Tag: Ante-post betting

Grand National Ante-post update

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With the excitement of Cheltenham over for another year, we can start looking forward to Aintree and the Grand National on April 11th.

There were a number of National contenders in action at the festival last week but they did not include current Aintree favourite Shutthefrontdoor. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill decided against running his Irish National winner, presumably on account of the quicker ground. He will almost certainly be the mount of Tony McCoy, his last in the race before retirement. If the champion jockey was humbled by the adulation he received at Cheltenham, what will it be like should he ride the National winner? He has said that he has no specific date/race in mind for his final ride but going out on a National winner would be hard to top.

We put up the horse at 20-1 a few weeks ago and he is now as short as 8-1 favourite. We also singled out Spring Heeled at 33-1 and the Irish raider has been clipped to a top price of 20-1 after a satisfactory comeback. Jim Culloty’s Lord Windermere was scuppered by the going change on Gold Cup day so I would not be too concerned if you snapped up some 33’s about his stable companion for Aintree.

Our third ante-post pick was Monbeg Dude and he was disappointing at Cheltenham, finishing well behind The Druids Nephew. He is apparently being tested to see if they can find a problem but it may be that the ground was just too fast for him. He does tend to get detached, even in soft ground, so he could yet be a factor at Aintree if we get a wet April.

The Druids Nephew was cut to 14-1 for the National but it was another race which caught my attention with regards to the big race. Cause Of Causes finally gained a first win over the larger obstacles when winning the National Hunt Chase under Jamie Codd. His rider had him tucked away behind the leaders all the way and produced him late on to hold Broadway Buffalo.

He races in the same colours as Shutthefrontdoor so it will be interesting to see who gets the ride. Codd did pick up a suspension for marking the horse but went on to land a second winner at the meeting and would seem the logical choice for Aintree. Cause Of Causes has 10st 9lb to carry in the National and the 33-1 on offer with William Hill looks worth snapping up. He is as short as 20-1 elsewhere.

Cause Of Causes @33-1 William Hill

Local Time 40-1 for 1000 Guineas after UAE romp

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Meydan provided flat racing fans with a taste of things to come this year with a top quality card on Thursday. The returning Dubai World Cup winner African Story failed to overcome his lengthy absence but there is no doubt who was the star of the show. Godolphin filly Local Time blew away the opposition in the UAE 1000 Guineas, winning by three and a quarter lengths.

The race was billed as a re-match between Local Time and Ad Idem after the pair had been separated by just a short-head in the trial two weeks’ ago. Ad Idem, trained by Mick de Kock, set out in front but was always travelling too keenly in the hands of Paul Hanagan. James Doyle sat in his slipstream before moving upsides with other three furlongs to run.

It was already obvious that Local Time was going much the better and she strode clear to win impressively. Stable companion Good Place ran on well to take second with Ad Idem dropping right away to finish last. A year ago I was very keen on the chances of Ihtimal for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket after a similar performance. She went on to win the UAE Oaks by a record margin before finishing third at Newmarket.

Could Local Time be in that class? She was officially rated only 89 after beating Astrelle in the Oh So Sharp Stakes in October (coincidentally a race won by subsequent Guineas winner Miss France in 2013), a rating revised to 99 after her trial victory. I would imagine this latest win puts her up to around 106. The current 1000 Guineas favourite is Aidan O’Brien’s Found who was third to Cursory Glance (112) in the Moyglare Stud Stakes before winning impressively in France. In terms of the ratings, Local Time is a lively outsider but the bookmakers quotes vary from 16-1 with Stan James to 40-1 with 888sport.

The problem for ante-post backers is guessing Godolphin’s plans for the filly. It seems very likely that she will follow Ihtimal by running in the UAE Oaks before a decision is made regarding Newmarket. If she wins well there, she could run in the UAE Derby or the Guineas. Godolphin may even be tempted to run her in the Kentucky Oaks, given her improved form on dirt.

African Story was always going to be up against it in the Al Maktoum Challenge after almost a year off the track. He never threatened to get involved, eventually finishing seventh behind Frankyfourfingers and Prince Bishop.

Local Time 1000 Guineas @40-1 888Sport, 32Red

Derby Ante-Post Preview

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The turf flat season starts this weekend and that means that the classics aren’t far away. I’ve covered the 1000 Guineas in some depth and am looking forward to Ihtimal after her impressive victories at Meydan.

I don’t really have a firm view on the 2000 Guineas, although confidence behind Australia seems to have gone into overdrive this week. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has apparently said that Istabraq is the only horse that he has trained with more class than Australia. That may seem an odd reference after all of the top class flat horses that have been through his hands, but it certainly tells us that he rates the colt very highly indeed.

I won’t be joining the stampede to take 5-2 for Newmarket because he hasn’t really clashed with the best of his contemporaries. He slaughtered a highly-rated colt in Free Eagle by six lengths at Leopardstown in a Group 3. Dermot Weld thinks a lot of the runner-up, although I’m not sure what he thought about his drubbing that day!

Two colts that I would much rather follow in 2014 are Kingston Hill and Berkshire. To my mind, they both put up eye-catching Derby trials as two-year-olds. Kingston Hill is going to run in the Guineas but it wouldn’t surprise me if Paul Cole kept Berkshire back for a race like the Dante before heading to Epsom.

Kingston Hill was brilliant when winning the Racing Post Trophy. I think he surprised Andrea Atzeni with his turn of foot that day, powering clear in the soft ground to win by four and a half lengths. I’m not too sure what he beat because 200-1 outsider Dolce N Karama was only seven lengths away in fourth. Even so, it was a smart performance and suggested he will cope with the mile and a half at Epsom.

Berkshire is a fabulous looking colt by Mount Nelson out of a Dr Devious mare. He improved about 10lbs on his debut at Newbury to win the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. There was no doubt that Paul Cole knew he had a potential classic colt on his hands and he did not race again until September. He looked in trouble a furlong out in the Royal Lodge Stakes but knuckled down bravely to win by a neck from Somewhat. The bare form leaves him a lot to do but he is going to be a very smart colt this season.

Kingston Hill at 10-1 Coral

Berkshire at 25-1 Skybet, Paddy Power

Grand National Update

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Trainers are still formulating plans for next week’s Aintree Grand National but some of the leading bookmakers are now offering NR – no bet. This development in recent years, particularly ahead of the Cheltenham festival, has transformed the ante-post betting market.

We can now bet ahead of the major events without the fear of waking up the next morning to find that your horse has been withdrawn. Naturally, the bookies do tend to trim the odds a little to off-set the risk but there is still some great value to be had.

Our long term bets on the Grand National are all still in contention. Teaforthree has more than halved in price since the weights came out while Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude are still on course for the race. Godsmejudge has pulled up twice but has contracted in price to a general 20-1 from 33-1. Trainer Alan King is a master of his trade and if anyone can get him back to his Ayr form it is he.

I would also like to add Big Shu to my ante-post portfolio with the NR-no bet proviso. I have not heard any news about his likely participation, although I do know that his trainer is reluctant to risk him unless the going is soft. He failed in his bid to win the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham festival for the second successive year. However, he lost little in defeat when a close third to the tough Balthazar King.

I like Paul Carberry as a jockey but he may have slightly overdone the waiting tactics that day. Big Shu made ground rapidly to join the leaders with three to jump but his effort fizzled out behind Balthazar King and the enigmatic Any Currency. He was only beaten a short head and three lengths on ground that was probably a bit too quick for him.

Balthazar King ran well for a long way in the National last year but he was absolutely legless at the finish and I just don’t see it as a suitable race for him. Philip Hobbs may yet be tempted to give him another try, especially if the going is fast. Maher has already indicated that he was delighted with the 10st 8lb allocated to his horse who defied a massive 12st 3lb in the La Touche Cup last season.

Big Shu at 33-1 Totesport, Boylesports (NR – No Bet)

Cheltenham Ante-Post Roundup

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It’s time for a final run-down of our ante-post portfolio for next week’s Cheltenham festival. We will be previewing each day in our regular blog with the best bets of the day but here is the state of play.

The tone of the meeting could be set by Irving in the opener. I’ve been an enthusiastic follower since he won at Ascot earlier in the season and he’s now as short as 5-2 in places.

Day two is probably the most important day of the week for our portfolio with 25-1 Sire De Grugy carrying our hopes. If he runs as he did at Ascot he will win but he has not shown his best form at the track in the past and we won’t be able to breathe easily until he’s battled up the famous hill! He is the highlight of a busy day’s betting with three in the Neptune (possibly down to two if Pipe opts for a handicap for Un Temps Pour Tout).

Thursday is the weakest day of the week although it has received a boost with the news that Annie Power is set to clash with Big Buck’s. Friday’s Gold Cup has plenty of interest for us with three likely starters (Rocky Creek and Dynaste may be taken out). King’s Palace is one of our banker bets in the Albert Bartlett and Le Rocher should give us a bold run in the Triumph. Activial is still not a certain starter but we are on NR – No bet.

Good luck with all your Cheltenham bets and join us on Monday for our preview of Tuesday’s card!

Tuesday

Supreme – Irving 16-1

Arkle Chase – Dodging Bullets 6-1

National Hunt Chase – Foxrock 9-1

Wednesday

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy 16-1

Coral Cup – Calculated Risk 40-1

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Fred Winter – Space Ship 16-1

Champion Bumper – Modus 10-1

Thursday

Byrne Group Plate – Cause Of Causes 12-1

Friday

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1, Activial 10-1

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca 16-1, Cheltenian 14-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1, Triolo D’Alene 40-1, Rocky Creek 33-1

Cheltenham ante-post update

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With the weights now out for the eleven handicap races at the Cheltenham festival, it is time to seek out a bit of early value. That is easier said than done with over 1,000 entries to wade through and the situation is further complicated with so many fancied runners not certain to get a run.

One horse that I have been following from the flat is Space Ship, now trained in Ireland. He was a good handicapper for John Gosden and is slowly improving over hurdles after three races. His flat form suggests that he will improve for a faster surface after failing to pick up in the soft ground that he has recently encountered.

The race for him is the Fred Winter and he can be backed at 16-1 (non-runner/no bet) with Bet365. He looked set to win at Gowran Park last time but just got stuck in the ground between the last two.

Another horse that I have been hoping to catch right is Cause Of Causes. He was just short of Champion Hurdle class last season but won the Ladbroke Hurdle in great style and has been slow to learn his new career over fences. JP McManus bought him last year and he’s come close in his two starts.

Whilst he can hardly be said to have crept in under the radar, his chase rating is still 7lbs less than his official figure over hurdles. The big problem is that he has no less than seven festival entries! My own preference (and that’s all it is) is for the Byrne Group Plate in which he has a featherweight 10st 4lb to carry. 12-1 (NR-No bet) seems worth a bet although the odds aren’t that great that I’ve even picked the right race!

I’m also going to take the 10-1 about Activial for the Triumph Hurdle. The offer of NR/No bet takes out the risk factor while Harry Fry debates whether to keep him for Aintree. I was impressed with his Kempton victory in a race that regularly throws up genuine Triumph contenders and I would estimate his chances at around 6 or 7-1 if he gets the go-ahead. He’ll give us a strong team with our ante-post wager on Le Rocher (14-1).

Space Ship at 16-1 (Fred Winter) Bet365*

Cause Of Causes at 12-1 (Byrne Group Plate) Bet365*

Activial at 10-1 (Triumph Hurdle) Bet365*

*All non-runner – no bet