Tag: Cheltenham

Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview

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It’s the Open meeting at Cheltenham this weekend featuring two big betting races in The Paddy Power Gold Cup (Saturday) and The Greatwood Hurdle (Sunday).

The Paddy Power Gold Cup looks wide open with bookmakers going 7-1 the field. That brings in festival winner Present View who showed his well-being with a fine run in a hurdle race last month. A mistake at the last cost him victory that day but connections were more concerned with an injury picked up in the process. Fortunately it turned out to be no more than skin deep and he is reported back in great form ahead of Saturday’s race.

Last year’s first and second, John’s Spirit and Colour Squadron, return to do battle once again. There is no doubt that the runner-up was unlucky last year when finishing fast to be beaten only three-quarters of a length. He continued to run well in subsequent races but has not managed to get his head in front since 2011. That is hardly a great recommendation but I felt that he was very unlucky not to win at Newton Abbot last time out.

Tom O’Brien was a late replacement for Tony McCoy and decided to let Colour Squadron kick on a long way from home. He should have beaten Wonderful Charm at the weights but began to tie up in the closing stages and was pegged back on the run-in. I feel that he is good value at 12-1 for another big run in this race. He is 4lbs better off with last year’s winner Johns Spirit who recently won in good style. You have to respect Jonjo O’Neill’s horse but he is 17lbs higher than a year ago.

Oscar Whisky has won six times at Cheltenham in his career, all at or around this distance. He fell at the first fence at the festival and was beaten by Uxizandre at Aintree but is a classy horse and should go well. You just wonder whether he stayed over hurdles a little too long to fulfil his potential over fences and it would be a great effort to win this first time out.

Easter Meteor fell two out in this race last year but I’m not convinced that he was travelling well enough to trouble the first two.  He is now with David Pipe but has been put up 8lbs since so is not exactly a dark horse.  Buywise was let down by his jumping when fifth to Present View here in March but put in a clear round to slam Astracad by nine lengths next time. He defied a 6lbs rise at Ludlow but is up a further 6lbs on Saturday.

Colour Squadron @14-1 888Sport, Betway

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

O’Faolains Boy has Gold Cup potential

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It may seem strange to be looking forward to the 2015 Cheltenham festival already but the rest of the jump season pales into insignificance after the four days we enjoyed last week. Or wonderful Wednesday haul of four winners left us with a profit on our Cheltenham portfolio of more than 50 points.

I’m going to re-invest the first of those on one of our winners, O’Faolains Boy. He is currently available at 20-1 for the 2015 Gold Cup and I feel this is under-estimating him, just as the bookmakers did in the wake of his Reynoldstown Chase victory.

For whatever reason, he hasn’t quite received the acclaim of previous winners of the RSA Chase. Yet, to my eyes at least, it was a top class renewal with good quality runners from Britain and Ireland. I will be amazed if we don’t see half of dozen of them winning top class races next season.

I am also influenced by the result of this year’s Gold Cup. Not only was it won by the previous year’s RSA winner for the second year running, it left the distinct impression that any one of five horses could have won the race on a different day. There is clearly room for a new talent to emerge and I see no reason why O’Faolains Boy cannot be the one.

As I mentioned when tipping him for Cheltenham, you could safely ignore his poor run at Haydock behind Taquin Du Seuil as it came at a time when the Rebecca Curtis stable was under a cloud. His Ascot victory over Many Clouds in the Reynoldstown was as good as I had seen from a staying novice all season.

Andy King’s Smad Place ran a great race in defeat and there is no reason why he cannot go on to be as successful over fences as he was over hurdles. Alan King must have been thrilled with him but I always felt that Barry Geraghty had more up his sleeve if he needed it. He acts on all types of ground and could be even better next year if he gets an un-interrupted preparation.

The bookmakers clearly feel that the Gold Cup is wide open and go 10-1 the field. I would agree with that assessment but feel that O’Faolains Boy should be much shorter than 20-1. He will do to kick off our Cheltenham portfolio 2015!

O’Faolains Boy at 20-1 Paddy Power, Skybet

Uttoxeter Saturday Preview

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That’s Cheltenham over for another year and what a dramatic final day! I cannot remember another day like it. The Gold Cup was a thriller with victory just going to Lord Windermere over On His Own and the enigmatic The Giant Bolster.

The down side was the horrific injuries to Ruby Walsh and Daryl Jacob and the tragic death of Raya Star. Last Instalment was retired immediately after the Gold Cup and we can only hope that he has not incurred any lasting damage to his fragile legs.

In terms of betting, Betcirca followers finished 50 points up on the week to a level stake thanks to that fantastic Wednesday. The bookies fought back on the closing day, as they usually do! Hopefully Kings Palace is OK after his tumble and apparently Triolo D’Alene had a breathing problem in the Gold Cup.

It is difficult to revert to the usual Saturday cards after such high drama but Uttoxeter have put on a good card to keep us entertained. The feature race is the Midlands National and we need not look any further than the Eider Chase winner Wyck Hill. A big-money purchase for JP McManus last year, he failed to live up to his billing and skipped the Grand National. He came back with a bang at Newcastle last time and can make up for lost time on Saturday.

David Bridgwater must be overjoyed at the fantastic effort from The Giant Bolster to get into the frame for the third successive year in the Gold Cup. He has always held Wyck Hill in similarly high regard and the weights have fallen perfectly for him on Saturday.

Harry Topper has compressed the weights for half of the field leaving Wyck Hill with just 10st 6lb and at a considerable advantage with those below him. He looks great value at 10-1.

The handicap hurdle at 2.15 looks like a great opportunity for Songsmith. The six-year-old made a remarkable comeback after a lengthy absence to finish second to Nicky Henderson’s Full Shift at Kempton. He was a 40-1 shot that day and won’t be anything like that here but he makes plenty of appeal.

The winner did nothing to boost the form with a poor run at Cheltenham on Friday but he has always looked more of a chaser in the making.

Wyck Hill at 10-1 BetVictor

Songsmith at 6-1 Paddy Power

Cheltenham Gold Cup Day Preview

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Our Cheltenham ante-post bets have done us proud this week with a 64 points level stake profit on Wednesday’s wagers. It looked for a long way as if Cause Of Causes (tipped at 12-1) was going to give us another winner on Thursday but he pecked at the last and couldn’t make up the lost ground.

A shame to see Big Buck’s go out with a bit of a whimper after such a tremendous career. The Nicholls stable really aren’t enjoying the best of luck this week but perhaps Calipto and Silviniaco Conti will change that on Friday.

Our Triumph Hurdle hopes were dashed earlier in the week when Le Rocher was pulled out. Activial was also taken out, although we backed him on NR – no bet terms so get our stakes refunded. The same applies to Rocky Creek in the Gold Cup.

Silviniaco Conti has to be our leading hope tomorrow having taken 9-1 at the start of the season. He must have been first or second last year had he stood up at the last. Ruby Walsh was reluctant to comment last year but Nicholls was “gutted”. I’m a little concerned that the going may be on the fast side because that will suit Bobs Worth perfectly but they have started watering.

We also snapped up 40-1 about Triolo D’Alene before McCoy was booked. I must admit that I have always been a bit of a jinx for the champion jockey so this is a good opportunity for him to end the sequence. I have to admit that I am slightly sceptical about headlines such as “plunge horse”. He was 40-1 NR – no bet so that was the time for anyone to back him. Why wait for Henderson to declare him a definite runner and then be happy to take 16-1?

Last Instalment was briefly 14-1 after winning the Irish Hennessy and should run a big race but the ground is also a concern for him. Kings Palace was about the shortest ante-post bet we had on the festival and I still fancy him strongly, particularly as Pipe has now trained three festival winners. Cheltenian has a chance in the County Hurdle so plenty of opportunities to top up our winnings.

Friday

Ante-Post

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1, Activial 10-1

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca 16-1, Cheltenian 14-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1, Triolo D’Alene 40-1, Rocky Creek 33-1

Betcirca bashes bookies at Cheltenham!

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Followers of this column were in betting heaven on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival with the first four winners! Ante-post tips Faugheen (10-1), O’Faolains Boy (16-1), Whisper (18-1) and Sire De Grugy (25-1) left the bookies reeling. Punters who linked the four together would have been celebrating an accumulator paying over 92,000-1!

The ante-post selections were placed over a period of time stretching back to December when Sire De Grugy was considered no more than an outsider for the Champion Chase. On Tuesday he confirmed his status as the leading two-mile chaser in Britain and Ireland with a comfortable victory.

Faugheen was red-hot favourite for the opening Neptune Hurdle and duly obliged having been picked out at 10-1. O’Faolains Boy then battled to victory in the RSA Chase for Barry Geraghty before Whisper got the verdict in a photo-finish for the Coral Cup.

Thursday’s card can only be an anti-climax after a day like that! Our only ante-post advice going into day 3 is Cause Of Causes at 12-1 in the Kim Muir at 4.40. Nina Carberry has the ride and must have a decent chance. The horse had no less than seven entries at the meeting but connections have elected to go for the three-mile race with the going firming up.

The big race is the World Hurdle which has been billed as a clash between four-time winner Big Buck’s and the unbeaten Irish mare Annie Power. As much as I respect both horses, I feel that the value bet has to be each-way on Zarkandar at 14-1. He’s as tough as old boots and has been crying out for this trip all season.

Nicholls elected to give the Champion Hurdle a miss this season after he appeared to be outpaced at crucial stages of the race for the past two seasons. It is slightly odd that he hasn’t actually found out if Zarkandar stays but I feel it is highly likely.

The Ryanair has failed to capture my imagination at all this season and I’ll be avoiding it. Dynaste was among my ante-post bets for the Gold Cup but ran poorly in the King George. If he’s back to his best he will be tough to beat but there is little value left.

Thursday

Zarkandar (World Hurdle) at 14-1 Paddy Power

*Ante-post – Cause Of Causes at 12-1 (4.40 Cheltenham)

Cheltenham Day Two Preview

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Day One of the Cheltenham festival did not exactly go to plan! Irving carried our hopes in the first but never looked like getting involved at any stage. It looked as though Glens Melody was going to save the day for us when striking for home in the Mares’ Hurdle but Quevega would not be denied a sixth consecutive victory in the race.

The low point of the was the tragic death of Our Conor following a heavy fall in the Champion Hurdle. I hope there is no repetition of this during the week as the ground dries out. For ground officially given as good to soft, it seems odd that a new course record was set by Vautour in the first. There was always a risk that the form book would be turned upside down after the horses have been running on soft ground for months.

We are already heavily involved in day two and Sire De Grugy’s performance in the Champion Chase could determine whether we are in profit this week. We snapped up 25-1 months ago about him and he is likely to off at around 5-2. I really don’t fancy anything else in the race so let’s hope he can keep his form.

We are also on at big odds in the opener with Faugheen at 10’s and Red Sherlock at 20’s. Either would give us a tidy profit. Space Ship didn’t get into the Fred Winter but we have our stake returned on the NR – no bet terms. That race looks impossible but we’ll re-invest in the Coral Cup.

Calculated Risk gives us a long shot at 40-1. The going has gone against Kaylif Aramis but I’m optimistic for the chances of Whisper. Nicky Henderson had three runners-up on the opening day and a third so his horses are obviously in flying form. A bit of each-way on Whisper with Nico de Boinville taking off 5lbs seems a wise move.

Modus takes on team Mullins in the Champion Bumper at 5.15. He should improve for the better ground and should also give us a good run.

Wednesday

Coral Cup – Whisper at 18-1 Bet365

Ante-post

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy 16-1

Coral Cup – Calculated Risk 40-1

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Fred Winter – Space Ship 16-1

Champion Bumper – Modus 10-1