Tag: Countrywide Flame

Chester Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The 2000 Guineas victory of Sheikh Mohammed’s Dawn Approach has certainly raised some interesting questions and the colt is now 7-4 favourite for the Derby. The major concern for his supporters is whether he will stay the extra half-mile and the decision to go to Epsom has been taken more on his style of racing than his pedigree. I remember Jim Bolger saying he was going to be a Guineas horse after he won the Coventry last season but no thought had been given to his prospects of staying a mile and a half. About three weeks prior to the Guineas the decision was taken to supplement him for Epsom and that now looks to have been a wise move.

One another point worth making is that he beat a 150-1 outsider at Newmarket and it appears we may have another season with one good horse and a lot of moderate ones. Camelot was head and shoulders above his contemporaries last season but he was bred for the Derby. It will be fascinating to see what the breeding pundits come up with in the build up to the Derby but I don’t think that I will be taking 7-4. I will be happy to see what emerges from the trials in the hope of grabbing some decent each-way value against Dawn Approach.

It remains to be seen whether there is a Derby colt on show at Chester this week but the opening day revolves around the Chester Cup. I must confess to have become something of a fan of Countrywide Flame since he won the Triumph Hurdle a couple of years ago. He showed that was no fluke when he ran a fine race behind Grumeti at Aintree and I have since tipped him ante-post for the Cesarewitch (second at 10-1) and the Champion Hurdle (third at 33-1). The old expression about following them over cliffs springs to mind but I cannot help but fancy him tomorrow.

His weight looks just about perfect, he has a good draw, has won over the course and acts on any going. The only question mark is whether or not his run in the Champion Hurdle took the edge off him. He did run disappointingly at Aintree last time and he is almost certainly due a rest after his fine hurdles campaign. I cannot get too excited about the 7-2 on offer but there may be some 4’s or better on the day.

Ile De Roi and Simenon appear to have too much weight whereas Tominator was disappointing over hurdles. He is closely matched with Countrywide Flame on their meeting in the Cesarewitch and would be an appropriate winner in the week that saw the passing of his legendary former trainer Reg Hollinshead. However, he was beaten a distance in this race 12 months ago and is not guaranteed to reproduce his Newmarket form. One horse that is capable of showing improved form is Theology, now in the care of Steve Gollings.

Theology was useful on the flat for Jeremy Noseda but his form tailed off and he was eventually sent to Gollings to go hurdling. He didn’t take to the jumping game and was not knocked about at Kempton on his return to the flat. He may have been laid out for this race and could run a big race at a decent price.

Countrywide Flame 7-2 Ladbrokes
Theology (each-way) 18-1 Paddy Power

Grand National Meeting Day 1 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

In theory, picking winners at Aintree is a lot easier than picking winners at Cheltenham. The fields tend to be smaller and the Cheltenham festival form ought to stand up. Of course it is not always that simple but it is a reasonable place to start.

The opening race of the meeting Liverpool’s version of the Triumph Hurdle. There is no Our Conor on show here but disappointing favourite Rolling Star bids to redeem his reputation. Nicky Henderson’s French import was sent off 5-2 favourite for the Triumph but never really looked like justifying the plunge. Even allowing for the exceptional winner, it was surprising that he could do no better than sixth place. On his previous outing he had beaten the Paul Nicholls-trained Irish Saint by two and a quarter lengths and that horse has been saved for this meeting. Nicholls had been considering going for a 2 ½ mile novice event with him and I just wonder whether he will have enough pace for Aintree’s flat two miles. although there is a question mark about whether he will be fast enough over 2 miles here. Flaxen Flare won the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle decisively but had been well beaten on his two previous starts.

Silviniaco Conti looks like nap material in the Betfred Bowl (2.30). He looked certain to be involved in the finish of the Gold Cup before he fell at the third last and he also has winning form at Aintree. Nicholls had been quite bullish about his prospects before the race and had always emphasised that he would come on a great deal for his victory at Newbury. Had he stood up, I’m sure he would have finished ahead of The Giant Bolster and Cape Tribulation at the festival. Mouse Morris wanted to run First Lieutenant in the Gold Cup and the horse was left flat footed by Cue Card in the Ryanair. He may again have to settle for second place.

The Aintree Hurdle (3.05) looks like being a classic but I’m staying loyal to Champion Hurdle form with Countrywide Flame. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner ran a fine third at the festival and holds Zarkandar on that form. Nicholls is applying blinkers to the latter whilst Grandouet is difficult to weigh up after an early fall in the Champion. I am surprised that The New One is the ante-post favourite and am yet to be convinced that he is a Champion hurdler. I still think that anything over 4-1 is a steal for Countrywide Flame.

I don’t usually bet on Hunter Chase races and I’ll be giving The Foxhunters Chase (3.40) a swerve. Nicky Henderson has chances in the last three races with Kid Cassidy (4.15), Captain Conan (4.50) and Ericht (5.25). Kid Cassidy finished second to Alderwood in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham but has to carry top weight here. I haven’t previously been a fan of Captain Conan but I thought he ran a good race behind Benefficient whilst Ericht finished fifth in a huge field in the Coral Hurdle. It could be worth putting them together with Rolling Star in the hope that the Henderson team has a field day. Stranger things have happened!

Silviniaco Conti (Nap) Even money with Totesport
Countrywide Flame (n.b.) 9-2 with Paddy Power

Henderson Super Yankee:
Rolling Star 5-2 with Bet Victor
Kid Cassidy 13-2 with Totesport
Captain Conan 15-8 with William Hill
Ericht 14-1 with Bet365

Grand National Week 2013 – A Few Early Pointers

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Having spent much of the last week shovelling snow just north of the border, it is hard to believe that they are actually watering the course at Aintree ahead of this week’s Grand National meeting! The entire jumping season to date seems to have been run on soft or heavy ground and it is slightly worrying that we could even have good ground by Thursday. That can sometimes turn the form on its head but you cannot ignore Cheltenham form at this meeting.

The Grand National is obviously the highlight of the week but there is a cracking supporting cast. The Aintree Hurdle is shaping up to be an exceptional race. Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars have battled out the finish for the past two seasons but they are up against stiff opposition this week. Countrywide Flame finished third in the Champion Hurdle with Zarkandar fourth and Grandouet falling when still going well under Barry Geraghty. The final ingredient is supplied by impressive Neptune Novices’ Hurdle winner The New One. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is convinced that his horse will be a leading Champion Hurdle contender next year and he has been made favourite to win here.

I have been a fan of Countrywide Flame for some time and I thought he put in a great effort behind Hurricane Fly last time. As much as I respect the opposition, I think odds of around 5-1 are an insult to John Quinn’s gelding and I fancy him to gain a well deserved success.

Sprinter Sacre is due to run over 2 1/2 miles in the Melling Chase and is up against two smart performers in Cue Card and Flemenstar. I don’t have any doubts about Sprinter Sacre proving equally effective over this distance but his odds reflect his superiority over his rivals. Unless the bookies offer some generous odds on winning distances later in the week, I think this will be a race to watch rather than bet on.

One of the banker bets of the meeting must surely be Silviniaco Conti after his desperately unlucky fall in the Gold Cup. Ruby Walsh found the seven-year-old travelling almost too well throughout the race and he must surely have given Bobs Worth something to think about if he had stood up. He flew around the Mildmay Course last season and The Betfred Bowl looks his for the taking.

Big priced winners of The Lincoln and The Irish National are timely reminders of what we could be up against when betting on the big race on Saturday. On His Own looks likely to go off favourite having won over hurdles on his only start since falling last year. Having watched the re-run of last year’s race, there is no denying that he appeared to be going as well as anything when he crashed out at Bechers second time around. My only slight worry was that he seemed to get some way behind early on. He probably wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much but is a worthy favourite and I’m taking him to give the punters something to cheer about.

I have plenty of respect for Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu (2nd, 3rd and 4th) but they all seem to be high enough in the weights. I was most impressed with Imperial Commander’s comeback run in the Argento Chase and it must have been incredibly frustrating for connections to miss out on his run in the Gold Cup. He adds a touch of class to the race whilst Always Waining looks overpriced at 40-1 for a horse that runs a stone better at Liverpool than anywhere else. Trainer Peter Bowen is keeping an eye on the weather and could yet send him for the Topham but most bookmakers are now offering NR/no bet on the National.

Countrywide Flame 5-1 with Paddy Power
Silviniaco Conti Evens with Paddy Power
On His Own 7-1 with Bet365
Always Waining 40-1 with Paddy Power