Tag: cox plate betting

Weather Set To Turn 2016 Cox Plate Upside Down

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

There’s an old adage in Melbourne relating to the city’s infamous changeable weather: “If you don’t like it, just wait five minutes”. Unfortunately, that’s the case on Cox Plate Eve as a bright and mild Thursday gives way to strong winds and heavy rain (up to 25 millimetres), progressing to hail by Saturday! It’s a nightmare scenario for the Moonee Valley Racing Club with 18 races scheduled on their track in a 24-hour period and for the Cox Plate betting. The track started Friday rated a good (3) but the heavens are expected to open in the early afternoon leading to likely downgrades as the day progresses. The rail will start tonight’s Manikato Stakes meeting in the true position.

Watch and learn

The changeable conditions are also not ideal for punters, but it’s not all doom and gloom. The rail will be moved out for the Cox Plate card (probably three metres) leaving a fresh alley along the fence. In the second half of both meetings, jockeys will be looking for the best racing surface – no matter how wide that may be. So the track will probably favour on-pace runners early, with the backmarkers steadily improving their strike rate as the races tick by. Similarly, inside barrier draws from the chute starts of the 1200m (the Manikato Stakes) and 2040m (Cox Plate) are not going to provide the advantage riders would normally expect.

Contender on the drift

Such has been the anticipation of the head-to-head showdown between Winx and Hartnell in the AUD $3,000,000 William Hill Cox Plate that the race could be run down Swanston Street and people would still pack the route. The money has flowed to Winx over the past 24 hours, with her price into $1.80 from $1.95 with William Hill. Hartnell has been an alarming drifter from $3.00 to $3.60. To the naked eye, punters clearly thought the lead Godolphin contender could threaten the superstar mare’s 12-race winning streak. After all, he smashed a Turnbull field in which subsequent Caulfield Cup Jameka finished a distant runner-up. Does that put him on equal footing with Winx?

Winx, and say no more

In short, no. Taking a close look at the respective benchmark ratings, Hartnell’s numbers have been basically static over the past two seasons. He’s a very good horse, but his form hasn’t shown any marked improvement this prep. Neither has Winx, but her rating in the 2015 Cox Plate was simply staggering. She hasn’t been seriously tested this campaign, but still managed to defeat a dual G1 winner Black Hart Bart in the Caulfield Stakes without being shifted out of third gear. The weather and state of the track create fresh x-factors but on paper, Winx looks a clear two lengths better than Hartnell (and the rest) so $1.80 is worth serious consideration.

Looking outside the obvious

With such extreme conditions now more than likely, an upset has to be considered. The French runner Vadamos may have been a contender, but his inside draw is far from ideal and he’ll put on the speed with Hartnell and Black Heart Bart, which will set them up to be swamped. The three-year-old filly Yankee Rose carries just 47.5kg but she’s untried on a genuine wet surface and still races somewhat greenly. The contender now coming into play is Kris Lee’s six-year-old mare Lucia Valentina. She won the Sydney equivalent of the Cox Plate (the Queens Elizabeth Stakes) in the autumn, loves the wet and has been drawn out of trouble in nine of 10.

Irish duck eyes Gold Cup

The other highlight of the day is the AUD $300,000 Group 2 Antler Luggage Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2500m. The relevance of this race to the Melbourne Cup had waned in recent years until a then-virtually unknown gelding Prince Of Penzance emerged victorious in 2014, a year before his historic win in the Melbourne Cup. The $4.20 for Gallante with William Hill looks an absolute gift. The Irish-bred six-year-old gelding for Team Williams cruised home in the Sydney Cup (3200m) in the autumn and finished behind only Jameka in the G3 Naturalism (2000m) a month ago at Caulfield. And he’s a perfect two for two on heavy going!

Dream Clash Highlights Stellar Cox Plate Weekend

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

All three of Melbourne’s metropolitan racing clubs are vastly different but the quirkiest of the lot is the one tucked away in the memorably named north-western suburb of Moonee Ponds. Despite several threats to its existence over the years (mostly due to the vast value of its land), the Moonee Valley Racing Club remains a vibrant part of the nation’s thoroughbred landscape for two major reasons – its annual summer night racing program, and its most famous race, the W.S. Cox Plate. For the purists, this is the most anticipated event of Melbourne’s spring carnival – 2040 metres around the tricky Valley layout at weight-for-age conditions. And after a few lean years in terms of quality, the 2016 edition is shaping up as one of the greatest ever.

Tight and tricky

But to join the likes of Kingston Town, Bonecrusher, Better Loosen Up, Might And Power, Sunline, Northerly and So You Think, Cox Plate contenders must first conquer one of the most idiosyncratic racecourses on the planet. From above, it looks pretty standard with four turns but there are almost no straight runs so runners race on an almost-continuous curve until they reach a home straight that comprises just 173 metres. However, there’s a stack on camber on the turns, so horses that can maintain a high cruising speed perform well here. It’s like a NASCAR super speedway for thoroughbreds. On-pace runners are generally favoured, but a horse with a short, sharp sprint can win from six- or seven-wide!

“That’s the way it’s gonna be, little darling”

The Valley’s eccentric features don’t end there. The main grandstand is very close to the track, giving the venue a stadium feel similar to that of Happy Valley in Hong Kong. The meeting is run over two days, with the AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Manikato Stakes highlighting Friday night’s card ahead of the Cox Plate meeting on Saturday. That’s 18 races in a 24-hour period. Another unique tradition that has become a fixture prior to the Cox Plate is a stirring rendition of The Horses by former Aussie 70s heartthrob Daryl Braithwaite. It’s quite an experience to hear 25,000 well-refreshed racegoers screaming along Karaoke-style, but the sing-a-long has also spooked more than a few Cox Plate runners through the years.

Galloping grey looks special

Named in honour of the superstar sprinter which won this race (then known as the Freeway Stakes) twice and the William Reid Stakes on an unprecedented five successive occasions (1979-1983), the 2016 edition of the Manikato Stakes has attracted a field of 11, including triple winner Buffering, the world’s highest rated sprinter Chautauqua (a $2.20 favourite with William Hill) and 2015 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist (a clear second pick at $6.00). An inside draw is valuable from the 1200m start at the Valley, and the Hawkes team came up trumps with barrier 1 for their eye-catching grey/bay 6yo gelding. The 1000m of the Moir was a bit sharp for him first-up, but seven of his 12 wins have come at this distance, and he’s going to be mighty hard to toss.

Winx v Hartnell, or can another surprise?

Speaking of gun runs, 2015 Cox Plate winner Winx has landed in barrier 3 for the $3,000,000 William Hill Cox Plate. She should find a terrific spot in transit with French contender Vadamos and lightweight hope Yankee Rose drawn on her inside. Punters have become accustomed to Winx starting deep in the red, but the 5yo mare is a surprisingly generous $1.95 with William Hill to secure her 13th successive win. That’s due to the presence of Hartnell ($3.00), with the Godolphin gelding drawing barrier 7 of 10 for the WFA championship of Australasia. He smashed the field in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington two weeks ago, defeating Jameka by 3.25 lengths. That same mare cruised to victory by a similar margin in last week’s Caulfield Cup!