The Ebor is Europe’s richest Flat handicap and it takes a pretty classy horse to win it. No three-year-old has been successful since Mediterranean won it for Aidan O’Brien in 2011. Purple Moon, a third winner in the race for Luca Cumani, was the only favourite to oblige in the last fourteen years. If you take out Purple Moon, the last six winners have returned at 100-1, 25-1, 25-1, 14-1, 25-1 and 12-1.
OK, so that doesn’t inspire confidence but let’s take a look at the ante-post market. The favourite is Sir Michael Stoute’s Opinion, a good winner at Ascot before finishing an unlucky fifth in the Old Newton Cup. He was saddled with top weight in the Haydock race and Kieren Fallon was never able to get him in the clear. It was a muddling race and there’s no doubt that he can be counted an unlucky loser. Whilst he must have a chance, ante-post odds of 10-1 do not excite me, especially given the recent trend in the race.
Opinion had previously held off the late challenge of Stencive who has since gone on to run an almost identical race in the John Smith’s Cup. He could not catch his stable companion Danchai on that occasion but he is going up the handicap without winning and the distance will be foreign territory. Trainer William Haggas may have a better candidate in Sun Central who surprised me with the ease with which he won the Silver Cup over course and distance. Understandably the handicapper has raised him 8lbs for that success but he has to be on the short list.
Jonjo O’Neill’s Well Sharp was an emphatic winner at York and again at Royal Ascot but he does seem to prefer a little give in the ground. He has gone up a further 7lbs for his Ascot win and might come into calculations if the weather takes a turn for the worse.
Two horses that have been well backed are Sheikhzayedroad and Pallasator but I couldn’t have them at any price. I don’t think that the former would have gone past Forgotten Voice or Lost In The Moment at Goodwood last week even if he had got a clear run and I don’t fancy his chances of weaving through an Ebor field. Pallasator has the makings of a good old-fashioned Sir Mark Prescott gamble. He hasn’t even run yet this season and he will have to be something special to win this first time out.
I went for Ernest Hemingway at massive odds for the King George but Master O’Brien decided to save him for the Goodwood Cup. The rain caused him to abandon that decision and he’s almost certain to be carrying 10 stone if he runs here. There has been a bit of money for Roger Charlton’s Bishop Roko but he may lack a bit of experience for the hustle and bustle of this race.
I thought John Gosden’s Camborne ran an encouraging race behind Harris Tweed at Goodwood although the trainer himself admits that the horse is a law unto himself. He seems happiest going in and out of horses rather than settling into a nice rhythm. He is guaranteed to meet trouble in running in the Ebor so he could be the type to rise to the occasion.
Sun Central 12-1 Ladbrokes
Camborne 20-1 Ladbrokes
