Tag: Cheltenham tips

Outlander Must End Cheltenham Troubles to Triumph at Gold Cup

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Outlander will have to overcome a lot of obstacles and not just those on the racecourse at Cheltenham to win the famous Gold Cup. The Bay Gelding is one of the outsiders for the crown, with Cue Card and Native River considered the top two favourites to triumph at the festival.

Image credit: “Cheltenham Racecourse” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Carine06

However, the nine-year-old put in an impressive performance in his last outing at the end of 2016, finishing ahead of Don Poli and Djakadam to claim victory at the Lexus Chase.

The race proved that Outlander has the quality to match the best in the field and the ability to rise to the occasion under trainer Gordon Elliott and with Jack Kennedy at the reins.

As a result of the Bay Gelding’s form, it is backed among the horse racing picks at around 10/1 among leading bookmakers, which is well worth a punt, especially for placing in the top three.

Outlander had an excellent start to his career, winning his opening three races, culminating in a signature win at the Christmas Party Day Race at Fairyhouse Maiden Hurdle. However, inconsistencies plagued the Irish horse in 2015, although he did end on a high note with back-to-back victories at Puncheston and Limerick.

Outlander began 2016 on the front foot with another stellar outing at the Flogas Novice Chase in Leopardstown, which would be his final win under trainer Willie Mullins. During the summer, the Bay Gelding was removed from Mullins’ yard by owner Michael O’Leary and placed under the tutelage of Elliott.

The decision did not have an adverse effect on the Irish horse as he maintained his form, winning the Lexus Chase along with two second-place finishes at Puncheston and Down Royal.

Despite Outlander’s impressive form during 2016, one area of concern will be his performances at Cheltenham Racecourse. The nine-year-old has raced twice at the venue and failed to finish in the top five on both occasions. Last season he was unable to finish the race after a fall in the JLT Novices’ Chase, while a mistake in 2015 on the fourth fence led to a sixth-place finish in the Novices’ Hurdle. As a result, O’Leary and Elliott will be worried ahead of his third appearance on the course.

They have time to amend the situation – whether it’s the hurdles or the type of ground at the Cheltenham course causing the issues. Should Kennedy be chosen to take the reins in the Gold Cup he will have a challenge to keep Outlander on the straight and narrow.

Colin Tizzard’s horses will throw a further obstacle in the way of the Irish horse. Both Cue Card and Native River are on top form, with the former triumphing in his last outing at the Ascot Chase, while the Chestnut Gelding eased to victory at the Denman Chase.

 

 

Cheltenham Preview Tuesday 10th March

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The Cheltenham Festival gets under way on Tuesday with the bookmakers braced for a Willie Mullins onslaught. He saddles four hot favourites with Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen and Annie Power. 888Sport are offering 20-1 about all four winning and there will be plenty of takers.

We like to search out a little bit of value where we can find it and there are plenty of special offers on the first race. The pick of them is from William Hill where all losing bets are refunded as free bets up to £25. L’Ami Serge has done nothing wrong for Nicky Henderson and the form of his Newbury win in November looks pretty smart with Kilcooley and Violet Dancer both claiming valuable prizes since. If there is to be a shock, it could come from Seedling who has been carefully prepared for this race all season by Warren Greatrex.

If you’re betting on the Arkle, Paddy Power will refund your stake as a free bet if Un De Sceaux wins. That makes Vibrato Valtat a very tempting proposition at 6-1. I had wondered if he was keeping a bit to himself in his races but he strode clear at Warwick last time impressively.

The Festival Handicap Chase should give the bookies a bit of relief from the big hitters. I’ll be interested to see how Monbeg Dude gets on here as he is one of our Grand National hopes this year. I don’t think the going will be soft enough for him to win but hope to see him run on into fourth or fifth. Connections have decided against running Mendip Express in the National this year but they may live to regret it if he comes up the hill impressively here.

We have covered the Champion Hurdle in detail and Arctic Fire is a hopeful each-way selection in small field. I’m not convinced that Faugheen is a specialist two-miler but the same applies to The New One who looks his biggest threat. Annie Power looks difficult to beat in the Mares Hurdle and the 7-1 with Skybet looks a generous offer for new customers. As an each-way alternative, try L’Unique at 20-1 for Alan King providing that there is no significant overnight rain.

In the National Hunt Chase I am siding with Cause Of Causes who was unlucky not to peg back Spring Heeled last year. I respect the chances of King’s Sego Success and Very Wood will be popular if Mullins has already enjoyed a field day. The closing handicap looks tricky but Tony McCoy will surely be among the winners this week at some point and Bold Henry has course form.

1.30 L’Ami Serge @7-2 William Hill*

1.30 Seedling @16-1 William Hill* (each-way)

*Stakes refunded as free bets on all losers

2.05 Vibrato Valtat @6-1 Paddy Power** Stakes refunded as free bets if Un De Sceaux wins

2.40 Mendip Express @16-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

3.20 Arctic Fire @20-1 Totesport (each-way)

4.00 Annie Power @7-1 Sky Bet*** New customers only – max. £5

4.00 L’Unique @20-1 Coral (each-way)

4.40 Cause Of Causes @8-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

5.15 Bold Henry @12-1 Ladbrokes (each-way)

Special bet – Willie Mullins four-timer Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen, Annie Power @20-1 888Sport

Betcirca bashes bookies at Cheltenham!

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Followers of this column were in betting heaven on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival with the first four winners! Ante-post tips Faugheen (10-1), O’Faolains Boy (16-1), Whisper (18-1) and Sire De Grugy (25-1) left the bookies reeling. Punters who linked the four together would have been celebrating an accumulator paying over 92,000-1!

The ante-post selections were placed over a period of time stretching back to December when Sire De Grugy was considered no more than an outsider for the Champion Chase. On Tuesday he confirmed his status as the leading two-mile chaser in Britain and Ireland with a comfortable victory.

Faugheen was red-hot favourite for the opening Neptune Hurdle and duly obliged having been picked out at 10-1. O’Faolains Boy then battled to victory in the RSA Chase for Barry Geraghty before Whisper got the verdict in a photo-finish for the Coral Cup.

Thursday’s card can only be an anti-climax after a day like that! Our only ante-post advice going into day 3 is Cause Of Causes at 12-1 in the Kim Muir at 4.40. Nina Carberry has the ride and must have a decent chance. The horse had no less than seven entries at the meeting but connections have elected to go for the three-mile race with the going firming up.

The big race is the World Hurdle which has been billed as a clash between four-time winner Big Buck’s and the unbeaten Irish mare Annie Power. As much as I respect both horses, I feel that the value bet has to be each-way on Zarkandar at 14-1. He’s as tough as old boots and has been crying out for this trip all season.

Nicholls elected to give the Champion Hurdle a miss this season after he appeared to be outpaced at crucial stages of the race for the past two seasons. It is slightly odd that he hasn’t actually found out if Zarkandar stays but I feel it is highly likely.

The Ryanair has failed to capture my imagination at all this season and I’ll be avoiding it. Dynaste was among my ante-post bets for the Gold Cup but ran poorly in the King George. If he’s back to his best he will be tough to beat but there is little value left.

Thursday

Zarkandar (World Hurdle) at 14-1 Paddy Power

*Ante-post – Cause Of Causes at 12-1 (4.40 Cheltenham)

Cheltenham Ante-Post Update

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With just two weeks remaining, it’s a good time to take stock of our Cheltenham ante-post portfolio. The news that Sprinter Sacre will not run in the Champion Chase is not really a surprise, given the enormous pressure that Nicky Henderson must have been under.

A horse can almost become too popular so that the public feel as though they own a share in it. I know that David Elsworth always wanted to run Desert Orchid in the Grand National but the risks were just too great with such public property. Hopefully Sprinter Sacre will return safe and well next season.

The plus side is that we advised Sire De Grugy at 25-1 in this column several weeks ago and he is now trading at around 2-1. We also suggested that Le Rocher (Triumph Hurdle) was too big at 14-1 (now 6-1) and the same applies to Last Instalment 6-1 from 14-1 (Gold Cup). Our long-range Gold Cup tips were Silviniaco Conti at 9-1 and Dynaste at 25-1 so we should be in the money somewhere.

Kings Palace 7-2 from 5-1 and Irving (7-2 from 16-1 advised) give us some great chances in the novice events while we have Un Temps Pour Tout (25-1), Red Sherlock (20-1) and Faugheen (10-1) in the Neptune.

The Champion Hurdle has never really captured my imagination this season with My Tent Or Yours, The New One and Hurricane Fly pretty well dominating the market. I like double-figure prices for most festival races and there hasn’t been any great value.

The handicaps are yet to be assessed and I don’t think it is worth spending too much time on them just yet with over 1,000 entries! I have a number of horses in mind but will wait to see how the handicapper treats them. I’ll then be seeking some early value to bolster our healthy looking ante-post book.

Bet365 are already offering NR No Bet on all 27 festival races and I think that is tremendous value. I hope the other firms follow suit shortly!

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

Supreme – Irving 16-1

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1

National Hunt Chase – Foxrock 9-1

Cheltenham Friday Preview

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Channel 4 is screening four races live from Cheltenham on Friday with plenty of competitive racing. Possibly the most informative race regarding the Cheltenham festival takes place before Channel 4 come on air with Oscar Whisky and Wonderful Charm meeting in the opening novice chase.

Oscar Whisky has his detractors but there is no denying that he was a seriously good hurdler. Things did not work out well for him over fences here last time when forced to make his own running. There was no pace whatsoever in the early stages and Oscar Whisky was all over the place with his jumping until Geraghty gave up the ghost and kicked on.

He was eventually run out of it by Taquin Du Seuil but that was no disgrace and he should strip fitter on Friday. I am a great fan of Wonderful Charm and I can see him going for the RSA Chase in March. I just wonder whether he will be able to concede 8lbs to such a smart horse as Oscar Whisky on good ground over this trip.

The Hennessy Gold Cup did this column a huge favour when Triolo D’Alene gave us a 25-1 winning tip and the form comes under the microscope tomorrow. The third home was Colin Tizzard’s Theatre Guide, a promising six-year-old with decent novice form last season. He didn’t run well at all here previously but connections believe that he is a different proposition this season so he’s worth supporting.

There are some familiar names in the field including Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude and formerly smart Burton Port. I fancied the latter for the Grand National a couple of years ago but he missed the race and has not recaptured the form that saw him finish fourth in a Gold Cup. Monbeg Dude has not had his favoured soft ground yet but has been running well and Aintree is his long-term objective.

Nicky Henderson saddles Fourth Estate and Livius in the handicap hurdle and everything seems to point to Fourth Estate. He finished second to Ranjaan at Kempton and will be better suited by this track.

Paul Nicholls could hardly believe his eyes when Southfield Theatre and Salubrious were both overhauled by Return Spring at the last meeting here and goes in search of revenge. His horses are running much better now and I take Southfield Theatre to come out on top with a small pull in the weights.

Finally, keep an eye on Garde Le Victoire in the last. His hurdling needs some work but that could be down to the fact that he has outclassed the opposition in his last couple of races. He looks Cheltenham novice material and can remain unbeaten.

12.30 Oscar Whisky Even money BetVictor

1.40 Fourth Estate 9-4 BetVictor non runner

2.10 Theatre Guide 5-1 888Sport

3.15 Southfield Theatre 4-1 Bet365

3.45 Garde Le Victoire 11-4 BetVictor

Cheltenham Saturday Preview

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Balthazar King (2-1) kept our noses in front on Friday with a game display in the cross country race at Cheltenham. I was a bit concerned after an early mistake but he’s as tough as old boots and just refused to be beaten.

Our ambitious ante-post wagers on the Paddy Power Gold Cup still stand with Kumbeshwar (40-1) and Astracad (33-1) hoping to sneak some place money in a wide open race. The more I look at this race, the more confused I become! Confidence seems to have evaporated in Johns Spirit who is back out to 8-1 and I’m just wondering if he’s up to this class.

With so many good horses available at big odds, I’m going to add Battle Group to my team of long shots at a very generous 25-1 with Stan James. He has a reputation as a bit of a rogue but you cannot argue with back-to-back wins at Aintree and a win in a valuable race at Haydock. He was heavily backed in all three races and I can see him running a lot better than his odds suggest tomorrow.

Scottish National winner Godsmejudge makes his return to action on the same card and looks fair value at 15-2. Wayne Hutchinson rides him superbly and trainer Alan King reports the horse to be in fine form at home.

African Gold did well to win over hurdles, let alone chase home At Fishers Cross at the festival meeting. He’s a big strapping sort with a future over fences and he makes his chasing bow tomorrow in the 1.15. He has a certain AP McCoy to beat on Shutthefrontdoor but I can see African Gold making up into an RSA Chase candidate this season.

Timesremembered looked an above average hurdler when winning at Chepstow last time out and he can extend his winning sequence to three in the 3.35 race. This is a much tougher race but I think that he will start shorter than 11-4.

African Gold 2-1 BetVictor, Sportingbet

Godsmejudge 15-2 Stan James

Battle Group (each-way) 25-1 Stan James

Timesremembered 11-4  Stan James