Rocky Creek’s task has been made easier on Saturday by the withdrawal of both Triolo D’Alene and Theatre Guide. I had my suspicions that Nicky Henderson would be reluctant to risk his Grand National hope on soft ground around here so our 5-2 bet is now in to 6-4. It’s still going to be a decent test for Rocky Creek but he should be up to the task.
The media love to chuck around phrases like “Super Saturday” and apparently that is what we are in for this weekend. It is probably more reasonable to describe it as Trial’s day with some serious Cheltenham hopes in action at both Cheltenham and Doncaster.
Paul Nicholls has runners all over the place, headed by Big Buck’s In the Cleeve Hurdle. The bookies have pushed the four-time World Hurdle winner out to even money to overcome his lengthy absence. The vibes have been good and hopefully he can extend his winning sequence to 19 but there is bound to be some anxiety in the Nicholls camp.
A better betting proposition is Double Ross in the handicap at 1.50. Nigel Twiston-Davies is not shy about his horses and I detect plenty of confidence in this one on Saturday. He laughed off a 7lbs increase last time to beat Cedre Bleu on a miserable wet day and is up another 8lbs here. Cedre Bleu has since finished second at Ascot after looking likely to win jumping the last. He seems a bit of a monkey to me and I don’t think he will turn the form around on the revised terms.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Nicholls chalk up five or six winners on Saturday. Vicenzo Mio won by 17 lengths at Kempton and could become a leading contender for the Triumph if he wins the opener. I’m not too sure what he beat that day but the Triumph market is strangely subdued for this late in January and needs a shot in the arm.
I followed Goodwood Mirage on the flat last season and he always looked like he would be better as a four-year-old. He was snapped up for a small fortune to go hurdling and won despite failing to jump the last two on his debut. It was quite an achievement to get up and win having stopped to a virtual standstill. If Jonjo has managed to teach him to hurdle fluently he will be a danger.
Nicholls also has a squeak with Dark Lover in the novices handicap chase. He looked set to win at Newbury recently but didn’t quite find the acceleration needed. Cheltenham brings out the best in him but I’m put off by his weight of 11st 10lb.
David Pipe has suffered a couple of setbacks with incredibly bad runs from Dynaste (King George) and The Liquidator (Tolworth). He will be hoping that Red Sherlock does not fluff his lines tomorrow when he goes for win number 6. I have a feeling that he may have to play second fiddle to the Irish raider Rathvinden who was not done with when falling at Warwick. The race was won by Deputy Dan and that’s pretty smart form.
1.50 Double Ross at 7-2 William Hill
2.25 Rocky Creek at 5-2 ante-post
3.00 Rathvinden at 9-4 Totesport, Betfred
