Tag: Andrew Balding

Racing Preview Aug 30th

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Time Test was a very impressive winner at Sandown on Friday and looks set to be upped in class by Roger Charlton. It looked more of a staying performance to me rather than a Guineas prospect but I’m not ready to invest in the ante-post market just yet.

Saturday’s racing action opens with an impossible sprint handicap at Sandown before some more promising two-year-olds line up for the Solario Stakes. This doesn’t look like a strong renewal and Aktabantay looks vulnerable to something with a bit more scope. Future Empire fits the bill after knuckling down well to his task when beating subsequent winner Invincible Gold at Newmarket.

Godolphin has yet to win a Group 1 race this season, something that they will surely put right before long. I’m hoping to see the blue colours dominate on Saturday as Fintry makes the trip over to France for the Atalanta Stakes. Andre Fabre does not waste money on fanciful entries so we can assume that she is pretty smart. The danger could be John Gosden’s Water Hole who has won a couple of handicaps and deserves to take her chance at this level.

A huge field of handicappers go to post for the mile and a quarter handicap at 3.50. I’ve been going through the form but keep coming back to the ease with which Clon Brulee won at Newmarket last time. I don’t know the 7lb claimer and a 14 draw may not be ideal but he should go well. Forgotten Hero and Ajmany look the obvious dangers.

Chester also stages a very competitive card and B Fifty Two looks a tempting proposition in the opener. He blazed the trail here earlier in the season and comfortably holds Forest Edge on that form. More significantly, he nearly pulled off a shock win at the York Ebor festival and is housed in stall 2. He must surely go close although I am going to have a small saver on Dungannon who likes the ground and has slipped down the weights.

The seven furlong race at 2.55 is no easier to solve and plenty of people will fancy Foxtrot Tango to end his long losing run. It is true that he was second in the Irish 2000 Guineas and would win this doing cartwheels if he could reproduce that run. However, it is a long time ago now and I prefer the claims of Sir Michael Stoute’s Russian Realm. He was forced wide at York last time and is better with some give in the ground.

Finally, Whiplash Willie can gain a deserved Listed race success at 3.30. I was very disappointed with De Rigueur in the Ebor and the fast ground was blamed for his lack lustre performance. He is the main danger.

Future Empire 2.40 Sandown @9-4 William Hill

Fintry 3.15 Sandown @13-8 Betfred

Clon Brulee 3.50 Sandown @9-1 BetVictor

B Fifty Two 2.20 Chester @5-1 Paddy Power

Dungannon 2.20 Chester @10-1 William Hill (each-way)

Russian Realm 2.55 Chester @8-1 Totesport

Whiplash Willie 3.30 Chester @4-1 BetVictor

Newbury Saturday Preview

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The Lockinge Stakes is the highlight of Saturday’s Newbury card. For a race that has thrown up some top class winners, this looks a modest renewal.

The short-priced favourite is Olympic Glory, a position he owes to his Ascot victory last autumn. He had too much class for the upgraded handicapper Top Notch Tonto on that occasion, although his fitness has to be taken on trust here.

More importantly, the going is not soft and we are unlikely to see the best of “Tonto”. Tullius also stepped out of handicaps to slam Montiridge by four lengths at Sandown. That was either a fine victory or a very disappointing effort from the runner-up, but it was on soft ground.

Chopin was seventh in the Derby last year but is back to his right trip here while Aidan O’Brien saddles American import Verrazano. The colt is a Grade 1 winner in the States and finished in front of Breeders’ Cup winner Groupie Doll when fourth in the Cigar Mile. With the favourite so short, he looks the most logical alternative.

Sir Michael Stoute supplied a double for us at York on Friday and was a shade unlucky not to make it a treble with Radiator. I was slightly concerned about her having her first outing of the season but she ran a good race. The fact that Cannock Chase was able to win easily on his first run suggests that there is plenty of improvement to come, as with most of the Stoute horses. He looks the one to beat in the London Gold Cup.

Battalion takes a rise in class in the Aston Park Stakes but I’m a little worried about the drying ground for him. He won by four lengths on his first run on good ground but he did seem to be “climbing” a little and his best form is on soft and heavy. I had selected Mount Athos for Chester last week but he was pulled out owing to the soft going and this looks likely to suit him much better.

The early money has been for Hayley Turner and Bronze Angel in the seven furlong handicap at 2.40. He did show promise in the Spring Cup but I won’t be backing him at a single figure price and prefer the claims of Modern Tutor. He has joined Andrew Balding from Stoute’s yard and looked unlucky not to add to his Windsor victory last season. Balding had a great Chester with his handicappers and Oisin Murphy still claims a useful 3lbs.

Mount Athos 2.05 Newbury at 100-30 William Hill

Modern Tutor 2.40 Newbury at 17-2 BetVictor

Cannock Chase 3.15 Newbury at 4-1 William Hill

Verrazano 3.50 Newbury at 11-2 William Hill

November Handicap Preview

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John Gosden has simplified matters regarding the November Handicap by announcing the sale of the prolific winner Thomas Hobson to go jumping. He will now join the all-powerful Mullins stable and you wouldn’t bet against him making the grade in that sphere. That reduces Gosden’s entry to the top two in the handicap on Saturday, Aiken and Lahaag.

Aiken has not shown his true form this season whilst Lahaag bounced back with a win at York last time out. That was his first venture over a mile and a half and he responded to a patient ride from Paul Hanagan to swoop late. It is true that he has failed to trouble the judge twice at Doncaster but I wouldn’t read too much into that and he must have a decent chance.

I have been singing the praises of William Haggas all season for his excellent record in the big handicaps and he runs Conduct here. This one has the right profile for a race like this having started life with Sir Michael Stoute and being very lightly raced. He has had just two outings for Haggas, possibly needing the first one after a year off the track and then running third here over a mile and a quarter. Seb Sanders is booked and this likeable grey could well start favourite.

Of course there are plenty of possibilities for this end-of-season lottery but I can’t help but think Communicator is overpriced at 20-1. He was second here last year for Andrew Balding and is now running off a 3lbs lower mark.  It is true that he has not been at his best but he could just have been saved for this and he is too good to ignore at the available price.

The Queen’s Border Legend is another one with scope for improvement and came from well off the pace to win at Nottingham. I felt the leaders went off much too fast that day so he may have been slightly flattered by that victory and he also has to prove that he stays.

I’ll take the 20-1 Communicator and 7-1 about Conduct and hope that neither is drawn out in the car park!

Communicator 20-1 Bet365, Coral

Conduct 7-1 Skybet, William Hill

 

Doncaster 13th April Preview

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The flat turf racing season is slowly creaking into gear and will take centre stage next week with Newmarket’s Craven meeting. Saturday’s card at Doncaster is a league or two below that but there is some good competitive sport on offer.

The most interesting race on the card is the Doncaster Mile. The field has been reduced to six by the late withdrawal of Moonstone Magic and tactics are sure to play a big part. The one that I’m particularly interested in is Richard Fahey’s Gabrial. He was a smart three-year-old but inclined to hang during his races, a trait that he displayed when flashing past a good field at Haydock last season. He was very highly tried after that, even finding himself in the same race as Frankel at Goodwood. He is not in that class and has been gelded during the summer to keep his mind on the job. Kieren Fallon has the job of navigating his way through this small field.

The horse that I expect to prove the most serious obstacle is the tough and consistent Highland Knight. Andrew Balding’s six-year-old went on to win a Group 2 at Baden-Baden after making all in a decent handicap at Epsom. I would be very surprised if Liam Keniry does not adopt the front-running role here with Fallon stalking him on Gabrial. At 4-1, it is worth taking a chance that Gabrial is a more tractable customer than last season.

The bet365 Handicap looks almost impossible to solve. Twenty runners go to post over six furlongs with Cammidge Trophy winner Jack Dexter heading the weights. He had Our Jonathon just behind him in third that day but it could be closer on Saturday if the going stays good. My own view is that it wasn’t a particularly strong race in the Cammidge and they could both be vulnerable to something from lower in the handicap.

Thunderball won a handicap here last time out and is re-opposed by Spinatrix (2nd), King of Jazz (3rd) and Shropshire (4th). You could make a case for any of them here but Thunderball was always handy and stuck to his guns in the closing stages. He could confirm the places although I am wary of Shropshire who was going on well at the finish.

There is a host of other contenders including Sir Michael Stoute’s Duke of Firenze. His place at the head of the market owes more to the fact that he has been kept in training by Sir Michael than his actual form. Move In Time bolted up at Musselburgh on his first start for David O’Meara and could be an improver. The question mark is whether he actually stays six furlongs with all of his best form over five. His odds have been cut from 14-1 to a top price of 9-1 with Paddy Power and it could pay to follow the market.

Gabrial 4-1 William Hill
Move In Time 9-1 Paddy Power

April 10th Nottingham Preview

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The flat racing turf season has started, albeit with a bit of a whimper. The Lincoln Handicap was postponed and then provided a 20-1 winner to kick-off the so-called “Spring Double” completed by Aurora’s Encore at 66-1 in the Grand National! I don’t think even Mystic Meg will have come up with those two!

The National Hunt season still has Punchestown and the Betfred Gold Cup to come but the big flat stables are starting to roll out some quality animals this week. A midweek Nottingham card wouldn’t normally provide much excitement but there are some genuine group class horses in action on Wednesday.

The first of them is Spirit Quartz in the 3.10. The five-year-old son of Invincible Spirit was second to Aussie raider Ortensia in both the Group 2 King George Stakes and the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes last summer. On the latter occasion he had Humidor only a length and a half behind him and that horse re-opposes tomorrow. Spirit Quartz finished his season when stuck in the mud at Longchamp, this time with Humidor in front of him. I am prepared to overlook that as being a race too many. What is slightly worrying is that Robert Cowell’s horse has already been unplaced twice at Meydan in March behind Shea Shea. Hopefully the surface just didn’t suit him and he can return to his best now he is back on turf.

Another horse that I have been looking forward to is Mark Johnston’s Sir Graham Wade who is unleashed in the 3.40. He won six races last season, winning his first handicap off a mark of 80 and closing his campaign with victory in a Listed race in France. He won on everything from firm to heavy, including the Mallard Stakes at Doncaster. Kieren Fallon rode him that day and somehow managed to win cleverly in a slowly run race where four lengths covered all 12 runners at the finish. Usually that is the sign of a poor race but Sir Graham Wade won despite the slow pace and has already proved that he is better than a handicapper. Not surprisingly, Johnston is thinking along the lines of the Cup races this year so it will be a disappointment if he can’t win tomorrow.

In the 4.40 race, the word from Ed Dunlop’s stable is that Singersongwriter is better than a handicapper. Bet365 went 7-4 briefly on Tuesday but that was taken before the ink had dried and he is now showing at 10-11. That might seem a bit skinny for his first run of the season under top weight but only time will tell.

The meeting should begin with an odds-on win for Cumani and Fallon with Elhaarne and jockey Ryan Moore has an interesting book of rides. Andrew Balding also has a couple of interesting runners in handicaps with Benzanno (4.10) and Debdebdeb (5.10). It looks a well above average card for Nottingham and will be worth studying as a source of future winners.

Spirit Quartz Evens Bet365
Sir Graham Wade 6-4 William Hill
Singersongwriter 10-11 Bet365