Tag: Ascot

Ascot Saturday 7th September Preview

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Ascot provides a typically competitive card on Saturday and opens with a seven-furlong handicap at 1.55. Many of these horses have been running against each other all season, taking it in turns to scoop the big prizes. Galician bolted up in the International Stakes here whilst Glen Moss landed a huge gamble at Newbury last month. Field Of Dream had his turn in the Bunbury Cup whilst Excellent Guest won the Victoria Cup in the spring.

At present, the rain seems to be largely confined to the north so the going could remain on the fast side. The bookmakers have opened up at 7-1 the field and it is difficult to be confident about any of these. Glen Moss won so easily for us at Newbury that I had to follow him at Goodwood despite an unfavourable draw. Frankie Dettori bounced him out smartly but he was a spent force inside the final furlong and back-peddled quickly. He could be worth each-way support at 16-1.

There are some nice two-year-olds about at the moment but few can boast a finer pedigree than Andrew Balding’s Casual Smile. She is by the Guineas, Derby and Arc winner Sea The Stars out of Oaks winner Casual Look. She made her debut in a good maiden at Newmarket last month and stayed on very nicely into second over seven furlongs. She has only three opponents over a mile in the 3.00 race and I’d be disappointed if she can’t see them off.

Café Society has been well backed ante-post for the Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap and there certainly looks to be plenty more to come from this colt by Motivator. He was having only the fifth start of his career when just failing to catch Bold Sniper here last time. Spencer had him locked away on the rails and drove him out with hands and heels only to lose out by a neck. He had previously won going away at Salisbury and looks weighted to win this.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Plover has not managed to add to her victory in a Kempton maiden so far but she shaped promisingly at Newmarket last time. She is stepping up from seven furlongs to a mile and did nothing but stay on in the race won by Malekat Jamal from Ghasabah. The runner-up in that race is a filly that I like a lot and Plover could be good value in a race that shouldn’t take a lot of winning.

Balding has double prospects with Dungannon in the last. He never saw any daylight in the Sandown sprint won by Burning Thread but came through strongly to finish fourth. He shaped as though he could be ready for a big run and must have each-way claims.

Glen Moss 16-1 Stan James

Casual Smile 3-1 Bet365

Café Society 6-1 Paddy Power

Plover 8-1 Bet365

Dungannon 5-1 Bet365

Ascot King George Day Preview

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King George day has arrived and a modest turn out of eight remain for the Group One event. I should have known better than to try to second guess the master of Ballydoyle. Of course, all racing fans are willing St Nicholas Abbey to pull through but it was disappointing that O’Brien promptly withdrew Ernest Hemingway without any word of explanation. Perhaps he was left in as a pacemaker? Who knows.

Most pundits are following the simple logic that Cirrus des Aigles has at least 10lbs in hand on official ratings and should therefore win. I suppose that is fair enough but he was well beaten in fifth on the only recent evidence we have and is now seven years old. The much maligned three-year-olds are represented by Trading Leather and Hillstar and 5-1 could look quite generous for the former if the favourite fails to fire.

The combination of Bolger and Manning team up with Chroussa in the first and this filly was just collared by Tapestry last time. I doubt that she is being sent over purely to keep Trading Leather company and looks worth an each-way bet at around 10-1. Ascot form is proving a bit in and out so there is no great value in Wind Fire at 2-1.

I am a big fan of Cape Peron but I do think he is being asked some difficult questions. He had a poor draw at Royal Ascot and Candy was reluctant to risk him on the firm ground. He is now lumbered with top weight and another big field to overcome so 4-1 or thereabout seems a bit miserly. Most of these have had plenty of racing but Yeager could be over-priced at 20-1 on Betfair. I notice that William Hill are only offering 10’s.

Earlier in the week we had a stab at the International with Prince Of Johanne and the gallant grey is at least declared to run. I must admit that I am a little worried that this seven furlongs will be on the sharp side. I am going to throw in a real outsider here in Ducal. He got knocked sideways coming out of the stalls at Haydock last time and then got hampered again when following Ashaadd through with his run. In the circumstances fourth was a fair effort and he is any price.

Chroussa 10-1 William Hill
Yeager 20-1 Betfair
Trading Leather 5-1 William Hill
Ducal 47-1 Betfair

Ascot International Handicap Preview

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King George Update

The serious injury to St Nicholas Abbey was sad news earlier this week and I’m sure that all racing fans are hoping that he can pull through. The O’Brien team will hopefully switch their hopes to my 150-1 ante-post selection Ernest Hemingway for the King George on Saturday. Having also taken 10-1 a place I am in a nice position to cover any losses with a lay bet. It certainly does not look the strongest King George in living memory so I’m hopeful of getting a run for my money.

International Handicap

The biggest betting race on the card is the International Handicap over seven furlongs. This seems to have attracted just about every leading player over this specialist distance. The key races for this are usually the Victoria Cup, the Hunt Cup and the Bunbury Cup and there are enough criss-crossing form lines here to give you a serious headache.

The Bunbury Cup was won by Jamie Osborne’s Field Of Dream who wore down long-time leader Es Que Love inside the final furlong. Not that far behind was Redvers whilst My Freedom weakened out of contention tamely. Field Of Dream has only incurred a 3lb penalty for that win whilst Es Que Love ran his usual game race in defeat last Saturday.

Field Of Dream was previously sixth in the Hunt Cup after an almighty gamble was scuppered by the draw. Es Que Love ran in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at the Royal meeting and finished behind Lightning Cloud and Dream Tune with Loving Spirit and Redvers just behind.

Diescentric did us a good turn when bolting up at Newcastle but has been hammered with a 10lb penalty. Julie Camacho is not keen to risk him on anything firmer than good ground so he may yet swerve this race. If you are not already confused by the older horses, there are two three-year-olds with live chances in Queensbury Rules and Ashaadd.

Queensbury Rules stayed on from the rear to take third in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. That race does not seem to have been quite as hot as in recent years but it was still a game effort. Ryan Moore has been booked so it is safe to assume that he is fancied. My concern is that he is dropping back to seven furlongs here and may find it all happening a bit quick.

Jim Goldie’s Hawkeyethenoo and the gallant Prince Of Johanne are others with a chance, especially the latter who has the assistance of the in-form Johnny Murtagh. You would expect the seven furlongs to be too sharp for a former Cambridgeshire winner but the grey seems to be getting quicker as he gets older! He also has a 3lb penalty for beating Es Que Love at Sandown and they are sure to go a good pace again here.

The draw is another factor to consider so we may need to revisit this race on Friday. At this stage, I’d side with Prince Of Johanne to continue Johnny Murtagh’s great run.

Prince Of Johanne 14-1 William Hill

King George 2013 Preview

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Last weekend we managed to pop a few winners in with Heeraat (3-1), Midnight Flower (100-30) and Waila (9-4). I was cursing myself for not tipping Peniaphobia in the Newbury Super Sprint after taking the trouble to find out that her name means a fear of poverty! I even watched a video of her previous race but was not overly impressed. Clearly Mr Fahey had left a bit to work on.

My dalliance into the golf betting market for the Open looked like paying off briefly on Sunday when Adam Scott found himself at the top of the leader board (tipped at 22-1). He really doesn’t like the closing holes does he? Fortunately he held on for a share of third and an each-way return. Ian Poulter was the only one of my pre-tournament picks to make a decent show and it certainly made it more interesting viewing.

Racing is gearing up to the King George on Saturday and Glorious Goodwood next week so plenty to look forward to. The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (whatever happened to the Diamonds?) Stakes is usually a clash of the generations and this year we have two three-year-olds pitched in against their elders.

The verdict on this year’s classic crop is that they are a moderate bunch. In fact, the best of them could even have won at Leicester last week (Telescope). Sir Michael has persuaded his owners to dig deep in their pockets to supplement Hillstar. He was beaten in a handicap at Newbury first time out, entirely due to failing to settle. He wasn’t that keen to settle at Royal Ascot either but Ryan Moore did a fine job of bringing him through late to catch Battle of Marengo.

To my mind, that form looks very weak and I doubt that even Ryan can get him home in front on Saturday. Irish Derby winner Trading Leather is more likely to be the standard bearer after seeing off the Epsom 1,2,3 at the Curragh. Having said that, only Galileo Rock ran his race so the form is debatable.

The best horse on official ratings is Cirrus des Aigles and he looks the logical answer here. The only question mark is his modest effort first time out. Trainer Corine Barande-Barbe is adamant that he just needed the run and that he will be a different proposition on Saturday. He will need to be if he is to overturn Novellist on Saint-Cloud form but he has won at Ascot before and finished second to Frankel. He would probably want a bit of rain by the weekend and there is still a suspicion that his best distance is a mile and a quarter.

I liked Ektihaam before his Ascot slip up but I am a little concerned as to how that may have affected his confidence. I wonder if Hanagan will allow him to bowl on again on Saturday. Mark Johnston’s Universal is as tough as old boots but I’ve opposed him so many times that there seems no point in giving him the kiss of death now.

St Nicholas Abbey is the main market rival to Cirrus des Aigles after another easy victory in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. The opposition was poor and his form at Ascot isn’t nearly so inspiring. He has been third here twice previously and he does seem a better horse going left handed.

Aidan O’Brien has pulled a few rabbits out of the hat this season with Magician (Irish Guineas) and Declaration of War (Eclipse) catching pundits off guard. I just wonder if he has another trick up his sleeve with Ernest Hemingway here at a massive price. I had virtually written him off until I saw him trounce some seasoned stayers in the Curragh Cup.

He was held up on the rail and then brought wide up the straight to mow down Royal Diamond and win going away by five lengths. It was an astonishing performance that almost certainly suggests he will be a Gold Cup horse next season. I never know what O’Brien’s running plans are but he is currently 150-1 on Betfair and 40-1 generally for Saturday’s race. If he runs he is capable of staying on into a place and you won’t get anything like that price.

Ernest Hemingway 150-1 Betfair, 40-1 Stan James

 

Horse Racing Preview – Saturday 13th July

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On Friday we suffered a bad case of Seconditis. The “Big Two” didn’t really fire after their victories at Royal Ascot. Rizeena seemed to hang fire and lug to her left when Doyle asked her to quicken. Perhaps the ground was too fast for her.

I’m not quite sure what to make of the Falmouth Stakes. As I mentioned in my preview, it is simply amazing how much trouble a jockey can find in a small field in the wide open spaces of Newmarket. There is no doubt that Elusive Kate would have been disqualified a few years ago for carrying Sky Lantern across the track. Apart from it being impossible to overtake something travelling diagonally in your path, the whip-cracking across the horse’s face just about put the tin hat on it!

You don’t realise how often this goes on until you see the head on footage. A classic case in point was the closing race of the Royal meeting when Shahwardi was swiped across the head by an exaggerated whipping action from Jimmy Fortune on the eventual winner. Apparently it is an accepted part of race riding. Because the jockey is facing forward, they are deemed to be unaware that they are smacking a rival over the face.

Anyway, not content with two seconds we finished off with Moviesta looking certain to win the sprint handicap and yet somehow failing to do so. Whether Mulrennan was over-confident I’m not sure but I suppose you have to hand it to Fahey’s filly, Heaven’s Guest. She has been on the go all season and just gives everything she’s got.

Our Saturday ante-post bets are on Shea Shea at 9-2 in the July Cup and Niceofyoutotellme at 12-1 in the Magnet Cup. I think the race planners have gone in for overkill this weekend as there is top quality racing at Newmarket, York and Ascot. The Magnet Cup is playing second fiddle to Newmarket which means Ascot’s Summer Mile gets third billing.

Aljamaaheer has been a good friend of mine, remarkable considering that he has still only won two races. I’ve backed him at big prices in the Lockinge and Queen Anne and collected handsomely on the each-way bet. Tomorrow he’s got to go and win a race and, on past experience, he will come second!

Godolphin’s two-year-olds are starting to get into overdrive and I think Outstrip could be one of the better ones. The horse he beat here last time bolted up on Friday and he should follow suit on Saturday.

I could write a book about the runners in the Bunbury Cup! There’s Brae Hill who seemingly likes to be alone in his races (as when winning last year), Dance And Dance trying to make up for being balloted out of the Hunt Cup and Excellent Guest who pops up when you least expect it. But I’m siding with the Irish raider Burn The Boats. He landed a gamble at the Curragh, stays a mile and could be less exposed than some of these.

Ascot also stages a £100,000 sprint handicap to open the card and last year’s 1,2,3 are back for more. I’m torn between Barnet Fair and Taajub as both ran eye-catching prep races last time out. I’m just going to go with Barnet Fair because he seems to finish his races better than Taajub.

Channel 4 are covering 10 races tomorrow. Apart from the fact that we get more racing, we also get less waffle!

Ante-Post
Niceofyoutotellme 12-1
Shea Shea 9-2

Aljamaaheer 5-2 William Hill
Outstrip 3-1 Coral
Burn The Boats 10-1 William Hill
Barnet Fair 10-1 Coral

Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview – Friday 21st June

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Hat’s off to a Royal winner and a 10-1 ante-post tip! My Gold Cup wagers on Estimate at 10-1 and Simenon at 16-1 could not have done any better. The later success of Remote and an unlucky second from Space Ship at 18-1 have left us over 40 points up on the week to date!

I could have done better had I included the American No Nay Never in my selections yesterday but you can’t get everything right. Three days down and two to go.

I’m afraid that Friday’s card could be a case of “After the Lord Mayor’s show” with the poorest card of the week. It opens with the Albany Stakes and I have to confess to knowing little or nothing about this lot. The Cecil horse will have a following for obvious reasons but that is built into her early quotes of around 7-2. In fact, it is difficult to get too excited about that race or the King Edward VII Stakes in which there appears to be no credible opposition to Battle Of Marengo.

The only doubt with the O’Brien horse is whether he genuinely stays a mile and a half. On form, the others are playing for places. I thought Greatwood could be a live outsider for the Derby after his first run behind Windhoek but he ran a stinker in the Dante Stakes. Rather like Highclere’s Bonfire last season, it is probably best to leave him alone until he shows something better.

The Coronation Stakes is a chance for Just The Judge to gain revenge on Sky Lantern for her narrow defeat in the 1000 Guineas. Connections felt that the challenge came too late to give their filly time to respond and she certainly won well at the Curragh. I’m confident she will beat Sky Lantern but I’m going to have an each-way interest in the supplemented Pavlosk too. She did me a favour when part of a huge treble for Sir Michael at York and they have stumped up £25k to run here.

The Wolferton Handicap at 4.25 is a real puzzle with several formerly smart performers hoping to regain their form at the Royal meeting. Labarinto would have a chance on his best form but he usually needs a run to put him straight and Dick Doughtywylie is capable of much better than he showed at Chester. Sheikhzayedroad put together some very quick fractions to come from last to first at Epsom but it was a strange race and he was running practically sideways up the straight.

The Queen’s Vase looks as though it should also go to Aidan O’Brien via Leading Light. There is no great value in his price either so I’ll double him up with Battle Of Marengo for a bit of interest.

I tipped Enrol to beat my old friend Nocturn at Newmarket and she didn’t quite catch him. The extra furlong should be perfect and she has drawn stall 1. I couldn’t support her from a high draw but stall 1 could present its own problems if they run down the centre as on Thursday. Even so, Ryan Moore is riding as well as anyone and can steer her home.

Win double: Battle Of Marengo (3.05) 5-6, Leading Light (5.00) 2-1 Coral

3.45
Just The Judge 3-1 Paddy Power
Pavlosk (each-way) 8-1 Paddy Power

5.35
Enrol (NAP) 7-1 Bet Victor