Pakistan Braced for Another Chilly Reception

More seam and swing is expected in Hamilton for the second test between New Zealand and Pakistan starting today. Green pitches that offer support to the bowlers was once a tried and tested formula for matches hosted in New Zealand as the home side looked to utilise their home advantage to put touring batsman under pressure. After a brief departure from the formula, NZ Cricket has returned to seaming conditions. And it worked excellently in game one of this series.

Will it work again? Or will Pakistan win a crucial toss and flip the script?

Find out our prediction and betting tips below:

The Last Time These Two Met

The rain affected first test in Christchurch threw up little by way of surprises. The Pakistan batsmen were always expected to struggle in swinging conditions, and debutant Colin de Grandhomme took full advantage to take the game away from Pakistan on the second morning. New Zealand ended up taking the spoils by a comfortable eight wickets.

The Teams

New Zealand (likely):

1 Jeet Raval, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Kane Williamson (capt.), 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Henry Nicholls, 6 Colin de Grandhomme, 7 BJ Watling (wk), 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Neil Wagner, 11 Matt Henry

For the Black Caps, Trent Boult has been ruled out, paving the way for impressive seamer Matt Henry to resume his stop-start test career. Mitchell Santner also returns to the side after breaking a hand in the nets. He replaces Todd Astle. There were some concerns over an eye problem for Ross Taylor, but he will play and have surgery after the test series.

Pakistan (likely):

1 Sami Aslam, 2 Azhar Ali (capt.), 3 Babar Azam, 4 Younis Khan, 5 Mohammad Rizwan, 6 Asad Shafiq, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 8 Wahab Riaz, 9 Yasir Shah, 10 Mohammad Amir, 11 Sohail Khan

Pakistan may opt for Mohammad Rizwan instead of Sharjeel Khan. While What Riaz could replace Rahat Ali. The two bowling changes will help the side to take twenty wickets on a surface expected to give plenty of assistance, but they don’t fix an already long tail.

The Key Players

New Zealand

Tim Southee – A slightly odd highlight for a bowler that has been without his best for some time. The former spearhead has lost speed, swing and rhythm since Alan Donald and then Shane Bond left the NZ coaching group. However, in this test, without Trent Would, he’s needed more than ever. He’s the main swing bowler in the group (Wagner and Henry are much more into the pitch bowlers) and in favourable conditions needs to take charge and make the batsmen uncomfortable.

Pakistan

Azhar Ali – The Pakistani captain was solid in Christchurch without being spectacular. He batted for 173 balls in the second innings to blunt the NZ bowling group at the start of the second dig, but a better approach to turning over the strike is now required. Bowlers get too comfortable bowling to one player and not conceding runs, the pressure goes on the batsman and not the bowler. Ali should be looking to help out his fellow batsman and keep the scoreboard ticking over, because once he falls, the team has a penchant to collapse. He’s especially crucial given Misbah will miss the match.

The Match Odds

New Zealand – $2.40 at Unibet.

Pakistan – $5.10 at Unibet.

Draw – $2.54 at Unibet.

The Prediction

It’s hard to see Pakistan putting up more of a fight than they did in Christchurch. That’s not implying their not good enough or mentally prepared to tough it out, it’s simply an indication of the unfamiliarity of the cold, bowler friendly conditions. Without Misbah the challenge looks too great. New Zealand by five wickets or 150 runs.

The Best Bets

If you believe in batsmen being “due” to score runs, then the money on Ross Taylor is attractive. He’s paying $5 to be New Zealand best batsman. He’s had his recent struggles but has traditionally been pretty consistent against Pakistan.

Rebuilding Starts as Australia Look to Avoid Whitewash

There’s plenty of intrigue in game three of the Australian / South African cricket series. There’s pink balls, selection overhauls, argy-bargy in airports and ball tampering. Whatever happens, game three in Adelaide is sure to include some drama and some great betting opportunities.

Check out our thoughts on the day-night test:

The Last Time These Two Met

The second test in Hobart was an unmitigated disaster for the Australians. Collapses in both innings and the lowest number of balls faced in a home test match since 1928, meant a heavy defeat by an innings and 80 runs. Australia made just 85 in the first dig and 161 in the second (from a position of 2/129); struggling in the face of quality seam bowling by Abbott, Rabada and Philander.

The loss has been the catalyst for a significant overhaul in election policies and personnel. Gone is former chief selector Rod Marsh, replaced by Trevor Hohns, and sweeping changes have been made to the squad (more below). The unsettling changes could mean Australia are facing the very real threat of a series whitewash, which could mean they’re favourites as they look to blood fresh players that are unscathed from the previous two results.

The Teams

Australia (likely):

1 David Warner, 2 Matt Renshaw, 3 Usman Khawaja, 4 Steve Smith (capt), 5 Peter Handscomb, 6 Nic Maddinson, 7 Matthew Wade, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Josh Hazlewood, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Jackson Bird.

Australia has made a host of changes to the team that lost in Hobart. Out goes Joe Burns, Adam Voges, Peter Nevill, Joe Mennie and Callum Ferguson. In for their debuts are Renshaw, Handscomb and Maddinson. The selections are a significant shift in the Australian selectors thinking. Replacing older players with players of the future hasn’t always been their way (think Hussey, North, Voges and Rogers for players who made their debuts at late stages in their careers).

South Africa (likely):

1 Stephen Cook, 2 Dean Elgar, 3 Hashim Amla, 4 JP Duminy, 5 Faf du Plessis (capt), 6 Temba Bavuma, 7 Quinton de Kock (wk), 8 Vernon Philander, 9 KA Maharaj 10 Kyle Abbott, 11 Kagiso Rabada.

No changes expected for the South Africans after Far du Plessis was fined for ball tampering but not suspended.

The Key Players

Australia

David Warner – The left-hander has been the biggest disappointment in the series thus far. As always, he’s looking a million dollars every time he bats, but, he just can’t seem to go on with it and get the huge 170 that Australia is desperately seeking. As an important member of the senior leadership team, he needs to convert starts (aside from the 1 he scored in the first innings of game two, he’s had a start each time) into long innings and platforms for his middle order.

South Africa

Quinton de Kock – In the mould of Adam Gilchrist, de Kock has had a huge influence on this series. Scores of 64, 84, 104 not only display some beautiful symmetry and code but also evidence a batsman in exceptional form. If he can continue his free-scoring fun, even against the pink ball, South Africa will be well on the way to achieving the 3-0.

The Match Odds

Australia – $2.60 at Ladbrokes.

South Africa – $2.10 at Bet365.

Draw – $6.40 at Betfair.

The Prediction

The great leveller in game three is the pink ball. Notoriously difficult to see, prone to swinging and just a little unusual (just ask Matthew Wade, the colour blind keeper has admitted to having some issues seeing the ball); the pink ball and lights could even up the contest. It appears bookies are thinking the same way with less separating the teams than the first two tests would indicate.

We actually like Australia to win this one. They have more experience against the pink ball, and we’ve seen too many unlikely wins on the back of coach and player changes to tempt a nice turnaround script.

The Best Bets

There’s been plenty of money on Usman Khawaja ($4.70) and Matt Renshaw ($6) to be Australia’s top batsman. However, depending on when the top order face-off against the new ball, the top three might not be the safe option. What about Nic Maddinson at $7.60 instead.

On the bowling side of things, why not consider Vernon Philander to take wickets and thus be named man of the match ($13). If any bowler in world cricket can exploit a wobbling ball and favourable atmospheric conditions, it’s Philander.

Cricket ODI South Africa vs. Australia : Get Ready for Runs

The fourth One Day International (ODI) between South Africa and Australia could be a record-breaking affair in Port Elizabeth. With South Africa posting the second-highest run chase in ODI history on October 5, Russell Domingo’s men will line up on October 9 full of confidence.

Leading the charge and knocking balls for six like they were going out of fashion in the third match was South Africa’s David Miller. Notching up 118 not out, Miller’s efforts not only helped the home side claim victory by four wickets, but it outshone two superb innings by Australia’s David Warner and Steve Smith.

Heading into the fourth match it could be this fact alone that will give South Africa the edge. Despite Warner and Smith both notching up centuries to help the Aussies to a 371-6 total, their best just wasn’t enough to topple a South Africa team on white-hot form. When any team produces a strong performance but still walks away in second place it can be a tough pill to swallow and, if that’s true on October 9, we could see Australia choke again.

South Africa Odds on for a Fourth Win

The latest cricket betting odds at Ladbrokes has South Africa leading the way at 8/11 with Australia bringing up the rear at 11/10. Over at Sun Bets it’s much of the same, as South Africa is currently topping the odds with a betting line set at 4/6.

From an overall perspective, this match could easily go either way. South Africa might have the psychological and numerical edge, but Australia’s players gave a strong account of themselves in the third showdown. With that being the case, it would be remiss of a canny punter to overlook the 6/5 price Winner Sports has on offer.

Of course, if you really want to unearth some value from this ODI clash, it’s worth looking at the individual player market. As we’ve said, Miller put on a clinic last time out, and could have batted well over the 118 had he not run out of time. With that match taking place just a few days ago, it’s hard to see how Miller will have lost his touch in that time, which means he could be on for another strong total if he gets to the crease.

It’s Miller Time

For anyone willing to jump on that bandwagon, 6/1 at Sun Bets for Miller to be the top scorer is too tempting a price to overlook, as is 22/1 Andile Phehlukwayo who hit 42 not out in the same game. If you’re inclined to look on the other side of the oval towards Australia’s finest, seeing past Warner and Smith in the batting stakes is tough.

Indeed, not only did they both hit centuries last time out, there’s a chance South Africa will take their eye off the ball on October 9. With a 3-0 lead in the five-game series, the pressure (and possibly incentive) is off, and that could cause South Africa to take their foot off the gas this weekend. If that does happen, the likes of Warner and Smith are more than capable of seizing that opportunity.

11/4 for Warner and 7/2 for Smith being the top Aussie batsman are strong prices from Winner Sports. If leading totals aren’t your thing but you like the look of Warner, Sun Bet’s 5/6 on the Aussie scoring over 32.5 runs is certainly tempting.

Of course, if you’re a neutral and enjoy a coin flip (literally), 10/11 on either side winning the toss over at Ladbrokes should provide a sniff of added excitement before the balls start to fly.