Tag: Cheltenham

Champion Chase Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If you were only allowed to watch one race at the Cheltenham festival this year, it would surely be the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy have their own fanatical following but both have endured a troubled lead-up to the race.

Up against them are the young pretenders, Dodging Bullets and Champagne Fever. Paul Nicholls must be delighted that Dodging Bullets has dodged the spotlight despite victories in the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House Chase (tipped on both occasions on Betcirca).

If Sprinter Sacre returns to his best form it is difficult to see him being beaten. However, it is impossible to know whether he will ever be as good as he was before that unfortunate incident at Kempton. Nicky Henderson has been cautiously optimistic and he did travel well for a long way at Ascot but there is always the dreaded “bounce factor” to consider.

Sire de Grugy will have his usual entourage of scarf-waving supporters after a comfortable win at Chepstow put him back on course for the race. His jumping went to pieces at Newbury on his previous start and we have now been told about his special shoes to cope with a corn on his foot. Both he and Sprinter Sacre are proven champions but it has been a difficult road to Cheltenham.

Dodging Bullets started his season with a third behind Uxizandre and he may just have needed the run that day. He gave us a 9-1 winner in the Tingle Creek when beating Somersby and followed up at 7-2 by spoiling Sprinter Sacre’s return party. I fancied him for the Arkle last year but he ran too freely and didn’t get home, finishing back in fourth behind Western Warhorse.

The unlucky horse that day was Champagne Fever who had been given a super ride by Ruby Walsh only to be collared by a 33-1 shot. Mullins has so many favourites running next week that Champagne Fever has also missed the headline makers. He won easily recently to restore his confidence over fences and he has won at this meeting twice before. With so much speed in the field, they won’t be hanging about and I can see Champagne Fever battling his way up the hill once again.

It is difficult to oppose Dodging Bullets but I just have reservations about him at this track. He has just curled up here in the past on the run-in so I am siding with Champagne Fever at 6-1 with Paddy Power.

World Hurdle Preview

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The World Hurdle is the big staying hurdle of the Cheltenham festival and looks wide open this year. Big Buck’s dominated the event for Paul Nicholls between 2009 and 2012 but has now been retired while More Of That is not able to defend his title due to injury.

Annie Power remains favourite with some firms but looks virtually certain to run in the Mares’ Hurdle instead. Willie Mullins is presumably leaving her in here until the last moment in case of any calamities in the earlier race. Nicholls could easily start with the two joint-favourites here in Saphir Du Rheu and Zarkandar.

Saphir Du Rheu did this column a couple of favours last season when winning at Kempton and Chepstow. His excursion over the bigger obstacles did not go to plan and connections wisely decided to revert to hurdling after he failed to complete for the second time in three starts. He only had a neck to spare over the gallant Reve de Sivola at Cheltenham in the Cleeve Hurdle but he travelled like the winner throughout.

Zarkandar won a valuable race in France over three miles earlier this season and looked set to follow up in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. He found very little off the bridle from the last and allowed Reve de Sivola to get back up and beat him. He was probably just idling but you can be sure that Noel Fehily will be delaying his challenge until as late as possible here. Of the Nicholls duo, I just prefer Saphir Du Rheu who looks a straight-forward ride.

If you fancy Saphir Du Rheu, it is very difficult to ignore the claims of Whisper at 14-1. Nicky Henderson’s gelding won the Coral Cup last season to give us a 28-1 winning ante-post tip. He showed that he was better than a handicapper when winning the Aintree Hurdle and he is another one who did not take to fences. He could still be improving and must have each-way claims.

Rock On Ruby has been winning over two and a half miles but is yet to show that he stays this trip. The Irish pair Monksland and Dedigout surely need plenty of cut in the ground and that seems unlikely at present. There is even talk of the possibility of watering during the meeting. Un Temps Pour Tout would also appreciate some give in the ground and looks more of a chaser in the making.

Saphir Du Rheu @5-1 Bet365

Whisper @14-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (non-runner – no bet)

William Hill money-back offer on Supreme Hurdle

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The Cheltenham Special offers are coming thick and fast now with William Hill announcing a great money-back offer on the opening race of the meeting.

Paddy Power are offering money back on losing bets in the Supreme Hurdle and the Arkle Chase if the Willie Mullins-trained Douvan or Un De Sceaux prove successful. The offer applies up to £50 per customer.

William Hill are also focussing on the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but will refund ALL losing bets, irrespective of the result, up to maximum of £25 per customer. The stakes will be refunded as free bets in your William Hill account and the offer starts from 8.30am on Friday.

You need to bet via mobile or online to claim back the £25 which must then be staked within 24 hours. Betting shop customers can claim a refund of £10 which must be invested in the following race at the meeting, the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase.

The Supreme will be a very significant race for bookmakers this year, even more so than usual. Mullins, top trainer at the meeting for the past two seasons, saddles 7-4 favourite Douvan who is the first of four (possibly five) favourites for the stable on the opening day. There will doubles, trebles and accumulators in their thousands resting on the shoulders of Ruby Walsh in the opener.

The big danger is Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge who would be favourite in a normal year. He won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown by 14 lengths and is unbeaten in three races since arriving from France. There was no disguising Henderson’s confidence in the horse at his recent media day at the Lambourn stables and there will be plenty willing to take the 4-1 on offer with a money-back guarantee!

Although there are currently 83 entries for the race, there are relatively few serious contenders. Several have entries in the other novice races at the meeting but Jollyallan will have his supporters with Tony McCoy likely to take the ride. Harry Fry’s gelding is owned by JP McManus and was just beaten by Garde La Victoire in a Listed race last time. You can currently get 9-1 about Jollyallan with William Hill.

Remember, the refund only applies up to a maximum of £25 per customer or £10 to retail customers. (Open to win and each-way bets)

Latest William Hill prices; 7-4 Douvan, 4-1 L’Ami Serge, 9-1 Jollyallan

Champion Hurdle Ante-Post Preview

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The Champion Hurdle is the feature race of the opening day of the Cheltenham festival and the betting market suggests that a new champion will be crowned on March 10th.

Faugheen has been at the head of the market all season and remains unbeaten in eight races for Willie Mullins. The gelding won the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle last year over two and a half miles and has won his trials at Ascot and Kempton this season. The form of both races is open to question, particularly the Christmas Hurdle where Irving and Sign Of A Victory both ran way below expectations.

When we think of the greatest hurdlers such as Sea Pigeon, See You Then and Istabraq, we think of their brilliant hurdling technique as well as their speed. Faugheen has not been entirely convincing at his hurdles this season and this will be his first real test at two-mile championship pace. Odds of around 5-4 look decidedly skinny.

Plenty of people will be hoping to see the old warrior Hurricane Fly win the race for a third time having been successful in 2011 and 2013. It would be truly remarkable to reclaim his title for a second time but it is by no means impossible. He has beaten the reigning champion Jezki three times this season and yet is still available at 8-1 with most firms. Hatton’s Grace (1951) and Sea Pigeon (1981) are the only horses to have previously won this race at the age of eleven and there is no doubt that he is in their class.

Jezki has had a similar campaign to last season when everything fell right for him on Champion Hurdle day. He looked held when being brought almost to a standstill at the final flight at Leopardstown and may be better suited by being held up at the back of the field. He was passed on the run-in by another Mullins runner in Arctic Fire and he could easily be good enough to sneak into the frame.

He was just beaten in the County Hurdle last year but has gone up nearly a stone in the official ratings since. He tracked Hurricane Fly’s run through last time and similar tactics could see him finish in the money at Cheltenham. The New One has won all five races since his unlucky run here last year when hampered by the fall of the ill-fated Our Conor. Like Faugheen, he won the two and a half mile novice at this meeting and is arguably a better horse over that distance.

Arctic Fire @16-1 Stan James

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (Non-runner – no bet)

Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante-Post Preview

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With most bookmakers offering non-runner – no bet on the feature races at Cheltenham, now is a good time to seek out some early value. Bet365 are offering money back on all non-runners at the meeting and the other firms will gradually follow suit as the meeting approaches.

The market for the Cheltenham Gold Cup has been dominated by Silviniaco Conti since he recorded his second King George VI Chase victory in December. Paul Nicholls issued an up-beat report on the gelding this week, suggesting that he is in much better shape than he was last year when fading into fourth place on the run-in. He is obviously the one to beat but does not represent any great value at around 7-2.

Last year’s Gold Cup changed dramatically after the last fence with Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti swamped by three horses arriving late on the opposite side of the track. Leading the charge was Lord Windermere who is back to defend his crown for Jim Culloty. Having won the RSA Chase the previous season, he seems to be one of those horses that peaks at exactly the right time. I felt that he ran a fine trial when third behind Carlingford Lough in the Irish Hennessy and is worth a bet at 14-1 with Ladbrokes. He is as short as 10-1 elsewhere so the 14-1 may not last much longer.

I respect the chance of Many Clouds having supported him in the Hennessy at Newbury at the start of the season. Oliver Sherwood sent out his 1,000th winner not long ago so he knows how to prepare them for the festival. I did not get on him at longer odds so will not be rushing to back him at 8-1. Road To Riches struck me as a doubtful stayer earlier in the season and I have more regard for Djakadam.

There won’t be many Mullins horses on offer at 16-1 at the festival and he could not have won any easier in the fog at Gowran Park in January. With Ruby Walsh aboard, he can bide his time and see how the race unfolds. No decision has yet been made about Foxrock but he has run three terrific races in succession and may not get his favoured soft ground.

I don’t like backing novices in the Gold Cup so cannot see Coneygree featuring while Holywell is worthy of respect. He has won here at the last two festival meetings and Jonjo O’Neill would not be running him unless he felt that he was back to his best.

Tips

Lord Windermere @14-1 Ladbrokes

Djakadam @16-1 Ladbrokes

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (Non-runner – no bet)

Bet365 NR – No Bet on All Cheltenham races!

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From midnight on Friday, Bet365 are offering non-runner – no bet on all races at this year’s Cheltenham festival! With so many horses still holding multiple entries, this means that you can take a price without the worry of the trainer opting to run the horse in a different race at the meeting.

Up until now, Bet365 have only been offering the non-runner – no bet option on the big four championship races; Cheltenham Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase and World Hurdle. If you don’t already have a Bet365 account, they are currently offering a 100% welcome bonus up to a maximum of £200.

Most of the recognised Cheltenham trials have already taken place but reigning Champion Chaser Sire de Grugy fluffed his lines at Newbury recently and is out to make amends at Chepstow tomorrow. New customers to Skybet can get 6-1 about the odds-on favourite up to a maximum stake of £5. If all goes to plan for the popular chestnut, your winnings are paid as free bets into your new account.

Gary Moore’s gelding has only three opponents in the 3.35 race but will be conceding lumps of weight. His most dangerous rival looks to be Far West, trained by Paul Nicholls. He was beaten by the useful novice Top Gamble at Newbury last time out and receives 22lbs from the favourite. Grey Gold and Mister Grez complete the field but both were well beaten last time out.

There are two big handicap chases this weekend, the BetBright Chase at Kempton which we have previewed separately, and the Eider Chase at Newcastle. The Eider is a gruelling four miles and one furlong race with Shotgun Paddy attempting to defy top weight of 11st 12lb for Emma Lavelle. Things did not go his way in the Welsh National when he pulled up after an early mistake but he ran with great credit when third at Warwick last time out.

The field also includes the last two winners of the race in Wyck Hill and Portrait King. Both appear to have been brought along steadily with this race in mind. They and Shotgun Paddy all hold entries in the Grand National in April and a prominent showing on Saturday may see their prices cut for Aintree.

Sire de Grugy 6-1 to win 3.35 Chepstow @Skybet *Special bet terms apply