Doncaster Preview – Monday 11th May

Betcirca followers enjoyed a French Guineas double on Sunday with Make Believe (6-1) and Ervedya (15-8) as well as a 9.5 point profit on Sunday’s Premiership football. This week’s racing action will revolve around the Dante meeting at York which will hopefully shed some light on a very murky Epsom Derby picture.

The pick of Monday’s action comes from Doncaster with eight races starting at 2.10. The maiden race at 3.50 has brought together two very promising colts that finished runner-up on their racecourse debuts.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Mustaaqeem is a son of Dynaformer out of a Danzig mare and finished second in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket. That race didn’t look anything special this year but Mustaaqeem stuck on really well up the far rail and is a very imposing individual. His market rival is Druids Ridge, trained by John Gosden.

He made his debut Newbury where he was beaten a length by Sahaafy after making his challenge on the wide outside. That was a very commendable first effort and he travelled nicely for a long way. I’m just going for the Stoute colt because the stable’s runners usually improve significantly for the outing.

The feature race is a seven-furlong handicap at 4.25 with sixteen runners. The one that I like here is Shared Equity, trained by Jedd O’Keeffe and ridden by Graham Lee. He has won three of his seven starts including a win at Newcastle over this distance. He ran a great race when third in a six-furlong handicap at the Lincoln meeting and can reverse the form with runner-up Farlow.

Shared Equity was drawn on the far side that day and Lee tried to keep a bit up his sleeve for the final stages. He was chopped off in his run when passed by eventual winner Tatlisu but ran on again close home. The return to seven furlongs could see him returning to the winners’ enclosure.

We enjoyed a couple of big priced winners in three-year-old handicaps at Chester with Not Never (11-1) and Navigate (10-1). The 5.00 at Doncaster is another interesting handicap with some promising runners, notably the unbeaten Mulaaseq.

He is trained by Marcus Tregoning and came with a late run to beat Nortron by a short-head here on his debut. Paul Hanagan was looking after him in the closing stages and it looked for a long time as though he would finish a promising third or fourth. Once Hanagan got after him, he quickened really nicely and he could prove better than his rating of 80.

The one I fear most is the Ralph Beckett-trained Master Of Irony, a winner at Lingfield on the all-weather in December. He did everything wrong that day, starting slowly and running very wide on the bend into the straight. It was to his credit that he was still able to win quite comfortably and he is the obvious threat.

Mustaaqeem 3.50 @11-10 Betfair

Shared Equity 4.25 @5-1 Ladbrokes

Mulaaseq 5.00 @9-4 Betfair

£1 million up for grabs in Scoop6!

The popular Scoop6 could reach a pay-out of over £1 million on Saturday for the opening day of the new turf flat racing season. We’ve studied the form and come up with a couple of selection in each of the six races in the hope of helping some lucky punter towards the jackpot prize! A word of warning though…both the Spring Mile and the Lincoln Handicap are included.

Doncaster 2.35

The Cammidge Trophy looks a tricky opener for punters with a decent case to be made for nine of the eleven runners. Naadirr has to be included after some progressive form last season while there seems to be plenty of confidence behind Astaire in the betting market.

NAADIRR, ASTAIRE

Kempton 2.50

The Rosebery Handicap is a competitive event but there seems no reason to desert Godolphin’s New Year’s Day. He won with a bit in hand last time and is nicely drawn in stall 2. Saoi is weighted to get closer this time but I just prefer Latin Charm who looked progressive last winter for Marco Botti.

NEW YEAR’S DAY, LATIN CHARM

Doncaster 3.10

Punters finding the winner of the Spring Mile and the Lincoln Handicap are going to need a large slice of luck or psychic powers! Donny Rover is still fairly treated after ending last season with back-to-back victories while Boots And Spurs was second here two years ago and races off a lower mark.

DONNY ROVER, BOOTS AND SPURS

Kempton 3.25

Boomerang Bob looked to be coming back to form last time and should give us a good run for Charlie Hills. Perfect Pasture won well at Southwell last time but will need to break quickly from stall 10.

BOOMERANG BOB, PERFECT PASTURE

Chelmsford 3.30

The Scoop6 organisers haven’t done punters any favours by including this race. Dungannon was disappointing last time but lost his chance as the start. He could bounce back to form here with Zac Brown also capable of much better.

DUNGANNON, ZAC BROWN

Doncaster 3.45

The last four winners of the Lincoln have returned 16-1, 25-1 and 20-1 twice. That tells its own story but we have to keep the faith with our ante-post choices of Zarwaan and Gabrial’s Kaka. Good luck if you’re playing the Scoop6 this weekend!

ZARWAAN, GABRIAL’S KAKA

Totesport Scoop6

Doncaster Saturday Preview

The going looks likely to be good for Saturday’s Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster, the traditional curtain-raiser to the new turf flat season.

Our ante-post selections Zarwaan (12-1) and Gabrial’s Kaka (14-1) have both received favourable draws in 18 and 22 respectively. If you backed Buckstay, he missed the cut and runs in the Spring Mile instead but stakes will be returned.

Bookmakers are finding it hard to split Mange All, Zarwaan and Gm Hopkins and will be delighted if anything outside of these three passes the post in front. The Spring Mile may show whether or not the favoured high draw theory is correct and I am passing over Buckstay from stall 1 in that contest. The money has all been for Certificate here but this is a stiff test for such an inexperienced horse and it may be worth taking a chance with Donny Rover.

He ended last season with victories at Newmarket and Nottingham, both over ten furlongs. That may not seem the best preparation for a straight mile but he did win first time out over this trip. He is also racing off the same mark as his last start in October and will be staying on at the finish.

Tullius looks difficult to oppose in the Doncaster Mile but could still represent value if you can get close to even money. He was runner-up in the Lincoln last year but ended the season holding his own in Group 1 company. He was a fine second to Olympic Glory and fourth to Charm Spirit, both at Ascot. He probably prefers a bit of cut in the ground but there certainly won’t be any danger of fast ground at Town Moor.

Glory Awaits is something of an enigma having chased home Dawn Approach at 150-1 in the 2000 Guineas a couple of years ago. He hasn’t produced anything like that since and Baltic Knight will probably pose the biggest threat for Richard Hannon.

The Cammidge Trophy looks wide open and I’m siding with Naadirr who was tough and consistent last season for Marco Botti. He looks the type of horse to improve from three to four and can kick of the new campaign with a victory.

Aetna, Astaire and Heaven’s Guest are all capable of winning this on their best form but Naadirr looks good each-way value.

Tullius 2.00 @4-6 888Sport

Naadirr 2.35 @7-1 Boylesports

Donny Rover 3.10 @16-1 Stan James

Zarwaan @12-1 Ante-post

Gabrial’s Kaka @14-1 Ante-post

Lincoln Handicap – Ante-post Update

In last week’s Lincoln preview we recommended Zarwaan at 12-1 and he is now a top-priced 10-1 with Bet Victor.

Mange All and Gm Hopkins continue to dominate the market for William Haggas and John Gosden. Both stables have a fine record in the race so they should certainly give their supporters a run for their money. I don’t think that there can be much value left at odds of 11-2 and 7-1 respectively so I’ve been looking further down the weights in the hope of unearthing an each-way alternative.

With recent winners returned at 16-1, 25-1, 20-1 and 20-1, we know from experience that the market can get this race badly wrong. The draw is another factor to take into account, although that too is something of a mystery. Most pundits had satisfied themselves that a middle to high draw is ideal. Lo and behold, the winner Ocean Tempest emerged from stall 3 last season.

One horse that does catch my eye is Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Buckstay. I tipped him for last season’s Cambridgeshire and he ran a fine race to be fourth behind Bronze Angel. He is now a staggering 16lbs better off with the winner.

Maxime Guyon rode him that day and hit the front over a furlong from home before being swamped in the closing stages. He again clashed with Bronze Angel at Ascot in heavy ground in the Balmoral Handicap but the draw gave him no chance that day. He finished third on his side but was only ninth overall and that run can be safely ignored.

Buckstay has some form with cut in the ground but does not look as though he appreciates extremes of going. Cam Hardie has been booked for the ride and he takes off a handy 3lbs. With a massive 93 horses left in, Buckstay may not get a run from 33 in the handicap but we can take a bit of the 25-1 and get a refund if he is balloted out.

It looks as though Bronze Angel will carry top weight for Marcus Tregoning with Ocean Tempest just below him, attempting to repeat last year’s triumph. The three market leaders are safely in the top of the handicap and Richard Fahey hopes to run three including both Gabrial’s Kaka and Gabrial. It’s anybody’s guess how Gabrial will cope with this large field but Gabrial’s Kaka should go well. Fahey is optimistic about his chances and 14-1 represents fair value.

Zarwaan @12-1*

Buckstay @25-1 BetVictor (non-runner – no bet)

Gabrial’s Kaka @14-1 William Hill

*Ante-post

Lincoln Ante-Post Preview

With Cheltenham now behind us, Flat racing fans will be getting excited about the new turf season. Apparently Gleneagles has been catching pigeons at Ballydoyle and has been backed off the boards for the 2000 Guineas while the powers-that-be have been tinkering with the jockeys’ championship dates. Of more immediate interest is the Lincoln Handicap, the traditional cavalry charge at Town Moor.

There will be all of the usual debate about the draw and the going and the last four results makes you wonder whether or not it is wise to get involved. They have been 16-1, 25-1, 20-1 and 20-1. Prior to that there were two well-backed favourites in Expresso Star and Penitent. They were trained by John Gosden and William Haggas respectively so that is a good place to start.

At present, the Haggas-trained Mange All is 6-1 favourite with the Gosden-trained Gm Hopkins at 8-1. Mange All won a decent prize at Ascot in July when just getting up to beat American Hope by a neck. He ran a good race under a penalty next time when beaten by The Corsican and rounded off his three-year-old season by finishing fourth to Gm Hopkins in the Silver Cambridgeshire. He is 3lbs better off for three and three-quarter lengths with the winner.

Gm Hopkins was put up 9lbs for that win and was only fourth at York before finishing third at Nottingham off the same mark. Both trainers obviously know what they are doing but neither really appeals at single figure prices.

Ed Dunlop has an interesting contender in Zarwaan, a winner over six furlongs at Haydock in July and runner-up to Chatez in the Silver Bowl at the same course. He then ran a fine fifth of 30 in the Britannia at Royal Ascot before finishing fourth at Newmarket in a Listed race.

Last season we tipped Gabrial’s Kaka with trainer Richard Fahey quite bullish about his chances in the build-up to the race. He was there with every chance three furlongs out but faded back into sixth place. He won the Newbury Spring Cup next time out and had a crack at most of the big mile handicaps after that. He was badly drawn on his final start and now races off a 6lbs higher mark than last season.

Before rushing in on him, it is worth noting that he is also entered in the Irish Lincoln and is a possible for the Doncaster Mile. Just to confuse matters further, stable companion Gabrial also holds an entry her. He would be a blot on the handicap on his best form but he has been tried in everything except the boat race in recent seasons. He showed that he still retains his ability when winning at Leicester in October but he is still 11lbs lower than his previous best.

Mindurownbusiness and Belgian Bill are others worthy of note. The former did this column a favour when winning at Wolverhampton recently in the trial race and gets in here on a 2lbs lower mark. Belgian Bill has been running with great credit in Dubai but neither is proven on soft ground. Zarwaan gets a tentative vote at this stage.

Zarwaan @12-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Scoop6 could hit £400,000 on Saturday

The Tote have forecast a massive £400,000 Scoop6 jackpot this Saturday. With the Cheltenham festival almost upon us, the quality of the racing this weekend is not the greatest and winners may be difficult to find.

This Saturday’s Scoop 6 covers action from Doncaster, Lingfield and Newbury and syndicates are bound to busy burning the midnight oil to find the winning combination. Five of the races are live on Channel 4 and here is our guide to this week’s Scoop6.

Totesport Scoop6

Leg 1: 1:45 Newbury

A tough introduction with a sixteen-runner handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs. Very few of these are at the top of their game at present but Bothy has run some fine races around here in his time. Brian Ellison’s nine-year-old has Jamie Moore in the saddle and could go close while Winning Spark should be in the money after a couple of decent runs for Jackie Du Plessis.

Bothy

Winning Spark

Leg 2: 2:15 Newbury

Things do not get any easier in the next with thirteen veteran chasers lining up over three and a quarter miles. Several of these are familiar stayers that have seen better days including West End Rocker, a one-time Grand National fancy for Alan King. Soll looks to have a major chance for David Pipe after winning at Exeter last time while Ballyoliver is likely to plug on up the home straight.

Soll

Ballyoliver

Leg 3: 2:50 Newbury

Yet another Newbury handicap makes up leg three with nine lining up over two miles. First Mohican has been disappointing over hurdles so far but this looks a good opportunity for the formerly useful flat performer. Kiama Bay has been keeping better company and also has claims in a modest contest.

First Mohican

Kiama Bay

Leg 4: 2:55 Lingfield

The action switches to the all-weather at Lingfield and the one-mile Ladbrokes Handicap. Holiday Magic is sure to be popular after finishing a slightly unlucky fifth behind Baddilini in a much stronger heat last weekend. Halation could be sharper for his recent run here and David Simcock’s runners are always noting at this venue.

Holiday Magic

Halation

Leg 5: 3:25 Newbury

Back to Newbury for another very tricky race, the two and half-mile Greatwood Gold Cup. Sound Investment is not out of it despite shouldering top weight while the danger could come from the opposite end of the handicap in Saint Raph.

Sound Investment

Saint Raph

Leg 6: 3:45 Doncaster

If we are still standing by this stage it will be a minor miracle but the final leg is no easier than the previous five. The Grimthorpe Handicap Chase over three and a quarter miles has attracted twelve runners. Aachen only won a veterans race last time but this does not look that much better while Theatre Queen won’t mind the ground, providing she agrees to start!

Aachen

Theatre Queen