Tag: Andrew Balding

Lingfield Thursday Preview

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Nabatean kept our noses in front at Nottingham on Wednesday and the flat racing switches to the all-weather tomorrow for a valuable card at Lingfield.

My regular followers will know that I am always keen on Newmarket maiden form but the 1.20 sets a bit of a poser with two promising with form from HQ. William Haggas saddles Sharqeyih, second to 50-1 shot Irish Rookie on her debut in a big field. She stayed on well without being given a hard time and is a nicely-bred daughter of Shamardal.

The big danger is Marco Botti’s Alfajer, equally promising when touched off by John Gosden’s Lady Correspondent. The race has split into two divisions and I would quite happily have backed them both if they hadn’t landed in the same heat! I may be clutching at straws here but Colorada finished closer to Alfajer on her debut than she did to Sharqeyih so I am going to side with the Haggas filly.

The longest race of the day is the Listed River Eden Fillies’ Stakes at 3.20 over a mile and five furlongs. Godolphin won it last year with Speckled who is back for another try but the money has been pouring on stable companion Hidden Gold. I watched the latter when she was thrashed by Rocket Ship at Pontefract in August and I would not have considered her for a race like this at the time. However, she went from last to first under hands and heels here last time out and has clearly improved.

Kikonga has been slightly disappointing this season and was beaten here a year ago while Tamasha is taking a big step up in class after winning easily at Salisbury. It may be one of those occasions when it is wise to follow the money.

Andrew Balding has provided this column with four winners in as many days and bids to extend the sequence with Intransigent. He won a shade cosily in a very valuable race at Ascot at the start of the month and meets disappointing favourite Prince’s Trust on 2lbs better terms here. He did put in one moderate run at Goodwood but has a touch of class about him and the stable are flying at present.

I have looked at the form for the Fleur De Lys Fillies’ Stakes inside out and upside down but cannot form a strong opinion. Water Hole comes out best on official figures but this is her sixth race in a reasonably short period. Dutch Rose was unlucky last time out but all of her wins have been at seven furlongs while Gifted Girl wouldn’t be out of it with the blinkers left off. She may be the best value in a really tricky race.

Sharqeyih 1.20 @10-9 Betfair

Gifted Girl 2.50 @12-1 Bet365

Hidden Gold 3.29 @9-4 Ladbrokes

Intransigent 3.50 @3-1 Bet365

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

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Betcirca followers got off to a flying start at Windsor on Tuesday with Navigate (4-7), Magic Dancer (10-11) and Geordan Murphy (100-30).  So Noble brought the winning streak to an end with a disappointing run but we move on to Nottingham on Wednesday and I’ve picked out three on the card.

The first one that catches my eye is Storm The Stars for William Haggas in the two-year-old maiden at 3.00. He was second at Newmarket on his debut to Aloft and that looks high-class form after Aidan O’Brien’s colt finished second in the Racing Post Trophy at the weekend.

It is true that five horses finished within a length in the Newmarket race but the form should easily be good enough to win a maiden at Nottingham. The main danger could come from John Gosden’s unraced Golden Horn a son of Cape Cross. His dam never raced and Storm The Stars has experience on his side.

The handicap at 3.30 is fascinating, if only because it sees two unbeaten colts pitched in after just one race. Lightning Spear won a Kempton maiden over a year ago but trainer Olly Stevens has been unable to get him back on the track. I know that he has missed some ambitious entries in recent weeks so he is presumably regarded as more than an 85-rated horse at home.

As tempting as he is, the 426-day lay-off puts me off just enough to side with John Gosden’s Dubai Star. He made his debut at Pontefract with Robert Havlin on board while William Buick partnered stable companion and hot favourite Fallen In Line. Buick was pushing the head off his mount after a couple of furlongs while Havlin cruised along behind the leaders before easing clear to win by six lengths.

The form of the race isn’t worth the paper that it is written on but he could do no more than win and is rated 84 for his handicap debut. He clearly handles softer ground and is race-fit so gets the vote over Lightning Spear.

The third selection is Andrew Balding’s Nabatean in the staying handicap at 4.00. The Balding team have done us a few favours recently and this one looks like making up into a decent stayer next season. He was racing after a lengthy absence when fifth in a very competitive handicap at Newmarket last time. He was confidently backed that day and it looks like he will be popular with punters again on Wednesday.

Storm The Stars 3.00 @4-7 Betfair

Dubai Star 3.30 @5-2 BetVictor

Nabatean 4.00 @3-1 Bet365

Windsor Tuesday Preview

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A very nice 310-1 treble at Doncaster on Saturday courtesy of Code Red (11-1), Dungannon (8-1) and Elm Park (15-8). I hope that you were on but what happened to Emerahldz? Isn’t it just typical that Richard Fahey won the race with his second string.

Flat racing is doing its best to delay the onset of winter with the Breeders’ Cup later this week and I shall be previewing the big races in detail. In the meantime they are still racing on the level at Windsor and Tuesday’s card looks promising for favourite backers.

The action kicks off at 1.00 and Martyn Meade’s Navigate looks likely to go off at odds-on here. He ran a good race at York last time in a much better race won by Mutamakkin and had chief rival Nortron about five lengths behind in sixth. Andrew Balding’s runner was making his debut so should improve but Navigate was travelling like a winner at the furlong pole and should appreciate the shorter trip here.

Magic Dancer looks like another solid favourite in the second race. He is a son of Norse Dancer who some of you may remember was third in the 2000 Guineas and fourth in the Derby. I backed him each-way for the Derby and he looked as though he was sure to get placed but the trip just caught him out. Magic Dancer was beaten a nose on his debut but I am not quite sure how. I have watched the video several times and every time he looks like he’s won it.

We cannot desert the Balding stable after his Saturday double and Geordan Murphy was laughing at the opposition when winning here last time out. He could be let in lightly with a rating of 75 and has most to fear from Meade’s Solo Hunter. He also looked like he’d won at Chepstow last time but the photo finish revealed otherwise. Remind me never to bet on photo finishes!

In the 2.30 I am told that So Noble is still ahead of the handicapper with a 6lbs penalty. He did win with his ears pricked last time so there should be more in the locker. The danger has to be that man Fahey again with Rangi Chase who won easily in similar ground at Pontefract.

If we have put the blight on the favourites, my final selection of the day is for another course and distance winner in Dalgig. David Pipe will be bringing out his big guns for the new jumps season shortly but saddled an eight-length flat winner at Newbury at the weekend. Dalgig won easily last time and has a hood on here to prevent him from star-gazing in the closing stages. He’s actually lower in the weights if you take Mikey Ennis’s 7lbs claim into account and 8-1 was too good to miss.

Navigate 1.00 @4-6 Betfair

Magic Dancer 1.30 @10-11 Betfair

Geordan Murphy 2.00 @5-2 Bet Victor

So Noble 2.30 @13-8 Bet365

Dalgig 3.30 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Elm Park stars in 310-1 treble for Betcirca

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Andrew Balding’s Elm Park is a top price 20-1 for next season’s Epsom Derby after making all to win the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on Saturday.

The racecard had looked tricky beforehand with the soft ground and large fields but three of our four selections won at accumulative odds of 310-1. The first to come home in front was Code Red in the Listed Doncaster Stakes for William Muir.

I felt that the favourite Portamento might be vulnerable in the ground and had been impressed by Code Red’s four-length win in a minor race at Nottingham recently. Early odds of 11-1 were soon snapped up and he returned the 11-2 winner after catching the Godolphin runner inside the final furlong.

On a day when trainer Richard Fahey had four winners, it was his Emerahldz that let us down in the mile and half handicap, fading into seventh behind 14-1 stable companion Latenightrequest. The set-back proved to be temporary as our old friend Dungannon landed our 8-1 tip in the sprint against 18 rivals. I must have written as much about this gelding as I have about any flat racer in recent years and he gave us another pay day in beating Ajjaadd and Demora quite comfortably.

The final leg was his stable mate Elm Park, already a favourite of mine after tipping him successfully in his previous two races. He never looked in any trouble as he led from start to finish to beat Aloft and Celestial Path. The bookmakers quoted odds varying between 10-1 and 20-1 and I have to say that the latter is tempting.

As I mentioned in my Saturday preview, the Racing Post Trophy has a fine record for producing Derby winners with Reference Point, Authorized, Motivator, High Chaparral and Camelot the latest in a long line of dual winners. Kingston Hill won this race impressively a year ago and went on to finish second in the Derby before winning the St Leger for Roger Varian.

Elm Park does not look anything other than a middle distance horse in the making and I would be very surprised if Balding contemplated a tilt at the 2000 Guineas. I am happy to re-invest a little of Saturday’s profits on the colt for the Derby. Our 20-1 Melbourne Cup tip Mutual Regard is now a best price of 12-1 and we also have the Breeders’ Cup to look forward to.

Elm Park 2015 Epsom Derby @20-1 Ladbrokes

Doncaster Saturday Preview

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It is Racing Post Trophy day at Doncaster on Saturday with Elm Park bidding to underline his claims for next season’s Derby.

The race, formerly known as the Futurity Stakes, has been a great guide to the classics over the years. The history of the race is littered with names like Reference Point, Authorized, Motivator, High Chaparral and Camelot. The last two on that list were trained by Aidan O’Brien who also saddled St Nicholas Abbey to win this race. He is represented by Jacobean and Aloft, neither of who appear to have sufficient form to win this.

Jacobean ran on to take second on his debut while Aloft won narrowly at Newmarket. Andrew Balding’s Elm Park has 9lbs in hand on official figures following his win in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes. Things did not go entirely smoothly that day as he was bumped leaving the stalls and looked in trouble two furlongs out. Perhaps the ground was a little quick for him and he has already shown that he can handle the soft when powering home at Newbury. Having tipped him at Salisbury and Newmarket, I cannot desert him here.

The going was very testing on Friday with some two-year-olds stopping to almost a walk in the early maiden races. Andrew Balding could also be on target in the sprint with our old friend Dungannon. He helped us out at Ascot last time when winning by a short-head in similar ground and he bids to win this race for the second year in succession.

He is only 1lb higher in the ratings and my main concern is his low draw. The runners may favour the stands side if the going becomes too testing and that would leave Dungannon on wrong side.

More favourably drawn is South African import Counter Ridge, trained by Marco Botti. She almost belied of odds of 66-1 when runner-up here last month and is a bit of an unknown quantity if you’re looking for a lively outsider.

I will also be looking for some each-way value in the 2.10 race. Portamento won an egg-and-spoon race last time and looks vulnerable. Nothing went right for Manofmanytalents last time out at York and he did well to finish as close as he did behind Mattmu. However, I am not entirely convinced that he will like this ground and will side with easy Nottingham winner Code Red.

Knife Point has solid form in the mile and a quarter handicap for Hugo Palmer. He finished fourth to shock winner Farquhar at Newmarket but it is anybody’s guess whether he will handle the ground. That won’t be a concern for Emerahldz who has won on heavy at Beverley for Richard Fahey.

Code Red 2.10 @11-1 BetVictor

Emerahldz 2.40 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Dungannon 3.15 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Elm Park 3.50 @15-8 Bet365

Bath Sunday Preview

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As predicted, Champions Day proved more of a mud bath than a bloodbath for punters as the heavy ground produced several shock results. Charm Spirit was our only saviour at a generous SP of 5-1 but the big race went to Frankel’s full-brother Noble Mission. There is no illusion of grandeur about Sunday’s offering at Bath but I have picked out a trio of interesting runners.

The Fillies’ Handicap at 2.00 looks as though it should rest between Jethou and Gharaaneej. The latter is trained by John Gosden and has been runner-up on her last two starts, chasing home Nathr in the same colours at Leicester. This is the first time that she has raced over a mile and there is a slight question mark about her getting the trip. Her dam did not win beyond five furlongs, although she shapes as though she will stay.

That doubt just sways me towards Henry Candy’s Jethou Island who was fourth in a Kempton maiden auction race last time. She was beaten five lengths but the runner-up was Andrew Balding’s Geordan Murphy who easily won a maiden next time. Jethou Island would have been third in another stride or two and had to be pulled around runners to deliver her challenge. She could be the better value at around 9-2.

Another maiden with claims in a handicap for the first time is Balding’s Bikini Island. The daughter of Dynaformer races in a hood but lacked nothing in courage last time out when just beaten on the nod by The Character at Chester. She settled perfectly for David Probert that day having pulled away her chance on her previous outing. I like the way she travelled and this similarly turning track should suit her perfectly.

The one that I fear most is Headline News who has been running in better quality races. She came up against a decent sort in Rewaaya at Newmarket but the big weight concession to Bikini Island could prove too much.

My final selection is Le Maitre Chat who gave a perfect demonstration of why jockeys should not go for a run up the inside at Ascot last time. Jim Crowley tried to find a way up the inside of Quest For More and had the door slammed shut before a similar manoeuvre on that horse’s outside also failed to find daylight. By the time he got out it was all over and he must go close off only a 1lb higher mark. The form threat is See And Be Seen who beat the subsequent Cesarewitch winner Big Easy at Newmarket last time and is only up 4lbs.

Jethou Island 2.00 @9-2 Bet Victor

Bikini Island 3.05 @5-1 Paddy Power

Le Maitre Chat 3.35 @5-2 Paddy Power