Tag: betting tips

Manchester City vs. Watford: Patchy Form Makes Outcome Uncertain

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If Watford can remind Manchester City that this is a Premier League game and not a Champions League clash, they may just have a shot at winning on December 14. Despite being separated by nine points in the league, Watford will not only take confidence from their recent win against Everton but from the fact City seem to have a domestic weakness this season.

On the European scene, Pep Guardiola’s men have looked strong in recent outings. A draw against Mönchengladbach was preceded by a 3-1 win over Barcelona. With nine points and a place in the knockout stages virtually secured, the Sky Blues will be looking to make a solid run after the Christmas break.

A Tale of Two Competitions

However, as can often happen when a club has one eye on Europe, form at home starts to slip, and on December 10 the Premier League favourites lost in dramatic fashion against Leicester City. Within 20 minutes of the start, Leicester not only seemed to roll back the clock to last season’s dominance over City but exposed that their opponent’s defensive frailties. Conceding three to a Leicester side that has struggled to score more than two-a-game this season is enough to make any manager question their tactics and that’s exactly how Guardiola looked on the touchline.

Although his team were able to rally in the second half, a defensive mistake by John Stones allowed Leicester to score a fourth and take the match 4-2. While that loss doesn’t put the Premier League title completely out of reach, it’s fair to say that City’s fingers are now a few inches short of touching the trophy. Indeed, with a seven point gap between City in fourth and Chelsea in first, it would take an impressive run by the Manchester side to turn things around.

Watford Could be a Stepping Stone

Fortunately, step one of that march towards the title could start on Wednesday night. With Watford showing patchy form so far this season, City could easily rebound and make a strong statement when they welcome the London side. However, if you’re expecting this to be a whitewash then you might want to save your money because Watford on the right day could put up a tough fight. Yes, if the same side that lost 6-1 to Liverpool turns up then it will be an easy night for City. But, if the players perform like they did in their 2-1 win over Leicester, then anything could happen.

For those who feel it will be a repeat of the Liverpool game, Sun Bets is currently offering 1/4 on a home win. If, however, you think the gritty, Leicester conquering version of Watford will arrive at the Etihad on Wednesday then 10/1 is your betting line.

Now, if we went from a purely form-based angle this season, betting on a home win is the way to go. In fact, if you’re looking for the best value, taking into account City’s occasional defensive faux pas, 2-1 or 3-1 at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively with William Hill looks to be the way to go.

Who Will Fire First?

What is clear, however, is that Manchester City aren’t firing on all cylinders this season and there’s a chance they may misfire again on December 14. If this does happen, a Watford win is certainly possible, but if we’re being realistic a draw would be the most likely result. 11/2 on a draw with bet365 is one of the better prices out there at the moment and might just be worth a few quid.

By all means, it should be treated as a punt given the likelihood that City will want to rectify Saturday’s embarrassing defeat, but given the way both teams have performed this season, it’s not out of the question. If one comes in on form and the other doesn’t (as has happened a few times this season), then it could easily go either way. But, if you’re looking for a sensible bet that doesn’t go too far against the grain, then City to win looks the most likely outcome this week.

Sporting Lisbon vs. Real Madrid: Will Injury Issues Hurt Real?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Real Madrid might be firing on all cylinders in La Liga this season, but the Spanish side’s form in the Champions League has been far from vintage. With two wins and two draws, one of which was against bottom of Group E Legia Warsaw, Real Madrid are currently second in the table behind Dortmund.

Although Zinedine Zidane’s men have yet to taste defeat in La Liga or the Champions League this season, they’ve certainly been tested. In fact, the last time Real squared-off against Sporting Lisbon, the players found themselves on the back foot for much of the game.

Despite playing at home, the current champions were unable to find a break against Sporting in the first half and eventually fell behind within three minutes of the restart. Thanks to some solid forward pressure by the likes of Gelson Martins and Bas Dost, Sporting finally got their reward courtesy of Cesar.

Defensive Frailties Cost Real

A series of defensive blunders from Luka Modric and Sergio Ramos gave the visitors the break they’d been searching for and they didn’t waste their opportunity. Unfortunately, Real’s attacking prowess was always there in the background and, despite being under the cosh, two late strikes from Cristiano Ronaldo and Alvaro Morata stole a victory from the jaws of defeat.

Although the record books will show that Real Madrid won the match, the details certainly don’t reflect well on a side looking to defend its Champions League title. So why did Zidane’s men struggle? One thing’s for sure, it wasn’t for a lack of opportunities. According to the stats, Real had 15 shots during the game; 11 of which were inside the box. The problem, however, is that just three of those were on target.

That kind of strike-to-target ratio is simply not good enough in the Champions League. Indeed, when you consider that Sporting had seven shots on target and an accuracy rating of 66.7%, it’s easy to see how they almost nicked the game with a single goal.

Of course, all the blame doesn’t sit with the frontline. Sporting’s goal came as the result of a defensive error and, throughout the game, it didn’t look as though Ramos, Marcelo and Daniel Carvajal were working in unison. In fact, this defensive frailty was also evident during Real’s 3-3 draw with Legia Warsaw.

Odds Favour Madrid but Dynamics Could Help Sporting

This time around, the bookmakers aren’t predicting any major upsets. However, given the last match was so tight, this could be a mistake. Sun Bets currently has the home side as the 4/1 outsiders while Madrid is coming in at 3/5. Paddy Power’s team are equally pessimistic about Sporting’s chances with identical odds on a home win and 8/15 on the visitors taking all three points.

What appears to be missing from the analysis here is Real’s propensity to make mistakes at the back. While it’s true that Sporting have only managed four goals in four games, Jorge Jesus’ men have shown they’re capable of some tough forward pressure. Moreover, we already know that Cesar and Dost are more than capable of capitalising on defensive mistakes.

It’s also worth noting that Real will be heading into the match after what promises to be a tough derby game against Atletico Madrid. As is the case in any derby game, passion can often give rise to some crunching tackles and unexpected knocks. If that proves to be the case, Real could be in for a tough night on November 22.

With Morata diagnosed with a grade 2 muscle injury to his hamstring following international duty, Madrid can’t afford to lose any more players before their next Champions League match. Indeed, if Morata isn’t at full fitness, it could turn this match into a real slugfest. Although a Sporting win might be too much of a stretch, there could be some value in a draw. Coral is currently offering 3/1 on that result and, if Morata misses the game, there’s certainly a chance this could happen.

There’s Value in a Repeat

Of course, if you feel that Real will still have too much for Sporting and you want to get a little more specific, a score cast could be profitable. As we know, Madrid can score, but they can also concede. With this in mind, another 2-1 prediction in favour of the visitors could see you earn 7/1 on your stake at Coral.

On paper, this game should see Real Madrid clinch another three points. However, given the previous game and the current injury issues, things may not go to plan when the Spanish giants travel to Lisbon on November 22.

Tottenham vs. West Ham: Transfers, Injuries and Very Few Goals

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The latest London derby between Tottenham and West Ham looks set to be defined by future desires and current injuries. Although the stats currently favour Spurs, it seems as though the action off the pitch might influence the game when the game kicks off on November 19.

Indeed, heading into the match, the two teams look set to be on a transfer collision course for Liverpool’s Daniel Sturridge. With the striker failing to find his mark with the Reds this season, a January transfer could be on the horizon, but where will he go? According to an article by Bleacher Report, Tottenham is eager to sign the goal-getter after failing to secure a deal at the start of the season.

The Sturridge Effect Could Impact Both Teams

Mauricio Pochettino has reportedly had his eye on Sturridge for some time, and the man himself has said he is willing to move to London if he gets the chance. With 57 goals in 102 games for Liverpool, Sturridge would certainly boost a Tottenham front line that’s only managed 15 goals this season (the lowest strike rate in the top five).

However, if the bookies have it right, Sturridge will be West Ham bound in January. Ladbrokes is currently offering 7/2 on a move to the Hammers, which may mean we see the striker in claret and blue this season. Of course, the odds are merely speculative at this point, but the current situation does seem to suggest that Tottenham and West Ham are vying for Sturridge, and that could create an interesting dynamic on Saturday.

Although Sturridge will be watching his Liverpool teammates take on Southampton, there’s a chance he’ll have one eye on Tottenham vs. West Ham. In fact, both managers probably know that their performances in the lead-up to Christmas could very well play a part in Sturridge’s decision-making process. With this in mind, neither side will want to give an inch when they clash at White Hart Lane.

Holes in Both Sides Could Shift the Dynamics

Of course, transfer speculation can only have so much effect on a game, and the real issue for both clubs this time around appears to be injuries. With West Ham currently languishing in 17th place after 11 games, manager Slaven Bilic certainly won’t be happy that he could be without nine players on Saturday.

Jamie Collins, Winston Reid, Andy Carroll and Diafra Sakho are just four of the players doubtful through injury. To make matters worse, Mark Noble won’t be eligible because of a ban, which means West Ham could be lacking in all areas of the park when they travel across London to Tottenham.

That fact will come as a blow to Hammers fans as they have yet to see their side gain any real momentum this season. Three wins from 11, and just six-goal strikes of a side that could easily slip into a regulation dogfight in the post-Christmas run.

However, if there was ever a glimmer of hope, then it’s the news that Pochettino has his own injury crisis to worry about. With Christian Eriksen injuring his foot for Denmark, Tottenham may now be without seven key players. Indeed, with Mousa Dembele and Vincent Janssen also suffering knocks while away on international duty, the Spurs side that’s currently gone unbeaten in 11 could look decidedly shaky on Saturday.

Odds Are We Won’t See Many Goals

Spurs’ injury worries don’t seem to have affected the odds, however. Scanning through the Premier League betting options at Sun Bets this week shows Tottenham as heavy favourites for the game. 8/15 is the current price on a home win, while a draw and away win are 16/5 and 5/1 respectively.

Given the current state of both team’s seasons, the form does suggest that a Tottenham win is on the cards. However, with transfer issues and injuries shifting the goalposts, this one might not be as cut-and-dry as the bookmakers believe. In fact, with the added pressure of it being a London derby, we could see West Ham’s finest raise their games and eke out a result.

In reality, the result is most likely to be a draw, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t any betting value in this match. Perhaps the most alluring bets are those involving a lack of goals. With a combined 21 goals between them so far this season (that’s nine less than Liverpool have scored on their own), this game probably won’t be a goal-fest.

7/10 on under 2.5 goals at Bet365 looks to be a good price, as does 19/20 on both teams not to score. However, if you’re looking for some real value, 0-0 or 1-1 are currently priced at 12/1 and 13/2 respectively at Stan James.

Although Tottenham remains the clear favourites for the game, there is a chance that external factors could play a part in the result. If West Ham can retrieve a point from White Hart Lane, then it’s likely to be because they ground out a goalless draw. Yes, there’s a chance both teams could surprise us and bang in goals for fun, but the chances are this one will be a goal or two either way.