Having already secured their progress to the knock-out stages of the UEFA Champions League for the 14th consecutive season, Wednesday’s clash between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain represents something of a straight shoot-out for top spot in Group A and – potentially – a more favourable draw in the Round of 16.
The Gunners punched their ticket to next phase of the competition with a thrilling 3-2 comeback against Bulgarian champions Ludogorets Razgrad, with Mesut Ozil’s sublime winner ensuring the North London side maintained their unbeaten start to the group despite being 2-0 down within the opening 15 minutes.
The jubilant scenes among the away supporters were, however, tempered by news of Thomas Meunier’s 90th-minute strike handing PSG all three points away to Basel, with this late victory ensuring that the two teams go into this week’s fixture deadlocked on 10 points apiece, with Arsenal ahead on goal difference.
The French Connection
The last time the two teams met in Group A, Arsenal managed to salvage a point through Alexis Sanchez’s second-half goal, but the visitors were behind within a minute when Edinson Cavani’s glancing header sent the Paris faithful into raptures. The Gunners were run ragged in the opening exchanges and were indebted to the Uruguayan’s wayward finishing as they held on before striking late in the final quarter of the game.
With Arsene Wenger’s men benefiting from home advantage this time out, the bookies are predicting a far smoother ride at the Emirates, with Arsenal priced as 13/10 favourites with Betfair ahead of PSG at 12/5 with Sky Bet. The draw, meanwhile, is available at a best price of 9/4 from Unibet, indicating that despite their slightly more favourable odds, Wednesday night’s game should largely be an evenly-matched affair.
One statistic that does stand out, however, is the fact that Arsenal has conceded in each of their last three games in all competitions, with this making 138.com’s price of 10/13 on both teams finding the back of the net seem an easy way to make money. Should these odds not appeal, you can double both teams scoring with the result, with Betfair offering 7/5 on Arsenal emerging victorious and 9/2 on PSG doing the same.
Attack! Attack! Attack!
With both sides able to field a glittering array of attacking talent, it seems fairly safe to assume that the game is unlikely to finish goalless – and the current trends in this year’s competition indicate that there may be some value to be had when betting on the time that the first goal will be scored at the Emirates.
In the two games in which they’ve conceded in Group A, Arsenal has gone behind in both the 1st and 12th minutes, while in their remaining two games they’ve opened the scoring in the 7th and 12th minute against Basel and Ludogorets respectively. It is therefore somewhat surprising to see William Hill decide that a goal in the opening 1-15 minutes is an odds-against proposition at 21/10, with this offering some potential value.
Arsenal’s current run of three games without a clean sheet also makes it strange to see 1-0 to the home side being touted as the most likely scoreline by Coral and Boyle Sports at 15/2. Given what we already know about the Gunners’ defensive frailty in the competition this year, a 2-1 victory therefore, looks more appealing at 33/4 with 138.com, and you can also get 39/4 on the visitors winning by the same scoreline.
