Tag: cricket odds

Australia Face Selection Headaches Ahead of Sydney Test

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Most of the talk in the lead up to the final cricket test between Australia and Pakistan has been around the composition of the two sides. Firstly, comes the retirement question of Misbah-ul-Haq. Secondly, is the characteristics of the Sydney pitch and how conducive to spin it will be, and consequently how that alters the thinking of the Australian selectors.

The questions are unanswered for now, but once known will form the nucleus of the key talking points about the dead rubber. We’ve highlighted some of the other key talking points below:

The Series So Far

For all the decent cricket Pakistan has played in the series thus far, they still find themselves down 2-0. After the heartbreak of Brisbane – falling just short of a record fourth innings chase – and the huge amount of time lost to bad weather in Melbourne, the touring side gave everybody reason to believe the series would still be alive. However, a final day capitulation for the ages – at the hands of Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon – gave Australia their second win of series from as many matches.

Frustratingly, for Pakistan fans and for the cricket neutrals, the series has been competitive, with Pakistan missing a little bit of quality in the key moments (and relying on too many individuals).

The Teams

Australia (likely):

1 David Warner, 2 Matt Renshaw, 3 Usman Khawaja, 4 Steve Smith (capt), 5 Peter Handscomb, 6 Hilton Cartwright, 7 Matthew Wade, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Josh Hazlewood, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Steve O’Keefe

Debutant Hilton Cartwright is expected to replace Nic Maddinson to better balance the side and allow a second spinner to play. Whether that is O’Keefe (the incumbent) or Ashton Agar remains to be seen. Agar may be viewed as more of a batting allrounder and would allow for the three quicks to stay in the side, but that results in Matthew Wade batting quite high for someone who is short of runs.

Either way, it will be two spinners and a new number 6.

Pakistan (likely)

Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), Azhar Ali, Sami Aslam, Younis Khan, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), Yasir Shah, Mohammad Amir, Wahab Riaz, Rahat Ali.

The big talking point during the week was Misbah’s retirement. Whether he will continue and play in Sydney is still unknown at the time of writing. If he does call it a day, it will close the curtains on a tremendous career. He’ll leave the game as the most successful test captain in Pakistan’s history and will richly deserve the praise he receives.

The Key Players

Australia

Garry the GOAT (Nathan Lyon), is quickly becoming a cult favourite amongst the cricket-following public of Australia. The offspinner is lapping up the social media attention, although presumably, he’d like to be garnering the attention for world class bowling performances, not his nicknames. The Sydney test gives him such an opportunity. The SCG will turn, but will the turn be too slow for Lyon to be effective. If not he’s a key figure in the game.

Pakistan

Mohammed Amir has been good on tour but not great. Wickets are never easy to come by in Australia as has proven this time around for Amir too. He’s bowled nice spells, he’s beaten the bat countless time and has kept the scoring rate in check. However, Pakistan needs wickets from him and lots of them if they can sneak a win in the already lost series.

The Match Odds*

Australia – $1.42

Pakistan – $7.10

Draw – $5.90

*All odds courtesy of Sportsbet

The Prediction

Neither are likely to occur, but the money on a Pakistan win or a draw are very attractive. With the Sydney test dominated by wet weather last year, the draw could be the better of the two. Having said that, in the slow turner of Sydney, Yasir Shah could be a factor. The gambler says take a punt, the cricket pundit says Australia to win comfortably.

The Best Bets

Steve Smith to top score for the Aussies at $3.25 is hard to ignore. This bet isn’t like the Kane Williamson of NZ or the Joe Root of England. Place it every time and it should come good more often than not.

Alternatively, if you like fairytales (and better returns) bank on Misbah going out in style (if he doesn’t retire before the game) and top scoring. That’s paying $6.

Bangladesh Seek Improved Showing; NZ a Series Win

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The New Zealand, Bangladesh ODI series moves to Nelson, to a pitch expected to be slower and lower than the Christchurch opener, and thus suit the slow bowling nous of the Bangladesh side. The slower pitch could also counteract the New Zealand short bowling tactic that was employed extensively in game one but made for boring viewing.

Here’s hoping for a closer game in Nelson, one that’s not dominated by bouncers:

The Series So Far

The Black Caps took game one in Christchurch by 77 runs after Tom Latham and Colin Munro took the game away from the Bangladeshis late in the first innings. Latham made 137 and Munro 87 to carry New Zealand to 341, which proved to be far too good. Bangladesh showed they wouldn’t fall over, but in the end, New Zealand’s sustained short bowling tactic managed to find their opponents fall short.

The Teams

New Zealand (likely):

1 Martin Guptill, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Neil Broom, 5 James Neesham , 6 Colin Munro, 7 Luke Ronchi (wk), 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Lockie Ferguson, 11 Trent Boult

New Zealand is unlikely to make changes to the side that comfortably won game one. Tim Southee and Trent Boult are being rested later in the series so expect them to play again at the expense of Matt Henry and Colin de Grandhomme.

Bangladesh (likely):

1 Tamim Iqbal, 2 Imrul Kayes, 3 Mahmudullah, 4 Shakib Al Hasan, 5 Sabbir Rahman, 6 Mosaddek Hossain, 7 Nurul Hasan (wk), 8 Mehedi Hasan/Tanbir Hayder, 9 Mashrafe Mortaza (capt), 10 Mustafizur Rahman, 11 Taskin Ahmed

With Mushfiqur Rahman out of the series with a hamstring injury, Nurul Hasan will don the gloves. He’s likely to be joined by either Mehedi Hasan or Tanbir Hayde, either of which could replace the at risk Soumya Sarkar.

The Key Players

New Zealand

Given he’s only played three one-day internationals, it seems a little odd to be highlighting Lockie Ferguson, but New Zealand’s obvious tactic to bowl short at the Bangladeshi batsman means Ferguson is a critical cog in the Black Caps game plan. The right armer will be asked to bowl fast, short and threatening and when he does, he’s a chance to take a fist full of wickets.

Bangladesh

Without Mishfiqur, Shakib Al Hasan shapes up as the most important player in the tourist’s side. The world-class all round compiled a polished fifty in the first game but needs to turn that into a big hundred here in game two if his side is to have a chance. Shakib does need to be careful not to get too loose attacking the short ball. He appeared to get too hyped up flailing at the short stuff and needs to be more composed; picking the appropriate ball to go after.

The Match Odds*

New Zealand – $1.16

Bangladesh – $5

*All odds courtesy of Bet365.

The Prediction

Maybe not quite as dominant as they were in Nelson, but we’re still expecting another New Zealand win. The lower wicket will play to Bangladesh’s hands, which will make it closer, but not close enough to be an upset. New Zealand by four wickets or 30 runs.

The Best Bets

Colin Munro has already proven to be a handful for the Bangladeshi bowlers and there are not many New Zealand grounds that can contain him. He’s paying $8 to top score and he doesn’t need many balls to achieve that.

Shakib’s at $5.50 to top score for the tourists. He was good for some money in game one where we backed him to score fifty. Shakib top scoring could be on the cards.

If you’re looking for lower odds but something closer to unbackable, try Tim Southee scoring less than 41.5. He doesn’t have a hope of scoring that and it’s paying $1.83.

A Boxing Day Sequel to Brisbane’s Epic

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Pakistan fought valiantly in Brisbane after being written off following their meek first innings. Their effort was surprising yet encouraging and gives game two in Melbourne an intriguing tint. Have Australia well and truly turned the corner, or does the fourth innings nerves prove that there are still nerves amongst the camp when they’re under pressure.

We’ll find out on Boxing Day when the MCG hosts the teams for game two of the series. Check out our thoughts on the key players and how you might be able to make some money from them below:

The Series So Far

The Gabba opener has been labelled the game of 2016, which is no mean feat given some of the exceptional games of cricket in Bangladesh featuring England earlier this year. At its conclusion, Australia snuck a 39 run win after setting Pakistan a mammoth 490 fourth innings chase. Pakistan garnered admiration for their effort in the fourth innings which was spearheaded by Asad Shafiq, Younis Khan and Azhar Ali. However, they also showed a fragility in the first innings that could be exposed throughout game two.

The Teams

Australia (likely):

1 David Warner, 2 Matt Renshaw, 3 Usman Khawaja, 4 Steve Smith (capt), 5 Peter Handscomb, 6 Hilton Cartwright, 7 Matthew Wade, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Josh Hazlewood, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Jackson Bird.

Debutant Hilton Cartwright is expected to replace Nic Maddinson after the left-hander has registered just 5 runs in his first three test knocks. The team is otherwise settled.

Pakistan (likely):

Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), Azhar Ali, Sami Aslam, Younis Khan, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), Yasir Shah, Mohammad Amir, Wahab Riaz, Rahat Ali.

No changes are expected from the visitors for game two at the MCG.

The Key Players

Australia: David Warner was one of the big winners when the ICC announced their awards for 2015/16 during the week. Along with Starc, Warner was named in both the Test and ODI teams of the year. The selections illustrate just how important he is to the Australian side in both forms of the game, and how successful he has been.

Pakistan: Asad Shafiq is quickly becoming one of the premier test number 6s in the world. The diminutive veteran of 41 tests has hundreds in England, South Africa and Australia now, a feat that Kohli, Root and Williamson haven’t achieved. His even tempering and range of shots see him as the key player in the Pakistan batting line-up, as he proved in Brisbane. If he can replicate his effort, Pakistan could push Australia all the way and the test match well into the last day.

The Match Odds*

Australia – $1.40

Pakistan – $6

Draw – $5.50

*All odds courtesy of Bet365.

The Prediction

Australia hasn’t lost a Boxing Day test match since 2010 (against England). Therefore, we’re loathe to bet against them here. With momentum, history and form on their side, we expect Australia to win by 9 wickets or over 150 runs.

The Best Bets

Mitchell Starc was once rested for a Boxing Day test against Pakistan. It was 2012 and Micky Arthur didn’t last much longer after the blunder. He’s coaching Pakistan now but I don’t think he’ll be able to prepare his side for the Starc onslaught that’s about to head their way. We’re backing him to be the best Australian bowler at $2.75.

Younis Khan’s second innings of 65 showed he’s approaching close to his best form. He could be good money at $4.50 to top score for the tourists. If his top three can shield him from Starc early, a half century or more could be on the cards.

Fast Pitch, Pink Ball Welcome Pakistan to Australia

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Pakistan has arrived in Australia for a three-match test series, beginning with a day-night test in Brisbane. We take a look at the main talking points ahead of the match and give our tips for finding the best betting options.

The Last Time These Two Met

In the 2014/15 series, Australia was deeply embarrassed. The Australians caved to spin in the UAE, but as is often the case in matchups between these two sides, the home side usually prevails – so Australia is well and truly expected to bounce back from that 2-0 series defeat two years ago.

Both games were bossed by Pakistan. By 221 runs and 356 runs. Expect none of the same here, and more of the same of Pakistan’s last trip to Australia – they lost all nine games across the three formats including a 3-0 clean sweep in the test matches.

The Teams

Australia (likely):

1 David Warner, 2 Matt Renshaw, 3 Usman Khawaja, 4 Steve Smith (capt), 5 Peter Handscomb, 6 Nic Maddinson, 7 Matthew Wade, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Josh Hazlewood, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Jackson Bird.

The Australians will be unchanged from the side that saved some face and beat South Africa in the third test of that series. Despite several of the personnel changing the group will also be on a high after sweeping New Zealand in the interruptive ODI series.

Pakistan (from):

Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), Azhar Ali, Sami Aslam, Sharjeel Khan, Younis Khan, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), Mohammad Rizwan, Yasir Shah, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Amir, Wahab Riaz, Rahat Ali, Sohail Khan, Imran Khan.

Pakistan hasn’t shown their hand yet, but they have retained the same group of players that were soundly beaten by New Zealand recently. While competitive at times in that series, their batsman lacked runs and made things incredibly hard for their talented bowling unit. They’ll need more from the likes of Misbah, Ali and Sami Aslam.

The Key Players

Australia: Josh Hazlewood is the completely unregarded, humble and quiet achieving lynchpin of the Australian fast bowling stocks that rarely gets the credit he deserves. His accuracy and patience traits pale in comparison to the speed and swing of Mitchell Starc, however, they are arguably more important to his team’s chances. He’s unrelenting and the perfect foil for Starc, especially as players relax a touch when they don’t have Starc screaming in at them. Look out for Hazlewood to have a big impact on this series.

Pakistan: The fast Australian pitches could suit one player more than any other in the Pakistan squad, and that’s Sarfraz Ahmed. The wicketkeeper-batsman loves to play his shots; hit through the line. Consistent bounce and with a bit of speed behind the ball (especially at the GABBA) could suit his game immeasurably. He could thrive with the extra bounce unlike some of his teammates who may struggle.

The Match Odds

Australia – $1.38 at Unibet.

Pakistan – $6.60 at Betfair.

Draw – $7.40 at Betfair.

The Prediction

Australia will be far too strong over the three games let alone the series opener. They’ll boss the tempo of the game, so expect huge totals and twenty wickets. Australia to carry on their revitalisation and get their second straight win with the exciting and young squad.

The Best Bets

Usman Khawaja to top score at $4.50 from William Hill looks like good money. He loves batting in Australian conditions and generally turns hundreds into really big ones.

Wahab Riaz may enjoy the extra pace of the GABBA if he gets a chance to play. Cricket fans all over the world will remember his spell during the World Cup to Shane Watson and if he can generate anywhere near the same sort of pace and discomfort in spells here he could easily be the top Pakistan bowler. $4.50 again at William Hill.

Black Caps Staring Down The Barrel

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Chappell-Hadlee series is already a lost cause for the Black Caps. Heavy losses in games one and two mean the men in black are left playing for pride in the final game of the series in Melbourne tomorrow.

Pride is important though given the magnitude of the losses so far. Especially when you consider the lack of enthusiasm the Black Caps have played with, the uncharacteristic mistakes they’ve made in the field and the strange decision they made behind closed doors (toss decisions and batting order).

We expect the Black Caps to be more competitive in game three, but can they overcome the gulf in class between them and the in-form Australians.

The Series So Far

Australia has already sealed the Chappell-Hadlee series thanks to dominant wins in the opening two games. In both matches, the hosts have scored over 300 runs in impressive batting displays, and in both matches, the Black Caps haven’t got close to getting near their chasing targets.

In Sydney, Australia was led by a huge Steve Smith century. The captain survived a close LBW shout and a difficult dropped catch to bring up ODI century number 7. In reply, only four New Zealanders got themselves to double figures (albeit one of them was the ultra impressive Martin Guptill who scored 114) and the final margin was 68 runs.

In Canberra, it was David Warner’s turn to bring up a personal milestone and provide the backbone of the Australian effort. The nuggety opener scored 119 and was ably supported by Smith, Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh. New Zealand was ragged with ball in hand, sloppy in the field, and ultimately left to rue their decision to bowl first. Despite runs from Guptill, James Neesham and Kane Williamson, the Black Caps lost by 116 runs.

The Teams

Australia (from):

David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steven Smith (capt), George Bailey, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Matthew Wade (wk), James Faulkner, Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood.

Maxwell is likely to miss out again. But Adam Zampa could return on the ground he plays his Big Bash cricket on.

Aaron Finch and George Bailey are the batsmen with the most to prove after missing out in the series so far.

New Zealand (likely):

Kane Williamson (capt), Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson, Martin Guptill, Colin de Grandhomme, Tom Latham, Colin Munro, Henry Nicholls, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, BJ Watling (wk).

Jimmy Neesham might miss out after taking a blow to his arm from Mitchell Starc. Lockie Ferguson could also get another opportunity at the expensive of the disappointing Matt Henry.

The Key Players

Australia

David Warner and Steve Smith- If the Black Caps can get Warner and Smith cheaply they’ll win the game. Okay, it’s not that simple, but these two have scored a combined total of 2386 runs this year – Warner with 1232 and Smith with 1154. Their importance to an Australia win is immense. For Smith, Australia lost nine of those 11 matches when he scored 30 runs or less. For Warner, Australia lost five of those 11 when he scored less than 25. The Black Caps must find a way to stop them if they’re to have any chance in Melbourne.

New Zealand

Martin Guptill – The middle of Martin Guptill’s bat must have taken a battering in the two matches thus far. The Kiwi opener has middled everything and looked the best player in black by the size of some of his sixes. Take the white clothing off him and he’s a freakishly good player. Expect more of the same from him in game three. If he can turn in a Steve Smith type performance – a really big hundred – New Zealand could get the 350+ total they’ll need to avoid a series whitewash.

The Match Odds

Australia – $1.29 at Betstar.

New Zealand – $3.75 at Bookmaker.

The Prediction

It’s not just the first two games in the series that Australia has dominated. They’ve dominated everyone who has travelled to Australia for ODI games over the last two years. Extending the winning run to 17 of the last 18 games at home, Australia has forged a formidable home ground advantage. Expect that to continue in the final match of the series.

The Best Bets

Not much money on Smith, Warner or Guptill to top score here, so you might have to think outside the box to get a decent win banked. Consider Pat Cummins to be in the wickets again, he’s paying $5 to be Australia’s leading wicket taker.

On the New Zealand side, Tim Southee at $4 looks decent odds given he’s the most experienced New Zealand death bowler and could get some cheapie in the slog overs.

Can England Save Face in 4th Test Against India

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India will look to wrap up a series win against England when the 4th Test begins on the 8th December in Mumbai. After the drawn first test, the hosts have been well and truly on top since then with convincing back-to-back victories. The major problem for England has been their batting form. England hasn’t reached 300 in any of their previous five innings. The Indian bowlers have been on top so far, and have dominated quite early in England’s previous four innings.

Can England Reverse the Tide?

The question is can England battle back from 2-0 down to gain some credibility in this series? History tells us that when a touring side goes 2-0 down in a five test series, then the series result is a foregone conclusion. It is always difficult for any touring side. The long periods away from home and away from loved ones really takes its toll. It appears that the best that England can hope for is perhaps to win a test and exit India with some credibility. The reality is that England is on the verge of being trounced in India.

Bet365 quote India at just 1-2 to win the 4th Test and that seems fair. Coral quote 9-2 for the draw, while 4-1 for an England win is pretty standard across all of the betting sites, including Boyle Sports. If you are looking for value and want to place a bet on this match then looking at past history, which is usually a pretty reliable guide.

Searching for the Reasons

Listening to the professional analysts pour over the data from the previous three tests is quite interesting. Some of them even quote a case for England clawing their way back into the series. To do that, they would have to win this fourth test! No other result keeps the series alive. While England’s performances haven’t been a disaster, too many players have underperformed so far, while India has had around half a dozen players at the very top of their game.

Whether it is fatigue, good tactics from the Indian bowlers, poor form, or whatever is hard to say. The facts are quite damning and Andrew Strauss has some tough decisions to make that may go way beyond this current series. England has now lost no fewer than eight test matches this year. There is something clearly wrong. When we consider that this is a very talented team on paper, those stats make for grim reading. Not since the 1990’s has England lost so many test matches in a calendar year.

It could mean that the older generation may be coming to an end and are simply mentally worn out by too much test match cricket. It is difficult to see England winning the fourth test. In fact, it is difficult to see England winning a test match in this series at all. If you are looking for a bet, then it would be prudent to avoid betting on England despite the 4-1 odds.