The New England Patriots have breezed to a record sixth consecutive AFC Championship game and now just the Pittsburgh Steelers stand between them and the Super Bowl. It will be a really tall order for Pittsburgh to win this one as the Pats have looked the best team in the league by some distance this season and are 11/8 favourites to win the Super Bowl (Sky Bet).
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers closed the regular season with seven straight wins to finish 11-5, winning the NFC North and qualifying as third seeds for the playoffs. They destroyed the Miami Dolphins in the Wildcard Round and then went on to face second-seeded Kansas City in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs were favourites and we tipped it to be a very close game but said the Steelers would steal it, and that is exactly what happened as they ran out 18-16 winners in a tense affair. Steelers kicker set a postseason record by scoring six field goals to edge it for Pittsburgh by the slenderest of margins. They go into the championship game as underdogs, but they will be emboldened by their recent form.
New England Patriots
New England has had the clearest run to the championship game than any of the other teams still left in the playoffs. QB Tom Brady was suspended for the first four games of the season over his role in the Deflategate fiasco, but it mattered little as the Pats powered to a 14-2 record, the best in the league. It left them as first seed in the AFC – a valuable position they squandered last season – and they sat out the Wildcard Round before securing an easy home game against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round.
Houston finished 9-7 and only scraped through thanks to an injury crisis at Oakland, and Brady duly picked them off. New England ran out 34-16 winners, covering the largest point spread in playoff history, as we suggested they would. Patriots RB Dion Lewis looked sensational as he used his lightning pace to become the first player to score on a rush, a catch and a kick return in a postseason game. With him and Brady firing on all cylinders, the Pats look invincible at present.
Projections
The Patriots beat the Steelers 27-16 in October in the regular season, but you should not read too much into that as Pittsburgh were missing QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is now back at full strength, and the Pats were blessed with the talents of star receiver Rob Gronkowski, who is now injured. The Steelers finished the regular season with the 12th best defence and have conceded just 28 points in two playoff games. Offensively they are superb as Roethlisberger has lots of great passing options, which creates gaps of space all over the field. In Le’Veon Bell they also have one of the league’s best RBs, and he has been sensational in the postseason. New England will need to shut him down to have any chance of winning.
The Steelers, meanwhile, will have to do their best to make Brady uncomfortable, as he is on a roll and has proven himself time and time again in the postseason. It looks like being a really close encounter that the Pats should just about shade, so the 5/12 on offer at Paddy Power on a New England win in front of their home crowd looks a decent bet, despite not providing a great deal of value. To get more bang for your buck, you will have to consider spread betting, and then it gets more complicated. It is not hard to imagine the Pats winning this by around three points, so they might not cover the spread and the 7/10 Bet365 has on Pittsburgh +6.5 looks a really good option as they are a competitive, battling team.
