According to the shrewdies, there are two certainties about this season’s Formula One world title – Lewis Hamilton is nailed on to win the drivers’ championship, and his team, Mercedes, are even bigger certainties to win the constructors title.
While it’s hard to bet against Hamilton, who was quickest in both practice sessions at Albert Park on Friday, the skinny odds about Mercedes taking the constructors championship might not look that attractive if Ferrari can get off to a flying start in Melbourne, and then again in the ”flyaway” races which dominate the early part of the season.
The Silver Arrows are a best priced $1.47 with Betfair to win the championship again this season, with Ferrari at $4.40 with the same company.
Should Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen confirm that the offseason testing was a good guide to the season – the Scuderia was quicker than Mercedes in the last tests in Spain – and both snatch podiums at Albert Park, interest in Ferrari will surely intensify.
A New Season So it’s All Up for Grabs
It might be wishful thinking, and it’s certainly a big if, but in Valtteri Bottas, Hamilton has a new team-mate not yet steeped in the ways Mercedes works.
The Finn is quick and talented, as he proved with strong performances in Friday’s 90-minute practice runs. That might help push Hamilton to the limit and only make the German team even harder to beat.
But Bottas is not yet bedded into the Mercedes system, and if for some reason he gets off to an uncertain start in the opening couple of races, confidence might ebb a little, giving Ferrari, with its settled driver line-up, an opening.
It may be pie in the sky, but that’s what’s so interesting at this point of a new season: everything is possible, and nobody is yet shown to be driving a dud or to have lost their form.
Red Bull is priced up at around $7.60 with Betfair’s fixed odds market, and while it is an interesting price, it is hard to see Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen actually winning enough races to give them a real shot in the constructors battle.
Hamilton tried to talk up Ferrari’s chances at the pre-race press conference on day one of the Grand Prix festival, suggesting that the Italian squad should be favourites. Vettel was doing the opposite, suggesting that testing was merely a guide that could perhaps mislead, and the real laboratory was out on the track from the first practise session onwards.
”So far we don’t know anything. We will get the first impression on Sunday. There are a lot of new things (this season),” the four-time champion Vettel told journalists.
Hamilton Sets the Friday Benchmark
Certainly, Hamilton was able to show he was in the groove right from the off on Friday, in the first 90-minute practice session posting a time of 1.24.220, more than half a second quicker than Bottas. Daniel Ricciardo was fractionally behind the Finn and just ahead of his Red Bull team-mate Verstappen.
Raikkonen was quickest of the Ferraris with Vettel just a smidgen slower.
In the second session, Vettel was second best, but he was half a second down on Hamilton. All look to have their work cut out to match the Brit on Sunday, but qualifying on Saturday will provide more clues.
