Tag: cheltenham odds

Cheltenham blog – Dodging Bullets wins Champion Chase

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After the excitement of the Willie Mullins big four on Tuesday, there was a more relaxed mood at Cheltenham on Wednesday. The highlight of the day was the Queen Mother Champion Chase with three former winners up against the promising Dodging Bullets.

The race was robbed of one key ingredient when Champagne Fever was withdrawn and, with all due to respect to Dodging Bullets, it turned into a bit of an anti-climax. There had always been a big question mark as to whether or not Sprinter Sacre could recapture his best form and he was never travelling with his usual zest.

He was eventually pulled up by Barry Geraghty while Sire de Grugy also ran very flat, running on at one pace into fourth. All credit to Dodging Bullets who has done exactly what Sire de Grugy did a year before, winning the key trials and confirming his status as the best two-miler of the season.

Nicholls had earlier won the Coral Cup when the French import Aux Ptits Soins held off Zabana, Activial and Taglietelle in a driving finish. Don Poli ran out a comfortable winner of the RSA Chase but I don’t imagine that there will be a stampede to take the miserly 6-1 offered about him for next year’s Gold Cup. He looks a bit of a character and was continuously pricking his ears up the home straight. Kings Palace once again failed to fire on the big day and finished a remote sixth for David Pipe.

Nicholls went on to complete a 1430-1 treble when Qualando won the Fred Winter Hurdle from stable companion Bouvreuil. Bookmakers will probably deny it but they ought to be well ahead on the second day with only two successful favourites. Many of their big race offers were on Sire de Grugy and Sprinter Sacre and they will all stay firmly in their satchels.

Coral New Customer Offer

Coral are offering new customers 5-1 about Vautour finishing in the first three in Thursday’s opening race. This is limited to a maximum stake of £10. He looks likely to start at around the 9-4 mark as he bids to add to the Mullins winning tally.

Market Movers

Thursday – Edeymi (Pertemps Final) 8-1 Bet365

Thursday – Un Ace (Festival Plate) 10-1 William Hill

Friday – Quick Jack (County Hurdle) 10-1 Sportingbet

Cheltenham Champion Hurdle Preview

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The highlight of the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival is the Champion Hurdle at 3.20 with just eight runners set to go to post. Here is our runner-by-runner guide.

Faugheen (5-4 Betfair)

Unbeaten winner of last year’s two and a half mile novices’ hurdle and an impressive winner at Ascot and Kempton this season. His jumping has not always been fluent and there is a concern that Ruby Walsh may have to make his own running in this small field.

Bertimont (200-1 Racebets)

On the face of it, the grey is outclassed but he was only beaten two and a half lengths by The New One in heavy ground at Haydock. Dan Skelton has ruled out the prospect of the son of Slickly making the running and there will be a few each-way optimists tempted by odds of 200-1.

Arctic Fire (20-1 Stan James)

The third string for Willie Mullins but a decent each-way chance on his recent runs behind Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown. He never really threatened to challenge in the Irish Champion Hurdle but may be ridden slightly closer to the pace on Tuesday.

Hurricane Fly (9-1 Totesport)

The winner here in 2011 and 2013, he is bidding to join Hatton’s Grace and Sea Pigeon as the oldest winners in the race’s history. He has beaten Jezki three times in a row this season and is difficult to beat in these tactical races.

Jezki (9-2 Coral)

Although seemingly held by Hurricane Fly on recent form, he had a very similar build-up last year only to come out on top when it mattered most. Tony McCoy’s last ride in the race but needs everything to fall into place.

Kitten Rock (33-1 Bet365)

Has not beaten anything of this class but deserves to take his chance after four consecutive victories. He was impressive in a Grade 2 at Gowran Park last month but it would be a major surprise if he proves good enough to win.

The New One (7-2 Coral)

The apple of Nigel Twiston-Davies’s eye and bidding to make up for an unlucky run when third last year. He was stopped in his tracks by the fall of Our Conor but there is still a suspicion that he  is better over further. Has one short burst of acceleration and his jockey will be playing the waiting game.

Vaniteux (33-1 Bet365)

No match for The New One here in December and beaten by Rock On Ruby on New Year’s Day. A good third in the Supreme last year but does not look good enough.

Verdict

Tactics are going to be crucial here and Faugheen is likely to there to be shot at from some way out. That could play into the hands of The New One while Hurricane Fly and Arctic Fire both have solid place claims.

  1. The New One 2. Faugheen 3. Arctic Fire 4. Hurricane Fly

Paddy Power Cheltenham money-back offer

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Paddy Power have come unstuck in previous years with their generous money-back offers at Cheltenham and they are at it again this year!

In 2012 they offered refunds on all losing bets in the Arkle Chase if odds-on favourite Sprinter Sacre won. Nicky Henderson’s star chaser made short work of his rivals and the following year is was Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle. Last season Vautour romped to victory in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with Paddy Power refunding bets on the placed horses.

The firm are to refund all losing bets as a free bet on two races at this year’s festival. Willie Mullins is responsible for the favourite in each with Douvan in the Supreme and Un De Sceaux in the Arkle. With the former currently 7-4 favourite and Un De Sceaux the shortest priced favourite of the meeting at 4-7, it is probably a way of generating some interest in the other runners. The offer applies to all bets up to £50/€50 per customer per race.

The offer will be of particular interest to punters who fancy those closest to the favourites in each race. There is a lot of confidence behind Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge in the Supreme and he is currently trading at 9-2 with the Irish firm. The French import remains unbeaten and was particularly impressive when winning the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last time out.

The market is similarly lopsided in the Arkle Chase with Vibrato Valtat offered at 5-1 with 10-1 bar. Paul Nicholls trains the grey who has won his last three races over fences culminating in the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick earlier this month. He cruised clear to beat Top Gamble by four and a half lengths to follow up his win at Kempton in December.

He is available at 11-2 elsewhere but the 5-1 with the refund offer should Un De Sceaux fluff his lines is well worth considering. L’Ami Serge is generally 4-1 with other firms so the 9-2 will make plenty of appeal to supporters of Nicky Henderson’s star novice. There does not appear to be much depth to the field for the Supreme and the market currently revolves around the two horses. With non-runner – no bet also applying, it could be a good time to get on the second favourites.

L’Ami Serge @9-2 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Vibrato Valtat @5-1 Arkle Chase

*Paddy Power special terms apply

JLT Novices Chase Preview

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It’s been a tough week for Nicky Henderson with having to finally call time on attempts to get Sprinter Sacre to Cheltenham to defend his Champion Chase crown. He was always fighting a losing battle and there is no doubt that there is a sense of relief at having made the decision.

He has been outlining plans for the rest of his festival team and it is interesting to read his comments. Obviously the big two are Bobs Worth (Gold Cup) and My Tent Or Yours (Champion Hurdle) but the two that he appears most hopeful about are Oscar Whisky and Dawalan.

Oscar Whisky is a regular visitor to Cheltenham but he has disappointed in the past two World Hurdles. The general consensus is that he did not stay the three miles and Henderson has finally accepted that he is a two and a half mile horse. He has switched to fences this season and has not impressed everyone despite winning three of his four starts.

He was narrowly defeated by Taquin De Seuil in a slowly run race in November but gained revenge on that horse on New Year’s Day. On both occasions he was left to make most of the running, not necessarily ideal for a horse that usually delivered a late run over hurdles. In between those two races he beat Wonderful Charm by half a length in receipt of 8lbs.

His last race seems to have done him more harm than good as far as punters are concerned. The valuable Scilly Isles fell into his lap against just two rivals but it took place on heavy ground and he seemed to make heavy weather of it. My instinct is to ignore that run and base his chances on his previous outings over course and distance on decent ground. At 10-1 with Ladbrokes he looks cracking each-way value.

Dawalan has done enough to run in the Triumph Hurdle but Henderson has always felt that he was not good enough and is an ideal sort for the Fred Winter. He has won his last two races and was also a fair fourth behind Calipto and Activial at Newbury. That form now looks exceptional but he will presumably be weighted accordingly.

The betting for the Fred Winter includes names like Ivan Grozny, Pearl Castle, Plinth and Tiger Roll. Some, if not all of those will be running in the Triumph. I’m happy to take the early 10-1 as he will be shorter when the declarations are made.

Oscar Whisky at 10-1 (JLT Novices Chase) Ladbrokes

Dawalan at 10-1 (Fred Winter) Paddy Power, William Hill

Cheltenham Saturday Preview

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Balthazar King (2-1) kept our noses in front on Friday with a game display in the cross country race at Cheltenham. I was a bit concerned after an early mistake but he’s as tough as old boots and just refused to be beaten.

Our ambitious ante-post wagers on the Paddy Power Gold Cup still stand with Kumbeshwar (40-1) and Astracad (33-1) hoping to sneak some place money in a wide open race. The more I look at this race, the more confused I become! Confidence seems to have evaporated in Johns Spirit who is back out to 8-1 and I’m just wondering if he’s up to this class.

With so many good horses available at big odds, I’m going to add Battle Group to my team of long shots at a very generous 25-1 with Stan James. He has a reputation as a bit of a rogue but you cannot argue with back-to-back wins at Aintree and a win in a valuable race at Haydock. He was heavily backed in all three races and I can see him running a lot better than his odds suggest tomorrow.

Scottish National winner Godsmejudge makes his return to action on the same card and looks fair value at 15-2. Wayne Hutchinson rides him superbly and trainer Alan King reports the horse to be in fine form at home.

African Gold did well to win over hurdles, let alone chase home At Fishers Cross at the festival meeting. He’s a big strapping sort with a future over fences and he makes his chasing bow tomorrow in the 1.15. He has a certain AP McCoy to beat on Shutthefrontdoor but I can see African Gold making up into an RSA Chase candidate this season.

Timesremembered looked an above average hurdler when winning at Chepstow last time out and he can extend his winning sequence to three in the 3.35 race. This is a much tougher race but I think that he will start shorter than 11-4.

African Gold 2-1 BetVictor, Sportingbet

Godsmejudge 15-2 Stan James

Battle Group (each-way) 25-1 Stan James

Timesremembered 11-4  Stan James

Cheltenham Friday Preview

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Friday is the first of three cracking days of national hunt racing at Cheltenham. All eyes will be on Oscar Whisky as he embarks on his new chasing career and he should not be too severely tested with just three rivals. If he can convert his hurdles form to the bigger obstacles he will be an exciting prospect this season.

Of course, he isn’t really a betting proposition on Friday but there are plenty of competitive races to look at. Standing Ovation is likely to be all the rage in the opener after running out a clear cut winner of the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton. That was achieved off a mark of 120 and he has been raised to 127 tomorrow. David Pipe is a chip off the old block when it comes to taking horses through the handicap and it would be no surprise to see this one make it five on the bounce.

Conor O’Farrell has ridden him to all of his recent victories but amateur Mr S Clements takes over on Friday. He runs in the colours of the late David Johnson and it would be a poignant winner on the day of the Memorial race named in his honour. David Pipe has a fancied runner in that event with Top Gamble who is on a hat-trick after wins at Ffos Las. He must have a good chance but there are several promising types in opposition including Upswing, Whisper and Atlantic Roller.

I’ve never really been a fan of the cross country races but Balthazar King doesn’t seem to mind them and he looks a good bet at around 2-1 in the 3.15. He was only second here last year behind Uncle Junior but that one is getting a bit long in the tooth whilst Balthazar King continues to progress. It was a decent handicap that he won here in October and this looks like a drop in class.

Standing Ovation 13-8 Stan James

Balthazar King 2-1 Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power