My two ante-post wagers on the Welsh National are looking good. Merry King (advised at 14-1) and Well Refreshed (advised at 12-1) are both now in single figures and have sneaked in with a feather weight. Tidal Bay’s presence has compressed the weights leaving almost half of the field out of the handicap
Paul Nicholls, fresh from his King George triumph with Silviniaco Conti, has decided to let Tidal Bay take his chance at Chepstow under the welter burden of 11st 12lb. The last horse to successfully carry that weight was Carvill’s Hill back in 1991.
Tidal Bay won the Lexus Chase a year ago but niggling injuries prevented him from running at Cheltenham or Aintree. He won on his return to action over hurdles at Wetherby and was subsequently well beaten in the Betfair Chase.
The closest to him in the handicap is Teaforthree, runner-up in this race 12 months ago and third in the Grand National. He is set to receive just over a stone from the top weight including the 5lb claim of jockey Patrick Corbett.
Trainer Rebecca Curtis has not been able to get a prep run into him this year but has him as fit as he can be first time out and is hoping for a good run. Two horses that have major claims on form are Well Refreshed and Merry King.
Both horses have been laid out for this race and have sneaked in with just a little over 10 stone. Well Refreshed loves the mud as he illustrated when winning the Haydock National Trial last season. He showed his well-being with a fine third at Sandown recently despite a couple of jumping errors.
Merry King was fifth in the Hennessy Gold Cup but is another that seems certain to be suited by this stamina test. He represents Trainer Jonjo O’Neill who has won this race with Mini Sensation and Synchronised.
Jim Dreaper won the race with Notre Pere in 2008 and relies on six-year-old Goonyella this year. Travel plans had to be changed due to the winter storms and did not arrive until midnight on Boxing Day. That hardly seems like the ideal build-up to such an exhausting test for a young horse.
Hennessy fourth Highland Lodge is also among the leading fancies in a 20-strong line-up for the race due off at 2.35 and screened live on Channel 4.
Well Refreshed 12-1
Merry King 14-1
