Tag: Big Shu

Grand National 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Grand National is finally upon us with forty horses set to tackle the famous fences and nearly four and a half miles at Aintree. It looks as if the going is likely to be almost perfect so there should be no excuses on that score for beaten horses. Only Godsmejudge (33-1) has failed to turn up from our ante-post selections so here is the final run-down.

Teaforthree (adv. 25-1)

Rebecca Curtis is reportedly delighted with his condition after the Cheltenham Gold Cup and believes that he is in better shape than a year ago. He finished third that day with Nick Scholfield aboard and the combination must have a great chance. I think 8-1 is very short for anything in this race but I’d imagine the bookies will be pushing him out to 10-1 or 11-1 tonight in order to balance the books.

Monbeg Dude (adv. 25-1)

At the start of the season I felt that this fellow may be too small and need soft ground to win a National. He shattered my theories when jumping superbly to win at Cheltenham on good ground, although he did not reproduce that at Doncaster last time. He has “The Head Waiter” Paul Carberry on board so we may need binoculars to find him early on. I fear that they may go too quick for him but hopefully he can work his way into it second time around.

Triolo D’Alene (adv. 25-1)

I re-invested some of my Hennessy Gold Cup winnings on this one for Aintree but his odds have been going in the other direction since a puzzling run in the Gold Cup. Nicky Henderson suddenly seemed to do an about-turn and rated him “a player” at Cheltenham but he was never involved. I did read that he had breathing difficulties during the race so, assuming that the problem has been rectified, all is not lost.

Big Shu (adv. 40-1)

I added the Irish raider to my portfolio after his third in the Cross Country Chase at the Festival. He was given a lot of ground to make up that day and faded a little towards the finish but it was only his second start of the season. He still looks a rattling good each-way bet to me.

Vintage Star (89-1 Betfair)

I always look through the outsiders on the day in case I have overlooked something. I keep going back to Vintage Star because he has moved into a winning position in some decent races without getting home in the heavy ground. It is difficult to tell from his form whether he will improve for better ground but he has a squeak.

Doncaster Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Flat racing takes centre stage on Saturday with the Lincoln heralding the start of the new flat turf season in the UK and the Dubai World Cup meeting providing some top quality action from Dubai.

I must admit that I’ve never really been convinced by the Dubai World Cup meeting. It is too early in the year for many of the top stables to run their horses and has the feel of a private garden party for Sheikh Mohammed. However, I take my hat off to him this year as the card has much more strength in depth with at least three excellent races.

My methods for Doncaster used to be to look out for horses that were fit from the jumps. The going is usually soft (as it is again this year) and only the fittest horses finish their races. That is why you get horses beaten twenty and thirty lengths over a mile! The only exception was Barry Hills who used to love this meeting and always seemed to have two or three ready to go in first time out.

I’d like to think that John Gosden has a similar approach as he has certainly mastered the Lincoln over the years. He isn’t represented this year but he does run a couple on the card and they may be worth a look. Fencing has always threatened to win a big race and kicks off another campaign in the Listed Doncaster Mile.

After finishing third to Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy in 2011, the chestnut ran in the Guineas, the Dante Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes as a three-year-old. Gosden is the ultimate pessimist so he must have faith in the horse to keep him in training for another year. I’m worried about Graphic who did us a couple of good turns last season. He progressed through the handicap and ran a blinder in the Cambridgeshire under the near rail to finish fourth.

Gosden’s other runner is Romsdal in the maiden, by Halling out of a Singspiel mare. He may struggle to get the better of the street-wise Hymenaios who represents the Hannon Jnr stable.

Brae Hill was balloted out of the Lincoln so cannot add to his impressive record of 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Don’t forget, if you backed him ante-post you get your money back. I would re-invest on him for the Spring Cup but trainer Richard Fahey suggested that he was not as far forward as usual this year so I’ll pass him over. Gabrial’s Kaka is our ante-post hope for the big race and should run well for the same yard.

If you haven’t had a bet on the National yet, Big Shu is still available at 40-1 with Coral and Ladbrokes and is my best long shot. Peter Buchanan has been booked to ride so it looks like all systems go.

Ante-Post Gabrial’s Kaka at 16-1

Ante-Post Big Shu at 40-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Fencing at 3-1 Paddy Power

Grand National Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Trainers are still formulating plans for next week’s Aintree Grand National but some of the leading bookmakers are now offering NR – no bet. This development in recent years, particularly ahead of the Cheltenham festival, has transformed the ante-post betting market.

We can now bet ahead of the major events without the fear of waking up the next morning to find that your horse has been withdrawn. Naturally, the bookies do tend to trim the odds a little to off-set the risk but there is still some great value to be had.

Our long term bets on the Grand National are all still in contention. Teaforthree has more than halved in price since the weights came out while Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude are still on course for the race. Godsmejudge has pulled up twice but has contracted in price to a general 20-1 from 33-1. Trainer Alan King is a master of his trade and if anyone can get him back to his Ayr form it is he.

I would also like to add Big Shu to my ante-post portfolio with the NR-no bet proviso. I have not heard any news about his likely participation, although I do know that his trainer is reluctant to risk him unless the going is soft. He failed in his bid to win the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham festival for the second successive year. However, he lost little in defeat when a close third to the tough Balthazar King.

I like Paul Carberry as a jockey but he may have slightly overdone the waiting tactics that day. Big Shu made ground rapidly to join the leaders with three to jump but his effort fizzled out behind Balthazar King and the enigmatic Any Currency. He was only beaten a short head and three lengths on ground that was probably a bit too quick for him.

Balthazar King ran well for a long way in the National last year but he was absolutely legless at the finish and I just don’t see it as a suitable race for him. Philip Hobbs may yet be tempted to give him another try, especially if the going is fast. Maher has already indicated that he was delighted with the 10st 8lb allocated to his horse who defied a massive 12st 3lb in the La Touche Cup last season.

Big Shu at 33-1 Totesport, Boylesports (NR – No Bet)