Tag: Cheltenham

Cheltenham Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With just two weeks remaining, it’s a good time to take stock of our Cheltenham ante-post portfolio. The news that Sprinter Sacre will not run in the Champion Chase is not really a surprise, given the enormous pressure that Nicky Henderson must have been under.

A horse can almost become too popular so that the public feel as though they own a share in it. I know that David Elsworth always wanted to run Desert Orchid in the Grand National but the risks were just too great with such public property. Hopefully Sprinter Sacre will return safe and well next season.

The plus side is that we advised Sire De Grugy at 25-1 in this column several weeks ago and he is now trading at around 2-1. We also suggested that Le Rocher (Triumph Hurdle) was too big at 14-1 (now 6-1) and the same applies to Last Instalment 6-1 from 14-1 (Gold Cup). Our long-range Gold Cup tips were Silviniaco Conti at 9-1 and Dynaste at 25-1 so we should be in the money somewhere.

Kings Palace 7-2 from 5-1 and Irving (7-2 from 16-1 advised) give us some great chances in the novice events while we have Un Temps Pour Tout (25-1), Red Sherlock (20-1) and Faugheen (10-1) in the Neptune.

The Champion Hurdle has never really captured my imagination this season with My Tent Or Yours, The New One and Hurricane Fly pretty well dominating the market. I like double-figure prices for most festival races and there hasn’t been any great value.

The handicaps are yet to be assessed and I don’t think it is worth spending too much time on them just yet with over 1,000 entries! I have a number of horses in mind but will wait to see how the handicapper treats them. I’ll then be seeking some early value to bolster our healthy looking ante-post book.

Bet365 are already offering NR No Bet on all 27 festival races and I think that is tremendous value. I hope the other firms follow suit shortly!

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

Supreme – Irving 16-1

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1

National Hunt Chase – Foxrock 9-1

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With Cheltenham now only three weeks away, it is worth scouring the Internet for some great value prices. If you have a Sportsbet account, they are advertising some fantastic prices for the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle.

The horse that is a relatively short priced favourite in the UK is Ireland’s Faugheen who is unbeaten after five races. His most recent success came in a Grade 3 at Limerick in December over three miles. Connections are confident that he is quick enough to win over two but are favouring the Neptune at present. Sportsbet have him priced at 10-1 so now is the time to move in if you fancy him strongly.

The Tullow Tank is another Irish raider with top class form and looks likely to run here in preference to the Supreme following his second place behind Vautour. The Willie Mullins-trained winner looks very smart and Ruby Walsh was able to dictate the pace and quicken all the way up the finishing straight. It was no disgrace to finish a staying on second and Cheltenham should provide The Tullow Tank with a sufficient test.

Mullins has several options for this race with Briar Hill and Rathvinden standing out at present. Briar Hill won the Champion Bumper last season but has failed to capture the imagination this season. He has continued winning but without impressing and I could see him being saved for the three-mile Albert Bartlett.

Rathvinden was closing on Deputy Dan when  falling at Warwick and then ran a great race behind Red Sherlock at Cheltenham. The winner kept finding extra and looks a typical Pipe horse that just keeps on going. Sportsbet are showing 20-1 about Red Sherlock and you won’t even get half of that over in the UK.

Pipe also has Saturday’s easy Ascot winner Un Temps Pour Tout in the race. He was only second to Zamdy Man on his hurdling debut and you could tell connections were a little shell-shocked that he was beaten. He put matters straight with an easy win at the weekend and the extra half-mile may have been the key to him. Pipe is going to enter him in handicaps but I cannot see him taking that route unless the handicapper is unusually kind. If you fancy him, take the 25-1 with Sportsbet.

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham)

Faugheen at 10-1 Sportsbet

Red Sherlock at 20-1 Sportsbet

Un Temps Pour Tout at 25-1 Sportsbet

Last Instalment over-priced at 14-1 for Gold Cup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Leopardstown was the scene of several key Cheltenham trials on Sunday, none more so than the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup. The feature race at Cheltenham was beginning to look like a two-horse race between Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti but Ireland could have produced a surprise package.

The favourite was First Lieutenant, second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus Chase and second in the Ryanair last season. Although he was a winner over an extended three miles at Aintree, there has always been a suspicion that he does not truly stay the Gold Cup trip.

Providing a line to the form was the evergreen Tidal Bay who is being aimed at the Grand National this year instead of the Gold Cup or World Hurdle. The joker in the pack was Last Instalment, a highly progressive chaser until meeting with an injury that side-lined him for two seasons. He had made a fine comeback when just outpaced by Texas Jack over two and a half miles at Thurles but was expected to appreciate the step up in trip.

Last Instalment produced some mighty leaps in front and always seemed to be going comfortably whereas First Lieutenant came under pressure surprisingly early. Tidal Bay was his usual quirky self with Ruby Walsh shovelling on the coal one minute and apparently going well the next. First Instalment showed no signs of weakening and extended the winning margin to more than eight lengths at the line.

It is rare for bookmakers to differ markedly in their assessment of such a big trial but Coral reacted by slashing Last Instalment to 6-1 third favourite. Ladbrokes disagree and are holding out for 14-1. That sounds a cracking each-way bet for a horse that could produce an ever better performance next month.

My ante-post bets for the race were Silviniaco Conti at 9-1 and Dynaste at 25-1. The King George winner must have a cracking chance whilst Dynaste’s run that day was too bad to be true. If David Pipe can get him to the race he could still spring a surprise. But 14-1 is simply too big a price to ignore for the leading Irish hope and I can’t see it lasting very long.

Last Instalment (each-way) at 14-1 Ladbrokes

16-1 Whisper for Coral Cup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Surprisingly, all three national hunt meetings went ahead on Saturday despite the heavy rain of recent days. With inspections called at Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby, I had virtually given it up as a lost cause and focussed on the all-weather at Lingfield.

Admittedly, Sandown had been forced to abandon their hurdle races in favour of an all-chase card, but it was turf racing nonetheless. Nicky Henderson elected to run Oscar Whisky with good prize money on offer and little in the way of opposition. Sent off at 1-6, I was beginning to wonder if he may be pulled up at one point. Barry Geraghty clearly wasn’t that happy on the horse but was still close enough if his two rivals wilted in front of him.

That is pretty much what happened but I wonder what effect that race will have on his Cheltenham plans? Both trainer and jockey felt it was simply the going and the fact that Oscar Whisky is a stuff horse. With rain still lashing down in many parts, there were precious few genuine Cheltenham prospects on show but I believe the Welsh Champion Hurdle is a different matter altogether.

Since backing Saphir Du Rheu to defy a 15lbs rise in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton, I’ve become a fan of the grey. I was quite confident that he could defy another 13lb hike at Ffos Las and he duly obliged, but only just. The reason was a terrier-like performance from Henderson’s Whisper who had finished nearly ten lengths adrift of Saphir Du Rheu at Sandown.

Whisper had gone on to win easily since and the net result was that he was 16lbs better off with the Nicholls’ horse. Harry Derham, who must be just about the best 5lb claimer about, elected to make the running and Andrew Tinkler followed his every move. The two horses drew nearly 20 lengths clear of the third horse on the run to the line, Saphir Du Rheu clinging on by a short head.

The bookmakers have put up Saphir Du Rheu as favourite for the Coral Cup but I don’t think he will run. Nicholls is itching to put him over a fence and is already talking Gold Cups. I just don’t see him running the horse with the best part of 12 stone on his back in a 30-runner field. As far as I know, there are no such provisos about Whisper and he looks worth a bet at 16-1.

Whisper (Coral Cup) at 16-1 Paddy Power

Get on Sky Bet Cheltenham Price Boost!

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The bookmakers are really pushing the boat out with their Cheltenham offers this season. Not only do we have ante-post prices on all 27 races, several leading firms are already offering non-runner/no bet on the four championship races.

Sky Bet have added a further incentive to get stuck in to those ante-post Cheltenham wagers by offering a price boost on three tips provided by Racing UK experts Lydia Hislop, Mark Howard and Steve Mellish.

I have the greatest respect for Lydia and she is probably the only woman on the planet who could talk for longer about racing than I could without getting bored! I usually find her articles to be right on the money but I have to take issue with one comment she made about Big Buck’s on Saturday. She described the criticism of Sam Twiston-Davies for hitting the front too soon as “pants”. This is based on the fact that Ruby Walsh won on the horse by leading from a similar juncture in a previous World Hurdle.

That overlooks the 420 day lay-off, the heavy going and the fact that it was Twiston-Davies’s first ride on the horse. To my mind, all three contributed to the horse’s defeat but I’m sure we could discuss it if she has a few hours to spare! Although the jockey’s union does not allow criticism of their fellow riders, I think Mick Fitzgerald’s assessment was probably an accurate one and we’ll see Big Buck’s a little further back in the field on March 13th.

Lydia has selected King Palace, previously highlighted in this column, as the winner of the Albert Bartlett. Sky Bet are holding his price at 9-2 until midnight tonight. Mark Howard picked out Ted Walsh’s Foxrock, the winner of a grade 2 event at Naas last week, as his best bet in the National Hunt Chase (offered at 9-1). He is as low as 7-1 elsewhere and market rival Shotgun Paddy is not yet a certain starter.

Finally Steve Mellish weighed in with Le Rocher (also featured in this column on Monday) as his best bet in the Triumph Hurdle. I did not expect 12-1 to last for long but he is on offer at 14-1 until midnight. I am sure that he would be half those odds if he were trained by Nicholls or Henderson. If you haven’t played yet, grab the 14-1 while you can!

Sky Bet price boost

Kings Palace 9-2 Albert Bartlett

Foxrock 9-1 National Hunt Chase

Le Rocher 14-1 Triumph Hurdle

Le Rocher value at 12-1 for Triumph Hurdle

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The weekend trials at Cheltenham and Doncaster did not exactly go to plan. I was looking for a big run from Rocky Creek in the Argento Chase but he went out very tamely when pressed by The Giant Bolster. Connections are apparently considering The Grand National instead of the Gold Cup after that display but I won’t be rushing to back him.

The biggest talking point of the weekend was the defeat of Big Buck’s in the Cleeve Hurdle. After a layoff of 420 days, it was surprising that Sam Twiston-Davies elected to have the horse so prominent from the start. Paul Nicholls has said that he told his jockey to be positive but most observers felt that he was in front far too early. Having said that, it was an encouraging run and he looks the one to beat in the World Hurdle.

The runner that impressed me most was the performance put up by Le Rocher in the Triumph Hurdle trial. There has hardly been a performance of note from the four-year-olds this season but Le Rocher looks the pick of the bunch on this evidence.

Vicenzo Mio was the first of several beaten favourites for the Nicholls team on the day but Le Rocher was backing up a Grade 1 win at Chepstow. Most impressively, he stretched a two and a half-length winning margin over Kentucky Hayden at the Welsh track to ten lengths here. Trainer Nick Williams has no doubt that the horse is capable of winning at the festival and I’m pretty confident that he will persuade the owners to go for the big one.

The going was very testing on Saturday so it would obviously be helpful if the going is soft in March but he also has form on a better surface in France. Ladbrokes have gone out on a limb by sticking to 12-1 and I feel that price cannot last long. He is around 8-1 generally and that is a far more realistic price.

Goodwood Mirage hardly lifted his feet over the last two hurdles when scraping home on his debut and he was little better here. I would imagine he would be heavily schooled and then given a confidence-booster before a trip to Aintree rather than Cheltenham. I cannot see him handling the hustle and bustle of a Triumph Hurdle.

Le Rocher (each-way) at 12-1 Ladbrokes