Tag: Curragh

Irish Oaks 2014 Preview

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The whole complexion of the race has changed in the Irish Oaks after the late defection of odds-on favourite Taghrooda. Trainer John Gosden will now aim the Epsom winner at the King George & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot.

Punters who backed the filly down to 1-2 favourite will feel aggrieved but the decision is that of owner Sheikh Hamdan rather than Gosden’s. He also owns second favourite Tarfasha who has assumed favouritism for Dermot Weld.

There was some question as to whether or not Tarfasha would stay the mile and a half at Epsom and I am not completely convinced after her second place effort. She looked as though she would run into a clear second but was all out to get the verdict over Volume in the final stages. To my mind, Luca Cumani’s filly looks the form horse.

She was kicked on very early by Richard Hughes and all seemed to be going well until she became unbalanced in the home straight. Hughes had voiced his concerns after riding the filly to victory at Newbury and Cumani arranged a special trial run for Volume prior to the Oaks. The much flatter track at the Curragh should suit the filly much better and she looks a solid bet to be in the frame.

Aidan O’Brien provides two of the likeliest dangers in Bracelet and Marvellous, although I am worried by the former. Bracelet wore a hood for the first time at Royal Ascot and held off the late flourish of Lustrous. She had run poorly in the 1000 Guineas and clearly appreciated the mile and a half.

Marvellous looks like a soft ground filly after grinding out an unlikely victory in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Ryan Moore was at her a long way out that day and it was a surprise to me that she started favourite at Epsom. She finished a never dangerous sixth and the going has gone against her this weekend.

It is difficult to see anything else getting into this and I am hoping that Kevin Manning elects to kick on early on Volume. She does not seem to possess much in the way of acceleration but seems to lack nothing in terms of stamina.

Volume 5.45 The Curragh @11-2 Bet365

Irish 2000 Guineas Preview

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Having backed Kingman for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket at odds of 16-1 last June, it was frustrating to see the race split into two groups. I remember being at the track when Hawk Wing was beaten in similar circumstances by Rock Of Gibraltar, although it turned out that both were brilliant milers.

Night Of Thunder’s 40-1 win was hard to explain after Kingman had beaten him so convincingly at Newbury in the Greenham. I suppose he just needed the run more than the favourite and improved considerably for the race. The fact that he won despite veering off a true line suggests that he was a worthy winner.

Kingman now goes in search of redemption in the Irish equivalent and is odds-on to succeed. The race is very different to Newmarket’s straight mile and James Doyle should be able to get a breather into his colt. The one slight concern is the going at the Curragh, currently described as yielding. Kingman probably wouldn’t want it any softer as the Curragh mile takes some getting if they go a fast pace.

Shifting Gold made heavy weather of winning the European Free Handicap but ran the race of his life in the Guineas to finish fourth. Connections were clearly elated with that effort and he bids to give Hannon Junior a second classic. He looks the sort of horse to grind out his victories rather than win impressively so I’d expect to see Richard Hughes ride him close to the pace.

Dermot Weld’s Mustajeb seems to be all the rage after an easy win in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. Whilst you could not fault the style of his victory, you have to doubt whether beating Brendan Brackan entitles him to be as short at 6-1 against horses with classic form.

War Command was only ninth in the Guineas, sinking our other ante-post wager placed after his demolition job in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Clearly he was a classic case of a good horse that did not really improve and he has been overtaken by others in his generation. The positive vibes from Ballydoyle were all about Australia prior to the Guineas and they proved to be correct.

This does not look like a race to get rich on but Kingman should beat this field and head to the Royal meeting for a possible re-match with Night Of Thunder.

Kingman 8-11 Bet365, William Hill

Curragh Sunday Preview

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What a great week at Doncaster! Outstrip (9-4) completed four winning days in a row after Lightning Thunder (5-2), The Lark (15-8) and Ihtimal (7-4). The Godolphin colt was very impressive in winning the Champagne Stakes, just as his stable companion had produced a scintillating performance on Friday in the May Hill.

We cross the water on Sunday for the Irish St Leger meeting and I’m hoping that the O’Brien team can provide me with a fifth consecutive winner in the form of Darwin. This colt is an American import and everyone at Ballydoyle has been very excited about him since he arrived. O’Brien has passed up several tempting engagements in a bid to take it slowly with the imposing son of Big Brown and he looks the stand-out bet on a top quality card.

He arrived with a big reputation and was sent off at 11-10 for his debut at Naas where he sauntered to comfortable victory. His next start was a Group 3 at the Curragh and he faced stiff opposition in the form of Gordon Lord Byron. Leitir Mor, usually employed as a pacemaker for Dawn Approach but no mean performer himself, set the pace with Joseph O’Brien content to track him in second place. Gordon Lord Byron was settled in Darwin’s slipstream and the race began in earnest at the two-furlong marker.

For a moment it looked as though Darwin had a fight on his hands but he responded well to pressure and was going much the better at the finish, drawing a length and three-quarters clear. Gordon Lord Byron has won twice since, most notably the Haydock Sprint Cup which he won in a canter. On that evidence, Darwin is going to take high rank in the mile division before the end of the season.

Stable companion Indian Chief looked decent earlier in the season when second in the Dante Stakes at York but has been disappointing since whilst Elleval and Brendan Brackan are well exposed. Fort Knox would be a bigger danger if the going eases in time as he was not disgraced behind Royal Blue Star on his first start since the Irish Guineas.

The Irish St Leger itself has turned out to be slightly disappointing in terms of quality. Galileo Rock ran at Doncaster, Brown Panther misses the race through injury and Simenon is also absent. I hope that Ahzeemah can uphold the form of his victory over Simenon at York and boost the latter’s Melbourne Cup claims.

Darwin 4-6 Bet365

Moyglare Stud Stakes Preview

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The only race with ante-post prices chalked up for the weekend at the moment is the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. Aidan O’Brien is normally one to keep his cards close to his chest but by supplementing Tapestry he has signposted his leading fancy here.

The daughter of Galileo already has a course and distance victory to her credit having won the Group Two Debutante Stakes earlier this month and it is no surprise that her early quote of 3-1 was quickly snapped up. She is now a top price of 2-1 and challenging the brilliant Albany Stakes winner Kiyoshi for favouritism.

O’Brien has also declared Bluebell, Minorette, Perhaps and Wonderfully among the 13 fillies still in the Group 1 contest. Perhaps set a decent pace in the Debutante but Tapestry overhauled her without coming under too much pressure to win by a length and three-quarters. The winner did not show brilliant acceleration but was well on top at the line and we know that she stays the seven furlongs well.

Charlie Hills has kept Kiyoshi under wraps since her devastating win at Royal Ascot. Much was made of her swerve across the course in the closing stages and there is a slight concern about how she will respond when she comes under serious pressure. What cannot be denied is that she was clearly the best filly that day and it is worth taking a closer look at those that finished behind her.

The runner-up Sandiva won a Group 2 at Deauville on her next start whilst Lucky Kristale (6th) has won the Cherry Hinton and the Lowther Stakes (both also Group 2 races). Princess Noor (9th) came out and won the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot (Group 3). When Kiyoshi won her maiden at Goodwood she beat Ihtimal who has since won the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes.

Connections seem happy that her violent deviation off a true line at Ascot was due to greenness and hitting the front too soon. Jamie Spencer had apparently compared her favourably with Irish Guineas winner Just The Judge prior to her win at the Royal meeting so there will be some long faces if she doesn’t put up a good performance on Sunday.

It is not a two-horse race and I have tons of respect for Clive Brittain’s Rizeena. She won well in the Queen Mary at Ascot and I was disappointed when she found Lucky Kristale too good at Newmarket. She didn’t appear to be at her best that day but ran a lot better last time when third in the Prix Morny behind No Nay Never. She was slowly away but made up plenty of late ground to finish on the heels of the winner. Had this race been over six furlongs, I’d fancy her strongly but going up to seven from five seems a big step.

Jim Bolger has stated that he does not which he will run from Agus Spraoi, Peony Fairy and Prudent Approach whilst Dermot Weld is double-handed with Afternoon Sunlight and Carla Bianca. I’d be very surprised if any of them are in the same class as Tapestry, Kiyoshi and Rizeena.

I think if you’d taken the 3-1 Tapestry you would probably be quite happy with yourself but Kiyoshi has to be the form choice. She is a top price 7-4 and may even go to 2-1 if the gamble on Tapestry is sustained.

Kiyoshi 7-4 Bet365

Irish Oaks Preview

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The Irish Oaks on Saturday evening sees the reappearance of Epsom winner Talent. Ralph Beckett’s filly upset her stable companion (and my ante-post bet!) Secret Gesture when powering past her inside the final furlong to score decisively.

Secret Gesture has picked up a minor knock and misses the race, although Beckett had already hinted at the likelihood of her swerving the race in favour of the Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Jim Crowley was on “the wrong one” last time but is back on board Talent here. The withdrawal of Secret Gesture has caused the bookies to shorten the odds on just about every other runner and they may have to sharpen their pens again shortly.

Alive Alive Oh is turning into something of a party pooper. After two impressive victories she was well backed to win the Ribblesdale but was pulled out due to fast ground. She was then reported in season for her next intended start and there are doubts about her turning up again on Saturday. With the heatwave even persisting in my part of Scotland it is safe to assume that it is the same across the water and it has to be good to firm at best.

In the event, the Ribblesdale provided Lady Cecil with the winner that everyone was hoping for so soon after the sad death of Sir Henry. It is difficult to knock the performance of Riposte that day. She missed the break but soon made up the ground and cut through the pack to win nicely. Following in her slipstream was Aidan O’Brien’s Just Pretending.

Riposte is 5-2 whilst Just Pretending is 14-1 and it is the disparity in the prices that interests me. Just Pretending had been placed in the Irish Guineas after being kicked on two furlongs from the finish. She was held up in the Ribblesdale, presumably because she was being asked to travel half a mile further than she had previously. Her breeding suggests she may be best at a mile and a quarter but evidently she gets a mile and a half well. I think she could provide some each-way value.

The French raider Chicquita is a bit of a puzzle. Normally I may have been tipping the runner-up in the French Oaks to win this but she is a bit of an oddball. She ran across the track and still finished second there but took even more drastic action the time before when running into a hedge rather than go straight! Johnny Murtagh has the task of keeping her from taking a diagonal course on Saturday and good luck to him. She has plenty of ability but I don’t want her carrying my money.

My second selection is a bit of a gamble in John Oxx’s once-raced Tarana. You can be sure that anything that runs in the colours of the Aga Khan is well bred and she is no exception, being by Cape Cross out of Galtres winner Tarakala. She won nicely on her debut back in September but has not managed to get back on the track since. I expect she will need the run but I’m prepared to take the risk at 20-1.

Just Pretending 14-1 William Hill
Tarana 20-1 William Hill

Irish Derby Ante-Post Preview

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Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World has been given an official rating of just 120, the lowest rating for a Derby winner this century. His figure is just one short of that given to Sir Percy who prevailed in a similarly bunched finish in 2006. Although Ruler Of The World had a length and a half to spare at the line, there were seven horses within four lengths at the end of a hugely controversial race.

For all the nonsense that has been said about Aidan O’Brien’s brilliant tactical move to slow the race down, the fact is that Dawn Approach destroyed his own chances by refusing to settle. I can think of many Guineas winners that did not stay the Derby distance but none that imploded so dramatically as Jim Bolger’s colt. That issue aside, what can we deduce about the future prospects for the first half dozen or so?

Ruler Of The World has been installed 15-8 favourite to follow up in the Irish Derby with runner-up Libertarian at 9-2, Battle Of Marengo 6-1, Galileo Rock and Mars 8-1. The betting suggests that the places should be confirmed at the Curragh. The problem with betting ante-post on the O’Brien horses is that you can never be too sure what is going to run where. Once again he has three of the first five in the market and other options including the Eclipse and the King George.

It was ironic that after such a sedate early pace the first three home were arguably the most stoutly-bred horses in the race. I was not keen on the Derby prospects of Libertarian after York because I felt that he would get too far out of his ground early on. To some extent this was true but he overhauled half a dozen horses in the last furlong and will almost certainly be supplemented for Ireland.

A couple of respected judges put up Galileo Rock as an each-way bet at huge prices last week and just scraped into third after racing prominently. It’s easy to imagine him developing into a leading St Leger contender but I’m not convinced that he has the speed to reverse the placings with the winner. Battle Of Marengo has yet to convince me that he stays a mile and a half and it wouldn’t surprise me if he bypassed the Curragh but Mars ran a hugely promising race.

Richard Hughes was probably hoping that the field would come back to him as they did in the Oaks a day previously but things did not pan out that way. Instead he found himself trying to make ground on horses that were quickening up the hill. He and Ocovango were the worst sufferers in the skirmishing that took place when the pace finally quickened but Mars ran on most encouragingly. He reminds me a little of Rip Van Winkle in that he finished out of the money at Newmarket and Epsom before proving to be top class over a mile to a mile and a quarter.

Because of my reservations about backing O’Brien’s horses ante-post, I am going to have to sit on the fence for the time being. I have a feeling that we may see Mars run in the Eclipse and Ruler Of The World run at the Curragh but I’m not about to risk my cash second-guessing the master of Ballydoyle.