Champions League Preview 24th February

Chelsea managed to cling on to a 1-1 draw at PSG last week in the Champions League and it is now the turn of Premiership rivals Man City to re-start their European campaign.

City’s inexperience in Europe has cost them dearly in previous seasons but they managed to qualify from the group stages despite a miserable start to their campaign. Manuel Pellegrini will have emphasised the need for discipline to his players after City finished both legs of last season’s clash with Barcelona a man short.

A 5-0 win over Newcastle helped City close to within five points of Chelsea in the title race and will have given them the perfect tonic for Tuesday night’s game.  The return of Yaya Toure from the African Cup of Nations was a key factor in Saturday’s impressive victory but he is suspended from this match. They do at least have a fit front-line with Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko both on the mark against Newcastle and new signing Wilfried Bony waiting in the wings.

Barcelona are obviously not short of talent themselves with the daunting prospect of Messi, Neymar and Suarez in a side that has scored 22 goals in their last five away games. A shock 1-0 defeat to Malaga at the weekend dented their La Liga hopes but it was surely no more than a blip.

In Tuesday’s other game, Juventus meet Borussia Dortmund in Turin, a repeat of the 1997 UEFA Champions League final. Massimiliano Allegri’s team are unbeaten in ten home games in Europe and 45 in all competitions. Paul Pogba has been in outstanding form and they look a good bet to take a decisive advantage from the first leg.

Dortmund finished above Arsenal in Group D but got off to a terrible start in the Bundesliga. Two successive victories have helped them out of the relegation zone but it is hardly Champions League form.

There are plenty of special offers floating about on this one. Bet365 are a free in-play bet of up to £50 on the game for anyone betting pre-match. This is only available to customers in the UK and the Republic of Ireland.

New customers to Betfair can have odds of 5-1 about a Barcelona victory or 9-1 if you fancy Man City to triumph in the first leg. This applies up to a maximum stake of £10. New Unibet customers can have 6-1 against a City victory up to £10.

Best Bet

Juventus to beat Dortmund @11-10 Paddy Power

Real Madrid and Porto for Champions League double

There are two further Champions League matches on Wednesday night with Real Madrid away to Schalke and Basel at home to Bayern Munich. If you were expecting to see the Premiership teams in action after Chelsea on Tuesday, the matches are being dragged out over the next fortnight. Arsenal and Man City return to the fray next week.

Real Madrid thrashed Schalke 6-1 in the corresponding fixture last season with Ronaldo, Bale and Benzima helping themselves to two goals apiece. A 3-1 defeat in the return leg consigned Schalke to a 9-2 aggregate thrashing. Former Champions League winning manager Roberto Di Matteo is now at the helm for Schalke and they are expected to put up stronger resistance this time.

Di Matteo has brought in Matija Nastasić on loan from Manchester City and his side are now back in the top four in Germany. Summer signing Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting has already scored nine goals in the Bundesliga but they were taken apart by Chelsea in the group stages and it is difficult to see them holding out for 90 minutes.

Swiss champions Basel meet Porto in the in Wednesday’s other match. Basel reached the last sixteen by holding out for a 1-1 draw at Liverpool in December, finishing second to Real Madrid in Group B. Basel beat Liverpool 1-0 at St. Jakob-Park and restricted Real to a single goal. That was only their second home defeat in their last eleven European home games.

Porto have not lost to a team from Switzerland since the Grasshopper Club in the 1980/81 UEFA Cup. They are unbeaten in the Champions League so far this season and finished five points clear at the top of Group H. They were held to a 2-2 draw at Shakhtar on matchday two but won their other away games at Athletic Club and FC Bate Borisov.

Porto won the competition in 2004 but have not gone beyond the semi-finals since. This is the seventh time that they have reached the last 16 since their victory and their league form suggests that they can go further this year. Porto have won ten of their last 13 matches with Colombian striker Jackson Martínez scoring 12 goals in his last 13 games. Both Porto and Real Madrid are capable of winning comfortably and the win double pays around 5-2.

Wednesday Double

Porto to beat Basel @29-20 BetVictor

Real Madrid to beat Schalke @4-9 BetVictor

PSG to grab first-leg lead over Chelsea

Premiership leaders Chelsea renew rivalry with Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16 of the Champions League on Tuesday night. The two sides met in the quarter-finals last year with PSG winning the first leg 3-1 but going out on goal difference after losing 2-0 at Stamford Bridge.

The goalscorers for Chelsea were Andre Schurrle and Demba Ba who have both since left the club. It was a fascinating tactical battle between Jose Mourinho and Laurent Blanc and it produced two fiery encounters. David Luiz scored an own-goal in the blue of Chelsea and is now playing for PSG after his £50million transfer in the summer.

Chelsea are bidding to reach the last eight of the competition for the seventh time in nine years and are currently leading the Premiership by seven points. Talk of them being unbeatable has long since been put to rest with defeats at Newcastle and Tottenham and a humbling FA Cup exit at the hands of Bradford City. They have reached the final of the Capital One Cup but it is the league and this competition on which their season will ultimately be judged.

They went out to Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals last year and face a stern test against PSG. They have looked distinctly average without Diego Costa but managed to secure vital wins over Aston Villa and Everton in his enforced absence. Their top scorer received a three-match ban for stamping on an opponent in the Cup clash with Liverpool. He will return to the side on Tuesday and it will be fascinating to see him playing against Luiz.

I have been impressed by Juan Cuadrado so far and he looks the type of player to relish these big games. Mourinho may elect to rest Willian rather than play his two wingers in the first hour of this match against a strong PSG side.

Blanc’s team have not lost in 32 home matches in European competition but they have looked vulnerable in recent league games. They have been beaten at EA Guingamp and SC Bastia and let a 2-0 lead slip away against SM Caen last weekend. Nevertheless, the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Edinson Cavani and Ezequiel Lavezzi give them plenty of attacking options. I can see this being a long night for the Blues and PSG look good value to grab a first-leg advantage.

The other Champions League match on Tuesday should go the way of Bayern Munich. The 2013 winners visit Shakhtar and are in red-hot form after winning 8-0 in the league. They should have too much class for their opponents and are worth considering in the goal and handicap markets.

PSG to beat Chelsea @7-4 Paddy Power

Bayern Munich (-1.0 handicap) to win @11-10 Paddy Power

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Arsenal and Dortmund to grind out draw

The Champions League group stages are coming to their conclusion and Arsenal can book their place in the knockout phase by taking a point from their clash with Borussia Dortmund.

The Germans need only a point from their two remaining fixtures to guarantee finishing top of the group. The theory is that the group winners will meet slightly easier opposition in the next round but everyone knows that there are no easy games in the Champions League.

What should be a clash of English and German title contenders is actually a long way short of that with both teams struggling domestically. Arsenal have lost their last two Premier League games against Chelsea and Manchester United and are already fifteen points adrift of the leaders. Realistically, the Gunners are already resigned to chasing a top four spot and ensuring Champions League football next season.

The loss of Jack Wilshere through injury is a blow to the team who had the majority of the possession against United but created very little. Ironically it was French International Olivier Giroud who brought the game to life but he is not eligible for Wednesday night’s game at the Emirates. He was expected to be out until the new year so Wenger left him out of his 25-strong squad for the qualifying group stages.

Arsenal do still have plenty of attacking options with the in-form Alexis Sanchez and Danny Welbeck leading the attack. Both players have shown flashes of brilliance in the Champions League this season and will need to do so again if they are to unlock the German defence.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have been quite superb in this tournament, scoring 13 goals and conceding just one on the way to maximum points. Their domestic form does not even come close to that with only 11 points from 12 games. Like Arsenal, they also suffered an injury set-back at the weekend with the loss of Marco Reus until the new year.

The reverse fixture resulted in a comfortable 2-0 win for Dortmund with Arsenal performing well below par. Apart from a brilliant 4-1 win over Galatasaray, Arsenal have been at their best so far this season. They looked set to dish out a thrashing to Anderlecht when racing into a 3-0 lead only to let it slip in the final thirty minutes.

Arsenal can still win the group but neither side would be too disappointed with a draw here and that looks the safest bet. The odds against a 0-0 draw also look too tempting to refuse.

Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund DRAW @13-5 BetVictor

Arsenal 0 Dortmund 0 @15-1 BetVictor

Liverpool face a tough battle in Bulgaria

Brendan Rodgers takes his Liverpool side to group minnows Ludogorets in Bulgaria on Wednesday night needing a victory to boost their flagging fortunes.

Liverpool’s second place finish in last season’s Premier League is already a distant memory as they languish in mid-table with only four wins in twelve matches. It was at Selhurst Park last season that their title dreams finally evaporated when they allowed a 3-0 lead to slip away.

Events in Brazil led to the departure of Luis Suarez and Liverpool have invested over £100 million in new players in an attempt to build on last season’s achievements. It has not succeeded and they returned to Selhurst Park on Sunday only to be soundly beaten by three goals to one. Rodgers is not one to shy away from criticism and he knows that their performances have not been good enough.

When Liverpool faced Ludogorets at home in their first group match, the fans were expected an emphatic victory. Only a Steven Gerrard penalty in injury-time spared their blushes that night and they can expect an equally tough battle on Wednesday.

The defeat at Palace was their fourth in a row including a controversial 1-0 defeat at Real Madrid when Rodgers fielded an under-strength side. He was spared further criticism by his players who fought bravely in a 1-0 defeat but there will be no hiding place if they cannot win against Ludogorets.

The home team may be bottom of Group B but is only goal difference which separates them from Liverpool. They held the Reds for 82 minutes at Anfield and go into this game in confident mood. Their domestic form is excellent with Real Madrid the only team to win at their ground in thirteen matches. They were far from embarrassed in that game either, taking the lead before losing 2-1.

They claimed all three points against Basel in October with an injury-time winner and are good enough to exploit any weaknesses in the Liverpool set-up. Qualification is still possible for both sides so there should be no half-measures in this one. Ludogorets would be delighted with a draw which would edge them closer to a Europa League spot. Liverpool desperately need to end their woeful run of form. This could be another long night for Liverpool fans and the draw may be the best value at around 5-2.

Ludogorets v Liverpool DRAW @45-17 888Sport, Unibet