The sad news that Atlantic Jewel has suffered a career-ending injury ahead of Saturday’s Cox Plate may have detracted slightly from the race but it is still a high class event. The bookies have reacted by bracketing leading Melbourne Cup hopes Fiorente and Puissance de Lune with Its A Dundeel at 7-2 and the value could lie with the latter.
I have the greatest respect for both Cup horses but this race is over six furlongs shorter and that must surely give It’s A Dundeel a big advantage. He narrowly defeated Atlantic Jewel on his most recent outing before a minor injury interrupted his campaign but recent track work has confirmed his well-being.
The snag is that he has drawn stall 12 but Fiorente is still outside him in 14 and Puissance de Lune will be produced late from stall 7. Providing there isn’t a strong pace it should not be too difficult to overcome the wide draw and swamp his rivals for speed in the closing stages.
European observers are baffled by the build-up of the Cup horses with the likes of Fiorente racing at seven furlongs and a mile in preparation for a two-mile race. Last season Green Moon was strongly fancied for the Cox Plate but ran poorly only to bounce back and lift the Melbourne Cup next time out.
Fiorente ran a super race in the Turnbull Stakes last time out and is currently favourite for Flemington. Presumably he will be produced with a long run up the straight again here and it will then be all systems go for the Cup. I have to side with proven form over the distance and 7-2 looks a decent bet for It’s a Dundeel.
There is no better rider in these races than Craig Williams and Andrew Balding has snapped him to partner his globetrotting Side Glance. The six-year-old gelding has been fourth in the World Cup and third in the Arlington Million this year so is certainly earning his keep. I’m not too sure whether the one stall will help as he invariably runs just behind the pace and Williams will have to be careful not to be swamped by horses on his outside if taking him back early on.
Mull Of Killough has improved out of all recognition over the past couple of seasons but ran disappointingly at Arlington park. I think he just ran too freely there and found himself in front with four furlongs to travel. If we put a line through that run, he could run better than his odds suggest but this looks a tough assignment.
It’s a Dundeel 7-2 (William Hill)
