If you’re an Arsenal fan you might want to look away now because this Champions League betting preview is neither going to be flattering or easy to stomach. Let’s start off by getting the elephant out of the room and into the open: Arsenal was poor against Bayern Munich and probably won’t overturn the 5-1 deficit so don’t bet on them progressing to the next round.
Now that’s out of the way, let’s take a look at why Arsene Wenger’s men flopped so spectacularly in Germany. For starters, the loss of Laurent Koscielny didn’t help. The centre-back has played a pivotal role for Arsenal this season and it’s no surprise that Bayern took the opportunity to capitalise on his removal from the game during the first leg. Three goals in ten minutes with Koscielny by the sidelines just goes to highlight his importance to the side.
The Injury Hurt but it’s the Mind that’s Suffering
However, although that injury blow effectively killed off the game and Arsenal’s chances of making the Champion’s League quarter-finals, it was the team’s mental state that was the main concern. With rumours swirling that Wenger will be out at the end of the season and Bayern having done a number on the Gunners in the past, the players appeared to break far too easily. In fact, it’s something Koscielny commented on to the media after the game.
Although Wenger downplayed the “mental problems” comment by suggesting his vice-captain meant the team lacked confidence against Bayern, it appears as though the rot may have set in. Any time a player stands up and suggests there’s a psychological epidemic running through the side, it should raise a red flag to fans. Whether or not the Frenchman’s assessment is correct or not, the mere fact he said it is enough to cause an issue.
With this in mind, it’s hard to see how Arsenal can recover on March 7. Four unanswered goals would do it for them and, if you’re in the mood for a punt, you can currently get odds of 66/1 on that happening with Sun Bets. Now, while that might be a few goals too far, the second leg shouldn’t be seen as all doom and gloom for Arsenal. In fact, the betting odds suggest that the game might actually be quite close.
The Odds are Close but is the Mental Divide too Wide?
Paddy Power has its betting line set at Arsenal to win 2/1 and Bayern to win 13/10. In a similar vein, Coral’s odds makers have it 15/8 for Arsenal and 6/5 for the visitors. From this perspective, the odds aren’t predicting another 5-1 romp for Bayern. Part of that could be due to the fact Koscielny and Aaron Ramsey are likely to be fit for the game. With some extra meat in the middle and a steady head at the back, Arsenal could easily pinch a result.
Sun Bet’s 9/1 on a 2:1 win for Arsenal doesn’t look bad at the price, while Paddy Power’s 12/5 on the draw could offer some decent value. Of course, even with two key players returning, it may not be enough. If Arsenal is suffering from mental problems as Koscielny said, it will be a long night in London. A single goal early could break the team’s spirit and, if that happens, we could be on for another high scoring game.
While we’re unlikely to see Wenger’s men give up five goals at home, 3-1 Bayern looks a strong bet with odds of 14/1 at Coral. There’s no doubt Arsenal will want to salvage at least some sort of consolation from the game, but if those psychological demons strike at any point, then it’s hard to see how they’ll win the match let alone the tie.
