Tag: Craig Williams

Protectionist returns on Blue Diamond Stakes day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Melbourne Autumn Carnival includes three top level feature races at Caulfield on Saturday and the reappearance of Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist.

The Peter Young Stakes sees the return of last season’s Flemington hero as he makes his first start for Kris Lees. He stormed to a four-length success in November under Ryan Moore when trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler and this race is well short of his best trip.

Fiorente managed to win this race before going on to take the Group 1 Australian Cup and that is the route sketched out for Protectionist. Lees has also drawn up a Plan B if the five-year-old proves ineffective at middle-distances with the $1millon Sydney Cup in April as an alternative target. The horse most likely to beat him for speed on Saturday is Paul Beshara’s Happy Trails, three times a Group 1 winner at or around Saturday’s distance.

He won the Mackinnon Stakes and will be sharper for his run earlier this month when staying on into sixth in the CF Orr Stakes.  He has reportedly been working brilliantly since and carries maximum stable confidence this weekend.

Atmospherical could provide Craig Williams with a victory in the Oakleigh Plate after being drawn in barrier 4. The well-fancied Vain Queen and Earthquake are feared most and should be competitive from barriers ten and eleven respectively. Earthquake is unbeaten in three starts at Caulfield and usually runs well fresh.

Atmospherical is a daughter of Northern Meteor and was last seen finishing third to Chautauqua in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes. That was her first at this distance in five starts and she can reverse the form with runner-up Flamerge who has a nightmare draw in barrier 17.

Fontiton is all the rage for the $1million Blue Diamond Stakes after being drawn in barrier one. Robert Smerdon’s filly will be trying to become the fourth consecutive filly to win this race on Saturday and will be difficult to peg back.

The one that could give her a run for her money is Pride Of Dubai, supplemented at the cost of $55,000 after finishing second in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Colts & Geldings Prelude. He was beaten by Of The Brave (drawn 9) with Sampeah in behind in third place. The son of Street Cry looks to have every chance from barrier five.

Caulfield Saturday

Happy Trails (race 6) @6.0 Bet365

Atmospherical (race 7) @10.0 Bet365*

Pride Of Dubai (race 8) @5.50 Sportsbet

*Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Coolmore Stud Stakes Preview

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The Group 1 action at Flemington on Saturday begins with the Coolmore Stud Stakes in which Rich Enuff bids to regain the winning thread after his narrow defeat in the Caulfield Guineas.

Ken Key’s son of Written Tycoon was just run down in the closing stages by Shooting To Win after making most of the running over 1600m. The colt won his first three races in great style this spring including the Group 2 Danehill Stakes over 1200m. He was stepped up to 1400m next time in the Guineas Prelude and recorded another impressive victory but there were still a few concerns about the extended trip at Caulfield.

He is a naturally free-running colt and Michael Rodd had trouble settling him in the Guineas. He used up a lot of energy early in the race and did not quite last home. Rich Enuff has drawn barrier 10 but that is not a problem on the straight course. Barriers 8 and 9 have been the most successful in this race in the past and the only slight concern is whether the Guineas has left its mark on Rich Enuff. There has been no sign of it in his work which has been described as brilliant by connections. His form is outstanding and he is the one to beat here.

Gerald Ryan’s Rubick won the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes last time out and will start from barrier one under Kerrin McEvoy. John O’Shea’s Godolphin filly Earthquake is in the next barrier with James McDonald in the saddle. She is one of three fillies in the race and is yet to finish out of the money in eight starts. The famous blue colours will also be carried by Ghibellines.

Chris Waller’s Brazen Beau could be a danger having finished runner-up in the Group 1 J.J. Atkins Stakes. He then finished fifth in the Danehill so will have to improve to reverse the form with Rich Enuff. Earthquake is joined by Eloping and Bring Me The Maid as the fairer sex attempt to upset the boys in the sprinting division.

Eloping was third in the Group 2 McEwen Stakes behind Angelic Light and Lankan Rupee. She has since won the Group 3 Champagne Stakes and Listed Blue Sapphire Stakes and starts from barrier 12 under Stephen Baster. The dark horse of the race could be Joseph Pride’s Kuro who has won his last four races in Sydney. These included the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes but this is a step up in class.

Craig Williams rides Scissor Kick, trained by Paul Messara. He is tough and consistent and finished runner-up in the Group 1 Golden Rose over 1400m but is equally effective over this trip. He could be the each-way value but Rich Enuff looks the one to be on.

Rich Enuff @3.20 Ladbrokes

Mackinnon Stakes Preview

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There are four Group 1 races on Victoria Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday including the $1million Mackinnon Stakes.

A year ago Andrew Balding’s Side Glance claimed the prize with a gutsy run, holding off Dear Demi by three-quarters of a length. The seven-year-old is rapidly becoming as well-known in Australia as he is in the UK after finishing third in the Caulfield Stakes and fourth in last week’s Cox Plate.

His run in the Cox Plate was typical in that he kept battling on when looking certain to be swamped by those finishing in behind. At the line he was barely half a length behind Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide on the wide outside. Included in a group of eight that crossed the line within a length were Foreteller, Happy Trails and Criterion.

You could make a case for each of them but the draw has favoured Side Glance (barrier 7) while Foreteller (10) and Happy Trails (13) must come from his outside. Criterion finished second in the Caulfield Stakes but I’m not sure that barrier one will suit him. He seems to hit a flat spot in his races before running on again and he may find himself trapped on the inner. Foreteller kept responding to pressure and has to be a contender if he can get a good position from the starting gate.

He’s Your Man is bidding for a hat-trick after winning the  Kingston Town Stakes and the Epsom Handicap. The six-year-old will break from barrier five and is an obvious threat while Caulfield Cup runner-up Rising Romance will also be popular with punters.

Jamie Spencer is at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup this weekend so the ride on Side Glance goes to Craig Williams. He won the Mackinnon Stakes on Alcopop in 2012 and there is no better judge of pace around Flemington.

I would have fancied Roger Varian’s Farraaj to run a big race with a low draw but he is on the wide outside in barrier 15. Adelaide managed to overcome a similar handicap last week but Farraaj is much more of a free-running type and won’t be ideally suited by dropping in behind.

Mick Channon did well with Amralah to win nice races at Newbury and Haydock and he now makes his Australian debut for Robert Hickmott. His Haydock win over Hillstar reads well after the runner-up won the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine. The Melbourne Cup was his intended target but he is yet to prove that he stays that distance.

Foreteller @11.0 Sportsbet

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

*Side Glance was withdrawn through injury

Caulfield Guineas Preview

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It is Guineas weekend at Caulfield and the big race is preceded by the Thousand Guineas on Saturday.

The Melbourne Racing Club’s decision to move the Group 1 Thousand Guineas to the Saturday is looking questionable after only eleven runners were declared. The option for runners from the Flight Stakes to run here has been virtually removed with only a week between races.

The favourite here is Go Indy Go, winner of last season’s Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick. Lumosty won her maiden race by nine lengths and has been all the rage this week with Craig Williams on board. Bring Me The Maid looks well drawn in barrier four and Peter Moody is hoping for an improved display in first-time blinkers after the filly flopped in the Guineas Prelude.

The winner that day was Afleet Esprit who could provide Damien Oliver with a sixth Thousand Guineas victory. David Hayes and Tom Dabernig’s star filly has only been out of the frame once in six starts and looks better value than the favourite.

Rich Enuff is the one horse that punters want to know in the Caulfield Guineas and his price has contracted to around 5-4 despite a wide draw. The son of Written Tycoon has not been prevented from winning in his last two starts by a similar disadvantage and has plenty of speed from the gate.

Gai Waterhouse has been quite bullish about the prospects of Almalad this week but she must have been disheartened to learn of his draw on the wide outside in stall 13. Almalad has chalked up victories in the J.J. Atkins Stakes at Eagle Farm and the Bill Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley. Waterhouse is confident that he will prove good enough to take his chance in the Cox Plate but he will need to run a big race on Saturday to win from his draw.

Looks Like The Cat has finished runner-up to Rich Enuff on his last two starts and should run his usual game race but the one I think that could cause an upset is Shooting To Win. He was very impressive when beating Scissor Kick by three lengths in the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes last time out. Barrier eight puts him on the inside of the fancied horses and he should be able to stay clear of trouble.

Shooting To Win (Caulfield Guineas) @7.50 Sportsbet

Afleet Esprit (Thousand Guineas) @6.0 Sportsbet

Shergar Cup 2014 Preview

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The Shergar Cup has survived a surprisingly long time. It was first contested in 1999 at Goodwood and move to Ascot the following year where it has remained. Whilst the idea of attracting jockeys from around the world may have had a novelty appeal back then, it is hardly a factor these days. That being said, it does fill a bit of a void in the racing calendar between Goodwood and York.

I’ve studied the form of the six races and come up with some selections that will hopefully bring us a return. On first glance, Olivier Peslier and Frankie Dettori seem to have benefitted most from the draw and should be among the winners. That should mean back-to-back victories for Europe if you’re contemplating betting on that particular market.

The opening “Dash” looks particularly tricky with Goldream the logical form choice. If the weather is the same down south as it is up here in Scotland, there should be some ease by tomorrow and that could change the complexion of the race. Peslier’s mount, Move In Time, handles softer ground and is my tentative selection.

The Frenchman is aboard Hassle in the Stayers race at 1.30 and this one ran well, although no match for Maid In Rio last time. He doesn’t find a lot off the bridle so could still be handicapped to go well and any overnight rain won’t bother him.

Dettori can claim the next aboard Grandorio who ran well at York, just going down in a three-way photo. He raced wide of his rivals and can be considered a little unlucky. Communicator should also run well for Europe but may find this trip on the sharp side.

Magic City ran a stormer in the Betfred Mile at Goodwood and would have won in another few strides. He is something of a Goodwood specialist but there seems no reason why he cannot perform well here and he is just preferred to Dark Emerald.

Dettori will fancy his chances on top weight Wrangler in the next. He was not quite as impressive as I’d expected at Haydock last time and he needs the rain to arrive. Trip To Paris won well here last time and I shall take a chance on his South African pilot doing the steering. The last race is Europe’s weakest link and I think this could go to the ROTW skipper Craig Williams aboard Remember. It’s a close call between that one and Golden Steps on Newmarket form.

Tips

Move In Time 12.55 at 11-2 Bet365

Hassle 1.30 at 5-1 Bet365

Grandorio 2.05 at 6-1 Coral

Magic City 2.40 at 4-1 Coral

Trip To Paris 3.15 at 6-1 Stan James

Remember 3.50 at 7-1 Ladbrokes

Specials

Europe to win @2-1 Betfair

Top jockey Olivier Peslier @6-1 BetVictor