Tag: champions league betting

Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich Preview: Are the Gunners Mentally Broken?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If you’re an Arsenal fan you might want to look away now because this Champions League betting preview is neither going to be flattering or easy to stomach. Let’s start off by getting the elephant out of the room and into the open: Arsenal was poor against Bayern Munich and probably won’t overturn the 5-1 deficit so don’t bet on them progressing to the next round.

Now that’s out of the way, let’s take a look at why Arsene Wenger’s men flopped so spectacularly in Germany. For starters, the loss of Laurent Koscielny didn’t help. The centre-back has played a pivotal role for Arsenal this season and it’s no surprise that Bayern took the opportunity to capitalise on his removal from the game during the first leg. Three goals in ten minutes with Koscielny by the sidelines just goes to highlight his importance to the side.

The Injury Hurt but it’s the Mind that’s Suffering

However, although that injury blow effectively killed off the game and Arsenal’s chances of making the Champion’s League quarter-finals, it was the team’s mental state that was the main concern. With rumours swirling that Wenger will be out at the end of the season and Bayern having done a number on the Gunners in the past, the players appeared to break far too easily. In fact, it’s something Koscielny commented on to the media after the game.

Although Wenger downplayed the “mental problems” comment by suggesting his vice-captain meant the team lacked confidence against Bayern, it appears as though the rot may have set in. Any time a player stands up and suggests there’s a psychological epidemic running through the side, it should raise a red flag to fans. Whether or not the Frenchman’s assessment is correct or not, the mere fact he said it is enough to cause an issue.

With this in mind, it’s hard to see how Arsenal can recover on March 7. Four unanswered goals would do it for them and, if you’re in the mood for a punt, you can currently get odds of 66/1 on that happening with Sun Bets. Now, while that might be a few goals too far, the second leg shouldn’t be seen as all doom and gloom for Arsenal. In fact, the betting odds suggest that the game might actually be quite close.

The Odds are Close but is the Mental Divide too Wide?

Paddy Power has its betting line set at Arsenal to win 2/1 and Bayern to win 13/10. In a similar vein, Coral’s odds makers have it 15/8 for Arsenal and 6/5 for the visitors. From this perspective, the odds aren’t predicting another 5-1 romp for Bayern. Part of that could be due to the fact Koscielny and Aaron Ramsey are likely to be fit for the game. With some extra meat in the middle and a steady head at the back, Arsenal could easily pinch a result.

Sun Bet’s 9/1 on a 2:1 win for Arsenal doesn’t look bad at the price, while Paddy Power’s 12/5 on the draw could offer some decent value. Of course, even with two key players returning, it may not be enough. If Arsenal is suffering from mental problems as Koscielny said, it will be a long night in London. A single goal early could break the team’s spirit and, if that happens, we could be on for another high scoring game.

While we’re unlikely to see Wenger’s men give up five goals at home, 3-1 Bayern looks a strong bet with odds of 14/1 at Coral. There’s no doubt Arsenal will want to salvage at least some sort of consolation from the game, but if those psychological demons strike at any point, then it’s hard to see how they’ll win the match let alone the tie.

Can Porto Savage the “Old Lady?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Porto has long since been considered to be one of the sleeping giants of European football. They went through a golden period in 2003 and 2004. Under Jose Mourinho, they won the Europa League followed by the Champions League. In fact, that win by Porto in the 2004 Champions League season can be considered to be the last time that any club won the competition that wasn’t on the “rich list” of European clubs.

Porto has twice won Europe’s premier club competition having also won in 1987. As top European clubs became richer, the leading teams left clubs like Porto behind. Juventus are also on the list of teams that were considered to be great once upon a time. They have to go back to 1996 for their last Champions League win.

Can Juve Roll Back the Years?

Juventus are definitely a side to be respected. They reached the 2015 Champions League final and gave the mighty Barcelona a scare before eventually losing 3-1. They travel to Portugal for the first leg of their last 16 tie with Porto. Porto crushed Leicester City 5-0 in their final group game.

Once again this highlights just how strong Porto are when at home. Juventus are clearly the favourites to progress over two legs. They have the advantage of being able to play the second leg at home in Turin.

Many people feel this could be their year. Barcelona appears to be out of the competition after losing 4-0 to Paris St Germain. Some experts remain far from convinced about Bayern Munich even though they demolished Arsenal 5-1. Juventus are one of those teams that could lift the trophy should the big three of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich slip up.

Where is the Value in Portugal?

Juventus, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla are a list of four very dangerous dark horses that could go all the way. Despite this, Juventus seem poor value to travel to Porto with Bet365 offering just 6/5. Considering a draw will be a great result for Juventus or even a 2-1 defeat, this seems like poor value.

Benfica defeated Borussia Dortmund at home 1-0 in what appeared to be a similarly matched Champions League game to this one. Meanwhile, Porto can be backed at 13/5 with BetVictor and this seems like much better value. Porto has always been traditionally strong at home. It has always been their away form that has let them down.

Goals Expected In The Spanish Capital

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

THE Champions League returns this week and one of the biggest matches of the round is at the Bernabeu Stadium where 11-time champions of Europe Real Madrid host Napoli in the Spanish capital.

Madrid is a very heavy 1.57 favourite to take a first leg lead to southern Italy in a fortnight’s time, and with them sitting pretty at the top of La Liga, favourite backers will be out in force, but I am not so sure it’s the right thing to do.

Zinedine Zidane’s side hasn’t been in the best of form recently with just three wins in their last seven matches and this might not be as one-sided as the bookies will have you believe.

Madrid is unbeaten at home in the Champions League this season, but they’ve conceded in every match and they have also conceded in every one of their six group matches in this year’s Champions League and getting with goals looks the way to profit.

In those six matches not only did both teams score, but everyone featured more than 2.5 goals and the best bets in this first leg is the 1.62 on “yes” for both teams to score that is available with most bookies and 1.55 on over 2.5 goals in the match which is pretty general as well.

It’s the same story in Napoli games with both teams scoring in nine of the last ten and over 2.5 goals have come in as a winning bet in 11 of the Italian giants last 13 games and goals look a certainty.

Can we See a Shock?

The rule when Napoli play is to usually get with them at their Stadio San Paolo and oppose them away from home, but this season they’ve turned that away form on its head having only lost twice on their travels and just three times all season.

The Ciucciarelli have been totally overlooked to win this one at the 6.50 with Bet365 and Maurizio Sarri’s side has got a much better chance than those odds suggest.

The visitors are unbeaten in their last 18 matches and they offer a massive goal threat with 40 goals scored in their last 13, including SEVEN in their last away match at Bologna; Serie A’s top goal scorers can get something from this and I am taking the draw at the general 4.50.

Unlike Spanish v Italian European match-ups of yesteryear, this will be an entertaining end-to-end thriller, and at 15.00 I am going to have a very small bet on the game to end 2-2 in the correct score markets.

Benfica vs. Dortmund – Goal Fest on the Cards?

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The Champions League returns this Tuesday with a raft of exciting match-ups. While we have seen teams like Bayern and Arsenal play each other almost too frequently in recent years, this is the first time we have seen these two titans of European football coming together in a UEFA Champions League game. An intense, high-scoring game seems likely.

Dortmund

Despite a challenging ongoing domestic campaign, fourth in the Bundesliga, Dortmund were successful in powering through a group seemingly dominated by champions Real Madrid. A brace of 2:2 draws against the Spanish Giants, 14 goals in two games against Legia Warsaw and a double over Sporting Lisbon saw them top their group by away goal differential. Unlike some, Dortmund was actually rewarded for finishing top of their group with a draw against an opposition who they will feel they have every chance of progressing against.

Dortmund will again be looking to frontman Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to provide the impetus for a win against the Portuguese champions. With 15 goals 13 matches, Aubameyang is one of the form strikers currently playing in Europe; his combination of speed, strength and skill is proving to be all but unstoppable. Any chance of a result for Benfica will rely on their ability to frustrate him.

While Aubameyang will almost certainly start next Tuesday, Borussia will potentially have to deal with a number of key absences: Sven Bender, Lukasz Piszczek, Marco Reus, Marcel Schmelzer and Mario Gotze are all in doubt, while Nuri Sahin may be fit to make a return.

Benfica

Currently sitting top of Primeira Liga and looking to defend their title, Benfica has been enjoying some quality form this season. Unlucky to be pipped to top of Group B by Napoli in a group that could have gone any number of different ways, they will likely be thankful to not be facing Real Madrid, a prospect the Italians are no doubt relishing.

In squad with a number of established goal scorers and playmakers, Benfica will be looking to Konstantinos Mitroglou and Pizzi to provide the spark and ability needed to put their team past Dortmund’s quality. Benfica’s injury list is small, compared to Borussia, with Lisandro Lopez and Eduardo Salvio the only players in doubt for Tuesday.

The value

Picking apart the value here was always going to be a challenge, with no head to head data to speak of, and with erratic Dortmund so capable of both scoring and conceding with gusto. The Germans did, however, play Sporting twice in the group phase, winning both games 2:1. This gives us a slight idea how Dortmund fair against Portuguese opponents, although Benfica is a different animal to their bitter rivals.

While the instinct would be to predict goals here, the first leg of CL knockouts so often involves both teams playing conservatively, seeking each other out and trying to minimise the scoreline. Despite this, I think Dortmund will prioritise getting an away goal, potentially at the risk of conceding: BTTS is at 7/10 with Bet 365, Dortmund Win & BTTS/Yes at 10/3, and 5/1 for Benfica all seem like good value, depending on your view. Considering the injuries Dortmund may be facing, it could well be worth backing the slight underdogs at home.

 

Will PSG Topple the Mighty Barcelona?

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The Champions League is set to return after its traditional Christmas and New Year break. We have now reached the knockout stages. The pick of the last-16 ties is clearly between Paris St Germain and Barcelona. With the departure of several key players, PSG is no longer the force they have been in recent seasons.

Their league position sees them tied with Nice and three points behind Monaco. In recent seasons with the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic leading the line, they have been catering to the French title. Those days appear to have gone and this leaves this current PSG team as significant underdogs against Barcelona.

Spanish Clubs are Dominating

The big three of Spanish football of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have been dominating the Champions League in recent seasons. Madrid lifted the trophy in 2014 and 2016 with Barcelona winning in 2006, 2009, 2011 and again in 2015. Meanwhile, Atletico has been beaten finalists in 2014 and 2016. There have been two all-Spanish finals in the past three seasons and only a fool would back against that again.

Barcelona with their triple strike force of Suarez, Messi and Neymar have proved tough to stop. However, they are struggling to keep pace with rivals Real Madrid in the league. So both Barcelona and PSG have dropped a level since last season. The first leg between PSG and Barcelona will be held in Paris. PSG must at least go back to the Nou Camp with a draw to have any chance.

Looking for the Best Bets

So just why do Barcelona win so many matches? The answer is obvious. Looking back through their matches this season and with the odd exception, they always score. Even in defeat they still manage to score. The basic fact of a football match is that if you can score, your opponents must score at least twice to beat you. This is why Messi, Neymar and Suarez have been such powerful acquisitions for Barcelona.

It is tough to see how PSG can stop Barcelona from scoring but two bets stand out above all others. The first one is the 11-10 offered by BetVictor for a Barcelona victory. Even as the away team these are good odds. The second bet is for Barcelona to be ahead at half time and at full time. Bet365 are quoting 9-4 for that bet.

The fact of the matter is that while both teams have slipped this season, PSG has slipped further. Barcelona has had several key losses this season and have been very un-Barcelona like at times. They will still have far too much for PSG and will comfortably go through over two legs.

Leicester City v Club Brugge: Foxes To Finish The Job?

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If you’ll forgive us for being a little smug for a moment, in our last preview of Leicester City’s maiden UEFA Champions League campaign we successfully called the 0-0 draw with FC Copenhagen that would propel the Foxes into the knockout round – and now we’re going for two from two as they entertain Club Brugge.

Essentially, much of what was written over a fortnight ago still stands going into Tuesday night’s game, as Claudio Ranieri’s men remain one of only two sides yet to concede a goal in this season’s competition and sit proudly atop Group G with an unbelievable haul of 10 points from their opening four European fixtures.

This remarkable run of form in what is Leicester’s first foray into Champions League football couldn’t be in starker contrast to their opponent’s own efforts in the group, with Michel Preud’Homme’s team failing to secure a single point thus far, and scoring just one solitary strike during their 2-1 home defeat to FC Porto.

Having meanwhile conceded 10 goals in this season’s Champions League, the only real surprise is that Club Brugge aren’t the worst team in this year’s competition – that dishonour goes to Dinamo Zagreb, who have not only failed to put any points on the board but are also yet to find the net in any of their four CL games.

Foxes In The Hen House

Having already thrashed the Belgians 3-0 in the reverse fixture, a home assignment against the second-worst team in the tournament should present no significant problems for Leicester, with the bookmakers seemingly inclined to agree as they label the home team heavy favourites. Indeed, no matter where you look, you’ll be hard-pushed to find odds longer than the 4/9 available at Sky Bet on a Leicester City win.

With the visitors meanwhile coming in at a prohibitive 8/1 with Betfair, it really does look to be something of a sporting mismatch; and any fears that Ranieri may opt to rest some of his star players now that Group G qualification is secured are easily allayed by the fact that a win will guarantee they finish top of the table.

That being said, given the odds-on quotes available on a comfortable home victory are unlikely to get any pulses racing, we will therefore, have to look elsewhere to find our value. One of the most obvious ways to do this is by backing the Half Time/Full Time betting markets, where you can get a much more attractive 6/5 with Coral on Leicester/Leicester or an even better 10/3 on Draw/Leicester courtesy of William Hill.

They Score When They Want

Given Leicester’s tag as favourites and their opposition’s obvious shortcomings in front of goal, it doesn’t seem a huge stretch to imagine that the home side will win the game to nil; an outcome that has bizarrely been priced at an odds-against quote of 13/10 by Coral. No, the question instead seems to be exactly how many goals the Foxes can rack up against a woeful Brugge side – with plenty of big scores providing value.

Naturally, having won by a single strike in two of their three victories so far, 1-0 to Leicester remains the bookies’ favourite winning margin at prices of 6/1 with Betfair and many others. Nevertheless, given the only time Leicester have scored more than one goal in a Champions League game was in their opening fixture against Club Brugge, punters might well be tempted by a repeat 3-0 scoreline at 9/1 with Betfair.

If they fancy the Foxes to go one better and run out 4-0 winners on the night, the odds jump to 18/1 with the same site, but that would merely be the icing on the cake in what should be an easy win for Leicester.