Tag: Champions League

Champions League – Bayern Munich v Barcelona

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

We correctly forecast a win for Barcelona with Neymar on target in the first leg of their semi-final against Bayern Munich. He was outshone on the night by Lionel Messi and Barcelona’s all-star line-up have one foot in the final as they prepare for the return leg on Tuesday.

It is probably dangerous to dismiss Bayern out of hand but the fact that they are 20-1 to qualify for the final says it all. Pep Guardiola undoubtedly had a game plan at the Nou Camp to stifle the Spaniards and hope to escape with a draw. That plan looked likely to succeed until the 77th minute when Messi opened the floodgates. A second goal followed from the Argentinian within three minutes before Neymar’s injury-time goal virtually sealed the tie.

Bayern Munich beat Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate two years ago but there seems more chance of that score being reversed than of Guardiola’s side reaching the final. A spate of injuries, notably to Ribery and Robben, has left Bayern looking a pale shadow of the side that were favourites for the Champions League only a few weeks ago. They have lost their last four matches without scoring a goal and there is no encouraging news on the injury front. It will still be a makeshift side that starts on Tuesday needing to score three times without reply to take the tie into extra-time.

By contrast, Barcelona have gone from strength to strength. They brushed aside Manchester City and PSG without ever looking in danger of defeat. They have found a way for Messi, Suarez and Neymar all to play in the same side and that is a fearsome front-line by any standards. In recent weeks they have beaten Getafe 6-0 and Cordoba 8-0.

Coach Pep Guardiola has dismissed rumours of a move to Manchester City in the Premier League and is contracted to stay at Bayern until the summer of 2016. Bayern had already wrapped up the Bundesliga prior to their recent run of defeats. Ribery, Robben, Alaba, Rode and Badstuber are all out and it is difficult to see anything other than a comfortable night for Barcelona.

Barcelona to win @13-8 William Hill

Bayern Munich 0 Barcelona 2 @17-1 BetVictor

Messi to score and Barcelona win @11-4 Paddy Power

Champions League – Barcelona v Bayern Munich Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The second Champions League semi-final gets under way at the Nou Camp on Wednesday night when Barcelona face Bayern Munich in the first leg.

Barcelona were knocked out by Atletico Madrid at the semi-final stage last year but arrive here in peak form with all three strikers performing well. They were priced at 6-1 at the start of this year’s tournament but have been steadily cut to clear favourite at 7-4 ahead of both Bayern and reigning champions Real Madrid.

The reason is their dominant displays against Manchester City and PSG where they looked relatively untroubled. Luis Suarez took a long time to settle into the side but he is now playing well alongside Lionel Messi and Neymar.  With an attack that sounds like someone’s “dream team”, it is no wonder that they are favourites to win the Champions League for a fourth time in ten years.

This particular tie has the added interest of Pep Guardiola returning to his former club, this time in charge of Bayern. Having led Barcelona to 14 trophies, he is better placed than most to discover a way of beating them. The big problem for Guardiola is his massive injury list which includes several key players. The absence of Arjen Robben has been particularly keenly felt in recent matches while Franck Ribery, Holger Badstuber, David Alaba and Sebastian Rode are all absent.

Robert Lewandowski scored twice in the remarkable 6-1 second leg win over Porto but he may be forced to play in a mask on Wednesday after picking up a facial injury.  Veteran striker Claudio Pizarro was called upon in the weekend defeat at Leverkusen and Bayern will be desperate to escape with a good result here.

Neymar scored in both legs against PSG and has now scored in six of his last seven matches. The Brazilian is clearly in no mood to be overshadowed by Messi or Suarez and could be worth a bet to open the scoring here. Bayern Munich conceded three times at Porto and there must be a real danger that they could be out of this tie before the return leg. Barcelona have won their last eight Champions League appearances and have averaged over two goals per game during that spell.

Barcelona to win @8-11 Ladbrokes

Neymar to score first @5-1 Paddy Power

Neymar to score and Barcelona to win @5-2 Paddy Power

Champions League – Juventus v Real Madrid Preview

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The Champions League semi-final line-up is almost as expected with Juventus the only real surprise. The Italian giants have not reached the closing stages of this tournament since 2003 and the bookmakers rank them as 9-1 outsiders to go all the way.

They host reigning champions Real Madrid in the first leg of their semi-final on Tuesday night. The closing stages of this competition can be notoriously cagey affairs, particularly in the first leg. If the quarter-finals can be taken as any guide, this game is unlikely to buck the trend.

Juventus held on by a single goal to beat Monaco while Real Madrid looked destined for extra-time in their clash with local rivals Atletico. A red card for Arda Turan with fifteen minutes to go put Atletico firmly on the back foot and Javier Hernandez struck with just two minutes remaining. The win did little to convince the bookmakers that Real are good enough to defend their title, easing them to third favourites behind Bayern Munich and Barcelona.

The value of an away goal was illustrated when Arsenal and Chelsea were both eliminated and Juventus will be intent on preventing Real from scoring. With Benzema still absent, that means that the focus will be on Cristiano Ronaldo to carry the main threat. The Serie A champions have a fine defensive record with thirteen clean sheets this season.

They are also missing a key player on Paul Pogba and they were definitely more restrained in the quarter-finals without him. Carlos Tevez will be the main threat to the Spanish defence and he has enjoyed a great tournament with six goals already to his credit. Juventus would obviously love to have a lead to take to the Bernabeau but all of the omens suggest that this is going to be very tight.

Carlo Ancelotti has great faith in his squad and will make no excuses if they are beaten here. They were the more offensive side against Atletico in both matches and they will probably enjoy more of the ball than their opponents here. Go low on goals and it may be worth taking a little of the 7-1 on offer about a goalless draw.

Juventus 0 Real Madrid 0 @7-1 Bet365

Goals under 2.5 @8-13 Bet Victor

Champions League Preview – April 22nd

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Hat’s off to Bayern Munich for their 6-1 demolition of Porto in the Champions League on Tuesday night. I didn’t see that coming after their poor display in the first leg. Fortunately Barcelona won by a two-goal margin to give us a return on our bets for the night.

If Wednesday night’s matches follow a similar script, it will be Real Madrid and Juventus going through and bookmakers make that the most likely scenario. However, it is unlikely to be straight forward for Carlo Ancelotti’s team as they meet local rivals Atletico with the tie locked at 0-0 after the first leg.

Atletico have beaten them four times and drawn the other three in their seven previous meetings this season. They ought to know each other inside out, which would probably explain the dull stalemate in the first leg. This match looks more likely to develop at the pace of a game of chess rather than a swashbuckling goal feast.

Another factor is the current injury crisis afflicting Real. They will be without Gareth Bale, Luka Modric and Karim Benzema while Marcelo is suspended. Ancelotti believes that he has the strongest squad in Europe and that may well be the case, but they are surely going to miss four such high quality players.

Atletico are without the suspended Mario Suarez but are otherwise at full strength and will be looking to soak up the pressure and hit Real on the break. They have kept seven clean sheets in nine matches so they are well equipped to do so. The best value here may be in a low scoring game with a repeat of the 0-0 scoreline worth a bet at good odds.

In the other match, Juventus travel to Monaco defending a slender one-goal advantage. They have dominated Serie A in the last four seasons but this is the first time that they have been in the last eight since 2012-13. A semi-final place beckons and Carlos Tevez could be the man to put them there. The former journeyman Premiership player has been in great form all season and even the absence of Pogba should not prevent a win for the Italians.

They have a wealth of experience in their squad including Andrea Pirlo, Gianluigi Buffon and Patrice Evra. Monaco clung on desperately against Arsenal in the last round and, rather like PSG, this may be a step too far. It may be worth speculating on a comfortable win for Juventus.

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid DRAW @13-5 BetVictor

Real Madrid 0 Atletico 0 @10-1 BetVictor

Goals under 2.5 @8-11 William Hill

Juventus to win @7-5 Ladbrokes

Carlos Tevez to score and Juventus win @7-2 Paddy Power

Monaco 0 Juventus 3 @28-1 BetVictor

Champions League Preview – April 21st

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The Champions League semi-finalists are to be decided this week. On Tuesday night, Barcelona should ease past PSG with a comfortable 3-1 lead from the away leg but Bayern Munich face an uphill struggle to reach the last four.

The Germans went into the away leg missing several key players and were beaten 3-1. They welcome back Xabi Alonso, Thiago Alcântara, Jérôme Boateng, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lahm for the return leg. They will still be without Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben and that could be vital. Despite their fine display in the first leg, Porto can still be backed at close to even money to go through.

I don’t there are any Premiership sides that would be odds-on to overturn such a deficit but Bayern are dominant in the Bundesliga. They are twelve points clear of Wolfsburg and were elevated to Champions League favourites after beating Shakhtar 7-0. Pep Guardiola’s side have a true Champions League pedigree but Porto may still be under-estimated. Julen Lopetegui’s side can be dangerous on the break with Jackson Martinez and Ricardo Quaresma and they could be the value bet.

Barcelona have a much easier task at home to PSG after running rings around them in Paris. In fact, Luis Suarez did precisely that to David Luiz on two occasions. The £50million former Chelsea centre-back must have thought his nightmare was over after that World Cup humiliation against Germany. With Thiago Silva out through injury, Luiz could be left exposed on Tuesday night and it would be no surprise to see Barcelona ease to a comfortable victory.

The French champions do have Zlatan Ibrahimovic back in the side but they were very fortunate to get past a lack-lustre Chelsea in the last round and they simply don’t look good enough. Laurent Blanc has to try to formulate a plan for this match but I cannot see them going out to attack. I believe that they will try to stay in the tie in the first half before searching for a lifeline goal after the break. Barring a sending-off for the home side, this looks like a formality for the Spaniards to book their place in the last four.

Porto to qualify @10-11 Coral

Ricardo Quaresma to score at any time @7-1 Betfair

Luis Suarez to score and Barcelona win @6-4 Paddy Power

Lionel Messi to score and Barcelona win @10-11 Ladbrokes

Barcelona to win by 2 goals @10-3 Bet365

Champions League – Quarter-final draw and odds update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

In our September Champions League preview we recommended Atletico Madrid (25-1) and PSG (16-1) as the value bets in this season’s competition. Both sides have made it safely through to the last eight but the draw has not been kind.

Atletico Madrid gave us a tremendous run for  our money last season in reaching the final before losing in extra-time to rivals Real. They face Ronaldo and co again in the two-legged quarter-final but will be more than hopeful of causing an upset this time.

Diego Simeone’s side have beaten the reigning champions twice in the league and knocked them out of the Copa del Rey this season. That surely entitles them to some respect here but the bookmakers have them at a top price 18-1 to lift the trophy. Anyone who saw Real Madrid scrape past Roberto di Matteo’s Schalke in that astonishing second leg match will regard the champions as suspect. Their price has eased to 9-2 third favourite in the wake of that display and a defeat against Barcelona at the weekend has dented their domestic league prospects.

Ronaldo has already dragged them through a few tricky matches this season and he will be the main threat to Atletico but it should be a fascinating tie.

PSG were extremely fortunate to get past Chelsea who were guilty of sitting back against ten men in the hope of seeing out time. I am always happy to praise Jose Mourinho for his tactical genius but he failed to galvanise his troops that day. Credit to PSG for hanging on long enough to get a result but I can see why they are a longer price now than they were back in September.

As well as their average form, there is the little matter of Barcelona to overcome in the last eight. The Spaniards saw off Man City and would have run up a cricket score but for Joe Hart’s brilliance between the posts.

Bayern Munich have emerged as the new favourites and they face Porto while Juventus face Arsenal’s conqueror’s, Monaco. The Gunners came close to turning around a 3-1 deficit and Monaco were on the ropes for almost 90 minutes. Few will be rushing out to take the Coral price of 80-1. Juventus are in to 8-1 after thrashing Borussia Dortmund and could be this year’s surprise package.

Best odds

Bayern Munich 13-8 Ladbrokes

Barcelona 28-11 Unibet

Real Madrid 9-2 Ladbrokes

Juventus 8-1 Ladbrokes

Atletico Madrid 18-1 Boylesports

PSG 20-1 Paddy Power

Porto 80-1 Coral

Monaco 80-1 Coral

1/3 odds, 1,2

Quarter-finals to be played April 14th, 15th, 21st, 22nd