Cheltenham Day Two Preview

Day One of the Cheltenham festival did not exactly go to plan! Irving carried our hopes in the first but never looked like getting involved at any stage. It looked as though Glens Melody was going to save the day for us when striking for home in the Mares’ Hurdle but Quevega would not be denied a sixth consecutive victory in the race.

The low point of the was the tragic death of Our Conor following a heavy fall in the Champion Hurdle. I hope there is no repetition of this during the week as the ground dries out. For ground officially given as good to soft, it seems odd that a new course record was set by Vautour in the first. There was always a risk that the form book would be turned upside down after the horses have been running on soft ground for months.

We are already heavily involved in day two and Sire De Grugy’s performance in the Champion Chase could determine whether we are in profit this week. We snapped up 25-1 months ago about him and he is likely to off at around 5-2. I really don’t fancy anything else in the race so let’s hope he can keep his form.

We are also on at big odds in the opener with Faugheen at 10’s and Red Sherlock at 20’s. Either would give us a tidy profit. Space Ship didn’t get into the Fred Winter but we have our stake returned on the NR – no bet terms. That race looks impossible but we’ll re-invest in the Coral Cup.

Calculated Risk gives us a long shot at 40-1. The going has gone against Kaylif Aramis but I’m optimistic for the chances of Whisper. Nicky Henderson had three runners-up on the opening day and a third so his horses are obviously in flying form. A bit of each-way on Whisper with Nico de Boinville taking off 5lbs seems a wise move.

Modus takes on team Mullins in the Champion Bumper at 5.15. He should improve for the better ground and should also give us a good run.

Wednesday

Coral Cup – Whisper at 18-1 Bet365

Ante-post

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

RSA Chase – O’Faolains Boy 16-1

Coral Cup – Calculated Risk 40-1

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Fred Winter – Space Ship 16-1

Champion Bumper – Modus 10-1

Coral Cup Preview

The picture for the Coral Cup is as clear as mud at the moment with 88 entries. As only 28 can take part, it seems sensible to concentrate on the top half and that leaves several fancied runners out of the reckoning.

The two horses that I have had an eye on for this have problems. Firstly, Nicky Henderson’s Whisper has 11st 11lb. That is only 1lb more than carried by Medinas last year so it can be done but I generally don’t like backing top weights in handicaps. He is also up 6lbs for being beaten by Saphir Du Rheu in the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

The problem for Ascot winner Kaylif Aramis are is the going. He’s a far better horse in soft ground and almost certainly won’t run if it dries up. Un Temps Pour Tout has been touted for this race since romping home at Ascot but I’d have thought he’d have more chance in a novice race. I’d be looking at the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett but his trainer is already strongly represented in both.

I won’t have Dunguib at any price with his weight (11st 12lb) while most of the Paul Nicholls entries are well exposed. The possible exception is Lac Fontana who was taken out of the Imperial Cup at Sandown in favour of a festival run. Bayan is yet to prove that he stays this trip and still holds an entry in the County Hurdle.

Meister Eckhart was second in this race last year when beaten by stable companion Medinas and then finished third at Aintree after looking certain to win. His chasing career was put on hold after a disastrous run at Wincanton and he battled on to finish second to Kayf Moss at Fontwell. The form of the Fontwell race is suspect with Saphir Du Rheu running poorly and there may be better handicapped horses.

I’m going to take a chance on 40-1 shot Calculated Risk here after a win at Sedgefield. That may not sound like Cheltenham form but he was a fair performer on the flat and had acquitted himself well at Sandown on his previous start. He was beaten only four and a quarter lengths by Deep Trouble when finishing sixth after staying on promisingly in the Greatwood Hurdle.

John Quinn has entered him in three races at the meeting so I’m not sure if this will be his first choice. If it is, 40-1 is a good price and Cheltenham is NR – no bet on all races.

Calculated Risk at 40-1 Bet Victor, Coral

Non-runner – No bet

16-1 Whisper for Coral Cup

Surprisingly, all three national hunt meetings went ahead on Saturday despite the heavy rain of recent days. With inspections called at Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby, I had virtually given it up as a lost cause and focussed on the all-weather at Lingfield.

Admittedly, Sandown had been forced to abandon their hurdle races in favour of an all-chase card, but it was turf racing nonetheless. Nicky Henderson elected to run Oscar Whisky with good prize money on offer and little in the way of opposition. Sent off at 1-6, I was beginning to wonder if he may be pulled up at one point. Barry Geraghty clearly wasn’t that happy on the horse but was still close enough if his two rivals wilted in front of him.

That is pretty much what happened but I wonder what effect that race will have on his Cheltenham plans? Both trainer and jockey felt it was simply the going and the fact that Oscar Whisky is a stuff horse. With rain still lashing down in many parts, there were precious few genuine Cheltenham prospects on show but I believe the Welsh Champion Hurdle is a different matter altogether.

Since backing Saphir Du Rheu to defy a 15lbs rise in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton, I’ve become a fan of the grey. I was quite confident that he could defy another 13lb hike at Ffos Las and he duly obliged, but only just. The reason was a terrier-like performance from Henderson’s Whisper who had finished nearly ten lengths adrift of Saphir Du Rheu at Sandown.

Whisper had gone on to win easily since and the net result was that he was 16lbs better off with the Nicholls’ horse. Harry Derham, who must be just about the best 5lb claimer about, elected to make the running and Andrew Tinkler followed his every move. The two horses drew nearly 20 lengths clear of the third horse on the run to the line, Saphir Du Rheu clinging on by a short head.

The bookmakers have put up Saphir Du Rheu as favourite for the Coral Cup but I don’t think he will run. Nicholls is itching to put him over a fence and is already talking Gold Cups. I just don’t see him running the horse with the best part of 12 stone on his back in a 30-runner field. As far as I know, there are no such provisos about Whisper and he looks worth a bet at 16-1.

Whisper (Coral Cup) at 16-1 Paddy Power