Tag: Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham Day Two Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Day One of the Cheltenham festival did not exactly go to plan! Irving carried our hopes in the first but never looked like getting involved at any stage. It looked as though Glens Melody was going to save the day for us when striking for home in the Mares’ Hurdle but Quevega would not be denied a sixth consecutive victory in the race.

The low point of the was the tragic death of Our Conor following a heavy fall in the Champion Hurdle. I hope there is no repetition of this during the week as the ground dries out. For ground officially given as good to soft, it seems odd that a new course record was set by Vautour in the first. There was always a risk that the form book would be turned upside down after the horses have been running on soft ground for months.

We are already heavily involved in day two and Sire De Grugy’s performance in the Champion Chase could determine whether we are in profit this week. We snapped up 25-1 months ago about him and he is likely to off at around 5-2. I really don’t fancy anything else in the race so let’s hope he can keep his form.

We are also on at big odds in the opener with Faugheen at 10’s and Red Sherlock at 20’s. Either would give us a tidy profit. Space Ship didn’t get into the Fred Winter but we have our stake returned on the NR – no bet terms. That race looks impossible but we’ll re-invest in the Coral Cup.

Calculated Risk gives us a long shot at 40-1. The going has gone against Kaylif Aramis but I’m optimistic for the chances of Whisper. Nicky Henderson had three runners-up on the opening day and a third so his horses are obviously in flying form. A bit of each-way on Whisper with Nico de Boinville taking off 5lbs seems a wise move.

Modus takes on team Mullins in the Champion Bumper at 5.15. He should improve for the better ground and should also give us a good run.

Wednesday

Coral Cup – Whisper at 18-1 Bet365

Ante-post

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy 16-1

Coral Cup – Calculated Risk 40-1

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Fred Winter – Space Ship 16-1

Champion Bumper – Modus 10-1

Cheltenham Ante-Post Roundup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s time for a final run-down of our ante-post portfolio for next week’s Cheltenham festival. We will be previewing each day in our regular blog with the best bets of the day but here is the state of play.

The tone of the meeting could be set by Irving in the opener. I’ve been an enthusiastic follower since he won at Ascot earlier in the season and he’s now as short as 5-2 in places.

Day two is probably the most important day of the week for our portfolio with 25-1 Sire De Grugy carrying our hopes. If he runs as he did at Ascot he will win but he has not shown his best form at the track in the past and we won’t be able to breathe easily until he’s battled up the famous hill! He is the highlight of a busy day’s betting with three in the Neptune (possibly down to two if Pipe opts for a handicap for Un Temps Pour Tout).

Thursday is the weakest day of the week although it has received a boost with the news that Annie Power is set to clash with Big Buck’s. Friday’s Gold Cup has plenty of interest for us with three likely starters (Rocky Creek and Dynaste may be taken out). King’s Palace is one of our banker bets in the Albert Bartlett and Le Rocher should give us a bold run in the Triumph. Activial is still not a certain starter but we are on NR – No bet.

Good luck with all your Cheltenham bets and join us on Monday for our preview of Tuesday’s card!

Tuesday

Supreme – Irving 16-1

Arkle Chase – Dodging Bullets 6-1

National Hunt Chase – Foxrock 9-1

Wednesday

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy 16-1

Coral Cup – Calculated Risk 40-1

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Fred Winter – Space Ship 16-1

Champion Bumper – Modus 10-1

Thursday

Byrne Group Plate – Cause Of Causes 12-1

Friday

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1, Activial 10-1

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca 16-1, Cheltenian 14-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1, Triolo D’Alene 40-1, Rocky Creek 33-1

Cheltenham Ante-Post Update

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Virtually all bookmakers are now offering Non-Runner – No Bet terms on all Cheltenham races. I’ve had a few days to absorb the handicap ratings for the big handicaps. I can’t remember seeing so many horses entered for so many different races at the meeting so it is still like looking for a needle in a haystack!

One of the most baffling things about the betting markets is how the bookies trim horses just for being declared a runner! We had picked out Triolo D’Alene at 40-1 for the Gold Cup weeks ago on NR/no bet terms. As soon as Henderson declared him a runner his price was slashed to 20-1. You can’t tell me that punters that didn’t want to back the horse at 40-1 (NR-no bet) are suddenly tripping over themselves to back it at 20-1?

One of my favourite races of the meeting is the County Hurdle. Not that I can remember making any money out of it recently but there’s something about the two-mile handicap hurdlers. Although I am not convinced that Splash Of Ginge is anything out of the ordinary, I did think that the fact that Irish Saint, Dell’ Arca, Cheltenian and Swing Bowler chased him home made it a decent race. I’m happy to stick with Cheltenian (14-1) and Dell’ Arca (16-1) in the ante-post list here as they are lightly-raced and not particularly ground dependent.

Moving away from the handicapc, the Champion Bumper has turned into a Willie Mullins-benefit and probably will be again this year but I was impressed with Modus and he could give us a run at 10-1. He was bred for the flat and has the useful combination of class and speed.

I suppose it is wrong to be put off by a horse falling at home but RSA Chase Ballycasey hardly inspires confidence after his weekend tumble. I think the bookmakers may have underestimated O’Faolains Boy after his Ascot victory. 16-1 seems a big price for a Reynoldstown winner and Rebecca Curtis would not be sending him there unless she rates him.

The going is drying out slowly so it may go against the proven soft ground horses. That includes Kaylif Aramis in the Coral Cup so we may pass him over for the time being.

County Hurdle – Cheltenian at 14-1 Sportingbet

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca at 16-1 Totesport, Betfred

Champion Bumper – Modus at 10-1 Bet365, Coral

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy at 16-1 Ladbrokes

Cheltenham ante-post update

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With the weights now out for the eleven handicap races at the Cheltenham festival, it is time to seek out a bit of early value. That is easier said than done with over 1,000 entries to wade through and the situation is further complicated with so many fancied runners not certain to get a run.

One horse that I have been following from the flat is Space Ship, now trained in Ireland. He was a good handicapper for John Gosden and is slowly improving over hurdles after three races. His flat form suggests that he will improve for a faster surface after failing to pick up in the soft ground that he has recently encountered.

The race for him is the Fred Winter and he can be backed at 16-1 (non-runner/no bet) with Bet365. He looked set to win at Gowran Park last time but just got stuck in the ground between the last two.

Another horse that I have been hoping to catch right is Cause Of Causes. He was just short of Champion Hurdle class last season but won the Ladbroke Hurdle in great style and has been slow to learn his new career over fences. JP McManus bought him last year and he’s come close in his two starts.

Whilst he can hardly be said to have crept in under the radar, his chase rating is still 7lbs less than his official figure over hurdles. The big problem is that he has no less than seven festival entries! My own preference (and that’s all it is) is for the Byrne Group Plate in which he has a featherweight 10st 4lb to carry. 12-1 (NR-No bet) seems worth a bet although the odds aren’t that great that I’ve even picked the right race!

I’m also going to take the 10-1 about Activial for the Triumph Hurdle. The offer of NR/No bet takes out the risk factor while Harry Fry debates whether to keep him for Aintree. I was impressed with his Kempton victory in a race that regularly throws up genuine Triumph contenders and I would estimate his chances at around 6 or 7-1 if he gets the go-ahead. He’ll give us a strong team with our ante-post wager on Le Rocher (14-1).

Space Ship at 16-1 (Fred Winter) Bet365*

Cause Of Causes at 12-1 (Byrne Group Plate) Bet365*

Activial at 10-1 (Triumph Hurdle) Bet365*

*All non-runner – no bet

JLT Novices Chase Preview

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It’s been a tough week for Nicky Henderson with having to finally call time on attempts to get Sprinter Sacre to Cheltenham to defend his Champion Chase crown. He was always fighting a losing battle and there is no doubt that there is a sense of relief at having made the decision.

He has been outlining plans for the rest of his festival team and it is interesting to read his comments. Obviously the big two are Bobs Worth (Gold Cup) and My Tent Or Yours (Champion Hurdle) but the two that he appears most hopeful about are Oscar Whisky and Dawalan.

Oscar Whisky is a regular visitor to Cheltenham but he has disappointed in the past two World Hurdles. The general consensus is that he did not stay the three miles and Henderson has finally accepted that he is a two and a half mile horse. He has switched to fences this season and has not impressed everyone despite winning three of his four starts.

He was narrowly defeated by Taquin De Seuil in a slowly run race in November but gained revenge on that horse on New Year’s Day. On both occasions he was left to make most of the running, not necessarily ideal for a horse that usually delivered a late run over hurdles. In between those two races he beat Wonderful Charm by half a length in receipt of 8lbs.

His last race seems to have done him more harm than good as far as punters are concerned. The valuable Scilly Isles fell into his lap against just two rivals but it took place on heavy ground and he seemed to make heavy weather of it. My instinct is to ignore that run and base his chances on his previous outings over course and distance on decent ground. At 10-1 with Ladbrokes he looks cracking each-way value.

Dawalan has done enough to run in the Triumph Hurdle but Henderson has always felt that he was not good enough and is an ideal sort for the Fred Winter. He has won his last two races and was also a fair fourth behind Calipto and Activial at Newbury. That form now looks exceptional but he will presumably be weighted accordingly.

The betting for the Fred Winter includes names like Ivan Grozny, Pearl Castle, Plinth and Tiger Roll. Some, if not all of those will be running in the Triumph. I’m happy to take the early 10-1 as he will be shorter when the declarations are made.

Oscar Whisky at 10-1 (JLT Novices Chase) Ladbrokes

Dawalan at 10-1 (Fred Winter) Paddy Power, William Hill

Get on Sky Bet Cheltenham Price Boost!

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The bookmakers are really pushing the boat out with their Cheltenham offers this season. Not only do we have ante-post prices on all 27 races, several leading firms are already offering non-runner/no bet on the four championship races.

Sky Bet have added a further incentive to get stuck in to those ante-post Cheltenham wagers by offering a price boost on three tips provided by Racing UK experts Lydia Hislop, Mark Howard and Steve Mellish.

I have the greatest respect for Lydia and she is probably the only woman on the planet who could talk for longer about racing than I could without getting bored! I usually find her articles to be right on the money but I have to take issue with one comment she made about Big Buck’s on Saturday. She described the criticism of Sam Twiston-Davies for hitting the front too soon as “pants”. This is based on the fact that Ruby Walsh won on the horse by leading from a similar juncture in a previous World Hurdle.

That overlooks the 420 day lay-off, the heavy going and the fact that it was Twiston-Davies’s first ride on the horse. To my mind, all three contributed to the horse’s defeat but I’m sure we could discuss it if she has a few hours to spare! Although the jockey’s union does not allow criticism of their fellow riders, I think Mick Fitzgerald’s assessment was probably an accurate one and we’ll see Big Buck’s a little further back in the field on March 13th.

Lydia has selected King Palace, previously highlighted in this column, as the winner of the Albert Bartlett. Sky Bet are holding his price at 9-2 until midnight tonight. Mark Howard picked out Ted Walsh’s Foxrock, the winner of a grade 2 event at Naas last week, as his best bet in the National Hunt Chase (offered at 9-1). He is as low as 7-1 elsewhere and market rival Shotgun Paddy is not yet a certain starter.

Finally Steve Mellish weighed in with Le Rocher (also featured in this column on Monday) as his best bet in the Triumph Hurdle. I did not expect 12-1 to last for long but he is on offer at 14-1 until midnight. I am sure that he would be half those odds if he were trained by Nicholls or Henderson. If you haven’t played yet, grab the 14-1 while you can!

Sky Bet price boost

Kings Palace 9-2 Albert Bartlett

Foxrock 9-1 National Hunt Chase

Le Rocher 14-1 Triumph Hurdle