Tag: Cheltenham Festival

Have William Hill gone mad or are they going to take the market on with a massive offer such as this one? Will Hill is going big on Long Run and offering a massive 10/1 on him winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Now being a betting man I am all over this like a tramp over a bag of chips. I would put my money on him to win max stake £20 then a cheeky £20 each way bet at quarter the odds.

Get on this on tomorrow 6th March 2013 at 9am GMT

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¼ odd each way first 3 places

There are few more tricky races to unravel during the Cheltenham festival than the Champion Bumper. Very few of the runners will have clashed and no fewer than 21 of the 51 original entries are unbeaten after just one or two starts. Very few lines of form exist and the betting market often proves as good a guide as any.

One thing we do know is that Trainer Willie Mullins has farmed this race, winning it seven times in the twenty years since it was introduced. Union Dues appears to be his leading hope this season having won impressively at Killarney and Navan. He may also saddle Moyle Park, a four-length winner at Leopardstown in December, and Sizing Tennessee who landed the odds at Punchestown and Gowran Park.

Liz Doyle’s Le Vent D’Antan has been the subject of significant market support in recent weeks and is now challenging for favouritism with Golantilla. The French-bred gelding cruised to a six-length win on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown and comes from a stable with plenty of experience in this type of event. Doyle trained both Al Ferof and Cheltenian who went on to finish second and first in this race for their new connections. She has made no secret of the fact that believes Le Vent D’Antan to be in the same class. Golantilla romped to a 13-length success in heavy ground at Cork in January and has been put away for this race ever since.

The home defence is led by Jeremy Scott’s Huntingdon winner Empiracle. The son of Kris Kin bolted up under Nick Scholfield and has been the subject of encouraging reports in the build up to this race. Harry Fry is enjoying his debut season as a trainer with notable successes for Rock On Ruby and Opening Batsman. He looks to have another potential star performer in Oscar Rock, winner of a hotly contested bumper race at Newbury. He galloped on strongly to beat the Paul Nicholls-trained Vago Collonges. Caledonia was an eye-catching third for Jim Goldie with the highly regarded Pure Science back in fourth.

Another horse that has been clipped in the betting market is Anthony Honeyball’s Regal Encore, unbeaten in two starts and owned by Irish multi-millionaire JP McManus. He was purchased for an undisclosed fee after cruising to victory at Southwell in February and followed up at Chepstow in October. Although he has not raced since, latest reports suggest that he is on course for the festival and carries plenty of stable confidence.

The race is given an extra dimension by the participation of the Aidan O’Brien-trained Shield. A winner on his second start, the trainer is hoping to get special permission granted for his son Joseph to ride in the festival bumper. If he does make the line up it will be O’Brien’s first festival runner since Istabraq was pulled up when seeking a fourth Champion Hurdle victory in 2002.

Summary

This looks an incredibly difficult puzzle to solve and it may pay to follow the market closely on race day. Confidence is certainly high behind Le Vent D’Antan and he could prove the best of the Irish. Oscar Rock boasts the best form of the home contingent but Empiracle and Regal Encore both arrive with big home reputations.

The Ryanair Chase is the championship event for two and a half-mile chasers. Although this is a specialist distance, many of the entries this year have options in either the Champion Chase (2 miles) or the Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f).

Cue Card has been favourite since he ran out an impressive winner over Captain Chris at Ascot. That race was over 2m 5½f on soft ground and he made most of the running. The fact that he stayed on so well suggests that this is certainly the right race for him but connections have been tempted to take on Sprinter Sacre in the shorter Champion Chase. He was beaten seven lengths by Henderson’s superstar in the Arkle Trophy last season and, whilst he would undoubtedly have place prospects, it is hard to see him reversing the form. In all probability he will take his place in the Ryanair.

Second favourite is First Lieutenant, trained by Mouse Morris in Ireland. His trainer has expressed the desire to run him in the Cheltenham Gold Cup after solid efforts in the top three-mile chases. He is in the same ownership as Sir Des Champs and some doubt his ability to stay the full three and a quarter miles of the Gold Cup. Morris is not one of them and it remains to be seen whether he gets his wish.

Sizing Europe is yet another with multiple entries and his most obvious target is the Champion Chase, a race he won in 2011 before being beaten by Finian’s Rainbow in 2012. He has proved that he stays this distance but, with opposition drying up to Sprinter Sacre, he is thought likely to go for the shorter race.

Nicky Henderson won this race last year with Riverside Theatre at a time when his stable was firing on all cylinders. The nine-year-old has disappointed in two races since but recent homework has been encouraging and his price has shortened in recent days. He could be joined by the reigning two-mile champion Finian’s Rainbow who has been similarly disappointing, although Henderson has blamed the ground for his lack lustre efforts.

Champion Court ran a brave race in the King George but clearly failed to stay the three miles. He ran disappointingly when only second to Alasi recently and Menorah also needs to improve markedly to figure here. Albertas Run won this race in 2010 and 2011 and finished second to Riverside Theatre last season. He has not raced for a year but went into last year’s contest without a recent run and performed magnificently. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill’s last bulletin about him was not that encouraging and he is in the autumn of a great career at the age of twelve.

Roi Du Mee could come into the equation if he is allowed to take his chance. He beat off Grand National hopefuls Prince De Beauchene and Seabass in a slowly run Bobbyjo Chase and has done nothing but improve all season.

Summary

This race looks wide open and may not become clearer until the final declarations are announced. Cue Card is a worthy favourite on his Ascot form but his free-running style is not best suited to Cheltenham and he could be left vulnerable to a late challenge. Riverside Theatre would have to be a threat if Henderson can get him back to his best in time whilst Sizing Europe would also come into consideration if running here. Roi Du Mee is not yet a certain runner but looks over-priced at 25-1 with the non-runner/no bet now offered by most bookmakers.

Last season David Pipe kept punters waiting until the last moment before running Grands Crus in the RSA Chase having contemplated an ambitious tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He has not left himself in quite the same quandary this season but is still considering the Jewson Novices’ Chase as an alternative for RSA Chase favourite Dynaste.

The RSA Chase is the three-mile championship race for the season’s leading novices but it has a reputation of being a gruelling test for a young horse. It is no longer the automatic choice for future Gold Cup contenders as trainers seek to protect them from a potentially damaging experience. Denman (2007) is the only horse to have gone on to win a Gold Cup following victory in the RSA Chase since Looks Like Trouble in 1999. However, Nicky Henderson’s Bobs Worth is favourite to end that sequence this year and the race remains a significant trial for young chasers.

Dynaste is fully justified to go off favourite after three impressive victories at Cheltenham, Newbury and Kempton. He has jumped like a seasoned handicapper and coasted home unchallenged under Tom Scudamore in all three races. His most recent victory in the Feltham Novices’ Chase was the outstanding performance by a three-mile novice this season. If Pipe decides to take his chance in this race, 9-4 may look a very tempting price.

Second favourite is the Willie Mullins-trained Boston Bob who needed every yard of Leopardstown’s three-miles to defeat Texas Jack in the Moriarty Novices’ Chase in February. Four horses were covered by barely a length at the line and that usually suggests the form is suspect. Lord Windermere (third) and Lyreen Legend (4th) are fully entitled to renew rivalry but improvement is expected from Boston Bob. He was a heavily backed favourite last year when beaten by the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and the good ground may have counted against him that day. He doesn’t seem to do anything very quickly but seems likely to get preference over his stable companion Back In Focus for this event. You would have to worry about his chances if the recent dry spell continues.

Paul Nicholls is another trainer keeping his cards close to his chest for this race. He has repeatedly warned that his recent Ascot winner Rocky Creek is not a certain starter for this race but he is leaning towards running the grey Unioniste. The French-bred gelding was all out to hold off Hadrian’s Approach at Newbury last time but Nicholls blamed the slow pace and feels that two and a half miles would prove too sharp on anything other than heavy ground. Unioniste had been a well-backed winner of a big handicap at Cheltenham earlier in the season and could have further improvement in him.

Nicky Henderson’s Hadrian’s Approach comes into the reckoning on that Newbury run but was previously beaten nine lengths by Dynaste. David Pipe’s other entry, Goulanes, just got the better of Super Duty at Wetherby on his debut over fences. He also holds an entry in the four-mile National Hunt Chase and is very much an unknown quantity.

Summary

Delays over running plans have left the market a bit confused but Dynaste stands head and shoulders about his rivals in terms of form. Unless the going turns soft, he looks to have too much pace for Boston Bob whilst Unioniste has been consistent all season and should make his presence felt.

Pont Alexandre has been favourite for this race since running away with a Grade 2 event at Leopardstown in January. As impressive as he was that day, his hurdling was far from foot-perfect and both of his victories this season have been achieved in heavy ground. Trainer Willie Mullins believes that better ground won’t present a problem for the five-year-old but there must be a slight concern that his hurdling will be put under pressure in a large field. Mullins added that he feels that he is one of the best novice hurdlers that he has trained.

His chief market rival is The New One, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. The son of King’s Theatre beat My Tent Or Yours in the bumper race at Aintree last season and won his first three hurdle races in good style. He suffered a reverse at Cheltenham in January when collared on the run-in by At Fishers Cross but jockey Sam Twiston-Davies is convinced that he went too soon. The winner is reportedly more likely to go for the Albert Bartlett over three miles. The New One is certain to be ridden with more restraint at the festival and better ground holds no fears for him. He had previously looked a class act when bolting up at Warwick and his trainer considered running him in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle before settling on the longer distance.

Jonjo O’Neill has stated that Taquin Du Seuil represents his best chance of a winner at the festival this year. The six-year-old suffered his only defeat of the season against My Tent Or Yours at Ascot in November, form which now looks particularly sound following that horse’s brilliant victory in the Betfair Hurdle. Taquin Du Seuil got within a length and three-quarters of the favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and has since won comfortably at Sandown and Newbury.

Rule The World is an intriguing entry after a sensational victory at Naas in January. The six-year-old by Sulamani looks to have bags of potential and seemed to surprise trainer Mouse Morris with the ease of his victory that day. The form is a little difficult to interpret because third-placed Champagne Fever was well below his best that day and bounced back to form at Leopardstown in February, conclusively reversing the placings with Naas runner-up Minsk. If you had to pick one horse from this race for the future it would probably be Rule The World but it is just a question whether he can handle the hustle and bustle if the going is on the quick side.

Many of the leading contenders are entered in either the Supreme or the Albert Bartlett and the state of the ground is going to determine the destination of several of them. Among them is Nicky Henderson’s Chatterbox, a stylish winner at Newbury in February. The Lambourn Trainer is already strongly represented in the two-mile championship so may be tempted to take a chance that Chatterbox proves as effective over two and a half miles.

Summary

The going could have a big say in the outcome of this event, the softer the better for the likes of Pont Alexandre and Rule The World. Both horses have been very impressive in heavy ground and their ability to reproduce that form on a better surface has to be taken on trust. The New One and Taquin Du Seuil look likely alternatives and Chatterbox could prove a lively each-way bet if allowed to take his chance.