Tag: Ante-post betting

St Leger Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With the Epsom Derby form having been torn to shreds and the Irish Derby winner soundly beaten at Ascot, the market for the season’s final classic is looking wide open. Galileo Rock has retained his position at the head of the market by virtue of the fact that he ran on doggedly at the end of both classics to finish in the frame. He may well be the obvious form choice but he does seem a bit one-paced and must be vulnerable to something with a bit of toe.

Aidan O’Brien has not even left Ruler Of The World in the race with his belief being that the horse will be better suited by a drop back to a mile and a quarter after his dire performance at the Curragh. According to the market, Queen’s Vase winner Leading Light is now exactly that for Ballydoyle. He certainly has the stamina for the race but he had to work pretty hard to shake off John Gosden’s Feel Like Dancing. The quality of the race is also open to question, although the runner-up has managed to win at Newmarket since.

Gosden may have a stronger contender in Excess Knowledge who should have won the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out. He made a belated seasonal debut at Sandown over an inadequate mile and a quarter and ran on after coming under pressure a long way from home to take third. That was against some decent older opposition in Mandour and Afsare.

Quite why jockey William Buick elected to hold him up towards the rear at Goodwood is a mystery to me. He managed to get himself boxed in when needing to get a run and it eventually cost him the race, finishing strongly in second behind Cap O’Rushes. The winner is no slouch having finished fourth in the Irish Derby, albeit as a pacemaker for Libertarian, but most observers agreed that the best horse finished second.

I was initially disappointed by the race but not half as much as the Gosden team as Buick returned in near silence. To be fair, Buick is one of the better riders and this was more of an aberration than a regular occurrence. He showed his true colours when riding a four-timer at Newmarket last weekend. I remember watching Conduit run a similar race a few years ago and he improved leaps and bounds by the time of the Leger.

The Great Voltigeur Stakes at York next week could tell us a great deal more about the leading protagonists. I am not aware of any firm declarations for the race at this stage but Gosden could run one of his Leger hopefuls, O’Brien has ten entries and Libertarian could make his reappearance. Excess Knowledge looks to be the one with most scope and can continue Gosden’s terrific record in the race.

Excess Knowledge 7-1 Ladbrokes

Nunthorpe Stakes Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Lethal Force may have established himself as the top sprinter in UK and Ireland with victories at Royal Ascot and Newmarket but he is not among the entries for the Nunthorpe. Sole Power and Shea Shea, both behind Clive Cox’s grey in the July Cup, are currently 5-1 joint-favourites but both have had plenty of racing.

Last week I was celebrating keeping faith with Moviesta when he won the King George Stakes after two unlucky defeats in top three-year-old handicaps. I was surprised to read that trainer Brian Smart was “stunned” by Moviesta’s performance. Having witnessed the horse fly jumping in his earlier races I always felt that he would settle better off a really fast pace and Goodwood’s five-furlong dash fitted the bill perfectly. He ran out a convincing winner with many of the season’s leading sprinters left trailing in his wake.

Three-year-olds have a decent record in the Nunthorpe in recent seasons with Sole Power and Margot Did winning in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Is Moviesta in that class? I think he is and he rates a cracking each-way bet at 8-1. Smart has already declared his intention to run and there aren’t any obvious ground concerns for the improving gelding.

Of the favourites, I respect Sole Power most because this is his trip. He too needs a really fast pace to produce his best and he could not quite sustain his run over six furlongs at Newmarket. He is going to be a threat if he can be kept ticking over after a long season that started way back in the spring in Dubai. I have the same reservations about Shea Shea and he races as though six furlongs is more his cup of tea.

Reckless Abandon has missed some key engagements through minor knocks this season but showed plenty of promise at Haydock earlier in the season. I still feel that six furlongs will suit him better than five and I think that was his undoing at Ascot.

Society Rock is the pick of the remainder after some consistent efforts. He grabbed Lethal Force on the line at York in the Duke Of York Stakes and is a tough, seasoned competitor in these events. I don’t see a threat coming from anything that finished behind Moviesta at Goodwood and I can see his price contracting still further before the race.

Moviesta 8-1 Paddy Power

Ebor Handicap Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Ebor is Europe’s richest Flat handicap and it takes a pretty classy horse to win it. No three-year-old has been successful since Mediterranean won it for Aidan O’Brien in 2011. Purple Moon, a third winner in the race for Luca Cumani, was the only favourite to oblige in the last fourteen years. If you take out Purple Moon, the last six winners have returned at 100-1, 25-1, 25-1, 14-1, 25-1 and 12-1.

OK, so that doesn’t inspire confidence but let’s take a look at the ante-post market. The favourite is Sir Michael Stoute’s Opinion, a good winner at Ascot before finishing an unlucky fifth in the Old Newton Cup. He was saddled with top weight in the Haydock race and Kieren Fallon was never able to get him in the clear. It was a muddling race and there’s no doubt that he can be counted an unlucky loser. Whilst he must have a chance, ante-post odds of 10-1 do not excite me, especially given the recent trend in the race.

Opinion had previously held off the late challenge of Stencive who has since gone on to run an almost identical race in the John Smith’s Cup. He could not catch his stable companion Danchai on that occasion but he is going up the handicap without winning and the distance will be foreign territory. Trainer William Haggas may have a better candidate in Sun Central who surprised me with the ease with which he won the Silver Cup over course and distance. Understandably the handicapper has raised him 8lbs for that success but he has to be on the short list.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Well Sharp was an emphatic winner at York and again at Royal Ascot but he does seem to prefer a little give in the ground. He has gone up a further 7lbs for his Ascot win and might come into calculations if the weather takes a turn for the worse.

Two horses that have been well backed are Sheikhzayedroad and Pallasator but I couldn’t have them at any price. I don’t think that the former would have gone past Forgotten Voice or Lost In The Moment at Goodwood last week even if he had got a clear run and I don’t fancy his chances of weaving through an Ebor field. Pallasator has the makings of a good old-fashioned Sir Mark Prescott gamble. He hasn’t even run yet this season and he will have to be something special to win this first time out.

I went for Ernest Hemingway at massive odds for the King George but Master O’Brien decided to save him for the Goodwood Cup. The rain caused him to abandon that decision and he’s almost certain to be carrying 10 stone if he runs here. There has been a bit of money for Roger Charlton’s Bishop Roko but he may lack a bit of experience for the hustle and bustle of this race.

I thought John Gosden’s Camborne ran an encouraging race behind Harris Tweed at Goodwood although the trainer himself admits that the horse is a law unto himself. He seems happiest going in and out of horses rather than settling into a nice rhythm. He is guaranteed to meet trouble in running in the Ebor so he could be the type to rise to the occasion.

Sun Central 12-1 Ladbrokes
Camborne 20-1 Ladbrokes

Irish Derby Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Epsom Derby victory of Ruler Of The World was overshadowed by the dramatic self-destruction of the short-priced favourite Dawn Approach. An awful lot of rubbish has been written and spoken since including talk of a cunning plan by Aidan O’Brien to beat the Guineas winner by setting a slow pace!

The general consensus seems to be that it was not a great race with Ruler Of The World given the lowest rating for a Derby winner for many a year. Five of the runners have been beaten on their reappearance with Dawn Approach (St James’s Palace Stakes) being the only subsequent winner in the field to date.

The Irish Derby sets up a rematch between the first, second and third. Godolphin have moved in to purchase Libertarian who will be running his last race out the Burke stable before switching to Bin Suroor. They have also declared a pacemaker in the form of Cap O’Rushes in the hope of ensuring a suitably strong test for Libertarian.

Ruler Of The World could be joined by stablemate Festive Cheer but there are doubts over the participation of Battle Of Marengo and Count Limonade. The prospect of a pacemaker holds no fears for Ruler Of The World who settled well at Epsom but was chased up by Ryan Moore who could see that he needed to be nearer the front. He actually felt that he hit the front a bit early and there could easily be more improvement to come.

Galileo Rock, third at Epsom, is also set to line up this weekend but already looks as though the Leger distance would suit him better. He was always handily placed in the Derby but may lack a finishing kick. He is closely matched with Sugar Boy on Sandown form in May and the latter has also changed hands this week. Certainly that Sandown race leads a lot better now than it did at the time but Libertarian has come on in leaps and bounds since then and should have his measure.

John Oxx will be represented by Little White Cloud who has been beaten in the Derrinstown Trial and the Gallinule Stakes. Jim Bolger’s Trading Leather set a good clip in the Irish Guineas but had nothing extra in the closing stages and weakened into fourth behind Magician. He won a listed race over ten furlongs last time out but is not guaranteed to stay this trip.

I can see no reason why Ruler Of The World won’t confirm his supremacy over his Epsom victims and he is a top-priced 6-5 with Sportingbet.

Northumberland Plate Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Horses that run well at Royal Ascot are often an automatic choice for punters in the following weeks. It is true that they were competing at the best quality flat racing meeting of the year but that does not necessarily mean they will be successful next time out.

Bookmakers price these horses up shorter because they know they are going to be popular. In other words, their Ascot form is built into their price so value can be hard to find. Another factor to consider is whether or not they have had a hard race and how quickly will they recover?

Tiger Cliff was well touted for the Ascot Stakes last week and received extra coverage as everyone was hoping to see Lady Cecil’s horse win. Sent off the 4-1 favourite, he was held up towards the rear by Tom Queally and ran on strongly up the straight to finish second to Well Sharp. The jockey has since come in for plenty of criticism for giving his mount too much to do but it is debatable whether he could have beaten the winner.

He is now set to renew rivalry with Lieutenant Miller (3rd), Mubaraza (4th) and Blue Bajan (6th) on the virtually the same weights in Saturday’s Northumberland Plate. On the face of it he would he should come out on top. It is worth remembering that the Plate is half a mile shorter but it is difficult to see how that might benefit any of those that were behind him at Ascot.

Tiger Cliff is a top-priced 9-2 on Saturday and could even be shorter when the 48 hour declarations are made. Second favourite is Montaser, an impressive winner at York last time and raised 5lbs for the length that be beat Clive Brittain’s Quixote. He was progressive last season with his only poor run coming in the Cesarewitch when virtually pulled up. The softer ground was blamed for that effort and he is expected to improve for his seasonal debut. He has won over this trip at Ascot last season but is now on a stone higher mark.

Richard Fahey had his team in fine form at Ascot, saddling four seconds. He has had this race in mind for his Chester Cup duo of Address Unknown and Ingleby Spirit for some time. I felt that Address Unknown was a shade fortunate to win at Chester whilst several of his rivals met trouble in running. Ingleby Spirit was ridden by 5lb claimer George Chaloner that day and may well have won in another few strides.

Tominator was also going on at the finish at Chester and now represents Well Sharp’s trainer Jonjo O’Neill. He won this race back in 2011 for the late Reg Hollinshead but is now on a 12lbs higher mark and a career high of 102. Last year’s winner Ile de Re is another that appears to have been handicapped to the hilt whilst David Lanigan’s Biographer will need some give in the ground if he is to take part. He was a springer in the Ascot Gold Cup market last week but his trainer elected to pull him out due to the fast ground.

The shape of the race will become clearer on Thursday but Ingleby Spirit rates the logical choice at this stage at 16-1. Although Montaser quickened past Quixote impressively at York, the disparity in their prices is insulting to Clive Brittain’s gelding who had previously run well in defeat at Sandown. He can also be supported at 40-1.

Ingleby Spirit 16-1 Coral

Quixote 40-1 Bet365

Royal Ascot Ante-Post Betting Round Up

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Royal Ascot is only a few days away now and it’s time to check our ante-post portfolio. Of the 12 horses backed, only one has been withdrawn and all of the remainder are now trading at shorter prices.

Chapter Seven is the one to blot my copybook. I had not reckoned on him being used as a pacemaker for Dunedin after two highly encouraging runs in competitive handicaps. As yet, the bookmakers are not offering NR/No Bet but it must be imminent. Until that happens, it is best to side only with declared runners.

My Hunt Cup hopes currently rest with Prince Of Johanne but I’m going to include Dance And Dance after getting confirmation from Ed Vaughan that he is on target for the race. His ups and downs have been well documented but basically he was second here in 2011, ran his heart out in Listed races in various countries and is only now returning to his best. As his trainer says, he is better off at the weights but he is two years older. There’s still a little each-way value at 14-1 with Ladbrokes.

The opening race of the meeting has developed into a one-horse book with Animal Kingdom all the rage. There will be some long faces if he doesn’t win but I am more interested in the value in the place market. Having secured 33’s for Aljamaaheer and 51 for Gregorian I am going to take 16-1 about Sovereign Debt. I think the Lockinge form will hold up here and that will give me three excellent place chances even if the favourite does bolt up.

Having pinned my colours firmly to the Temple Stakes form in the King’s Stand, I am also going to snap up the last of the 7-1 about Reckless Abandon. I do feel that six furlongs will ultimately prove his trip but he still has a major chance and hopefully the Cowell-trained pair can grab some place money.

I am going to stick with Society Rock at 9-2 in the Diamond Jubilee. I’m on the veteran Hawkeyethenoo at 16-1 for the same race but Society Rock seems to be in his element here.

Finally, there’s a bit of 5-1 about Beldale Memory in the Queen Mary at Betfair at the moment. I thought she would be nearer 3-1 and, as she is the only two-year-old that I’ve been impressed by this season, I’m happy to add her to my portfolio.

St James’s Palace Stakes: Magician 7-4

King’s Stand: Spirit Quartz 27-1, Kingsgate Native 14-1, Reckless Abandon 7-1 Coral

Diamond Jubilee: 16-1 Hawkeyethenoo, Society Rock 9-2 William Hill

Hunt Cup: Prince Of Johanne 20-1, Chapter Seven 20-1, Dance And Dance 14-1 Ladbrokes

Gold Cup: Estimate 10-1 Simenon 16-1

Wokingham: Duke Of Firenze 10-1 Nocturn 25-1

Queen Anne: Aljamaaheer 33-1, Gregorian 51-1, Sovereign Debt 16-1 Bet Victor

Queen Mary: Beldale Memory 5-1 Betfair