Tag: American Football

NFL Super Bowl: Early Lines Make Patriots Favourites

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Bowl LI is looming and bookmakers have released early lines on the biggest sporting event in the American calendar. The New England Patriots are early favourites to win it for a fifth time, but face stern competition from the Atlanta Falcons and there is plenty of value to be had for NFL fans ahead of what promises to be a ferocious battle.

Early Lines

Leading bookmakers have made the New England Patriots the favourites and understandably so as they have been the most impressive team in the league this season. They breezed through the regular season with the league’s best record, despite missing QB Tom Brady for the first four games through suspension over the Deflategate fiasco, and have been untroubled in reaching the Super Bowl. They are expected to win it and the prices being touted are pretty good: Bet365, Ladbrokes and Boyle Sports are offering 20/31, Sky Bet, Coral and Betfred have 8/13 and William Hill has 5/8. You can make a healthy margin by jumping on the Patriots if you think they have what it takes. Atlanta is serious underdogs here and William Hill is offering the best price: 7/5 on a win for the Falcons.

Las Vegas has set the point spread at +3 for the Pats (-3 for the Falcons) and many bookmakers, including Bet365, have 10/11 on both outcomes. Sky Bet, Paddy Power and William Hill are all offering 5/6 on the Falcons +3 and even money on New England -3. Vegas expects it to be an exceptionally high-scoring game and has set one of the highest points totals lines in recent memory at 58 points. Sky Bet has the best odds on over 58.5 (evens), while Betfred and William Hill have the best price for under 58.5 (10/11).

Projections

If you take the season averages of the Pats and Falcons, they are on 61 points combined per game. But while the Falcons have the league’s highest scoring offence (and the Pats are not far behind on 27.6 points per game), the Patriots have the best defensive record, having given away just 15.6 points per game in the regular season. The Falcons’ defence has also hit form at just the right time, conceding far fewer points in recent weeks than they did earlier in the season. For that reason, the under 58.5 points looks good with Betfred and William Hill.

It promises to be a fantastic game, with two great offences going up against one another, and solid defences making life difficult for them. In Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, it pits two genuine superstars up against one another. They have been two of the best quarterbacks in the league this season and both deserve a Super Bowl berth. It is likely to be a close game. But when push comes to shove, the Patriots should have just a bit too much offensively for the Falcons and can outscore them.

Brady and co took apart a very strong Steelers defence in such a clinical fashion in the Conference Championship game, and it augurs well going into the Super Bowl for them. Atlanta’s defence has improved in recent weeks but has still been allowing some high points scores (21 against the Packers, 20 against the Seahawks, 32 against the Saints) and New England are better offensively than those teams. The Pats have been superb defensively, giving away just three points against the Broncos and then against the Jets towards the close of the regular season. They will concede more points against a formidable Falcons offence – containing Ryan, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman and Devont Freeman – but the team with the better defence usually wins the Super Bowl and this year that is New England. Either way, it should prove to be a tight game decided by a slender margin, so it looks better to play New England outright rather than on the spread right now as 20/31 still offers good value.

Super Bowl Favourites New England Face Huge Spread in Playoffs

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Just eight teams remain in the NFL playoffs and they are a mere two games away from reaching the Super Bowl, so it’s all getting excruciatingly tense Stateside. First up is an intriguing showdown between the Seahawks and the Falcons, before Super Bowl favourites the Patriots start their postseason campaign against the Texans.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Seattle made short work of the Lions in the Wildcard Round, routing them 26-6 in front of their home fans, but they face a much sterner test now. The Falcons finished the regular season with four wins in a row to go 11-5 and steal second seed spot ahead of the Seahawks, who ended up 10-5-1 after losing two of their final four regular season games. That means Atlanta have home field advantage, which could prove crucial here. These two teams met earlier in the season and it was a nail-biter as the Seahawks ran out 26-24 winners in Seattle in October. It is a source of great contention for the Falcons due to a pass interference call the referee missed when they were on a fourth down play late in the fourth. You would think that win would give the Seahawks confidence, but it is worth bearing in mind two things: on that day they had home field advantage and they had Earl Thomas. In Divisional Round they will have neither.

Thomas was a beast for the Seahawks this season. The Seattle safety limited Tom Brady and Drew Brees to just one touchdown pass combined over two games. The Seahawks defence only gave up seven touchdown passes in the 11 games he was on the field (albeit three of them were against Atlanta in that 26-24 win). Since his injury, they have lost three of seven and have not looked at all as solid. They are 3-4-1 on the road compared to 8-1 at home and it is hard to imagine them travelling all the way to Atlanta and getting the win. The best odds you can get on Atlanta are at around the 4/9 mark with Sky Bet, so for more value, back Atlanta -3.5 at 3/4 with Bet365.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

The Pats have been devastating this season, qualifying for the playoffs with the best record in the league at 14-2. The Texans, less so. They limped into the playoffs as fourth seed on 9-7 with the same record as the Titans but qualified as they had a better record against comparative teams. They benefited from a lucky draw in the Wildcard round as they hosted an Oakland Raiders team deprived of their star quarterback and his understudy due to an injury crisis, and went through. They are the weakest team left in the playoffs and this is expected to be a complete mismatch.

The Pats are 7/4 favourites to win the Super Bowl, while the Texans are rank outsiders at 66/1. The bookmakers have completely given up on Houston: the Texans are a massive 10/1 to win this with Boylesports, while the Pats are as low as 1/20 but best priced at 1/12 with Bet Victor. There is no value there, but the point spread is the largest in 18 years of playoff games, as Vegas has made Houston 16-point underdogs. The teams met earlier in the season on Week 3, when New England won 27-0 with a third string quarterback. This time Brady will be in the team and the Texans will be crushed. New England have covered some massive spreads in recent weeks and they can get the job done here, so the evens Paddy Power is offering on the Patriots -15.5 looks a good bet.

Patriots and Raiders battling it out for AFC top spot

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The final chapter in the regular NFL season begins on New Year’s Day and fans can look forward to an action-packed schedule full of intrigue. In the AFC the New England Patriots and the Oakland Raiders are locked in a fierce battle to emerge as number one seed and enjoy the home-field advantage that comes with it. If New England beat the Miami Dolphins, they will clinch that valuable status, but it will be easier said than done. The Raiders travel to the Denver Broncos, knowing they could end up as number one seed or fall to number five, so that is another crucial game.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

The Pats are on a six-game winning streak and have the best record in the league, leading the bookmakers to install them as favourites for the Super Bowl. William Hill has the best price, 15/8, with the Cowboys back on 4/1. New England is huge favourites to win the AFC, odds-on with all bookmakers, with 8/11 about the best price you can find with the likes of Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes. But the path to the Super Bowl will be made a lot easier for them if they earn top seed spot. Last season they blew number one spot with back-to-back losses in their last two games, against the Jets and Dolphins. The result was a tricky playoff schedule that saw them crash out to eventual Super Bowl champions the Denver Broncos.

They will be desperate to not make the same mistake this season and they know that a win over the Dolphins in their final game will clinch it. The Dolphins laboured badly against the Buffalo Bills in their last game but won it in overtime to secure a playoff berth. They are currently sixth seeds and will face the most difficult schedule, but if they win and the Chiefs lose, they move up to fifth and will avoid the Steelers in the playoffs, securing an easier tie against the Texans. They will be well up for this game, and it should prove to be a thriller. Many expect it to be close, but Dolphins’ quarterback Matt Moore is likely to struggle against the Pats’ outstanding defence, and New England can cover a -7 spread at 8/13 with Sky Bet after easily covering a record spread against the Jets last week.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Raiders are in the postseason for the first time since 2002 and went 12-3 with a 33-25 win over the Colts in week 16, but it came at a huge cost. Derek Carr’s broken fibula is a brutal blow for Oakland fans, who have waited so long for a return to the playoffs and rightly had Super Bowl dreams with Carr leading the charge. Now they have to make do with fourth-year pro Matt McGloin as his replacement and the odds on them winning the Super Bowl went out sharply. They are now as long as 28/1 to win it with Ladbrokes and nobody is giving them much of a chance. But a win at the already eliminated Broncos, whose Super Bowl defence went out with a whimper with a 33-10 defeat in Kansas City, would give McGloin confidence, and it is essential for the Raiders to get the win as the Chiefs are still in with a great chance of pipping them to the AFC West. William Hill has 4/5 on them covering a -3 spread and that looks a good bet as the Broncos are on a three-game losing streak and playing poorly.

New England Patriots can cover largest point spread in history

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With just two games to go, it is still all to play for in the AFC as just two of the six playoff places are currently filled, so there is plenty to look forward to in week 16. The Steelers and the Ravens are fighting it out in the AFC North, while the Texans and the Titans are neck and neck in the AFC South. The Patriots have run away with the AFC East, but the Dolphins are in with a great shout of earning a wildcard. The Oakland Raiders have qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2002 after beating the Chargers last weekend, but they are still not guaranteed to win their division as the Chiefs are still breathing down their necks. It promises to be another spectacular weekend, full of twists and turns as these teams go for broke.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Miami is 9-5 and hoping for a wildcard spot, but face a tough challenge when they travel to Buffalo, who are 7-7 and have only the slimmest chance of making the playoffs. Still, the Bills are better at rushing, point scoring and red zone performance than the Dolphins and are likely to derail their wildcard bid this weekend. They are odds-on favourites to win this but you can get evens with Sky Bet on them covering a -3.5 spread.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

The Pats are on a five-game winning streak, have the best record in the league and have been installed as 11/5 favourites to win the Super Bowl with 888 Sport. They host a Jets team that is down and out, with a 4-10 record leaving them bottom of the division. It should prove a complete mismatch, and as such, the best price you can get on the Patriots is 1/14 with Ladbrokes. Bookmakers are offering the largest point spread in history on the Pats, -16.5, and you can get 10/11 on that with Bet365, William Hill and various others. They have been outscoring the Jets by nine points on average this season, so there is a gap to make up, but their offence and defence are on fire at the moment, and the Jets are expected to roll over, so that actually looks a good bet.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are going to the playoffs, but they still need to keep winning to ensure a favourable schedule. The Colts are 7-7 and have a tiny chance of making it, but the Raiders should crush those hopes in front of their jubilant home fans. Back the Raiders to cover a -3.5 spread at 10/11 with William Hill, Bet Victor and Bet365.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

This is a huge game for both teams. The Chiefs have a chance of beating Oakland as division winners so will be going all out while reigning Super Bowl champions the Broncos will be out of the playoff picture if they lose. The Chiefs have been the better team this season, however, and should cover a -3.5 spread at evens with Bet365.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers can clinch the NFC North by beating Baltimore in the big Christmas Day game. The Steelers have been better at passing and rushing than the Ravens over the course of the season and come into this match on a five-game winning streak that has seen them emerge as dark horses for the conference. They should make it six in a row here, and the 10/11 Boylesports has on them covering a -4.5 spread looks good.

NFL Thanksgiving preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Thanksgiving Day football is event within itself with three salivating contests that could really shape the NFC play-off race, something that has been nothing short controversial this year! The play-off landscape is far from over with some odd races emerging around the league and as the season begins to heat up, the most important games are to come. All races will be outlined in the coming days, but seeing as the games are so close let’s focus on the holiday games just around the corner!

The games are written in chronological order.

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

H2H: Lions: 31/100, Bears: 13/5  Skybet

Handicap: Lions (-7): 23/25, Bears (+7): 23/25  Skybet

A key game in the divisional race of the NFC North sees Chicago head to Ford Field in Detroit to try and upset their division rivals in their annual Thanksgiving contest. Chicago have the form heading into the game with two wins on at home against very abject teams in the Minnesota Vikings and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Detroit are coming off a pretty resounding loss against the best team in the AFC (arguably) in the New England Patriots, but where their offense failed last week, it is very difficult to see Chicago putting up as much resistance as the Patriots did. Detroit’s pass rush is quality and Jay Cutler is always subject to panic when he see’s opposition shirts around him. Cutler’s history of turning the ball as well as his ability to get down on himself very quickly, should result in Detroit’s offense getting plenty of opportunity to wake their offense up, as they have not scored a touchdown in the previous two games. That being said Matt Stafford (The Lions’ QB) has had some trouble with throwing interceptions this year, so their success will depend on his accuracy.

Prediction:

Detroit need to win this game to stay in the divisional race with the red hot Green Bay Packers. If Chicago can slow down the Lion’s pass rush with Matt Forte, and Cutler gets the ball to all of his weapons, the Bears could steal this. But, Mr. Inconsistency never fills me with confidence. I see Detroit winning this game, but it being a bit closer then it probably should be.

Lions win 24-21

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

H2H: Cowboys: 5/9, Eagles: 29/20 Skybet

Handicap: Cowboys (-3): 39/50, Eagles (+3): 27/25 Skybet

Huge game in Arlington, Texas where the NFC East’s best teams duke it out for sole possession of first place. Back-up Eagles QB Mark Sanchez has not had much success on Thanksgiving, with the infamous “Butt Fumble” occurring two years ago when he was blown out by the Patriots as the New York Jets’ QB (it’s worth a YouTube!). He leads an Eagles team that despite having the starting QB out, are still producing well on the backs of their Running Backs LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles. However, on the other side the Cowboy’s secret weapon on DeMarco Murray behind an Offensive Line that is widely considered to be the best combination in football. The Eagles will need to rely on their front defensive line in order to win this game, they are second in the league in sacks up to this point and they will need to pressure Dallas QB Tony Romo into making mistakes, and doing their best to contain Murray, not an easy feat against this O-Line. Dallas know that the Eagles have a high turnover margin, and Mark Sanchez is known for making key mistakes. That being said, the Cowboys’ secondary got a scare last week against the Giants who used their sheer speed to get past them and put points up. Look for Eagles’ speedster Jeremy Macklin to try and do the same.

Prediction:

If you’re key to winning a game is shutting down DeMarco Murray, you are in for a long night. Dallas’ front line is strong and if all the Eagles are worrying about is keeping Murray in check, Jason Whitten (Dallas Tight End) and Dez Bryant (Dallas Receiver) will keep the score ticking over for the ‘Boys. I can’t see Sanchez making this game his own and propelling his team to the next level, but on the back of his RB and probably a Special Team’s TD from Darren Sproles, they won’t get blown out.

Cowboys win 31-24

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

H2H: 49ers: 81/100, Seahawks: 26/25 Skybet

Handicap: 49ers (-1.5): 9/10, Seahawks (+1.5): 94/100 Skybet

The best rivalry in the NFL today heads to Levi’s Stadium in California for the match of the day! With the Cardinals trying to run away with the division, this is a huge game in the NFC West as a win for either time likely deals a steady blow to the other’s playoff chances. The 49ers have won six games in a row against the Seahawks at home, and are hoping to extend that record on the back of their pass rush lead by Aldon Smith, which is finally waking up! Pressuring Russel Wilson and stoping their ability to move the chains is key in this game, but putting the Seahawks down is a very difficult thing to do. Last year’s Superbowl champs have been underperforming as of late, but seem to hit their stride last week against the division leading Arizona Cardinals where they convincingly upset the Cards’ at home. However, the 49ers’ QB Colin Kaepernick has been noticeably missing big plays from his arsenal this year, something that the 49ers desperately need to kick-start their offense. Relying on the ground game with Frank Gore (the 49ers Running Back) may be all they have to keep the chains moving, as everyone knows that while Russel Wilson is also similarly down in his statistics from last year, his legs are the key to his success. Always keeping defensive lines in a few minds has been the key to his success and couple that with the hard-running Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks RB), you have a recipe for success.

Prediction:

By far the most difficult game of the night to pick, we have to look at San Francisco’s inability to close out games as their demise. Even though Seattle has never looked great travelling to San Francisco, they at least look like they are beginning to find their form again and should provide a lot of headaches to Kaepernick and the 49ers. If he tries to reignite his big play ability getting his receivers involved, Seattle have the secondary to steadily shut that down and get some turnovers from it. The best part about this is that no matter what happens in this great game, which it almost always is when these two meet, they get to do it again in Seattle in two weeks!

Seattle wins 23-13