Tag: Cheltenham Festival

Sprinter Sacre is certain to go off the shortest price horse of the Cheltenham Festival this season. He has been so impressive in winning the valuable Tingle Creek at Sandown and the Victor Chandler over course and distance that the opposition has virtually dried up. He may even go off at shorter odds than Flying Bolt who won the Champion Chase at odds of 1-5 in 1966.

Nicky Henderson’s rising star won the Arkle Trophy last season by an easy seven lengths from Cue Card. His task was made easier by an early blunder from main market rival Al Ferof but he could hardly have been more impressive, cruising on the bridle two out before pulling clear of his toiling rivals. He turned out again at Aintree where he had around two stone in hand of his rivals on official ratings and duly landed odds of 1-7.

Although much had been made of the chances of the Paul Nicholls-trained Sanctuaire ahead of the Tingle Creek in December, Sprinter Sacre was sent off 4-11 favourite and was not extended to overhaul that pace-setting rival before 3 out. Sanctuaire had probably run too freely on very soft ground and was eventually passed by Kumbeshwar for second place. Although Sanctuaire bounced back with a victory at Kempton he again proved no match for Sprinter Sacre at Cheltenham under more restraint.

The only rival that cannot be backed at a double figure price is former two-mile champion Sizing Europe. Henry De Bromhead’s 11-year-old is unbeaten in five starts since arguably being unlucky to lose his two-mile crown to Finian’s Rainbow at least year’s festival meeting. The runners had to be steered around a fence in the home straight and that certainly did Sizing Europe no favours, eventually losing by a length and a quarter. His trainer has thought long and hard about the right distance for his stable star this season and even had a Gold Cup entry until recently. He has certainly shown that he can stay two and a half miles and he looks the one to give the favourite a race.

Reigning champion Finian’s Rainbow goes into this race under something of a cloud having finished last in both starts this season. In his defence, he is known not to like soft ground and trainer Nicky Henderson was reluctant to run him on both occasions. He felt that he simply had to get some racing into him before the festival. He was never happy in the Ascot Chase won by Cue Card and his price has drifted out accordingly.

Cue Card’s Cheltenham festival target is yet to be decided with the Ryanair Chase still very much an option. Trainer Colin Tizzard freely admits that the Ryanair looks the most logical option and he may have left him in the Champion just in case something happens to the favourite. There was plenty to like about his six lengths victory over Captain Chris and he is currently as short as 3-1 favourite for the Ryanair. Philip Hobbs, trainer of Captain Chris, could be represented by recent Newbury winner Wishfull Thinking after a game win over French Opera at Newbury. However, he looks well held by the principals on all known form.

The dark horse of the race is Tom George’s Mail De Bievre after his display of bold jumping at Newbury behind Silviniaco Conti. That race was over three miles on soft ground and he weakened in the closing stages to finish fifth. He also holds a Ryanair entry but George is considering supplementing him for the two mile event to see what he can do. The eight-year-old had raced exclusively in France prior to the Newbury race so he would certainly make it interesting if he has the speed to make the running.

Summary

Sprinter Sacre is being heralded as the new jumping sensation and it will take a brave man to bet against him after the way he has demolished the opposition in his previous races. If he were to get beaten it would be the shock of the meeting. The only horse that looks capable of doing so is Sizing Europe so he could be something to bet on if “betting without the favourite”.

The Cheltenham Festival is set to kick off in some style as The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle looks like providing a top quality field. The bookmakers will be bracing themselves for some big bets on Nicky Henderson’s star novice My Tent Or Yours who shot to favouritism with a breathtaking win in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Many thought that he had plenty to do under 11st 2lb against seasoned handicappers but Tony McCoy could be picked out sitting motionless on the home turn and it was just a matter of when he decided to press the button. He took up the running 2 out and powered clear to win by five lengths.

Such was the authority with which he dismissed his rivals that there was speculation that Henderson may even run him in the Champion Hurdle. The Lambourn trainer has decided to stick to the more orthodox route and it is no wonder that he is quoted as short as 7-4 favourite in the Cheltenham ante-post betting. Dark Lover, fourth in the Betfair, may not have boosted the form by finishing only third at Fontwell recently but the longer trip may have been his undoing. Nonetheless, it does serve to remind us that the form of handicaps can sometimes be deceptive. It is also worth remembering that even the brilliant but ill-fated Darlan was beaten in the Supreme and there are several other talented rivals to consider.

Leading owner JP McManus had his cheque book out earlier in the season to secure the top Irish novice Jezki and it is ironic that he has now been usurped in the betting market by a horse that he already owns. Jezki is trained by Jessica Harrington and has won all four starts this season. He was particularly impressive when disposing of Waaheb by six lengths at Leopardstown in December and his trainer is convinced that he will improve again on better ground. He is rock solid at 4-1 in the betting and McManus will be expecting big runs from both of his horses.

Melodic Rendezvous is another strongly fancied contender and was most impressive when beating Puffin Billy at Exeter last time out. Connections of the runner-up blamed that defeat on an injury and are still hoping to make the festival line up but Melodic Rendezvous carries maximum stable confidence. Trainer Jeremy Scott has a choice of engagements for the seven-year-old and will leave a decision until as late as possible to take the going into account. The son of Where Or When shapes as though two and a half miles would be well within his compass and he could yet be switched to the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle.

Nicky Henderson may also be represented by the useful River Mague, second to Triumph Hurdle hope Far West at Ascot recently. That was an extremely tactical affair and time may show that he was up against a very useful performer. He is probably better judged on his second to Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham in November, losing out to the Paul Nicholls-trained gelding by a length and a half. Dodging Bullets was pitched against the best of his age group last season and his third to Darlan in the Christmas Hurdle is arguably the best on show in this race.

Summary

This looks like being one of the hottest races of the Cheltenham Festival with My Tent Or Yours likely to be sent off a strong favourite. Although Jezki and Melodic Rendezvous have plenty of potential, it is impossible to ignore the ease with which Henderson’s novice won the competitive Betfair Handicap and he looks likely to get favourite-backers off to a good start. Dodging Bullets has done nothing wrong this season and he could still represent each-way value.

The absence of Big Buck’s has left the World Hurdle wide open this year. Paul Nicholls was forced to abandon hopes of an astonishing fifth successive victory for his stable star due to injury and nothing has stood out as his natural successor.

The horse to have shown the best form in staying hurdles this season is Reve De Sivola who ran away with Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle by fourteen lengths. He then followed up by drawing the sting out of suspect stayer Oscar Whisky in a hard-fought battle up the Cheltenham hill in the Cleeve Hurdle. Both of those victories came on heavy ground, a surface that trainer Nick Williams maintains to be unsuitable for Reve De Sivola. It is unlikely to be as testing at the festival and it remains to be seen whether the eight-year-old will be able to repel his challengers on a faster surface.

Oscar Whisky is currently joint-favourite although connections have deliberated long and hard about his Cheltenham target. He went for the World Hurdle last season and first impressions were that his stamina had simply run out as he weakened back into fifth. However, trainer Nicky Henderson insists that he was not at his best that day and it is hard to blame lack of stamina for his neck defeat in heavy ground against Reve De Sivola. If the going is soft, Henderson could still switch him to the Champion Hurdle but it seems more likely that this race will be his destination. Assuming he does take part, he will probably be going best of all to two out but there still remains a nagging doubt about that Cheltenham hill.

Quevega has been mooted as a possible contender here but Willie Mullins has stressed that the Mare’s race is her main objective and it would be asking a lot to turn out twice at the festival meeting. Noel Meade’s Monksland put up a solid stayer’s performance when winning the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle from Zaidpour and So Young. He was under pressure from a long way out that day but stayed on relentlessly to finish well on top. That sort of resolve will stand him in good stead in the World Hurdle although connections will certainly be hoping that the going is on the soft side to bring his stamina into play.

With so many doubts about the leading candidates, Donald McCain’s former Neptune Hurdle winner and Champion Hurdle runner-up Peddlers Cross must enter calculations. He was sent chasing after his fine second to Hurricane Fly in 2011 but a series of minor injuries and a loss of confidence in his fencing has resulted in him reverting to the smaller obstacles. A pipe-opener in a national hunt flat race at Kempton was followed by a less than impressive win at Musselburgh but opinions have been divided on the merit of that performance. McCain admitted that his first reaction was one of disappointment but jockey Jason Maguire was brimming with optimism after the race. The bare form reads as a relatively narrow win over rivals rated 30lbs inferior but his hurdling was quick and accurate and he may have simply been idling in front.

Nicholls had intended running Tidal Bay in this race but he has also succumbed to an injury leaving Wonderful Charm, Prospect Wells and Celestial Halo representing the Champion trainer. Wonderful Charm is the least exposed but has already been described as a chaser in the making. Bog Warrior and Solwhit, first and second at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve, could also come into the reckoning in what is a wide open looking race.

Summary

This race could be one of the trickiest of the festival for punters to solve. Reve De Sivola and Oscar Whisky could well be major players and preference would be for the latter unless the going became really testing. Monksland would certainly have a leading chance if the ground came up heavy but, in anticipation of better ground, it may be worth taking a chance on Peddlers Cross. His trainer is convinced that he is as good as ever and he had enough stamina to win the 2m 5f novice hurdle here in 2010.

The Triumph Hurdle is the ultimate test for four-year-old novices at the Cheltenham Festival and this year’s field looks potentially one of the best assembled in recent years. The bookmakers are finding it difficult to split three unbeaten horses at the head of the market, all of which are unbeaten over hurdles.

Our Conor was hugely impressive when easily seeing off the well regarded Diakali by five lengths at Leopardstown. The winning margin could have been extended and trainer Dessie Hughes is confident that the son of Jeremy can cope with the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham. The runner-up had previously been touted as the best of the Willie Mullins-trained juveniles having won by 28 lengths at Punchestown in January. He may still take his chance but it is difficult to see him reversing the places.

Far West is the leading hope of champion trainer Paul Nicholls and is unbeaten in four starts. He defeated Nicky Henderson’s consistent Vasco Du Ronceray in the Triumph Hurdle Trial over course and distance in November and was even more impressive in beating the six-year-old River Mague at Ascot last time. Nicholls is not normally one to overstate his chances but he has been unusually bullish about Far West and a big run is clearly anticipated.

Henderson runners may have seen the backside of Far West on two occasions but the Lambourn trainer’s leading hope is Rolling Star, a fluent winner over the Nicholls-trained Irish Saint at Cheltenham in January. As with several of his Cheltenham hopes this year, Henderson has not managed to get another run into Rolling Star so there is a danger that the huge field may put pressure on his jumping. Even so, he is another with plenty of potential from a yard that has a fine record in this race.

Nicholls has signalled his intention to bypass the festival with Irish Saint and save him for Aintree whilst most of the other runners look reasonably exposed. A possible exception is John Quinn’s Hidden Justice, a comfortable winner of both starts at minor meetings. His trainer knows what it takes to win this event having saddled Countrywide Flame to do so last year. He could also saddle Kashmir Peak, a winner over Sametegal at Doncaster in December before unseating his rider in a race won by that rival at Musselburgh. Vasco Du Ronceray was third in the race on Town Moor giving a line of form that suggests they are not too far behind Far West. Leading owner JP McManus is well represented throughout the meeting and Stocktons Wing, a game winner at Fairyhouse last time out, looks his best prospect in this. However, he has plenty to find if he is to reverse the placings with Our Conor from their meeting in December.

Summary

It will be a surprise if the winner is not one of the three favourites; Our Conor, Rolling Star and Far West. Preference is just for the latter because he has more experience and looks the sort to keep pulling it out in the closing stages.

Hurricane Fly is hot favourite to regain the Champion Hurdle crown after two hugely impressive victories at Leopardstown. He won the race in 2011 but was surprisingly only third behind Rock On Ruby last year when sent off the 4-6 favourite. That remains his only defeat in his last 12 races so it is no surprise to see him dominating the betting market. The form of his most recent victory was not exactly boosted when Thousand Stars flopped badly on his next start, a defeat attributed to the heavy ground.

Rock On Ruby did not really get the credit he deserved for last year’s victory. Enterprisingly ridden by Noel Fehily, he was given a beautiful lead by eventual runner-up Overturn and made his stamina tell up the Cheltenham hill. He has been campaigned with this race in mind again this season and saw off the useful Countrywide Flame at Doncaster last time out. That race was marred by the fatal injury to Darlan but both Rock On Ruby and Countrywide Flame look set to run big races in the Champion. The latter gave Cinders And Ashes a comprehensive beating at Newcastle and was not suited by Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle. Donald McCain is optimistic that better ground will see Cinders And Ashes return to the form that enabled him to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last year but it is difficult to see him reversing Newcastle form.

Zarkandar was fancied to run well last year but ran a strange race, losing his position before running on powerfully up the hill to finish fifth. Trainer Paul Nicholls maintains that he was never really happen with him last year and he cannot be faulted on three comfortable victories this season. The most significant of those may be the International Hurdle at Cheltenham where he defeated a ring-rusty Grandouet by two lengths. Zarkandar gives the impression that he will have to do it the hard way if he is to win the Champion and it will be a surprise if he isn’t ridden up with the pace this year. Nicky Henderson has not been able to get another race into Grandouet and some still question his resilience if it comes down to real battle. Henderson has been at pains to make sure that 2010 winner Binocular is not overlooked whilst he will only run Oscar Whisky if the going is soft.

Cotton Mill could do best of the rest if he is allowed to take his chance. There was a lot to like about his seasonal reappearance when he chased home the impressive My Tent Or Yours in the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle. Khyber Kim finished second to Binocular in 2010 and had his first race for almost two years when chasing home Zarkandar at Wincanton. That run was not at all bad, especially considering that he completely missed the last flight of hurdles.

Summary

Hurricane Fly is regarded by many as one of the banker bets of the meeting but 7-4 looks short for a horse beaten last year. Zarkandar and Rock On Ruby will be looking to run the finish out of the favourite and that could suit Countrywide Flame. As he showed when winning last year’s Triumph Hurdle, he is best suited by a fast run race and he could prove to be excellent each-way value.

Last year’s Arkle produced arguably the most impressive performance of the meeting when Nicky Henderson’s Sprinter Sacre cruised to an effortless win. However, not far behind that breathtaking victory was the performance of Henderson’s novice hurdler Simonsig in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle, eventually coming home seven lengths clear.

Simonsig followed up with an equally emphatic victory at Aintree and the Lambourn trainer wasted no time in switching him to fences. He has won his two outings at Ascot and Kempton by 49 lengths and 35 lengths respectively. Whilst it is true that the opposition did not amount to much, he could hardly have been more impressive and he is already odds-on favourite in the Arkle Trophy betting.

As much as punters like to see a great champion, they would rather have something to bet on and opposition to the favourite has arrived in the form of Donald McCain’s Overturn. The popular dual-purpose horse ran the race of his life at last year’s Cheltenham festival, repelling all challengers in the Champion Hurdle except the winner Rock On Ruby. He then reverted to the flat and ran another fantastic race in attempting to win his second Chester Cup under the welter burden of 9st 10lb. In the end he was just beaten by his stable companion Ile De Roi in receipt of almost a stone.

After finishing in midfield at Royal Ascot, McCain took the brave decision to try Overturn over fences. He admitted that he did so with some trepidation and only so long as the horse seemed to be enjoying it. The nine-year-old appears to have taken to fences like a duck to water, winning three from three by an accumulative distance of almost 70 lengths. His victories have come at Sandown, Doncaster and Musselburgh, making all and jumping boldly. He will almost certainly assume his customary front-running role at Cheltenham and represents a real threat to the favourite.

The main Irish challenge comes from Arvika Ligeonniere who blotted his copybook when falling four out at Leopardstown in January. He had previously won two Grade 1 events without his rider having to get too serious. He beat Oscars Well in December with Benefficient back in fourth place but that form was turned on its head last time. Benefficient ran out a 20 length winner from Oscars Well after Arvika Ligeonniere had departed.

Nicky Henderson has a possible second string in Captain Conan, a winner at Cheltenham in November and twice since at Sandown. The six-year-old was all out to prevail by a neck last time and the trainer expressed the view that he is likely to miss the Arkle in favour of a longer race.

Summary

This race has all of the hallmarks of a classic racing duel. The front-running Overturn and the classy grey Simonsig stalking him. Overturn’s best chance of success would be on good ground with some quick accurate fencing to put Simonsig under pressure but he will have to meet every fence spot on. Nicky Henderson’s exciting novice was not extended to win hurdles events at Cheltenham and Aintree last season and looks poised to follow in the footsteps of stable companion Sprinter Sacre.