Tag: Cheltenham

Cheltenham Saturday Preview

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Rocky Creek’s task has been made easier on Saturday by the withdrawal of both Triolo D’Alene and Theatre Guide. I had my suspicions that Nicky Henderson would be reluctant to risk his Grand National hope on soft ground around here so our 5-2 bet is now in to 6-4. It’s still going to be a decent test for Rocky Creek but he should be up to the task.

The media love to chuck around phrases like “Super Saturday” and apparently that is what we are in for this weekend. It is probably more reasonable to describe it as Trial’s day with some serious Cheltenham hopes in action at both Cheltenham and Doncaster.

Paul Nicholls has runners all over the place, headed by Big Buck’s In the Cleeve Hurdle. The bookies have pushed the four-time World Hurdle winner out to even money to overcome his lengthy absence. The vibes have been good and hopefully he can extend his winning sequence to 19 but there is bound to be some anxiety in the Nicholls camp.

A better betting proposition is Double Ross in the handicap at 1.50. Nigel Twiston-Davies is not shy about his horses and I detect plenty of confidence in this one on Saturday. He laughed off a 7lbs increase last time to beat Cedre Bleu on a miserable wet day and is up another 8lbs here. Cedre Bleu has since finished second at Ascot after looking likely to win jumping the last. He seems a bit of a monkey to me and I don’t think he will turn the form around on the revised terms.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Nicholls chalk up five or six winners on Saturday. Vicenzo Mio won by 17 lengths at Kempton and could become a leading contender for the Triumph if he wins the opener. I’m not too sure what he beat that day but the Triumph market is strangely subdued for this late in January and needs a shot in the arm.

I followed Goodwood Mirage on the flat last season and he always looked like he would be better as a four-year-old. He was snapped up for a small fortune to go hurdling and won despite failing to jump the last two on his debut. It was quite an achievement to get up and win having stopped to a virtual standstill. If Jonjo has managed to teach him to hurdle fluently he will be a danger.

Nicholls also has a squeak with Dark Lover in the novices handicap chase. He looked set to win at Newbury recently but didn’t quite find the acceleration needed. Cheltenham brings out the best in him but I’m put off by his weight of 11st 10lb.

David Pipe has suffered a couple of setbacks with incredibly bad runs from Dynaste (King George) and The Liquidator (Tolworth). He will be hoping that Red Sherlock does not fluff his lines tomorrow when he goes for win number 6. I have a feeling that he may have to play second fiddle to the Irish raider Rathvinden who was not done with when falling at Warwick. The race was won by Deputy Dan and that’s pretty smart form.

1.50 Double Ross at 7-2 William Hill

2.25 Rocky Creek at 5-2 ante-post

3.00 Rathvinden at 9-4 Totesport, Betfred

Argento Chase Preview

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It was heavy going at Ascot and Haydock last weekend, in more ways than one! Our selections got bogged down in the mud with the exception of Sire De Grugy who advertised his chance in the Queen Mother Champion Chase with a classy victory.

I hope that some of you managed to get the 25-1 ante-post price on him for the festival! He is now a miserly 11-4 and I wouldn’t be backing him at those odds. I still have reservations about his jumping at Cheltenham and Sprinter Sacre could yet return to the peak of his powers. I’d be optimistic of some place money even if the favourite does still make it to the race.

I’m after some more ante-post value this week with Rocky Creek and Triolo D’Alene in the Gold Cup. Both horses are due to run in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. Paddy Power have already gone non-runner/no bet on the four championship races at the festival and you have to applaud them for it. Naturally, some of their prices are a bit skinny by comparison to the other firms but 33-1 with a run Rocky Creek for the big race will do me.

He has a lot of improvement to find if he is to be competitive with the likes of Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti but Paul Nicholls is no mug and was happy to fork out the entry fee. He gave the horse plenty of work ahead of the Hennessy Gold Cup and gave the impression that he was expecting a victory. In the event he had to settle for the runner-up spot behind Triolo D’Alene but time may show that to be a fair effort.

Having tipped Triolo D’Alene at 25-1 for the Hennessy, I’m reluctant to pass him over here but I just wonder about him if the ground gets really soft. Henderson was quick to pull him out of the Ascot race won by Houblon Des Obeaux and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him diverted again here. BetVictor are also offering a refund on non-runners for Cheltenham and go 40-1 about Triolo D’Alene for Cheltenham.

I was hopeful that Theatre Guide would boost the Hennessy form when he ran at Cheltenham last time but he found Monbeg Dude in excellent form. I must admit that I had the Dude down as something of a mud lark but he looked a different horse that day and readily accounted for Theatre Guide.

Rocky Creek at 5-2 Paddy Power

Ante-post Cheltenham Gold Cup* Non-runner no bet

Rocky Creek at 33-1 (each-way) Paddy Power

Triolo D’Alene at 40-1 (each-way) BetVictor

Sire De Grugy 25-1 for Champion Chase

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Champion Chase Ante-post Preview

Occasionally you see a price chalked up that is just too good to refuse. Admittedly the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham is still the best part of three months away but Sportsbet are still showing 25-1 about Tingle Creek and Desert Orchid Chase winner Sire De Grugy.

Of course the market has been left wide open by the doubts over Sprinter Sacre who was pulled up with an irregular heartbeat at Kempton over Christmas. We are all hoping that he recovers fully and is able to defend his title but there must be some doubt as to whether Nicky Henderson will risk running him again this season.

The latest prognosis was that the problem had righted itself after the race but that the horse will undergo stringent tests before any decisions are made. The welfare of the horse will be the first priority and if Henderson has any doubts at all he will surely not risk his champion chaser.

Gary Moore, trainer of Sire De Grugy, had previously doubted the wisdom of taking on Sprinter Sacre at Cheltenham but his horse is currently the best around over two miles. He did not receive the acclaim that he deserved for winning at Kempton but he looked a class act when winning The Tingle Creek at Sandown and it usually takes a good horse to win that event.

The most famous case of an irregular heartbeat in recent times was Denman who returned to run some magnificent races so all is not lost. I would be surprised if we see Sprinter Sacre this season and that makes the 25-1 a ridiculous price for Sire De Grugy.

His comprehensive defeat of Somersby and Captain Conan at Sandown was on ground faster than ideal, although he does seem far better on a flat track. He did seem to tie up disappointingly when beaten by Kid Cassidy but he had put in some awkward leaps that day and may simply have tired after the last.

Moore had been tempted to miss Cheltenham altogether and perhaps take his horse over to France but he must surely reassess that opinion in light of Sprinter Sacre’s likely absence. At one-quarter the odds a place 1,2,3, this is surely worth a punt. I am sure that those odds won’t last long so take it as a late Christmas present from Sportsbet!

Sire de Grugy at 25-1 Sportsbet.com.au

Cheltenham Wednesday Preview

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Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day card is always a good way to clear away any hangovers and there are several Cheltenham hopefuls in action on Wednesday.

The jury is out as to whether or not Oscar Whisky will be as good a chaser as he was a hurdler but he took advantage of a weight concession from Wonderful Charm here last time. He was forced to make his own running for the second consecutive race having done so against Taquin Du Seuil previously.

He lost out on that occasion but it was a highly unsatisfactory race and Barry Geraghty faces a similar dilemma here. It must be frustrating for the race planners to have a card like this attract only seven runners in total for the two feature races. There are only three involved in the two and a half mile hurdle which is also a rematch, this time between Annie Power and Zarkandar.

I am a great fan of Zarkandar and I thought he ran close to his best against The New One considering he was knocked sideways up the straight. He does seem to have lost a bit of toe and it may be that the World Hurdle is the right race for him at the festival in March. He was comprehensively outpaced by Annie Power at Ascot so has a bit to do on the form book.

A better proposition may be Double Ross who cruised into the lead in the December Gold Cup before needing to be bustled along after the last. He is usually up with the pace but found them going a little too quick that day. He likes softer ground and this smaller field may suit him so a 7lb penalty does not seem harsh.

Another horse with proven course form is Return Spring who produced a late thrust to cut down the Paul Nicholls pair Salubrious and Southfield Theatre in November. Neither of those has won since but they have acquitted themselves well and Return Spring was second to Sunnyhillboy on his return visit.

He is up another 4lbs for that run but he is one of the few who will definitely be staying on at the end of the three miles here. The one I fear most is Whispering Gallery who trotted up at Wetherby in a novice hurdle in February on a tight rein and is difficult to assess. He has high class form on the flat and Barry Geraghty could be a significant booking.

Double Ross at 2-1 BetVictor, William Hill

Return Spring at 100-30 Paddy Power, William Hill

Ascot Saturday Preview

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Irving (tipped at 11-4) gave us a profit on the opening day of Ascot’s Ladbroke Hurdle meeting. He may have had a race on his hands had Prince Siegfried stayed on his feet but there is no doubt he is Cheltenham material. Coral are offering 16-1 about him for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in March so I’m taking some of that before it disappears!

It seems that nobody has a clear opinion on the Ladbroke itself with the bookies now offering 9-1 the field! We could even have 10-1 the field tomorrow until they move in to shorten up the favourites. I don’t see any reason to desert Dell Arca (10-1) whilst Flaxen Flare should also give us a run for our each-way money at 16-1.

The pick of the supporting card is the Ascot Silver Cup in which Triolo D’Alene reappears after his Hennessy triumph. Barry Geraghty triggered a few sniggers amongst the racing hacks when suggesting a rise of 3-4lbs would be fair after Newbury. The handicapper wasn’t fooled for a moment and has lumped on 11lbs tomorrow.

The French import was always travelling well that day and the result wasn’t in doubt from the moment they turned in. I fully expect him to run well tomorrow but I’m swayed towards Houblon Des Obeaux who is now 3lbs better off with a horse that he beat by nine lengths here last time. It’s a case of my head ruling my heart as Venetia Williams’s horse is also 13lbs better off with Triolo D’Alene for Newbury.

My concern is that Houblon Des Obeaux may have lost his form a little but the evidence suggests that he loves Ascot. He was also second to Rocky Creek here last season as a novice and looks good value at 4-1 with everything in his favour. Having backed Triolo D’Alene for the Grand National, I’ll be delighted if he jumps around in second or third before taking a break until the spring.

The Long Walk Hurdle has lost a lot of interest with Celestial Halo having to be withdrawn through injury. At Fishers Cross may have struggled to beat him here but has a much easier task now and it will be disappointing if he cannot pick up Reve De Sivola and Salubrious.

I cannot get excited about the Haydock card. The Tommy Whittle Chase used to be extremely competitive but this looks a poor renewal and is best left alone.

Houblon Des Obeaux 4-1 Bet365

Ante-Post – Irving 16-1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Coral

Racing Preview – Saturday 14th December

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All of our selections ran well on Friday but only Oscar Whisky emerged as a winner. Full credit to Wonderful Charm for putting up a game effort trying to concede 8lbs. Both horses look to have a bright future over fences.

I must admit to being surprised by Monbeg Dude coming to beat Theatre Guide. I had mistakenly believed that he really needed soft ground to be at his best but clearly he can cope with anything in this grade. I don’t think that I will be rushing to back him at 20-1 for the Grand National though as he is a bit on the small side and could find it difficult to lay up on the first circuit.

Not that size is everything at Aintree as old Sunnyhillboy reminded us when winning the staying hurdle under AP McCoy. He was so unlucky to be pipped by Neptune Collonges a couple of years ago but was well beaten when departing at the last this time around.

There is a disappointing turnout for the supporting card at Cheltenham on Saturday with The New One having only Zarkandar as a realistic opponent in the International Hurdle and a miserable turnout of just four for the Relkeel Hurdle. I’d have to question the race planners on having Grade 2 two-mile and two and a half-mile hurdle races on the same card. You could easily merge the fields to make one decent race!

Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron were my choices for the December Gold Cup earlier in the week and I still cannot split them. I can’t help feeling that Easter Meteor is over-priced at 16-1 so am going to have a little each-way on him too.

There are more interesting betting races over at Doncaster and I’m going to have a flutter on Ted Spread at 12-1. He won the Chester Vase in 2010 before beating only one home in the Epsom Derby. Clearly he showed Paul Nicholls something at home as he was heavily backed for races like the County Hurdle and Imperial Cup but failed to deliver the goods.

He is now with Suzy Smith and this might be the time to catch him. It wouldn’t be the first time a horse has been transformed by a change of stables.

I also like the look of Bear’s Affair in the handicap chase for Nicky Henderson. The Lambourn maestro is sending a strong team up north including Triumph hope Royal Irish Hussar and I wouldn’t be surprised if he bagged a few winners. Bear’s Affair has come up against Le Bec and Wonderful Charm, arguably two of the best staying novices seen so far this season. He won at Kempton last time and is only up 4lbs for this.

*Ante-post Colour Squadron 6-1

*Ante-post Johns Spirit 13-2

(each-way) Easter Meteor at 16-1 BetBright

Ted Spread 12-1 Bet365

Bear’s Affair 4-1 William Hill