Tag: Dandino

Caulfield Cup 2014 Preview

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The draw for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup has delivered a huge blow to the hopes of last year’s runner-up Dandino by pitching him into the outside barrier.

Craig Williams had been hopeful that the Melbourne Cup fifth would go one better at Caulfield this year with maximum confidence emanating from the Marco Botti stable. Dandino almost overcame a wide draw a year ago when flashing home in second from barrier 16 behind Fawkner. Everything has gone perfectly in his preparation but Williams will now have to ride the race of his life to get the seven-year-old home in front.

Craig Newitt faces a different set of problems aboard the stables other runner, Seismos. The son of Dalakhani beat Willing Foe by a neck in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time out and he has drawn the one barrier. Newitt will have to decide whether to try to hold his position on the inside or tuck in behind and hope that he does not get shuffled too far back.

Japanese top weight Admire Rakti has fared much better with barrier eight but this looks like a prep run for the Melbourne Cup. The two favourites to take the $3 million prize on Saturday are Lucia Valentina (drawn 12) and the other Japanese hope Bande (drawn 10). Lucia Valentina’s claims are obvious after her win in the Turnbull Stakes but she was beaten on her only previous start at this distance.

She beat French import Lidari in that race and the runner-up has sneaked in on the withdrawal of My Ambivalent at the eleventh hour. A fine draw in barrier four has further boosted confidence in Luke Nolen’s mount who is a proven stayer. There was only a whisker between he and Brambles in that race but the latter is only a reserve and would be drawn wide if sneaking in.

Horses that fared less well in the draw include Sea Moon and The Offer, drawn 21 and 19 respectively. Christophe Lemaire rides Bande with the intention apparently to race from the front on the four-year-old. Bande was only a neck behind Admire Rakti in a Grade 2 race at Hanshin in March and is marginally better off at the weights.

The Japanese were extremely disappointed at the failure of their strong raid on the prestigious Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe and are aiming to restore some International pride with a big win in Australia.

Chris Waller saddles up four runners led by Metropolitan winner Junoob from gate 15. That draw may not be unsurmountable and he looks to have a better chance than Hawkspur (9), Moriarty (7) and Who Shot Thebarman (16).

Lidari @16.0 bet365

Bande @9.0 Sportsbet*

*Sportsbet special offer – money back as a free bet up to $100 on first bet if 2nd, 3rd or 4th

Racing Preview Sept 6th

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Triple Chocolate (6-1) ensured another profit on Friday for Betcirca followers. Mistrusting duly landed the odds but our treble hopes were dashed when Master Bond was just run out of it in the sprint.

Saturday’s UK racing action is one of those days when you are left wondering why we have an embarrassment of riches one week and next to nothing the next. Ascot, Haydock and Kempton all feature top quality racing and there is even a Scoop 6 expected to hit a £3.5million jackpot!

Starting at Ascot, Cornrow looks difficult to oppose in the opening race for the Gosden and Buick team. He won impressively at Haydock over a mile and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by dropping back in trip as he raced keenly in front that day. The danger could be Safety Check who was given too much to do at Goodwood last time and is a real seven-furlong specialist.

You could make a case for a dozen different horses in the Heritage Handicap at 3.30. Most of the top yards are represented and Second Step, Montaly and Battersea all have sound claims. I am going to go with Rainbow Rock, one of four runners from Mark Johnston’s stable. I liked the way he stayed on at Goodwood over a mile and a quarter and the 5lb claim of Cam Hardie gives him a winning weight.

Over at Haydock, Chancery has been unlucky in his last couple of outings and could be worth each-way support in the Old Borough Cup. Havana Cooler is a worthy favourite but he lacks a bit of acceleration and the handicapper keeps pushing him up for being placed. I think 9st 10lb will prove too much of a burden while the free-running Nautilus and York winner Glenard are others with chances. The going looks to have gone against bottom weight Epsom Hill who has romped to victories in soft ground and been clobbered by the handicapper here.

Sole Power looks set to try and win over six furlongs for the first time in his career in the big sprint. The going is drying out for him but it must be doubtful whether he is quite as effective over this trip. You could have thrown a large horse blanket over the first ten at York in the Nunthorpe but G Force and Cougar Mountain both looked unlucky. They represent good each-way value against the favourite.

There is also a good card at Kempton with two Group 3 races. Godolphin run three in the September Stakes, any one of which could win. As all three have been off the track for some time, it is anybody’s guess and it could pay to side with our old friend Dandino. He finished second in the American St Leger in his double bid last time out but handles this surface and deserves a victory.

Hugo Palmer has been winning races for fun lately and has a high opinion of Home Of The Brave. He was impressive at Newmarket last time out and should get the better of Maftool in the Sirenia Stakes at 4.10.

Cornrow 1.55 Ascot @9-2 PaddyPower

Rainbow Rock 3.30 Ascot @10-1 Bet365

Dandino 2.20 Kempton @6-1 Coral

Home Of The Brave 4.10 Kempton @5-2 Bet365

Chancery 3.15 Haydock @14-1 PaddyPower

G Force 3.50 Haydock @10-1 BetVictor

Cougar Mountain 3.50 Haydock @14-1 BetVictor

Melbourne Cup – Runner-by-Runner Guide

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Over two months ago I put up Dandino (33-1) and Simenon (25-1) and both have made it safely to the big race. Better still, they have come through their prep races with flying colours and survived the lottery of the draw! It is an incredibly hot race this year and there are plenty of dangers. If you haven’t “played” yet, I wouldn’t put you off either horse and still think Dandino offers some value at a top price of 11-1 with 888Sport.

European runners enjoyed a fantastic Breeders’ Cup and I’m pleased to say that we came out on top with three winners from six selections including the impressive Outstrip at 6-1. It was so nearly four but The Fugue was just run out of it by Magician in the closing stages. Ryan Moore was at his brilliant best and his confidence will be sky high as he gets the leg up on Dandino.

As I mentioned previously, I have been impressed with Fiorente all the way through his preparation and expect him to be in the frame whilst Sea Moon is the class horse of the race. He may not have won over this trip yet but he stayed well enough to finish third in the St Leger in 2011 and he may have had a bit up his sleeve in the Herbert Power. I’m taking the best odds on those two as “cover bets” but will be cheering on Dandino and Simenon at 4.00am UK time!

Dandino 33-1*

Simenon 25-1*

Sea Moon 14-1 Coral

Fiorente 15-2 888Sport

*Ante-post advised

 

Complete Guide to the 24 runners

 

Fawkner

The Caulfield Cup winner held off the late challenge of Dandino but I’d be disappointed if the placings are not reversed this time. Dandino had to overcome a terrible draw whilst Fawkner had a pretty clear run. He is one of six Lloyd Williams runners and certainly has the form to make the first four at least.

 

Dunaden

The winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2011 and the Caulfield Cup in 2012 but has not shown quite the same sparkle this year. Jamie Spencer has teamed up with him this season and faces an interesting challenge from barrier 1. Not one for me but still a great favourite with Melbourne Cup fans.

 

Green Moon

Green Moon added his name to Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985) and Efficient (2007) as the fourth winner of the race owner Lloyd Williams. He’s slipped into the field almost unnoticed this year and his Cox Plate rate was not that far behind last year’s effort. His loyal followers will be hoping for a good run at a big price.

 

Red Cadeaux

If Trainer Ed Dunlop has started to joke about Red Cadeaux’s age catching up with him and any lingering hopes of finally getting his head in front must have disappeared with the 23 draw.  As admirable as he is, there is surely going to be something more sprightly to beat him this year.

 

Sea Moon

A high class colt for Sir Michael Stoute in England, he won the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot and was second in the Breeders’ Cup. He seems to have adapted well to his new surroundings and is going to be a real threat if he stays the trip. Simenon was not far behind him in the Herbert Power but Sea Moon gave the impression that he could have found more if needed.

 

Super Cool

All of Super Cool’s form is over shorter distances and this is a real shot in the dark. A fading fifth in the Cox Plate didn’t offer any clues as to his prospects of lasting out here and looks a big outsider

 

Voleuse De Coeurs

Voleuse De Coeurs did not seem anything special until blitzing the field by six lengths in the Irish St Leger. The four-year-old was immediately snapped up in a private deal and sent out to Australia specifically for this race. There are no doubts on stamina but a 21 barrier draw could make things difficult.

 

Fiorente

Gai Waterhouse is looking for her first win in the Melbourne Cup and Fiorente has been prepared with this race in mind all season. He made his Australian debut in this event 12 months ago and was only beaten a length at odds of 30-1. He has been running on well over trips well short of his best and looks the best of the home challenge.

 

Hawkspur

Hawkspur caught the eye when flying through up the inside to finish fifth in the Turnbull Stakes but a wide draw in the Caulfield Cup again left him too much to do. He is a habitual slow starter and anyone supporting him will be holding their breath through the early stages. He would need everything to go his way to win this but has the ability.

 

Tres Blue

Most of the attention will be Fiorente for Gai Waterhouse but she also saddles this promising French import. Without a prep run in Australia, so running in the big one first time out just as his stable companion did last year. A Group 2 winner in France and one of the unknown quantities in the field.

 

Brown Panther

This one is owned by former England soccer international Michael Owen and has already enjoyed big race success this year in the Goodwood Cup. He had a minor setback after that race and has had a slightly rushed preparation but has been catching the eye with his trackwork down under. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him sneak into the frame at a big price.

 

Foreteller

Foreteller burst on to the Melbourne Cup scene with his shock victory over Puissance De Lune in the Makybe Diva Stakes. The big question for his supporters is whether he can stay the Melbourne Cup trip. He made eye-catching late headway to finish fourth in the Cox Plate and will be one of several hoping for a sedate gallop.

 

Ethiopia

Most of the field go into the race on the back of a good recent run but that cannot be said of Ethiopia. He was beaten 64 lengths when finishing last 12 months ago but that was due to an injury. If this one pops up it will be a great result for the bookies!

 

Dandino

Anyone who reads my posts will know that I have been following this fellow all season and am sitting on a 33-1 voucher. He won the American St Leger in good style prior to running a cracker in the Caulfield Cup and jockey Ryan Moore is in flying form. I’m surprised that he is still as high as 11-1 in the UK and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.

 

Verema

His Highness the Aga Khan has his first ever runner in the Melbourne Cup and it is by no means impossible that he could win it. Verema is trained by Alain de Royer Dupre of Americain fame and this filly has a very similar profile.  I very nearly included her in my cover bets and it would not surprise me in the least if she is in the first four.

 

Mourayan

Trainer Robert Hickmott has better claims with Sea Moon, Fawkner, Green Moon, Seville and Masked Marvel. Mourayan did win the Sydney Cup so he has the stamina but it would be a major shock if he proved good enough to win.

 

Seville

Seville was up to classic standard when trained by Aidan O’Brien, beaten only by Treasure Beach in the Irish Derby in 2011. He was absolutely slammed by Sea Moon in the Great Voltigeur and has had his problems since going to Australia. Has been well backed in the past couple of weeks so a big run cannot be ruled out.

 

Dear Demi

Dear Demi won the Group 2 Furious Stakes and later chased home Commanding Jewel in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. She enjoyed Group 1 success in the Crown Oaks at Flemington last year but is unproven over this distance. Only last weekend she just failed to peg back Side Glance in the Group One Mackinnon Stakes and this race may come too quickly.

 

Mount Athos

I was a big supporter of this one last year but a poor draw and a bumpy ride sealed his fate, eventually running on into fifth. Newmarket trainer Luca Cumani has been second with Purple Moon (2007) and Bauer (2008) but insists that Mount Athos is better than either of those. His response to another wide draw was very succinct – “damn it!” I fear that he will again struggle to get involved from barrier 22.

 

Royal Empire

Godolphin’s quest for a Melbourne Cup winner started way back in 1998 and Royal Empire is their only surviving entry this year. He won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury but has been beaten twice since. Kerrin McEvoy will give him a good ride but a place may be the best that he can hope for.

 

Masked Marvel

The 2011 English St Leger has been slow to find his form in Australia but, in truth, he had lost his way in Europe long before he arrived down under. He would need to produce his best effort for a long time in order to feature here and will need a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play.

 

Simenon

If Dandino doesn’t win it, then I’m hoping that Simenon does. He is certainly better than a 25-1 shot judged on his fine effort when third in the Herbert Power Stakes. I am a little concerned at Richard Hughes having to sweat down to his lowest weight for the ride but Simenon can be ridden from anywhere and does have a finishing kick.

 

Ibicenco

The German-bred has just snatched a place by virtue of his win in a particularly weak looking renewal of the Geelong Cup. He was no great shakes when trained by Luca Cumani and I would be surprised if he proves good enough here.

 

Ruscello

On all known form, 50-1 is a fair price for the Lexus Stakes winner. Even his connections seriously doubted that he could make the line-up and they have Kerrin McEvoy to thank for his brilliant front-running ride on Saturday.

 

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Update

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I tipped Dandino at 33-1 over two months ago and his price has now contracted to as short as 6-1 after his excellent run in the Caulfield Cup last week. I feared the worst when he was drawn in barrier 19 but Craig Williams rode him in a very similar way to 2012 winner Dunaden, refusing to panic in the early stages and making relentless progress up the home straight.

There is no question that he put in a first rate prep for the Melbourne Cup and I wouldn’t swap my 33-1 ticket for any other horse at the moment. That run came off the back of a game success in the American St Leger following a light campaign over shorter distances in Europe. Trainer Marco Botti has already shown that he knows how to prepare one for the Cup with Jakkalberry grabbing a place in the frame 12 months ago.

I also put up Irish hope Simenon at 25-1 and he has also shaped encouragingly with an excellent third in the Herbert Power Stakes. A victory there would have guaranteed him a place in the starting line-up but he now requires seven horses to drop out. You would have to be optimistic that he will get his chance and he is now a top-priced 20-1. Having finished second in the Ascot Gold Cup in June, he will relish the step up in trip and will hopefully get a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play.

I’m happy with both selections at this stage and will not be adding to them, at least until the draw is made. The one I fear most is former Sir Michael Stoute galloper Fiorente. He also ran a fantastic trial and seems to have had the perfect build up for the big race. Mount Athos is quite short at 10-1 but he needs everything to go his way whilst Puissance de Lune has drifted out to 11-1 after a run of defeats.

Verema, Voleuse des Coeurs and Tres Blue are all going there with the potential to cause an upset and it promises to be a great race. If you’ve taken the 33-1 Dandino, keep your fingers crossed that he gets to the race in great shape and is given a better barrier draw at Flemington.

Dandino 33-1 “16th August

Simenon 25-1 Bet365

Caulfield Cup Preview

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Saturday’s Caulfield Cup looks to have been thrown wide open by the barrier draw with fancied runners Hawkspur and Dandino among those out wide. Confidence in Hawkspur seems to have evaporated since he pulled barrier 16 whilst English hope Dandino faces an impossible task from stall 19.

Hawkspur put up an eye-catching trial in the Turnbull Stakes when attempting to come from last with a sweeping run up the inside rail. In a tightly-bunched field, he had to weave his way between horses and could never get to the leaders in the race won by Happy Trails. Although he cannot be dismissed with Dunaden having won from stall 18 last year, his jockey must now hope for luck in running on this notorious slow-starter.

Dandino does not possess the same turn of foot as Hawkspur and would have been a major player given any sort of low draw. However, he is really going to struggle from stall 19 and Craig Williams will have to be at his very best. Punters have deserted Hawkspur in favour of stable companion and Australian Oaks winner Royal Descent. She also endured a troubled passage along with Jet Away and it is the former Sir Henry Cecil-trained inmate that interests me most of the pair.

Jet Away looked certain to be in the first four before being snatched up when crossed by a rival close home, dropping back to sixth. He had made good progress from the rear and it could be significant that four-time Caulfield Cup winner Damien Oliver has been booked for the ride on Saturday. At odds of around 9-1, he looks a decent each-way bet. He has drawn barrier 13 which, although not ideal, does at least give his rider a chance of settling closer to the pace.

With so many of the fancied horses drawn wide, the race looks set up for a possible shock result and My Quest For Peace could step up on his previous efforts. Last year he was sent over by Luca Cumani and ran fifth here from a low draw. If you dismiss his recent efforts over distances well short of his best, he could bounce back to form for Peter Moody.

Corey Brown knows the horse well having ridden him last year and his best form in Europe came when he was up with the pace. He will be arriving late from Singapore to take the ride. At odds of around 33-1, he could represent each-way value.

Jet Away 9-1 Bet365

My Quest For Peace 33-1 Stan James, Totesport

Melbourne Cup Ante-Post Preview

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A couple of weeks ago I selected Dandino at 33-1 for the Melbourne Cup and he did his chances no harm when winning the American St Leger. A tilt at the big race is now firmly on the cards for the six-year-old and his trainer Marco Botti knows how to prepare a horse for Flemington. Twelve months ago he saddled 80-1 outsider Jakkalberry to finish third behind Green Moon and the best price available for Dandino is now 25-1.

European horses have been travelling down to Australia with high hopes for many years but a win still eludes the Brits. Ireland and France have enjoyed some success and Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Simenon is another raider from the Emerald Isle with sound claims. Although beaten by Godolphin’s Ahzeemah in the Lonsdale Stakes at York last week, he was greatly inconvenienced by having to make his own running. For a horse that stays in excess of two miles, he is blessed with a useful turn of foot and many of his previous wins have come through a telling burst of speed.

The post-race coverage was mostly concerned with Godolphin and whether Ahzeemah would be joining impressive Newbury scorer Royal Empire in this year’s assault on Australia’s greatest race. Ahzeemah was soundly beaten by Brown Panther in the Goodwood Cup and that horse could also be Melbourne-bound. Of the two, I much prefer Brown Panther who was second in the Group 1 St Leger as a three-year-old but is only now fulfilling his potential.

Also behind Brown Panther at Goodwood was Luca Cumani’s Mount Athos, an unlucky fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year. He reappeared at the Sussex track on Saturday to run second to the in-form Harris Tweed and could be on the way back to his best. Cumani has twice saddled the runner-up at Flemington and felt that Mount Athos was the best horse he had taken over for the race last season. Two severe bumps ruined any chance that he may have had but, as a hold-up horse, he is always going to be reliant on a decent draw and luck in running.

The home team have the first and second favourite in the ante-post market with Puissance De Lune and Fiorente. UK racing fans will know Fiorente from his days with Sir Michael Stoute and it was no surprise that he ran as well as he did on his debut for Gai Waterhouse. He did his prospects no harm when finishing second to All Too Hard over an inadequate trip in April and his home reports are encouraging.

Puissance De Lune has gone from strength to strength and confirmed his well-being with a comeback win at Caulfield earlier this month. Although he has an obvious chance, a top price of 7-1 is not tempting with over 2 months to go to the race. Another former Stoute inmate, Sea Moon, is also high on the betting lists along with It’s A Dundeel but both horses could have other targets along the way.

You cannot rule out Red Cadeaux after his second to Royal Empire in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes. The 2011 runner-up is likely to run off a similar mark of around 115 and he certainly has experience on his side. Whilst it appeared a decent race on paper, I am a little concerned that the entire field finished within 8 lengths of each other.

As much as I like Brown Panther, I am mindful of the poor record of British runners and prefer to side with Irish raider Simenon. He has all of the right attributes to run a big race in Melbourne and 25-1 represents a fair bet.

Dandino 33-1* (16th August)

Simenon 25-1 Bet365