At first glance, the 1000 Guineas market has a very similar look to the 2000 Guineas with Aidan O’Brien holding a strong hand. Found has been favourite since winning at Longchamp in October but the filly does not carry the same confidence as her stable companion Gleneagles in the colt’s classic.
The reason is that she suffered a minor setback a few weeks’ ago and O’Brien recently suggested that she may not make the Guineas. The Irish Guineas is an alternative and it would be no great surprise to see her stable companion Together Forever take over as favourite next week.
She is also a daughter of Galileo and won three times over a mile last season, suggesting that the Oaks may be her ultimate destination. She ended her campaign with victory in the Dubai Fillies’ Mile when beating Agnes Stewart on soft ground with Lucida behind in fifth. The third and fourth have been well beaten already this season so there is a slight question mark against the form.
It is interesting to see Jim Bolger’s Lucida in to as short as 6-1 for Newmarket despite that defeat. She looked useful when winning the Rockfel Stakes and fast ground could be the key to her. Barry Hills has prepared Rockfel runner-up Fadhayyil in much the same way as he did with Ghanaati in 2009. A racecourse gallop at Newmarket was deemed sufficient as the veteran trainer approaches his second retirement from the sport.
Osaila and Redstart won the big trials at Newmarket and Newbury last week but caused little more than a ripple in the ante-post market. Osaila just held New Providence in the Nell Gwyn Stakes while Redstart effectively ended the classic pretentions of Tiggy Wiggy in the Fred Darling. Neither race really screamed classic winner but Godolphin’s Beautiful Romance ran on well in third at Newmarket and I could see her reversing the form in the classic.
I suggested taking a little of the 40-1 available about Local Time after she stormed to victory in the UAE Guineas. The Godolphin filly followed up even more impressively in the UAE Oaks but is not yet a confirmed runner for Newmarket. If, as I suspect, Found does not make the classic, there could be a large field.
Local Time @43-1 Betfair
