Tag: Cheltenham

Cheltenham 2014 Day One Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Cheltenham festival meeting has finally arrived! It seems like trainers have been talking about nothing else since the flat season finished in November and the action gets under way at 1.30 with one of our best bets of the meeting in Irving.

We tipped him back in December at 16-1 and he is now a top-priced 11-4 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He has done nothing wrong all season, other than perhaps one or two sticky jumps. That is a concern in a big field as he cannot afford to guess at one like he did at Kempton last time out. Nick Scholfield can hopefully keep him out of trouble but he’ll have to keep an eye on Ruby Walsh on Vautour.

The one I want to be on each-way is Gilgamboa at 12-1 who was only committed to this race yesterday. He won the competitive Boylesports Hurdle last time out and that was a great run for a novice. I’ve always felt that the gap between a top handicapper and a Grade 1 winner is a lot closer than it seems and he looks cracking each-way value. Better still, Paddy Power will refund your win bet if he is 2nd, 3rd or 4th as a special offer!

We’re on Dodging Bullets at 6-1 in the Arkle. I must admit that I am very surprised to see only 9 runners. I don’t fancy Champagne Fever at all at his odds and I’m leaning towards Rock On Ruby. I tipped him at big odds when he won the Champion Hurdle in 2012 so I have a soft spot for him. The small field is a great boost to his prospects as he has very limited jumping experience.

Hadrian’s Approach is a tentative selection in the Festival Chase at 2.40. Nicky Henderson has been quite vocal in his opinions on this horse but the big worry is his jumping. He has blundered away his chances here before and I’ll be hoping that Barry Geraghty can steer a careful path through a packed field. He does seem to be better in a smaller field but he’s worth a small bet at 10-1.

Glens Melody was value for more than her narrow victory at Warwick last time and could sneak into the frame at a nice price in Quevega’s race. If the great mare is in tip-top shape nothing will beat her but it is worth looking for value as she is now ten years of age and has not had a prep race. Finally, have a small each-way on Ohio Gold at 25-1 in the last. He was third last year and has been prepared by Colin Tizzard for this race all season.

1.30 Ante-post Irving at 16-1

Gilgamboa at 12-1 Paddy Power (money back if 2nd, 3rd or 4th special offer)

2.05 Ante-post Dodging Bullets at 6-1

Rock On Ruby at 9-2 Paddy Power

2.40 Hadrian’s Approach at 10-1 Unibet

4.00 Glens Melody at 16-1 BetBright

4.40 Ante-Post Foxrock at 9-1

5.15 Ohio Gold at 25-1 Skybet, William Hill

Cheltenham Ante-Post Roundup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s time for a final run-down of our ante-post portfolio for next week’s Cheltenham festival. We will be previewing each day in our regular blog with the best bets of the day but here is the state of play.

The tone of the meeting could be set by Irving in the opener. I’ve been an enthusiastic follower since he won at Ascot earlier in the season and he’s now as short as 5-2 in places.

Day two is probably the most important day of the week for our portfolio with 25-1 Sire De Grugy carrying our hopes. If he runs as he did at Ascot he will win but he has not shown his best form at the track in the past and we won’t be able to breathe easily until he’s battled up the famous hill! He is the highlight of a busy day’s betting with three in the Neptune (possibly down to two if Pipe opts for a handicap for Un Temps Pour Tout).

Thursday is the weakest day of the week although it has received a boost with the news that Annie Power is set to clash with Big Buck’s. Friday’s Gold Cup has plenty of interest for us with three likely starters (Rocky Creek and Dynaste may be taken out). King’s Palace is one of our banker bets in the Albert Bartlett and Le Rocher should give us a bold run in the Triumph. Activial is still not a certain starter but we are on NR – No bet.

Good luck with all your Cheltenham bets and join us on Monday for our preview of Tuesday’s card!

Tuesday

Supreme – Irving 16-1

Arkle Chase – Dodging Bullets 6-1

National Hunt Chase – Foxrock 9-1

Wednesday

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy 16-1

Coral Cup – Calculated Risk 40-1

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Fred Winter – Space Ship 16-1

Champion Bumper – Modus 10-1

Thursday

Byrne Group Plate – Cause Of Causes 12-1

Friday

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1, Activial 10-1

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca 16-1, Cheltenian 14-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1, Triolo D’Alene 40-1, Rocky Creek 33-1

Coral Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The picture for the Coral Cup is as clear as mud at the moment with 88 entries. As only 28 can take part, it seems sensible to concentrate on the top half and that leaves several fancied runners out of the reckoning.

The two horses that I have had an eye on for this have problems. Firstly, Nicky Henderson’s Whisper has 11st 11lb. That is only 1lb more than carried by Medinas last year so it can be done but I generally don’t like backing top weights in handicaps. He is also up 6lbs for being beaten by Saphir Du Rheu in the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

The problem for Ascot winner Kaylif Aramis are is the going. He’s a far better horse in soft ground and almost certainly won’t run if it dries up. Un Temps Pour Tout has been touted for this race since romping home at Ascot but I’d have thought he’d have more chance in a novice race. I’d be looking at the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett but his trainer is already strongly represented in both.

I won’t have Dunguib at any price with his weight (11st 12lb) while most of the Paul Nicholls entries are well exposed. The possible exception is Lac Fontana who was taken out of the Imperial Cup at Sandown in favour of a festival run. Bayan is yet to prove that he stays this trip and still holds an entry in the County Hurdle.

Meister Eckhart was second in this race last year when beaten by stable companion Medinas and then finished third at Aintree after looking certain to win. His chasing career was put on hold after a disastrous run at Wincanton and he battled on to finish second to Kayf Moss at Fontwell. The form of the Fontwell race is suspect with Saphir Du Rheu running poorly and there may be better handicapped horses.

I’m going to take a chance on 40-1 shot Calculated Risk here after a win at Sedgefield. That may not sound like Cheltenham form but he was a fair performer on the flat and had acquitted himself well at Sandown on his previous start. He was beaten only four and a quarter lengths by Deep Trouble when finishing sixth after staying on promisingly in the Greatwood Hurdle.

John Quinn has entered him in three races at the meeting so I’m not sure if this will be his first choice. If it is, 40-1 is a good price and Cheltenham is NR – no bet on all races.

Calculated Risk at 40-1 Bet Victor, Coral

Non-runner – No bet

Arkle Chase Preview

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The latest declaration stage has at least whittled down the numbers for the opening day of the Cheltenham festival on Tuesday. The highlight of the day is the Champion Hurdle and JP McManus has dug into his deep pockets to supplement 13-year-old Captain Cee Bee.

It says a lot for the horse’s constitution that he is still fast enough to set the pace for Champion hurdlers. He was only beaten around three lengths when setting the pace in the Irish Champion Hurdle by Hurricane Fly and Our Conor. The injury scare over My Tent Or Yours seems to have been overcome so the race is set up for a sprint finish. I shall be fascinated to see who kicks for home first with The New One also best held up for a late run.

The Champion Hurdle does not strike me as a betting race and I’m more interested in the Arkle Chase. 18 have been declared for the two-mile novice event and I’m sure that Champagne Fever is vulnerable over this trip. He has won at the past two festivals and full credit to Willie Mullins if he has got the grey in tip-top shape again.

I wouldn’t be backing him at the current prices and much prefer the claims of Dodging Bullets. He suffered his first defeat over fences when just caught by Module in desperate ground at Newbury. Bookmakers were un-moved by that performance but I felt it marked him out as a serious chaser. Module ran a stinker on his previous start at Huntingdon but was only beaten a head by Somersby on his seasonal debut.

Raya Star was two and a half lengths back in third, closer than he had been at Cheltenham in November. The going was good that day and the ground seems to be drying out and may even be good to soft by Tuesday. Dodging Bullets looked very smart when seeing off Grandouet by ten lengths in December, especially when you consider he was conceding 6lbs.

I cannot have Grandouet here on level weights and yet he is only a couple of points longer than Dodging Bullets in the betting. Nicholls also runs Hinterland who beat Grandouet by a neck at Sandown. I don’t think there is much doubt that Nicholls regards “Dodger” as the better of the two and he looks worth a bet at 6-1.

Dodging Bullets at 6-1 Bet365

Cheltenham Ante-Post Update

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Virtually all bookmakers are now offering Non-Runner – No Bet terms on all Cheltenham races. I’ve had a few days to absorb the handicap ratings for the big handicaps. I can’t remember seeing so many horses entered for so many different races at the meeting so it is still like looking for a needle in a haystack!

One of the most baffling things about the betting markets is how the bookies trim horses just for being declared a runner! We had picked out Triolo D’Alene at 40-1 for the Gold Cup weeks ago on NR/no bet terms. As soon as Henderson declared him a runner his price was slashed to 20-1. You can’t tell me that punters that didn’t want to back the horse at 40-1 (NR-no bet) are suddenly tripping over themselves to back it at 20-1?

One of my favourite races of the meeting is the County Hurdle. Not that I can remember making any money out of it recently but there’s something about the two-mile handicap hurdlers. Although I am not convinced that Splash Of Ginge is anything out of the ordinary, I did think that the fact that Irish Saint, Dell’ Arca, Cheltenian and Swing Bowler chased him home made it a decent race. I’m happy to stick with Cheltenian (14-1) and Dell’ Arca (16-1) in the ante-post list here as they are lightly-raced and not particularly ground dependent.

Moving away from the handicapc, the Champion Bumper has turned into a Willie Mullins-benefit and probably will be again this year but I was impressed with Modus and he could give us a run at 10-1. He was bred for the flat and has the useful combination of class and speed.

I suppose it is wrong to be put off by a horse falling at home but RSA Chase Ballycasey hardly inspires confidence after his weekend tumble. I think the bookmakers may have underestimated O’Faolains Boy after his Ascot victory. 16-1 seems a big price for a Reynoldstown winner and Rebecca Curtis would not be sending him there unless she rates him.

The going is drying out slowly so it may go against the proven soft ground horses. That includes Kaylif Aramis in the Coral Cup so we may pass him over for the time being.

County Hurdle – Cheltenian at 14-1 Sportingbet

County Hurdle – Dell’ Arca at 16-1 Totesport, Betfred

Champion Bumper – Modus at 10-1 Bet365, Coral

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy at 16-1 Ladbrokes

Cheltenham ante-post update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With the weights now out for the eleven handicap races at the Cheltenham festival, it is time to seek out a bit of early value. That is easier said than done with over 1,000 entries to wade through and the situation is further complicated with so many fancied runners not certain to get a run.

One horse that I have been following from the flat is Space Ship, now trained in Ireland. He was a good handicapper for John Gosden and is slowly improving over hurdles after three races. His flat form suggests that he will improve for a faster surface after failing to pick up in the soft ground that he has recently encountered.

The race for him is the Fred Winter and he can be backed at 16-1 (non-runner/no bet) with Bet365. He looked set to win at Gowran Park last time but just got stuck in the ground between the last two.

Another horse that I have been hoping to catch right is Cause Of Causes. He was just short of Champion Hurdle class last season but won the Ladbroke Hurdle in great style and has been slow to learn his new career over fences. JP McManus bought him last year and he’s come close in his two starts.

Whilst he can hardly be said to have crept in under the radar, his chase rating is still 7lbs less than his official figure over hurdles. The big problem is that he has no less than seven festival entries! My own preference (and that’s all it is) is for the Byrne Group Plate in which he has a featherweight 10st 4lb to carry. 12-1 (NR-No bet) seems worth a bet although the odds aren’t that great that I’ve even picked the right race!

I’m also going to take the 10-1 about Activial for the Triumph Hurdle. The offer of NR/No bet takes out the risk factor while Harry Fry debates whether to keep him for Aintree. I was impressed with his Kempton victory in a race that regularly throws up genuine Triumph contenders and I would estimate his chances at around 6 or 7-1 if he gets the go-ahead. He’ll give us a strong team with our ante-post wager on Le Rocher (14-1).

Space Ship at 16-1 (Fred Winter) Bet365*

Cause Of Causes at 12-1 (Byrne Group Plate) Bet365*

Activial at 10-1 (Triumph Hurdle) Bet365*

*All non-runner – no bet