Tag: Dortmund

Benfica vs. Dortmund – Goal Fest on the Cards?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Champions League returns this Tuesday with a raft of exciting match-ups. While we have seen teams like Bayern and Arsenal play each other almost too frequently in recent years, this is the first time we have seen these two titans of European football coming together in a UEFA Champions League game. An intense, high-scoring game seems likely.

Dortmund

Despite a challenging ongoing domestic campaign, fourth in the Bundesliga, Dortmund were successful in powering through a group seemingly dominated by champions Real Madrid. A brace of 2:2 draws against the Spanish Giants, 14 goals in two games against Legia Warsaw and a double over Sporting Lisbon saw them top their group by away goal differential. Unlike some, Dortmund was actually rewarded for finishing top of their group with a draw against an opposition who they will feel they have every chance of progressing against.

Dortmund will again be looking to frontman Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to provide the impetus for a win against the Portuguese champions. With 15 goals 13 matches, Aubameyang is one of the form strikers currently playing in Europe; his combination of speed, strength and skill is proving to be all but unstoppable. Any chance of a result for Benfica will rely on their ability to frustrate him.

While Aubameyang will almost certainly start next Tuesday, Borussia will potentially have to deal with a number of key absences: Sven Bender, Lukasz Piszczek, Marco Reus, Marcel Schmelzer and Mario Gotze are all in doubt, while Nuri Sahin may be fit to make a return.

Benfica

Currently sitting top of Primeira Liga and looking to defend their title, Benfica has been enjoying some quality form this season. Unlucky to be pipped to top of Group B by Napoli in a group that could have gone any number of different ways, they will likely be thankful to not be facing Real Madrid, a prospect the Italians are no doubt relishing.

In squad with a number of established goal scorers and playmakers, Benfica will be looking to Konstantinos Mitroglou and Pizzi to provide the spark and ability needed to put their team past Dortmund’s quality. Benfica’s injury list is small, compared to Borussia, with Lisandro Lopez and Eduardo Salvio the only players in doubt for Tuesday.

The value

Picking apart the value here was always going to be a challenge, with no head to head data to speak of, and with erratic Dortmund so capable of both scoring and conceding with gusto. The Germans did, however, play Sporting twice in the group phase, winning both games 2:1. This gives us a slight idea how Dortmund fair against Portuguese opponents, although Benfica is a different animal to their bitter rivals.

While the instinct would be to predict goals here, the first leg of CL knockouts so often involves both teams playing conservatively, seeking each other out and trying to minimise the scoreline. Despite this, I think Dortmund will prioritise getting an away goal, potentially at the risk of conceding: BTTS is at 7/10 with Bet 365, Dortmund Win & BTTS/Yes at 10/3, and 5/1 for Benfica all seem like good value, depending on your view. Considering the injuries Dortmund may be facing, it could well be worth backing the slight underdogs at home.

 

Madrid To Win A Champions League Classic

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

IT’S a winner takes all clash at the Bernabéu on Wednesday night when Champions league holders Real Madrid host Borussia Dortmund in the Spanish capital.

The winner of this massive clash will top Group F and give themselves a huge advantage in the knock-out stages, and of all the final matches at the group stages, this one looks by some way the best.

Madrid is six points clear at the top of La Liga; the weekend draw with title rivals Barcelona was their 22nd match of the season still yet to taste a defeat, and I can’t see them losing this one.

Zinedine Zidane’s side are 1.91 favourites for the win with a whole host of bookies, and they are proving a very popular selection, but Dortmund arrive in good form and they aren’t to be underestimated.

The Bundesliga side has lost just once in the last 11 matches and they are 4.20 for the win.

In the 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture they were much the better side, and with them knowing that a draw will be enough for them to top the group, they may decide to come to Madrid for a point.

The draw is available at 4.00 but I can’t see that happening. If the visitors decide to defend, then it will play to the 11 times champions of Europe’s hands, and there is no better team capable of dealing with that threat than Madrid.

How’s It Going to End Up?

I think 1.91 is a good price on the home side, and even though record signing Gareth Bale is unavailable they still have the main man for the big occasion in Cristiano Ronaldo, plus I like the Portuguese superstar to open the goalscoring at the general 4.20.

If Madrid scores early it means that the game will open up and neutrals will be in for a real treat with two of the best attacking sides in the continent going all out on the attack, and both teams to score”yes” at 1.50 with Betfair Sportsbook does look a good thing.

Goals certainly look on the cards and this really could be one of the best games in the group stages, and at a huge 19.00, I am going to have a very small bet on Madrid to go one better than they did in Germany to win this 3-2 with William Hills.

Preakness Stakes Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

American Pharoah bids to follow up his Kentucky Derby victory in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.

Bob Baffert’s son of Pioneerof The Nile battled to a one-length success at Churchill Downs. He beat Firing Line with stable companion Dortmund two lengths away in third. Both horses take American Pharoah again here.

It is difficult to see what his rivals could do here to reverse the form. Dortmund was soon driven to the lead and was beaten entering the final furlong while Gary Stevens also gave Firing Line a forceful ride. The latter did not surrender with a fight and only went down inside the final 100 yards.

The bookmakers certainly don’t see a change in the outcome on Saturday with American Pharoah priced at 4-6, Firing Line at 4-1 and Dortmund at a top price of 6-1.  With only eight runners, the draw should not come into play and it was worth remembering that the favourite overcame a tough draw to win the Kentucky Derby.

Derby fifth Danzig Moon and the unplaced Mr Z are also in the field but are difficult to fancy and it will be surprising if the big three don’t battle this out. American Pharoah suffered an injury which ruled him out of the Breeders’ Cup last year so has done well to win three quick races this spring. He was not seriously tested to win Grade 2 and Grade 1 events at Oaklawn but was forced to pull out all the stops by Firing Line.

It all looks set up for an exciting re-match. The elusive American Triple Crown is his target this year and it looks as though Firing Line is going to push him all the way. It could even revive memories of Affirmed and his tremendous battles with Alydar back in 1978. The pair finished first and second in all three Triple Crown races.

The race is due off at 11.18 UK Time and can be viewed live on Racing UK.

Best UK odds

American Pharoah 8-11 Paddy Power

Dortmund 6-1 Stan James

Mr Z 50-1 Skybet

Danzig Moon 18-1 Paddy Power

Tale Of Verve 100-1 Bet365

Bodhisattva 66-1 Bet365

Divining Rod 20-1 Stan James

Firing Line 4-1 Stan James

Kentucky Derby Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Kentucky Derby is probably the most eagerly awaited race of the season in the United States. The first leg of the American Triple Crown could see a new star emerge and it is Bob Baffert who holds the aces with both first and second favourite.

American Pharoah was made hot favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last season only to miss the race through injury. He was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes in September and the third horse, Texas Red, went on to take the glory at Santa Anita.

He reappeared at Oaklawn in March and swept to an easy six and a quarter length victory followed by an effortless win in the Arkansas Derby. His stable companion Dortmund is an enormous colt by Big Brown and is unbeaten after six races. He got the better of Firing Line by a head in December and repeated the performance in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes. He made all to win by four and a quarter lengths last time in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and it will be interesting to see how he handles this big field.

Todd Pletcher runs three here with Breeders’ Cup runner-up Carpe Diem looking the most likely. He has won both of his races this season impressively, winning the Blue Grass Stakes by three lengths last time out. Stable companion Materiality is unbeaten after three races and showed good form to beat Upstart in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Firing Line won the Group 3 Sunland Derby last time out, a thoroughly deserved success after two fine tussles with the mighty Dortmund. He is priced at 12-1 under Gary Stevens while Baffert’s horse is around 7-2 so there could be some each-way value there.

Backing Meydan form here is something of a risk but Mick de Kock’s Mubtaahij could also be worth supporting at decent odds. The son of Dubawi was unlucky to be beaten in the UAE 2000 Guineas but made no mistake last time when bolting clear in the UAE Derby to win by eight lengths. Christophe Soumillon takes the ride on him.

This looks a really competitive renewal and there is bound to be a furious pace. The draw could be a concern for American Pharoah’s supporters but he looks a straight-forward ride and is the one to beat.

Tips

American Pharoah @3-1 Paddy Power

Mubtaahij @12-1 Ladbrokes (each-way)

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4