Tag: Caulfield Cup

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Caulfield Cup Review

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Admire Rakti defied top weight to land the Caulfield Cup for Japan under an inspired ride from Zac Purton, defeating Rising Romance and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.

The winner was thought to be a more likely candidate for the two-mile Melbourne Cup for which he is now the clear 5-1 favourite. Lucia Valentina confirmed the form of her recent win in the Turnbull Stakes with the Peter Moody-trained pair Brambles and Lidari running almost pound for pound in fourth and sixth respectively. The concern for supporters of Lucia Valentina at Flemington will be whether she will see out the two miles.

The British challenge was reduced to Marco Botti’s Seismos following the defection of stable companion Dandino through lameness. Seismos was scrubbed along early in the race to try to get a position from the one barrier but quickly back-peddled when the race began in earnest.

Although Admire Rakti was impressive, there are two obvious factors why the current odds make no appeal. He will almost certainly receive a penalty for the Melbourne Cup and the draw could always go against him. Zac Purton had described him as “hit and miss” before the race, hardly an overwhelming endorsement of the horse’s consistency.

Ironically, punters had plunged on the other Japanese hope Bande who was withdrawn under veterinary advice at the eleventh hour. He could now be re-routed to the Melbourne Cup but, as with Dandino, you don’t really want injury problems so close to a big race.

Protectionist, promoted to favourite after finishing fourth in the Herbert Power, is now quoted at 8-1. The form of that race was not exactly boosted by the winner Big Memory who could finish only tenth in the Caulfield Cup. The German horse impressed Craig Williams and has form over extreme distances but he has never been the easiest horse to keep sound and would not be risked on firm ground.

The challenge from Britain and Ireland is pretty low key this year following disappointments with strongly fancied runners in previous years. Perhaps their best prospect of a victory lies with Irish runner Mutual Regard, trained by recently-retired top jockey Johnny Murtagh. The five-year-old son of Hernando has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in August. Murtagh decided to keep him fresh for the Melbourne Cup and everything has gone well in the build-up to the race. He could still represent some each-way value at around 20-1.

Mutual Regard (Melbourne Cup) @20-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Caulfield Cup 2014 Preview

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The draw for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup has delivered a huge blow to the hopes of last year’s runner-up Dandino by pitching him into the outside barrier.

Craig Williams had been hopeful that the Melbourne Cup fifth would go one better at Caulfield this year with maximum confidence emanating from the Marco Botti stable. Dandino almost overcame a wide draw a year ago when flashing home in second from barrier 16 behind Fawkner. Everything has gone perfectly in his preparation but Williams will now have to ride the race of his life to get the seven-year-old home in front.

Craig Newitt faces a different set of problems aboard the stables other runner, Seismos. The son of Dalakhani beat Willing Foe by a neck in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time out and he has drawn the one barrier. Newitt will have to decide whether to try to hold his position on the inside or tuck in behind and hope that he does not get shuffled too far back.

Japanese top weight Admire Rakti has fared much better with barrier eight but this looks like a prep run for the Melbourne Cup. The two favourites to take the $3 million prize on Saturday are Lucia Valentina (drawn 12) and the other Japanese hope Bande (drawn 10). Lucia Valentina’s claims are obvious after her win in the Turnbull Stakes but she was beaten on her only previous start at this distance.

She beat French import Lidari in that race and the runner-up has sneaked in on the withdrawal of My Ambivalent at the eleventh hour. A fine draw in barrier four has further boosted confidence in Luke Nolen’s mount who is a proven stayer. There was only a whisker between he and Brambles in that race but the latter is only a reserve and would be drawn wide if sneaking in.

Horses that fared less well in the draw include Sea Moon and The Offer, drawn 21 and 19 respectively. Christophe Lemaire rides Bande with the intention apparently to race from the front on the four-year-old. Bande was only a neck behind Admire Rakti in a Grade 2 race at Hanshin in March and is marginally better off at the weights.

The Japanese were extremely disappointed at the failure of their strong raid on the prestigious Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe and are aiming to restore some International pride with a big win in Australia.

Chris Waller saddles up four runners led by Metropolitan winner Junoob from gate 15. That draw may not be unsurmountable and he looks to have a better chance than Hawkspur (9), Moriarty (7) and Who Shot Thebarman (16).

Lidari @16.0 bet365

Bande @9.0 Sportsbet*

*Sportsbet special offer – money back as a free bet up to $100 on first bet if 2nd, 3rd or 4th

Caulfield Cup Preview

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Saturday’s Caulfield Cup looks to have been thrown wide open by the barrier draw with fancied runners Hawkspur and Dandino among those out wide. Confidence in Hawkspur seems to have evaporated since he pulled barrier 16 whilst English hope Dandino faces an impossible task from stall 19.

Hawkspur put up an eye-catching trial in the Turnbull Stakes when attempting to come from last with a sweeping run up the inside rail. In a tightly-bunched field, he had to weave his way between horses and could never get to the leaders in the race won by Happy Trails. Although he cannot be dismissed with Dunaden having won from stall 18 last year, his jockey must now hope for luck in running on this notorious slow-starter.

Dandino does not possess the same turn of foot as Hawkspur and would have been a major player given any sort of low draw. However, he is really going to struggle from stall 19 and Craig Williams will have to be at his very best. Punters have deserted Hawkspur in favour of stable companion and Australian Oaks winner Royal Descent. She also endured a troubled passage along with Jet Away and it is the former Sir Henry Cecil-trained inmate that interests me most of the pair.

Jet Away looked certain to be in the first four before being snatched up when crossed by a rival close home, dropping back to sixth. He had made good progress from the rear and it could be significant that four-time Caulfield Cup winner Damien Oliver has been booked for the ride on Saturday. At odds of around 9-1, he looks a decent each-way bet. He has drawn barrier 13 which, although not ideal, does at least give his rider a chance of settling closer to the pace.

With so many of the fancied horses drawn wide, the race looks set up for a possible shock result and My Quest For Peace could step up on his previous efforts. Last year he was sent over by Luca Cumani and ran fifth here from a low draw. If you dismiss his recent efforts over distances well short of his best, he could bounce back to form for Peter Moody.

Corey Brown knows the horse well having ridden him last year and his best form in Europe came when he was up with the pace. He will be arriving late from Singapore to take the ride. At odds of around 33-1, he could represent each-way value.

Jet Away 9-1 Bet365

My Quest For Peace 33-1 Stan James, Totesport