Tag: Chopin

Epsom Ante-Post Update

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The latest news on the Derby is that Magician is thought to be unlikely to take part in Saturday’s classic. If this is confirmed on Friday, it is unlikely to have too much of an impact on the market with bookmakers having been offering NR/No Bet this week.

The attention of the media seems to have been side-tracked by the saga of whether or not Frankie Dettori will be allowed to ride in the race following his drugs ban. Personally I would much rather concentrate on the horses. I have advised interest in the French and German raiders, Ocovango and Chopin at 9-1 and 12-1 respectively. I don’t see any value in backing the favourite at around even money given his stamina concerns and none of the other runners have really impressed me. However, both horses would appreciate a little bit of cut so I may be forced to do a rain dance later in the week!

The market for the Oaks is also unchanged after eleven horses were declared for Friday’s race. Secret Gesture (4-1) has been my selection here since she bolted up in the Lingfield Oaks trial. Moth and Liber Nauticus are challenging her in the betting but I just think she will have more gears than they do. I’ve also taken an each-way interest in The Lark (33-1), a half-sister to 2009 Oaks winner Sariska and open to plenty of improvement.

The bookmakers have now started pricing up the other races at the meeting and there are a couple in the handicaps that could be worth supporting. The first is Ralph Beckett’s progressive handicapper Niceofyoutotellme. I am not usually a fan of form from the polytrack but the style of his victory at Kempton suggests that there is a lot more to come from this son of Hernando. He was always travelling easily and picked up very well to cut down the field and win by a head. He is racing off only a 5lb higher mark on Friday and stands out in an otherwise moderate field.

My second selection is more speculative but has some sound reasoning behind it. You could hardly have a more difficult race to unravel than the Epsom Dash on Saturday but I think La Fortunata is overpriced at 20-1. The mare looked certain to win over course and distance last month only to be caught in the very last stride by Ajjaadd. Early speed is essential in this race above all others and she loves to bowl along in front. Her Epsom form reads 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 2nd. By my reckoning that makes her a fair each-way bet at 20-1.

Friday – Niceofyoutotellme 11-2 Paddy Power
Saturday – La Fortunata 20-1 Bet365

Horse Racing Preview 29th May

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The midweek racing is not the greatest, as you would expect with the Epsom Derby meeting coming up on Friday. Wednesday’s evening meeting at Beverley offers the best quality of the day with some speedy two-year-olds set to clash in the Hilary Needler Trophy.

With so many meetings these days I must admit that I don’t follow the two-year-old form until after Royal Ascot. York winner Beldale Memory is the only youngster to have impressed me so far so I will be giving the Beverley race a miss. My nap of the day is in the following event; a Conditions race over five furlongs. The one that I want to be on is Heeraat who finished fourth in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket last time.

The form of that race received a boost when runner-up Kingsgate Native won the Temple Stakes at Haydock. Heeraat was bang there with a chance a furlong out and this drop back to five furlongs should prove ideal. Hamza looks the one to give the favourite most to do but 7-4 with William Hill is worth taking.

The weather has taken a downturn after the weekend heatwave and rain has reached the Epsom area today and the going is now good, good to soft in places. There is plenty of time for the weather to go either way but I’ll be happy with anything other than firm ground for my ante-post selections Secret Gesture (4-1 Oaks) and Ocovango (9-1 Derby). With most bookmakers now offering NR/No bet on both races, now is a good time to pick off the last of the each-way value.

There has been a lot written about the stamina doubts of Dawn Approach and we will have to wait until much later in the week before we know whether Magician will take part. One horse that will definitely line up is the German raider Chopin, supplemented for £75,000 by his wealthy owners this week. I’ve studied his races and there is no doubting that he is a smart colt. His pedigree suggests that he will stay the trip and the rain will be good news for his supporters. I think that 12-1 represents a decent price against rivals that have plenty of questions to answer.

Chopin has been bought by Qatar Racing and they have given themselves a decent shout at the Oaks/Derby double by buying a 50% share in Secret Gesture. Trainer Ralph Beckett reports her to be in great nick going into the race and I’m optimistic. One filly that could still offer a little each-way value is The Lark. She was not at all suited by a slow pace at Newbury first time out and stayed on into third after being outpaced. Michael Bell expects her to improve a lot for that and I could see her running into a place.

Heeraat 7-4 William Hill
Chopin 12-1 Stan James
The Lark 33-1 Coral

Epsom Derby Ante-Post Update

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The jigsaw for the 2013 Epsom Derby is almost complete with Dawn Approach certain to go off a short-priced favourite after his emphatic 2000 Guineas victory. Aidan O’Brien has dominated the trials with Battle Of Marengo being touted as the best of his legion of entries. There are also challengers from France and Germany and a surprise Dante winner trained in Yorkshire.

Dawn Approach was around 7-4 after his Guineas win but is now a top-priced 5-4. The colt was supplemented for Epsom only weeks before his Newmarket victory and there are certainly doubts regarding his stamina. His style of racing has been put forward as the main reason for this newfound confidence in his ability to stay the Derby distance.

Last season he often needed to be driven along quite some way out before asserting his superiority. This has given the impression that he is a very good horse rather than a superstar. He has not cruised into his races or produced an electrifying burst of speed to kill of the opposition. He was under pressure well over a furlong out on Guineas day but kept finding more and had five lengths to spare at the line. The jury is still out on exactly what he beat the day with the runner-up having been sent off at odds of 150-1 and Toronado seemingly failing to give his true running.

In an ordinary year you would expect an impressive trial winner or proven stayer to have emerged as his chief rival. Battle Of Marengo was expected to fill that role but his Leopardstown win was inconclusive and he is no certainty to stay a mile and a half on his pedigree either. O’Brien won both Chester trials easily with Ruler of the World and Magician but neither has quite captured the public’s imagination. Magician now looks likely to run in the Irish Guineas this weekend and his Derby odds have drifted to over 60-1 on Betfair. Ruler of the World beat only 3 rivals in the Chester Vase and is difficult to assess whilst Mars didn’t do enough in the Guineas to encourage support at Epsom.

The Dante at York was expected to provide a serious challenger in Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope but he was forced to withdraw with a minor infection. The media circus has since been watching his every move but he would have to be something very special to win the Derby on his first start as a three-year-old. At long odds you might be tempted but at 7-1? In the event, the Dante was won by outsider Libertarian who was niggled along early but simply outstayed his rivals in the straight.

The French challenger Ocovango is unbeaten in three races and has won over eleven furlongs. His sire Monsun is an outstanding source of middle-distance runners including Manduro, Shirocco and Getaway. They tended to improve with age and there is still a slight stamina doubt on the dam’s side. However, he seems to settle well in his races and should be a straightforward ride. He’s a top price of 9-1 with William Hill.

Chopin has won his last two starts by an aggregate of 17 lengths in Germany. He is by high-class miler Santiago out of a Galileo mare so he has a chance of staying the trip. The bookmakers are being very respectful of his chances with quotes as low as 10-1. Like Ocovango, he has shown his best form on a softer surface and is difficult to weigh up. At this stage I just prefer Ocovango.

Ocovango 9-1 (each-way) William Hill