveness.

The game appeared to be headed in the expected direction when Cory Jane and Dane Coles tries cancelled out Nick Phipps’ opening effort.  However the Wallabies pressed hard before halftime to take a small lead into the second half and accelerated immediately after.  Adam Ashley-Cooper capped off his 100th game by scoring an easy try that up to five Australians were in a position to score, and at that point it appeared the All Blacks’ lack of attacking ingenuity would ultimately prove their downfall.

The comeback was eventually sparked by lock Patrick Tuipulotu’s sin-binning.  The AB’s gained confidence and momentum to firstly close the gap thanks to Aaron Smith’s quick thinking try, and later put themselves in a position to win on the back of a 80 minute Fekitoa try.

The win again proves the self-belief within the All Blacks set-up; they just don’t know how to lose.  For the Bledisloe Cup holders, Aaron Smith was tremendous even with his forward pack going backwards; Brodie Retallick was industrious; and Richie McCaw his thieving self in a below par All Blacks performance.  As a team they fell off too many tackles, coughed up too much ball, and generally lacked attacking intent.  One positive, was the opportunity to to give members of their squad some important game time in a pressure situation.

The much-improved Wallabies will take heart from the defeat.  They were the better team for most of the game.  Individually, Bernard Foley was solid, James Slipper overcame some scrum woes to be ever-present around the park, and Falou and Kuridrani dangerous every time they touched the ball.  They won’t, however, take a coach away from the defeat; coach Ewen McKenzie quit on the morning of the game.